the latest...

**It's been a while since we've had totally clear skies at sunrise, but that's the story early on this Friday morning. The temp is near 64ºF/18ºC.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

thursday evening (30sep)>

patches of clouds and fog are lingering just before sunset this evening.  we had quite a bit more sunshine today than yesterday, but there was also some rumbling thunder over the dhauladar range late this afternoon.  today's high temp was 21C/70F in upper mcleod ganj.

still no major changes to report... our basic pattern of morning sunshine followed by afternoon/evening clouds will continue for the next several days.  the only break from the norm will be a couple of weak upper-air disturbances in the northwest flow which will be drifting through the area.  the exact timing is very hard to precisely pin down... but we could see a slightly better chance of some random, isolated thundershowers during the afternoon and evening hours.  right now, i'd say sunday and tuesday might be most susceptible... but honestly, chances will be pretty slim.  temperatures will remain fairly consistent... with no dramatic deviations from what we've seen/felt during the past week or so...

THURSDAY NIGHT: patchy clouds and fog during the evening... then becoming mostly clear after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: sunny in the morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny AM, with partly to mostly cloudy skies PM.  slight chance of an afternoon thundershower over the mountains.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies with a random PM thundershower possible.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny with a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies... a thundershower or two possible.
high: 20C (68F)

thursday morning (30sep)>

it's another totally clear and calm early morning here in mcleod ganj.  the temp is a cool 14C/58F.

i think we've all memorized the routine... sunshine until the late morning, increasing clouds into the afternoon, with some periods of thick clouds and fog in the evening before sunset.  i see nothing moving our way that will disrupt that pattern.  high pressure remains anchored at the surface over rajasthan, while a flow of west-northwesterly winds prevails in the upper atmosphere.  as i've mentioned... there is still a good deal of latent moisture in the air which blossoms into clouds as soon as the sun has had an opportunity to heat things up during the morning hours.  it will take a potent blast of very dry air from the northwest to completely sweep this moisture out of here... but i don't see any evidence of that in the near future.  we may see a slight increase in shower potential by early next week, as a couple of upper-air disturbances drift through.  meanwhile, expect temperatures to fluctuate very little from day to day...

check the tabs at the top of the page for a north india summary, a brief look at monsoon stats, and some general monthly weather information for the coming winter season...

THURSDAY: lots of morning sun.  increasing clouds around noon... with mostly cloudy skies PM.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: clouds and a bit of fog in the evening will give way to clear skies after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: sunny in the morning, partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: plenty of morning sun, followed by afternoon clouds.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with an afternoon shower or thundershower possible.
high: 20C (68F)

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

wednesday evening (29sep)>

totally cloudy and foggy just before sunset this evening.  once again, we had sunshine in the morning, a mix of sun and clouds during the mid-day, and then lots of clouds and some fog after about 330-400pm.  today's high temp in upper mcleod ganj was a cooler-than-expected 19.6C/67.3F.

today is the 5th day in a row without measurable rain here in mcleod ganj (and across most of himachal pradesh)... so the india met department has indeed declared the official withdrawal of the monsoon.  the last time we had 5 days back-to-back without measurable rain was 12-16 may, believe it or not!  looking ahead... there is nothing new to report.  an upper-level disturbance is moving into kashmir at the moment, but should remain far enough north of us to prevent any showers here.  we will continue to see sunny mornings, with variable amounts of afternoon clouds and a bit of fog... right into early next week.  there is at least a mentionable chance of a shower or two sunday and/or monday, but nothing very significant.  temperatures have been slightly cooler than i've been forecasting, so i will shave those down a little...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog this evening will give way to mostly clear skies after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: sunshine in the morning, with periods of clouds and a bit of fog in the PM.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: morning sun followed by afternoon clouds.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny, with a chance of a shower during the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: some sun, with periods of clouds as well.  chance of a shower or two in the PM.
high: 20C (68F)

wednesday morning (29sep)>

clear skies... a cool 14.5C/58F just before sunrise.  satellite photos show no cloudiness across north india again this morning... the only exception being the extreme northwest corner of jammu & kashmir, where a weak upper-level disturbance is spinning.

although we still had a period of gloomy clouds for a few hours yesterday afternoon, you may have noticed that the cloud bases are not quite as low... meaning there was less fog to contend with.  that may be a minor consolation, but a sign that we are slowly and steadily getting rid of the lingering moisture in the air.  until we get a nice blast of dry central asian air, i don't think we will see any of those famous totally cloudless autumn days around here.  so... get used to the morning sun and afternoon clouds... because it looks like this pattern will stick with us for a while.  i am not mentioning any rain chances in the forecast until sunday, but keep in mind that during the afternoons, there is always a risk of an isolated shower popping up somewhere over the mountains.

by the way, in case you're counting... today will be 5 days in a row without measurable rain... which means the india met department can finally declare an official monsoon withdrawal here... (unless we get a freak shower to spoil it!)

WEDNESDAY: sunshine this morning will give way to some clouds from mid-day through the afternoon hours.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: some evening cloudiness... then becoming mostly clear after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning, partly to mostly cloudy in the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny with a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 22C (71F)

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

tuesday evening (28sep)>

clouds are beginning to break up already this evening, after a mostly cloudy afternoon.  we had some nice sunshine during the morning, but a few hours of thick cloud cover dominated from mid-day into the late afternoon.  today's high temp in upper mcleod ganj was only 20.5C/69F.

satellite pics this evening show the same story of the past few days... narrow lines of clouds continue to cling to the front ranges of the mountains all the way from kashmir, through himachal pradesh and uttar anchal, into nepal.  no significant rainfall is occurring anywhere, but there is just enough moisture in the air to respond to the morning sunshine, rise upslope, and condense into clouds and a bit of fog by the afternoon hours.  wall-to-wall sunshine graces the rest of northern india. no serious changes are on the horizon during the next several days.  there should be a lessening of the afternoon cloudiness, but i don't see a dramatic push of bone-dry central asian air strong enough to sweep this lingering moisture completely out of here.  anyway...enjoy the morning sun, and the pleasant early fall temps while they last...

