the latest...

**Humidity has dropped all the way down to 29% this Saturday morning -- the lowest it's been since May.

Friday, October 21, 2016

quiet weekend ahead... (pm.21.oct.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 57.2F (14.0C)
High temp: 69.1F (20.6C)
Rainfall: none

At dusk, it is 100% clear, here at the end of a very fine mid-October day.  Sunshine has been abundant, in spite of the cloud development over the mountains which got going around the noon hour.  Those clouds dissipated quite early, with a return to mostly clear skies in all directions right around sunset.  My low temp this morning was the coolest of the month, by just 0.2ºF, with the high temp very close to where it was yesterday.  The humidity didn't fluctuate much at all today -- remaining in the 44-49% range.

For the last several days we've had a slight chance of a shower or thundershower in the forecast for today -- as an upper-level disturbance zipped across the western Himalayas.  There could have been some kind of isolated activity in the very highest elevations, but there was no evidence of rain here, and that makes 10 DAYS IN A ROW without a drop.  Since our huge dumping of tropical rains back on the 1st and 2nd of the month, I've only recorded 0.12" (3mm), so it has rapidly turned into a very dry stretch of weather we're dealing with.

A typically fast-moving west-northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere will prevail from central Asia into the western and central Himalayan region during the coming several days.  Combined with an air mass that is devoid of significant moisture, that spells an inactive, dry and pleasantly cool pattern for us.  Models are showing the slightest hints of some shower potential on Tuesday as a little wiggle of energy passes through, but I don't expect it to amount to much, if anything at all.

You can find all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

only minor issues... (pm.20.oct.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 69.0F (20.6C)
Rainfall: none

This morning's low again tied the low temp for this autumn sesason, while the afternoon high temp was the coolest for the month of October -- so that very slow and gradual downward slide continues.  In spite of the slightly cooler temperatures, we actually had a greater proportion of sunshine today than on just about any other day of the month, and average humidity was quite low -- at 47%.

We are watching some fairly potent upper-level energy racing across the western Himalayas this evening, in association with a circulation containing the coldest air of the new season way up in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  Satellite pics this evening are showing quite a bit of cloudiness to our northwest, with even some scattered shower/thundershower activity from northern Pakistan into extreme northern Kashmir.  Models continue to keep that shower/thunder development well to our north through tomorrow, but it's not a bad idea to keep the slight chance of some kind of shower action in our forecast into tomorrow (Fri) afternoon.

As we've been discussing for many days now, the very slow and gradual and incremental drop in temperatures should continue -- basically all the way through the final 10-11 days of the month.  Evidence of any significant storm systems continues to be absent, even as we cross into November.

Check out tabs above for forecast and other info...

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

a dry regime... (pm.19.oct.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
High temp: 69.6F (20.9C)
Rainfall: none

This morning's low temp equalled the coolest of the month, while the afternoon high was one of the coolest I've recorded this autumn season.  We're still running a couple of degrees above the norm, but the trend has been generally, though slowly, downward the last few days.  This evening there are quite a few clouds lingering along the front slopes of the mountains, but it is fair and hazy to the south and southwest -- after yet another day of bright morning sunshine yielding to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon.

It's the dry season in Himachal Pradesh, and the ground truth attests to that.  We've now had eight days in a row without a drop of rain, and it's looking like there may be plenty more rainless days to come.  We've been talking about the potential for at least a random shower on Friday, but recent model runs have been almost wiping out that potential, due to very little moisture availability, and the majority of the upper-level dynamic energy remaining to our north.  Still, the west-northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen during the coming several days, with cooler and cooler air arriving in the higher levels of the atmosphere -- which could create some isolated pockets of instability tomorrow through Friday.  At least it's something to watch during otherwise boring weather times.

I don't think we'll see a dramatic plunge in temperatures during the coming week, but our daily average temps should continue to trend lower, by fractions of degrees, as the days get shorter and central Asian air slowly progresses southward.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above, with other info and stats available on other tabs as well.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

temperatures slipping... (pm.18.oct.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 69.5F (20.8C)
Rainfall: none

It's very hazy late this evening as dusk leaves us, with only a few lingering, dissipating clouds along the mountain peaks.  As per the recent formula, we had pretty much full sunshine throughout the morning, with cloud development along the mountain slopes starting around noon -- leaving us with partly cloudy skies throughout the afternoon hours.  Humidity dipped as low as 37% around 9:00am at my recording location, but was back up to 55-56% by mid-afternoon.

The most autumn-like central Asian air mass of the season is starting to seep into Himalayan north India, as the upper-level flow strengthens from the west-northwest.  Temperatures aloft -- mainly above 12,000ft (3700m) -- will be cooling considerably during the coming 48-72 hours or so, and we should see slighter cooler temps here at our elevation as well during the coming few days.  Models are showing a wave of moderate instability passing well to our north between tomorrow (Wed) afternoon and Friday evening, but as of now, there's only some very minor precipitation development showing up on the charts here in our immediate area on Friday.  In that case, we'll keep the risk of a passing shower or thundershower in the forecast for Friday, with still a few days to keep an eye on how things evolve.

Quiet, seasonably cool and dry late October weather is expected again thereafter, with no other disturbances expected to affect us until perhaps the last day or two of the month.

All the forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, located along the top of the page.