the latest...

**We've had off and on rain showers since about 4:00pm (Tue), most of it of the light to moderate variety. There has been a bit of sleet and snow mixed in as of 6:20pm...

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

this active january... (pm.17.jan.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 37.2F (2.9C)
High temp: 44.1F (6.7C)
Precipitation: 0.26" (7mm)
Snowfall: trace

Our upper atmosphere is still plagued with some weak disturbances, rotating around a very cold pool of air to our northwest.  This has set off more areas of rain and snow showers all across the western Himalayas today, and we had our share in that late this afternoon and evening.  The precipitation total as of late this evening has been on the light side, as we were expecting, but adds to a January tally that is already well above normal.

It looks like we wont be able to break into a long-term stable type of pattern during the next couple of weeks, but there are indications that we'll see at least a moderate warming trend starting on Thursday, and continuing through the weekend.  After that, we could be dealing with a very stormy mid-winter scenario by the middle of next week -- if extended range models have any kind of clue at all.

Monday, January 16, 2017

unstable and variable... (pm.16.jan.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 33.8F (1.0C)
High temp: 42.3F (5.7C)
Precipitation (melted): 0.76" (1.9cm)
Storm total precip (melted): 0.89" (2.3cm)
Snowfall: 0.6" (1.5cm)

This latest rain and snow event of the past 24 hours has now pushed us well above normal for precipitation for the month of January -- with 15 days to go.  This has been very good news, with a very healthy snowpack now established in the mountains above.  It's been quite a turn of events following our nearly bone dry weather of the fall and early winter seasons.

The pattern is looking changeable and potentially active all the way through the end of the month, with a few more chances of measurable rain and snowfall.  Temperatures should moderate a bit by Thursday and Friday -- and we could have the mildest weather since the first couple of days of the new year by this weekend.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for forecast details.

wet/white monday... (am.16.jan.17)>

There has been a rapid changeover from rain to snow at my location up here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center (shortly after 7:00am).  As we know from last weekend, and many times before, we'll have to see if this is temporary, or a sign of what's to come during the next several hours.

My rain gauge shows 0.73" (1.9cm) of precipitation since last evening around 8:30pm when the first showers appeared, and 0.59" (1.5cm) of that amount has occurred since midnight.

The circulation of our storm system is centered just west-southwest of Srinagar early this morning, with very cold air wrapped into it now, and a good flow of moisture being pulled northward ahead of it.  The best chances for periods of rain and snow will continue until early to mid-afternoon...

Sunday, January 15, 2017

on the verge... (pm.15.jan.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 37.9F (3.3C)
High temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
Precipitation: 0.14" (4mm) 
*stats updated thru midnight

*Update @ 9:45pm... Temp down to 37.9ºC/3.3ºC, and we have light rain in progress.

*Update @ 8:48pm... And now I have light rain.  Temp is 42.6ºF/5.9ºC.

*Update @ 8:30pm... The circulation center of our incoming storm system is located just barely northwest of Multan, in central Pakistan, as of 8:00pm.  A couple of bands of precipitation have developed just east of the center of that low pressure circulation, the first of which is just pushing into western Himachal Pradesh, according to satellite pics.  Although there have already been periods of snow showers higher up in the mountains this afternoon and evening, we should get our first rain showers here at our elevation before midnight.