TUESDAY NIGHT: evening clouds... then becoming clear after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of morning sunshine, with partly to mostly cloudy skies after noon.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: a sunny morning, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and mild.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: sunny AM, partly sunny PM.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: more of the same... morning sun with some afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (71F)

tuesday morning (28sep)>

i am sitting on the far corner of my rooftop this morning, trying desperately to cling to a weak wireless signal... so this will be short.  we have clear skies this morning with a temperature of 15C/60F.

no changes to report... satellite pics and new computer guidance is pointing to a continuation of the nice weather we had yesterday.  drier air filtering in should continue to eat away at the afternoon clouds and fog,  allowing sunshine to take over more and more hours of the day.  there is still that outside chance of a brief shower developing somewhere over the mountains during the mid-afternoon hours, but other than that, rain chances will be pretty much NIL for the next several days.  temperatures will remain mild.

TUESDAY: sunny this morning, with partly cloudy skies and a bit of fog during the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: any clouds or fog in the evening will give way to clear skies after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of sunshine in the morning, with occasional afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies... pleasantly mild.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: just a slight chance of a brief afternoon shower, otherwise partly to mostly sunny.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 22C (72F)

Monday, September 27, 2010

monday evening (27sep)>

finally... a gorgeous evening in progress, with only a few patches of clouds and some light fog around.  we had more sunshine today than we've had in weeks... along with a high temperature in upper mcleod ganj of 21.7C/71F.

it was very nice to see much less in the way of afternoon gloom today... evidence of the gradually, progressively drier air seeping into the area.  we should continue to see the atmosphere dry out a little more, day by day, as a fairly typical late september / early october pattern prevails from central asia into the northern half of india.  when the monsoon decided to withdraw, it REALLY withdrew... all the way to the southern half of india, in fact.

temperatures will remain very pleasant for the next several days.  there is no sign yet of the first surge of colder air of the season crossing the himalayas, so we'll continue to enjoy comfortably cool evenings and early mornings, followed by mild late mornings and afternoons...

MONDAY NIGHT: a few clouds and some light fog this evening, then becoming mostly clear after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

TUESDAY: lots of morning sun, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.  pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: more morning sunshine... followed by a few afternoon clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies, with a slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: sunshine, along with a few afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

monday morning (27sep)>

skies are totally clear just before sunrise this morning, with a temperature of 15.5C/60F

satellite pics this morning show absolutely clear skies from afghanistan and pakistan through northern india and nepal.  the upper-air pattern will remain virtually unchanged for the next 4 days or so... with winds aloft blowing from the west-northwest.  that will keep us in a quiet weather pattern, with little fluctuation in temperatures.  our only "fly in the ointment" will continue to be the build-up of clouds and fog during the afternoon and evening hours.  as the sunshine heats up the lower atmosphere during the mornings, the air begins to rise from the valleys up the slopes of the mountains... that causes all the leftover moisture to condense out in the form of clouds and fog.  as we saw yesterday afternoon, there is even a chance of a stray/random bit of thunder, or a brief shower over the mountains.  but... as the sun goes down and the heating stops, the clouds and fog will quickly disappear.  anyway, we'll have to wait a while longer to dry out enough for this daily cycle of PM clouds and fog to come to an end...

MONDAY: lots of morning sunshine.  increasing clouds and fog by mid-day, through the PM hours.  some thunder, or a brief shower possible.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY NIGHT: evening clouds and fog quickly giving way to clear skies.
low: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: morning sun, with some periods of afternoon clouds and fog.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny AM, partly cloudy PM.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies, with a little better chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

Sunday, September 26, 2010

sunday evening (26sep)>

we are surrounded by clouds and fog again this evening... after lots of morning sun and a mix of sun, clouds and fog during the afternoon.  we even had a few rumbles of thunder between 100 and 330pm, which got me a little worried..!  our high temp today at the wxgeek office was 21C/70F.

i keep expecting to see a decrease in the amount of clouds and fog during the mid-afternoon through the evening hours... and am a bit surprised that this lingering moisture is still clinging to the mountains.  satellite photos show just very narrow strips of clouds and fog riding the front ranges of the himalayas from kashmir through himachal pradesh and uttar anchal.  but, despite these conditions, only very isolated and brief thundershowers have been able to develop.  of course the gloom will lift right after sunset, leaving us with mostly clear skies overnight, and another sunny start tomorrow.  reload and repeat the above formula the next few days.  i still think the PM clouds and fog should gradually relent as we head through the week... but we'll just have to keep tabs on it day by day.  at any rate, other than an isolated, brief shower, rainfall is unlikely right through the end of the coming week...

SUNDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog will give way to mostly clear skies after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: lots of morning sun, followed by an increase of clouds and some patches of fog during the afternoon and evening. 
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy with a bit of fog in the PM.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: more of the same.... morning sun with some clouds and a bit of fog PM.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: pleasant temps, partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 23C (73F)

sunday morning (26sep)>

there is not one cloud to be found in this morning's pre-sunrise sky... with a current temperature of 15.5C/60Frainfall has been very light and spotty for the last 3 days, but our totals for the month of september are as follows:
-near the main temple... 16.8" (42.7cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 15.75" (40cm)

we we have definitely "turned the corner" with regard to the monsoon season of 2010.  although we're still getting some periods of clouds and fog during the afternoon and evening hours, the deep tropical moisture has been pushed well to our south and east, and the atmosphere is stabilizing day by day.  with west-northwesterly winds in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere, a large area of high pressure will continue to become established over rajasthan and gujarat... that will effectively BLOCK the return of the juicy tropical air.  our morning sunshine will continue to be interrupted by PM clouds and fog... due to all the moisture being evaporated out of the moist ground and carried uphill... but even that will become less of a factor in the coming days.  temperatures will stay right in the middle of the comfort zone!

**UPDATE @ 300PM** thunder is rumbling off and on this afternoon, in between peeks of sunshine.  will add a chance of a brief thundershower to this afternoon's forecast...**

SUNDAY: lots of morning sun... with periods of clouds and a bit of fog in the afternoon.  random thundershowers in the area....
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: any clouds and fog in the evening will give way to clear skies around sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies... still dry and mild.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: sun, with a few afternoon clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: dry weather continues... with a mix of sun and a few clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

Saturday, September 25, 2010

saturday evening (25sep)>

it was great to see tons o' sun this morning... but the clouds and fog were on the increase in the afternoon. now, just prior to sunset, the clouds and fog are attempting to disperse.  there were a few random sprinkles during the late afternoon, but not enough to measure.  today's high temp was 21.2C/70F.

satellite pics this evening show clouds and a few showers along the front ranges of the himalayas, but otherwise, skies are generally clear across most of the northwest half of india.  what a difference a few days makes!  the deep monsoon moisture has been pushed all the way down to central uttar pradesh, and is likely NOT to return this far north and westward this year.  for us, that means we should continue to enjoy incremental improvements to our weather, day by day.  although mountain terrain is fickle, sometimes producing afternoon showers with little advance notice, there are no "organized" rain-makers expected during the next several days... the clouds and fog will continue to thin out, and humidity will edge lower and lower.  temperatures will stay pretty close to where they are... coolish in the early mornings, but pleasantly mild during the mid-day hours.

SATURDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog will disappear after sunset... becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine in the morning... with periods of clouds and a bit of fog during the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun and occasional clouds.  comfortable temps.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: sunshine mixed with a few periods of clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

saturday morning (25sep)>

the sky is 99% clear before sunrise here in upper mcleod ganj... with a temperature of 14C/57F.  there was no additional rainfall overnight, which leaves the 24 hour total at just 0.05" (1mm).

well wonder of wonders... our good friends in delhi at the india meteorological department have said that "conditions are now favorable for the withdrawal of the monsoon from northwest india".  that is a good confirmation of what we've been anticipating for the past several days.  things are looking progressively brighter, as a brisk west-northwesterly upper-air flow establishes itself across the area... which will cause a strong area of high pressure to develop at the surface, over rajasthan.  already, most of the deep monsoon moisture has been swept out, but over the next few days, drier and more stable air will begin to dominate.  as i've mentioned several times... we need 5 days in a row without measurable rain to get an "official" declaration of monsoon withdrawal... but until that happens, we can certainly enjoy the fruits of this welcome transition...

SATURDAY: mostly sunny this morning, but becoming mostly cloudy with some lingering fog possible in the afternoon.  just a small chance of a brief PM shower.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: an isolated evening shower possible, otherwise becoming mostly clear.
low: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: sunny in the morning, then a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon.  pleasant temps.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: some afternoon clouds, otherwise plenty of sunshine.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine.  dry and mild.
high: 22C (72F)

Friday, September 24, 2010

MONSOON 2010 'top ten'...

during the past three months, i've been keeping a running total of one week rainfall totals.  that means, every day, i have added up the total rainfall for the previous seven days.  here are the TOP TEN wettest '7-day periods' since the beginning of july...  these statistics are based on rainfall measurements taken in upper mcleod ganj, just below tushita and the mountaineering center.

1) 16-22 AUGUST... 15.31" (38.9cm)
2) 14-20 AUGUST... 12.37" (31.4cm)
3) 12-18 AUGUST... 12.29" (31.2cm)
4) 15-21 AUGUST... 12.26" (31.1cm)
5) 17-23 AUGUST... 12.26" (31.1cm)
6) 18-24 AUGUST... 12.09" (30.7cm)
7) 31 JULY - 6 AUGUST... 11.65" (29.6cm)
8) 10-16 AUGUST... 11.30" (28.7cm)
9) 29 JULY - 4 AUGUST... 11.23" (28.5cm)
10) 11-17 AUGUST... 11.07" (28.1cm)

it is very clear to see that the peak of the monsoon season this year occurred between the 29th of july and the 24th of august, with mid-august being the climax of the entire season.  more monsoon stats are yet to come...  your most recent forecast is below>>

friday evening (24sep)>

skies are mostly cloudy this evening, with some patches of fog passing in and out.  we had some nice periods of sun today, but also some clouds, fog, thunder, and brief showers.  i measured just 0.05" (1mm) of rain, along with a high temp of 19.5C/67F.

well... it's obvious from the fog this evening that the monsoon moisture hasn't been completely swept out of here.  but... the process is in motion, thanks to a gradual shift to westerly winds which has already begun aloft, and will transfer down to the surface over the weekend.  there is still a shower/thundershower risk tonight, but it looks like rain chances will decrease to near zero thereafter.  of course, according to the india met department, we must have 5 days in a row without measurable rain in order to declare an official END to the monsoon, but that is looking like a mere technicality at this point.  trekkers, campers, picnickers and outdoor enthusiasts of any kind can finally start enjoying the change of seasons...

FRIDAY NIGHT: chance of a thundershower (especially before midnight), otherwise gradually clearing skies.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies, with just a slight chance of a brief PM shower.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny... dry and pleasant.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.  comfortable temps.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny... still nice!
high: 22C (72F)

friday morning (24sep)>

skies are mostly cloudy early this morning...with a few rumbles of thunder.  we've had some sprinkles and very light showers during the wee hours of the morning, but nothing measurable.  the current pre-sunrise temperature is a cool 14C/58F.

a wave of energy in the upper atmosphere is passing through this morning, and is trying to stir up some thundershowers.  there is still enough moisture around to possibly fuel a round of showers or thundershowers today, but as the jetstream shifts to more of a west-northwesterly flow during the next 12-24 hours, any lingering monsoon moisture is going to be chased out.  a strong area of surface high pressure is already beginning to build over western rajasthan, which will contribute to our improving weather conditions. expect increasing amounts of sunshine from the weekend into the middle of next week, along with a disappearance of the fog we've all grown to love so much during the past 10-12 weeks.!

FRIDAY: still a risk of scattered thundershowers today... with a mix of clouds, sun, and perhaps some lingering fog at times.
high: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: chance of an evening shower/thundershower, then becoming mostly clear and cool.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few periods of clouds.  dry and pleasant!
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: sunny in the morning... a few afternoon clouds. 
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: plenty of sun... pleasant temperatures.
high: 22C (72F)

Thursday, September 23, 2010

thursday evening (23sep)>

the sun has been trying desperately to peek through the clouds and fog since late this afternoon, but hasn't been entirely successful.  we only had a bit of drizzle and a couple of very light rain showers earlier today, but significant rains have failed to materialize... the high temp today in upper mcleod ganj was 18C/64.4F

have been surprised that we haven't had much rain today, since conditions have been in place for another round or two of heavy showers.  current satellite pics show very little happening across northern india at the moment, despite lingering moisture and an unstable airmass.  the computer model guidance says that there is still a decent shot at rain and thunderstorm development overnight... so although i am starting to get skeptical, it would be wise to maintain the possibility.  but, starting tomorrow, our monsoon will be loosening its grip for this season.  from this weekend into the middle of next week, an area of high pressure at the surface will begin to build and strengthen over rajasthan and gujarat.  at the same time, winds in the upper atmosphere will begin to blow briskly from the west and northwest.  this is a recipe for dramatic drying... which should gradually chase away the rain, clouds and fog... and lower the humidity for the long term.

