the latest...

**There have been a few very light rain showers in the area early this Thursday morning. Temperatures remain extremely mild -- near 62ºF/17ºC at sunrise...

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

transformations... (pm.22.mar.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 70.2F (21.2C)
Precipitation: none

Another day of significant warming, and now we have to go all the way back to the 16th of October to find a temp that was warmer than today's.  Finally we have broken above 70ºF/21ºC, and also, finally, we have risen slightly above normal for the date, after spending most of the month of March below normal... and sometimes shockingly colder than normal.  There were some pretty major stretches of nice sunshine in the midst of the clouds today, and that allowed temps to rise higher than expected.  No complaints.  This evening it is mostly cloudy and hazy, but still very mild and comfortable.

A ripple of energy in the upper-atmosphere, accompanied by some slight cooling aloft, is heading into Himalayan north India right now, and will bring us a spell of unstable conditions overnight into perhaps the first half of Friday.  With this warm and marginally moist atmosphere in the lower levels, the incoming disturbance could stir up some widely scattered shower and thundershower activity as it sweeps through -- with the best chance of some rain expected late tonight through late tomorrow (Thu) night.  I don't think there will be anything too dramatic, but that shower/thunder chance exists nonetheless.

Stabilization will kick in again gradually on Friday, with quiet weather expected for the most part all the way through at least the first half of next week.  Along with generally stable conditions, temperatures will climb higher and higher.  We should be well above normal by Monday and Tuesday... from one extreme to the other this month.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

warmest since november... (pm.21.mar.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
High temp: 65.7F (18.7C)
Precipitation: none

November 9th, 2016 -- Results of the U.S. election were coming in, and word was spreading that our 500 and 1000 rupee notes were suddenly worthless.  Remember that day??  That was the last time temperatures here in McLeod Ganj were warmer than they were today... nearly four and a half months ago.  We did get those high clouds today, but the sunshine didn't really get challenged significantly until around noon, allowing temps to warm up almost exactly as expected.  Now we're only about 2ºF/1ºC cooler than normal for this stage of March, which is quite an achievement considering where we've been during the last couple of weeks.

The weather pattern has evolved absolutely according to plan the last several days, as the first genuinely warm/hot air mass of the season finally starts to take hold across the plains of north India to our south.  We're on the northern fringes of that significant warming, with the general temperature trend over the coming week or so expected to continue to be an upward one.

There are issues to watch, however.  Already there are a couple of minor upper-level disturbances trying to crash into this ridge of high pressure, drifting in from the west, and that's going to introduce the next chance of some scattered shower/thunder action during the coming 24 hours.  Rainfall shouldn't be long-lasting or widespread, but keep in mind the thundershower risk, mainly between Wednesday evening and late Thursday night.  Then... our atmosphere should stabilize again, with additional warming expected over the weekend into next week.

Monday, March 20, 2017

temps approaching normal... (pm.20.mar.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
High temp: 64.4F (18.0C)
Precipitation: none

The vernal equinox occurred at 3:58pm IST today, and that's the moment when the direct rays of the sun crossed the equator, heading into the northern hemisphere for the next six months of the year.  We call it the official first day of spring, meteorologically, and the weather here in our little corner of the world cooperated nicely.  It was about 24ºF/13ºC WARMER today than it was just nine days ago, on the 11th of March, when we had snow showers on and off all day.  Quite a dramatic and welcome change.  Apart from occasional thin, high clouds, and just some feeble cumulus development over the mountains this afternoon, it's been a mostly sunny Monday.

But a view to the west and a check of satellite pics shows a lot of high cloudiness heading in our direction, which we are going to have to contend with as the rest of this week unfolds.  The mildest/warmest air mass of the season is still on its way in, but as we've been discussing, the cloudiness will likely prevent us from maximizing the ground-truth warming potential during the next two or three days.  Still, it will be much milder than it was just last week, and closer to normal for the latter part of March.

A few weak disturbances smashing into this new ridge of high pressure will also introduce the next risk of some isolated to scattered shower/thunder development... as early as Wednesday evening, but a bit more likely on Thursday into Thursday night.  After that, things should stabilize again, with further warming on the way over the weekend into early next week.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

trending into spring... (pm.19.mar.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
High temp: 62.6F (17.0C)
Precipitation: trace

Our sky is clearing out again this evening at sunset, after our little bout of thundershowers during the latter half of the afternoon.  There was not enough rain to register a measurement at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center, but there was a lot of thunder between about 2:30 and 4:00pm, as those thundershowers lurked just up-mountain.  Before all that, we had abundant sunshine, with temperatures climbing higher than expected -- just shy of the warmest of the season and the year thus far.

Warmer air throughout all layers and levels of the atmosphere is poised to begin flowing into our area during the next 12-24 hours, as a ridge of high pressure pokes northeastward into the Indian subcontinent.  Not only here, but across most of central and northern India, temperatures will be higher than we've seen so far this season, and it's likely that we'll finally rise back to normal and even slightly above as we move into the final one-third of March.  Tomorrow is the vernal equinox, which, meteorologically speaking, marks the first official day of spring in the northern hemisphere... so the timing is good.

There are some serious concerns about high cloudiness developing and flowing along the north side of this incoming ridge of high pressure... especially by Tuesday into Wednesday.  That could keep temps from reaching their full warming potential, even though we'll be in a much more comfortable zone than we've been able to enjoy in the last 12 days or so.  There is also a decent chance of some thundershowers sometime between Wednesday night and early Friday morning.

Check tabs above for historical normals/averages, and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.