THURSDAY NIGHT: still a chance of a few showers and thundershowers moving through... otherwise partly cloudy with occasional fog.
low: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and a bit of fog.  chance of a brief shower or two.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies, dry and pleasant.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: sunshine, with a few periods of mainly afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: plenty of sun, along with comfortable temps.
high: 22C (72F)

thursday morning (23sep)>

we have mostly cloudy skies and 14C/58F just before sunrise this morning.  a few showers overnight have raised our rainfall total to 0.88" (2.2cm) in the past 24 hours.

the autumnal equinox (the direct rays of the sun pass across the equator, on the way to the southern hemisphere) happens at 839am IST today.  traditionally, that means the first day of "fall" in the northern hemisphere.

this morning's satellite photos show a lot of cloudiness across northern india, but last evening's large area of rain has completely fizzled out.  the moisture remains... and the upper level disturbance remains... so it is likely that we'll see more rain develop across himachal pradesh today.  be on the lookout for another round of heavy downpours through this evening.  THEN...welcome changes begin tomorrow (friday).  drier air will begin filtering in from the northwest which will bring a gradual but steady reduction in rainfall, humidity, cloudiness, and fog... along with an increase in sunshine and temperatures.  we'll see what our friends at the india met department decide, but it looks like we should be able to celebrate an official withdrawal of the monsoon shortly...

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog.  more showers or thundershowers are likely to develop.
high: 19C (66F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: good chance of some rain (and thunder) in the evening, with partial clearing overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny, with a bit of fog in the afternoon... along with a chance of a brief shower.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  dry and pleasant.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny and comfortably warm.
high: 22C (72F)

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

wednesday evening (22sep)>

moderate to heavy rain has been falling in mcleod ganj early this evening... after a day of occasional showers.  as of 5pm, i had about a third of an inch (8mm)... but much more has fallen in the past hour.  updates will be posted later this evening.

**UPDATE @ 800pm**
-rainfall today (so far) in upper mcleod ganj... 0.81" (2.0cm)
-our high temp of 17.6C (63.7F) was the coolest since 6 july.

it looks like we could be in for more heavy rainfall overnight.  the satellite pics show a very large area of rain extending from northern rajasthan, across punjab, into about the western half of himachal pradesh.  this rain is associated with a strong tropical disturbance which will continue to drift northward during the next 24 hours or so.  it is possible that we could remain on the northern fringe of this system, but if it holds together during its northward drift, we could see some rainfall amounts in excess of 2" (5cm) overnight and on thursday.  stay tuned! 

by friday, it looks like we are going to "turn the corner" with regard to this monsoon season.  all signs point to an intrusion of drier air in all levels of the atmosphere, which should bring an end to the rains, the persistent fog and high humidity.  sunshine AND temperatures will be on the increase over the weekend...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely... heavy at times.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with some fog... occasional rain and/or thundershowers likely.
high: 19C (66F)

FRIDAY: still a risk of a shower... otherwise partly sunny with less fog.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with only a slight chance of a shower.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: sunshine, with some clouds during the PM.  very pleasant.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies, and pleasantly warm...
high: 22C (72F)

wednesday morning (22sep)>

it's cloudy and 16C/60F early this morning, with ominous-looking skies to our south.  only a few sprinkles of rain occurred during the pre-dawn hours, but steady light rain is beginning to fall just now (650am).

we are right on the edge of a large area of rain and thunderstorms, which currently covers most of punjab, and the southwest part of himachal pradesh.  most of the clouds and precipitation continue to drift slowly to the north... so if that movement holds... we should see some significant rains here shortly.  this rainfall is associated with what could be the FINAL surge of monsoon moisture... and computer models again this morning are showing the potential for a good soaking during the next 24-36 hours.  as i've mentioned the last couple of days, some 1-2" (3-5cm) amounts are possible before thursday evening if this scenario plays out.  after that, it really does appear that we will be able to say GOODBYE to the monsoon for this year.  dramatic drying will occur in the atmosphere...from top to bottom... which should scour out most of the fog, chase the rain away, and bring us increasing amounts of sunshine as we head into the weekend...

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain likely, along with possible thunder.  cool, with some fog at times.
high: 19C (66F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of more showers or thunderstorms.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: a few peeks of sun possible... otherwise mostly cloudy with some fog.  good chance of another period or two of showers and thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny, with only a slight chance of a PM shower or thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few periods of clouds.  dry and pleasant!
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.  comfortable temps.
high: 22C (71F)

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

tuesday evening (21sep)>

skies are mostly cloudy across the area just before sunset this evening, but there is very little fog, for a change.  we had a few periods of light showers and drizzle during the early afternoon, but not enough rain to measure.  today's high temp in upper mcleod ganj was a rather cool 17.7C/64F.

satellite pics this evening show a large area of rain and thunderstorms well to our south, over southern punjab, haryana and the delhi metro.  there are a few other widely scattered showers here in himachal pradesh, but nothing very significant... yet.  look for rain chances to continue creeping upward during the next 48 hours or so, as the LAST batch of monsoon moisture drifts northward.  it is rare that all three of our available computer guidance models are in agreement, so i am fairly confident that we will receive a period or two of significant rain between now and thursday evening.  at the moment i am still thinking 1-2" (3-5cm) is within the realm of possibility, but stay tuned as the situation develops.  after that, a dramatic "drying out" trend is likely... from friday through the weekend.  this could very well be THE END of the monsoon... finally.

TUESDAY EVENING: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  good possibility of some rain moving in overnight.
low: 15C (59F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  periods of rain likely... with some thunder possible as well.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  still a good chance of some showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: chance of a lingering shower... otherwise partly sunny and pleasant.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  just a slight chance of a brief PM shower.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny... dry and pleasant!
high: 22C (71F)

tuesday morning (21sep)>

we have a broken layer of mid-level clouds blanketing the area before sunrise this morning, with a temperature of 15.5C/60F.  there has been no additional rainfall overnight.

clouds will be thickening up again this morning, with some fog developing as well.  a large area of tropical moisture covers much of northern india, and is currently centered near delhi.  there are several embedded areas of rain and thundershowers, which will expand and push to the north during the next 12-24 hours.  that means that we are in a very good position to pick up more rain later today... right through thursday.  in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if we picked up some rainfall in the 1-2" (3-5cm) range during the coming 3 days.  the GOOD NEWS is this: this appears to be the final wave of the monsoon for this year... by friday, there will be a rather dramatic reduction of moisture in all layers of the atmosphere, which will lead to lower humidity and an end to the fog.  by this time next week, we may be able to say that monsoon 2010 is truly, absolutely, definitely a thing of the past....!

TUESDAY: some peeks of sunshine early this morning, then becoming cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some showers developing.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.  some thunder possible as well.
low: 15C (59F)

WEDNESDAY: periods of rain and thundershowers likely.  otherwise cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of more showers and thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: one or two lingering showers possible... otherwise becoming partly sunny.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds... dry and pleasant.
high: 21C (70F)

Monday, September 20, 2010

monday evening (20sep)>

wall-to-wall clouds and fog today... with the first glimpses of sunshine trying to appear this evening.  we've had occasional light rain showers for much of the day.  rainfall totals (since about 3am) include:
-near main temple... 0.30" (8mm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.27" (7mm)
our high temperature today was only 18.3C/65F.

i wish i had good news to share... but i'm afraid all signs are pointing to more clouds, fog and occasional rain through thursday.  the very last gasps of monsoon moisture in northern india will remain firmly entrenched for the next few days.  we may see a few peeks of sunshine from time to time, but the atmosphere is unstable, and full of moisture... so any sunshine will just stir things up for a later round of showers or thundershowers.  although most of the rain will be light, there is a decent chance that we could get a period of moderate to heavy rainfall for a few hours, before drier air moves in during the tail end of the week.  unless a bit of sun appears, temperatures will be quite cool... foreshadowing the fall season...

MONDAY EVENING: mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog.  occasional rainshowers will develop again overnight.
low: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: more clouds and fog... with a brief glimpse of sun possible.  periods of showers likely, with a thundershower also possible.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: still a lot of clouds and fog around... along with a good chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: some sunshine between periods of clouds and fog.  still a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: increasing sunshine... decreasing clouds and fog.  only a slight chance of a shower.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny and less humid with a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 22C (71F)

monday morning (20sep)>

it's cloudy with some sprinkles around the area early this morning, with a temp of 16C/60F.  i've recorded 0.12" (3mm) of rain since about 3am here in upper mcleod ganj... making a total of 0.18" (5mm) during the past 24 hours.  our observers near the main temple recorded 0.10" (3mm) overnight.

it seems that rain tends to coincide with mondays... this time last week we were in the middle of our 6"+ dumping.  i don't think we'll see anywhere near that much today, but if the satellite pics are telling the truth, we'll be in and out of the rain, with very little chance of seeing much sunshine.  in fact, most of this week is looking on the wet side... with the remnants of thick and juicy monsoon moisture expected to be camped out over northern india.  occasional disturbances will drift through in the tropical easterly flow, stirring up several waves of rain and possibly some thundershowers.  we should get a few peeks of sunshine from time to time, but all in all, it looks like a fairly gloomy week ahead...

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog.  cool, with occasional rain likely... a thundershower possible as well.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
low: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies and foggy with showers and a thundershower or two likely.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: just a bit of sun, between clouds and fog.  occasional showers and thunderstorms likely again.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog.  good chance of more showers and thunderstorms.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny... with just a chance of a random PM thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

Sunday, September 19, 2010

sunday evening (19sep)>

not quite four full days without rain...  so the streak is finished.  it wasn't much, but we did have a period of showers between 4 and 5pm, after a sunny morning and a foggy and gloomy afternoon.  here i measured 0.06" (1.5mm), but our observers near the main temple didn't receive enough to measure.  the high temp in upper mcleod ganj reached 20.7C/69.3F.

the view from space this evening shows a broad area of clouds associated with deeper tropical moisture moving in from the east. this moisture is what's left of the monsoon in northern india, and will be hanging around for the next several days, thanks to the absence of a much-anticipated push of crisp, dry air from central asia.  periods of showers and thundershowers will be quite likely through thursday... with a round or two of heavy rain possible as well.  apart from the rain, expect the tired old mixture of clouds, fog and peeks of sun.

if you've been watching, you've seen that the ferns and moss have gone from deep green to a dead-looking yellow during the past several days... but it seems that the fog has barely given up at all!

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of a few periods of showers.
low: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  foggy, with occasional showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: some peeks of sun between clouds and fog.  good chance of more showers and thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with some fog.  scattered thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: still a good amount of clouds and fog, with some showers and thundershowers around.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies.  a lingering thundershower possible.
high: 22C (71F)

sunday morning (19sep)>

skies are mostly clear early this morning, with a temperature of 16C/60F. we haven't had a single drop of rain since wednesday evening... so our september total remains near 15" (38cm), averaged across the mcleod ganj area.

an interesting weather scenario will unfold during the coming few days.  although we are right on the edge of being able to say GOODBYE to the monsoon season for this year, there is still a good amount of tropical moisture in the air... that's why we've had a few hours of thick fog everyday, despite the lack of rainfall.  there has been quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity just to our southeast, in uttar anchal and western uttar pradesh the last 2-3 days.  all of our computer models are now in agreement in bringing that disturbed weather northwestward into our area... and increasing our rain chances, right into the middle of  the week.  this is going to dash the hopes of those who were sure that the monsoon was dead and gone.  we will still have periods of sunshine, but don't be surprised by a heavy downpour or two as well...

SUNDAY: mostly sunny this morning, with increasing clouds and fog by noon.  a shower or thundershower is possible by late afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a period of thundershowers overnight.
low: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with off and on showers and thunderstorms.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a few peeks of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.  good chance of a few thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny with periods of fog.  scattered showers or thundershowers in the area.
high: 21C (69F)

Saturday, September 18, 2010

saturday evening (18sep)>

visibility is only about a hundred meters in thick fog this evening, after a day of alternating sun, fog and clouds.  we've now had 72 hours (3 full days) without rain.. first time that's happened since the middle of july.  today's high temp in upper mcleod ganj was 21.5C/70.7F

despite three rainless days, it's hard to declare the end of the monsoon season when there is enough moisture in the air to produce a few hours of fog everyday.  although we are CLOSE to the end, we're still waiting on a strong enough surge of dry air from the northwest to chase all this tropical moisture away for good.  actually, we're going to be heading in the opposite direction during the next few days... as saturated air just to our southeast continues to ease westward, back into our area.  i thought a shower or two might develop today, but it hasn't happened yet... rain chances will continue to increase though, with a chance of a round of heavy rain at some point between now and tuesday.  our total rainfall for the monsoon season has been stuck on about 86" (218cm) for the last few days, but we could easily end up with 90"+ before all is said and done...

SATURDAY NIGHT: evening clouds and fog, with some partial clearing overnight.  only a slight chance of a shower or thundershower.
low: 16C (60F)

SUNDAY: a bit of sunshine in between periods of clouds and fog.  good chance of one or two thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog.  a few showers and thunderstorms are likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with still a good chance of some scattered showers and storms.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and a bit of sun.  chance of a few showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies with just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

saturday morning (18sep)>

we have partly cloudy skies, a few patches of fog, and 16C/60F early this morning.  not a drop of rain has fallen since wednesday evening... making this the longest RAINLESS stretch of weather we've had since late 12th through the 15th of july.

the satellite pics are showing a bit of action this morning, in the form of an increasing amount of clouds and fog, along with some scattered showers from eastern parts of our state into uttar anchal.  there are also a few showers occurring over kashmir, in association with a disturbance in the upper atmosphere.  so... things are a bit more unstable than they've been in a couple of days... and i expect that trend to continue during the next few days. that means we have a better chance of a few showers or thunderstorms sneaking back into the area, and it's worth mentioning that a period of heavy rain is not out of the question between this afternoon and monday or tuesday.  of course we'll still see a good bit of sun here and there, but that dramatic turn to post-monsoon sunny skies and low humidity is not going to happen just yet.

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies til mid-day, then becoming mostly cloudy and foggy.  good chance of one or two showers or thundershowers developing.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a period of showers and storms.
low: 16C (60F)

SUNDAY: a few peeks of sunshine, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with scattered showers and thunderstorms around...
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a continuing mixed bag of sun, clouds and fog, along with scattered thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog.  still a good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 21C (69F)

Friday, September 17, 2010

friday evening (17sep)>

**there were 1000 visits to the mcleodganj weathergeek during the past 31 days, and that rolling monthly total has been rising steadily. i started this blog just for fun, because i've been obsessed with the weather, no matter where i've lived (from minnesota to kansas tornado alley to hawaii to northern india), since i was 11 years old.  thanks to all who've enjoyed following this crazy indian himalayan weather along with me... and thanks to all of you who have contacted me through email and facebook!  i hope it's been interesting and maybe sometimes helpful...**

the sun is trying very hard to peek through the clouds and fog this evening... after our second rainless day in a row.  our observers near the temple noted that the humidity dropped below 80% this morning for the first time since july 14th!  the high temperature in upper mcleod ganj reached 21C/70F.

you may have noticed that the ferns and the moss are now turning yellow... in response to the gradually decreasing humidity, and the diminishing hours of foggy conditions.  once again, it is very tempting to think that we are finished with the monsoon... but there is a very good chance that we'll experience another surge of deep tropical moisture before the season is officially declared OVER.  satellite pics this evening show widespread cloudiness and shower/thundershower activity to our southeast... from near shimla and kinnaur into uttar anchal and nepal.  that's how close the monsoon is lurking.  at the same time, there is an upper level distrurbance dropping southeast into kashmir, bringing a large area of rain and thunderstorms with it.  these factors point to an increasing chance of rain as we head through the weekend... with deep tropical moisture surging in once again, and lasting into next week. 

the bottom line... although we've had some strong signs of a dying monsoon recently, do not expect a quick transition to sunny and crisp fall days right away.  this transition will take another week to 10 days!

FRIDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog this evening, with a slight chance of a brief shower.  becoming mostly clear after sunset.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: a good amount of morning sun, followed by clouds and fog.  better chance of a thundershower or two during the afternoon/evening hours.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few periods of showers or thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  foggy, with a few showers or storms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog, and a bit of sun.  scattered showers and thunderstorms.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: still a mixture of clouds, fog and sun.  good chance of a few thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

friday morning (17sep)>

skies are mostly clear early this morning, with a temperature of 15C/59F.  we've now had about 36 hours without rainfall.

we are living dangerously, with regard to the leading edge of the monsoon/tropical moisture... it is lingering just to the south and southeast of dharamsala, and could surge back at any time.  in fact, i can see the thick wall of clouds and fog to the east, and satellite photos show it covering most of eastern himachal pradesh, and just about all of uttar anchal.  so... that means our dry weather and periods of sunshine are in jeopardy. we'll most likely get another day of decent weather, with a random PM shower possible... but starting tomorrow, rain chances will be gradually on the increase once again, and rising humidity levels will lead to less sunshine and more fog, as we move through the weekend into the new week.  it's not a good idea to retire the umbrella just yet...

FRIDAY: some sunshine early this morning... then increasing clouds and fog, with a chance of a random shower or two during the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: an evening shower or thundershower possible... then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and possibly a thundershower, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: a few peeks of morning sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with some showers and storms likely.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: lots of clouds and fog around... with more showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, September 16, 2010

thursday evening (16sep)>

unless we can somehow get a shower in the next few hours, today will turn out to be the first totally DRY DAY since august 27th.  we've had a mix of sunshine, clouds and a few periods of fog throughout the day, with a high temp of 20.5C/69F in upper mcleod ganj.

the satellite photos late this afternoon are showing clouds and fog clinging to the mountains... from kashmir through HP and uttar anchal... but no organized showers or thunderstorms.  we may yet get a random shower this evening... but skies will quickly clear out around sunset.  expect the mainly dry weather to continue for another 24-36 hours.  there is enough lingering monsoon moisture to aid in the build-up of clouds and fog from mid-day through the afternoon hours... but not enough to contribute to significant rainfall.  that may change by late saturday, as a flow of moisture from the south and southeast combines with an approaching upper-level disturbance from the west.  humidity, clouds, fog, and rain chances will be on the increase once again... so it looks doubtful that we'll get our '5 days in a row' of dry weather to declare an official end to the monsoon...

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY: plenty of sun in the morning, giving way to periods of clouds and fog in the afternoon.  just a slight chance of a random shower.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: morning sun, with some afternoon clouds and fog.  good chance of a period of showers or thundershowers PM.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog.  good chance of a few thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy, foggy and cool, with periods of rain and thunderstorms.
high: 20C (68F)

thursday morning (16sep)>

skies are mostly clear early this morning, with a temp of 15C/59F at the top of mcleod ganj.  no additional rainfall overnight, but yesterday afternoon and evening we received amounts ranging from 0.40" (1cm) in upper mcleod ganj to 0.50" (1.3cm) in naddi village.

our deep monsoon moisture is in retreat mode... and that means steady improvement in our weather conditions will continue for the next 2-3 days.  this morning's satellite pics are showing quiet weather across all of northern india and eastern pakistan... with very few clouds to be seen, much less any areas of precipitation.  that means SUNSHINE galore for a few hours this morning, before clouds and a bit of fog develop, in response to the surface heating.  although there will be no organized areas of rain during the next 48hrs+, the mountain effect will be enough to give us some isolated to widely scattered showers or thundershowers during the afternoons and early evening hours.  the longer range outlook still shows a return of tropical moisture by very late saturday or sunday... which means we may not be completely finished with monsoon conditions for this year...

THURSDAY: mostly sunny skies this morning.  becoming mostly cloudy with a few patches of fog by afternoon...  a brief thundershower or two possible.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: a good chance of an evening shower... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY: lots of morning sun, but mostly cloudy in the PM, with an isolated shower possible.  pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies... but increasing clouds and fog later in the day, with a good chance of a thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: peeks of morning sun giving way to mostly cloudy skies, with fog.  a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog.  some rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

wednesday evening (15sep)>

a rather potent downpour has just ended... leaving us with partly cloudy skies prior to sunset. the rainfall tally:
-near main temple... 0.45" (1.1cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.40" (1.0cm)
our day has been evenly divided between sun, clouds, fog and showers... with a high temp in upper mcleod ganj of 21C/70F.

if you've ever stood on the beach and paid attention to the waves, then you can understand what the monsoon is doing right now. surge and retreat... surge and retreat. we are in a "retreat" phase, which means we're seeing more sunshine, along with less fog, lower humidity and less hours of rain... and that trend will continue into saturday.  however, there will be yet another "surge" of monsoon moisture starting late saturday, and continuing into at least early next week.  we still haven't been able to get a strong enough blast of drier air from the north/northwest to drive the monsoon moisture out of striking distance.  so, enjoy the relatively nice weather between now and saturday, but be prepared for more foggy, humid, moist, murky stuff to make a return appearance...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: only a slight chance of a brief shower or thundershower.  otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 15C (59F)

THURSDAY: some sunshine early, then becoming mostly cloudy with areas of fog by noon... along with a possibility of a shower or two.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny AM, mix of clouds and sun PM.  slight chance of a random shower.  pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: morning sun, but increasing clouds and fog by mid-day, with a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms late afternoon...
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog.  good chance of occasional rain and thunderstorms.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

wednesday morning (15sep)>

only a few clouds in the sky before sunrise this morning... no fog... and a cool temp of 15C/59F.  here's a look at the current rainfall tally:

SEPTEMBER
-near main temple... 14.85" (37.7cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 14.08" (35.8cm)

MONSOON SEASON
-upper mcleod ganj... 85.37" (216.8cm)

i'm encouraged by what i see this morning... we've been anticipating a surge of drier air starting today, and lasting into the first part of the weekend... and it does look promising at the moment.  humidity is much lower, the atmosphere has stabilized, and the satellite pics are showing very little action across north india.  having said that... it won't take too much sunshine this morning to start evaporating all the moisture in the ground... so i do expect increasing clouds and some fog by mid-day.  there is still a risk of a period of showers during the afternoon today, but that chance will be smaller tomorrow and on friday.  although his will be a welcome break, there are strong indications that monsoon conditions will AGAIN surge northward into the area starting as early as saturday afternoon.. so don't get too attached to the idea that the monsoon is gone for good.!

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies this morning.  mostly cloudy with some fog this afternoon, with a chance of one or two showers.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: slight chance of an evening shower, then becoming mostly clear.  cool.
low: 15C (59F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon.  just a slight chance of a shower.  warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: lots of morning sun, but increasing afternoon clouds.  an isolated PM shower possible.  pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: increasing clouds and fog, with a good chance of a few showers or thunderstorms by the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms.
high: 22C (71F)

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

tuesday evening (14sep)>

another day of endless variety... we had a good round of thundershowers this morning which dumped 0.52" (1.3cm) of rain in upper mcleod ganj, 0.59" (1.5cm) in naddi village, and 0.60" (1.5cm) near the main temple.  then we've had thick fog alternating with blasts of sunshine from the mid-day into the evening hours.  despite the little bit of sun, it's been a very cool day, with the high temp at the weathergeek office only reaching 18C/64.5F.

two out of three of our available computer models are forecasting dry weather from now, all the way through saturday.  the third model is holding onto the tropical moisture, and giving us decent rain chances each and every day through the weekend.  i think we can at least expect a reduction in the humidity and an increase in sunshine potential as we head into the latter part of the week.  the waning week or two of the monsoon season is very tricky... as the tropical moisture surges and retreats periodically, before being pushed out altogether.  tomorrow is KEY... if the moisture and fog retreat, then it bodes well for 2-3 days of dry, fall-ish weather.  if tomorrow is still foggy and murky, then it means that we may be stuck with monsoon conditions for yet another week or more...

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and cool, with a shower or thundershower possible overnight.
low: 15C (59F)

WEDNESDAY: a few periods of sunshine in the midst of clouds and fog.  still a chance of one or two showers.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies... warmer and less humid.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.  still just a slight chance of PM thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog returning.  good chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (71F)

tuesday morning (14sep)>

we have mostly cloudy skies and a rather cool 15C/59F early this morning.  there was no additional rainfall overnight (thank goodness), but we're just now starting to get some showers again.  here are the totals for the last 36 hours, along with the totals for the month of september:
-near main temple... 6.25" (15.9cm) sunday evening - monday.  14.25" (36.2cm) for september.
-upper mcleod ganj... 6.75" (17.1cm) sunday evening - monday.  13.56" (34.4cm) for september.

our tropical moisture is on its way out for a few days.  we'll still have to contend with some rain and thundershowers today, but a surge of drier air is scheduled to push through tomorrow, and force most of the unstable monsoon air to our south and east.  at this point, i'm expecting little or no rainfall on thursday and friday... along with some longer stretches of sunshine, lower humidity and less fog.  however, it appears that we won't get to declare an official END to the monsoon season this week, as that moisture (along with increasing rain chances) will return on saturday.  remember, one of the criteria for monsoon withdrawal is 5 days in a row without rainfall.  i'm pretty skeptical of that happening just yet...

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with some fog at times.  a few periods of rain and thundershowers.  cool...
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: still a good chance of some showers or thunderstorms around, especially before midnight... otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: periods of sunshine in between clouds.  one or two showers possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 21C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies... warmer and less humid.  only a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sun, with mainly afternoon clouds.  an isolated shower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: increasing clouds and fog again... with a better chance of some rain and/or thunderstorms late in the day.
high: 23C (73F)

Monday, September 13, 2010

monday evening (13sep)>

we are enjoying some sunshine this evening, after 6.75" (17.1cm) of rain during the past 24 hours... most of which fell between 700pm last night and 11am today.  here in upper mcleod ganj (just below tushita and the mountaineering center) that was the largest single rain event of the monsoon season.  it has been a very cool day, with the high temp only reaching 19C/66F... and during the heavy rain early this morning, the temp dipped to 14C/57F, which is the coolest since the 9th of june.

things are fairly settled across our part of north india this evening... and should stay that way for the most part.  there is still a decent shot at some showers and thundershowers tomorrow, but i'm still expecting the atmosphere to dry out quite a bit starting on wednesday, and continuing through friday.  we can't rule out a few random late day showers, but humidity levels will drop significantly, which will mean less fog and more hours of sun.  if you're looking for the definitive end of the monsoon, you might be disappointed to hear that another surge of tropical moisture will push back into northern india by the weekend, so our period of drier weather will probably not be permanent...

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and rather cool, with only a slight chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny skies with a random PM shower or thundershower possible.  warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: good amount of AM sun, then partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.  only a slight chance of a shower.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: periods of sunshine, with some afternoon clouds... slight chance of a shower.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with fog developing again.  good chance of some showers or thunderstorms by the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

monday morning (13sep)>

i tossed and turned nearly all night... listening to the rain, and thinking i had better go check the rain gauge before it overflowed.   finally, when i checked at 515am, i had 3.85" (9.8cm)... and the gauge only holds 4 inches!  so, i emptied it, but it is still raining quite heavily, so there will be more to report later this morning.  our early morning temp is 15.5C/60F.

**UPDATE @ 812am**  i have received an additional 2.45" (6.2cm) of rain since 515am... bringing the total in the past 13 hours to 6.3" (16cm).  here at the weathergeek office, that is the heaviest one-day rainfall total of the entire monsoon season!  our observers near the main temple recorded 3.8" (9.7cm) as of 630am, but obviously there has been much more since then.  our naddi village observer's rain gauge was overflowing, so he apologized for the lack of an accurate report this morning!!  as rain continues to fall... be aware of FLOODING, LANDSLIDE and ROAD WASHOUT potential for the next several hours...

the rain we are getting now is what i really thought we would start getting over the weekend... that's why i mentioned last night that i was perplexed.  it seems that the atmosphere was just storing up more and more energy, which is being released NOW.  lots of thunder and lightning, as the satellite pics show clusters of very slow-moving thunderstorms continuing to re-develop right on top of us.  this rainy, thundery scenario will continue off and on today... but we're still expecting a gradual turn to drier conditions (meaning, less humidity, lower rainfall potential) as we head into the middle and latter parts of the week.

in case you missed it, i posted some info on determining the official withdrawal of the monsoon... scroll down below this post to check it out.

MONDAY: periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially this morning.  otherwise mostly cloudy with some fog.  cool.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of more showers and thundershowers.
low: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and sun... with some scattered showers and thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny skies, with one or two showers possible in the afternoon.  warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and pleasant, with less humidity.  just a slight chance of a shower.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine... some afternoon clouds with a risk of a brief shower.
high: 23C (74F)

Sunday, September 12, 2010

MONSOON WITHDRAWAL... how do we know?

this is the time of year when you'll hear conflicting information about the status of the monsoon. of course everyone has an opinion (including the weathergeek), and everybody thinks they're right!

BUT... the india meteorological department has a set of criteria that determines the official withdrawal of the monsoon from the indian subcontinent.  here are the three conditions:
1- NO RAIN for 5 consecutive days in any given region
2- the establishment of an anti-cyclone (high pressure area) in the lower part of the atmosphere
3- reduction in moisture content of the prevailing airmass, as infered by water vapor satellite imagery

some of this may sound like meteorological mumbo-jumbo, but basically it means this: the daily rainfall must stop, and the humidity/moisture in the air must drop.  the FOG is really the tell-tale sign of the monsoon's presence.  also... i think i mentioned several days ago that one of the practical signs of the end of the monsoon season is the "yellowing" of the ferns and mosses growing on tree trunks.  i have noticed that starting to happen in the last 2-3 days.

some perspective... although the historical/climatological average date of monsoon withdrawal in the dharamsala area is on or near 15 september, it has actually occurred much later than that during each of the past 6 years.
-2005... 28 sept
-2006... 25 sept
-2007... 1 oct
-2008... 28 sept
-2009... 27 sept
-2010... 27 sept (*added 3.sep.11)

so... stay tuned as we make our way through september, the most unpredictable month of the year!

sunday evening (12sep)>

talk about GLOOM... today has been 95% clouds and fog, with only a couple of very fleeting and weak glimpses of sunshine.  rainfall has been very sparse as well, with just a few brief showers during the early afternoon.  thanks to the clouds and fog, our high temp in upper mcleod ganj only reached 19.5C/67F.

i'm perplexed about our lack of significant rainfall the last 2-3 days...  there have been some heavy dumpings to our west, south and east, but we've managed to miss out.  of course it is only a matter of time until we get our share.  but that "share" will most likely need to happen between now and late tuesday... since a surge of drier and more stable air is still expected to move in by the middle of the week.  it remains to be seen whether or not this will end up being the official END of the monsoon season, since (according to the india meteorological department) there are a number of criteria to be met, but we'll definitely be on our way.  at the very least, humidity levels will dramatically decrease by thursday and friday... after many weeks in the 80-100% range...

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy, with a few showers or thundershowers overnight.
low: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and some sunshine.  still a good chance of a period or two of showers and thundershowers.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the PM.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny skies with an isolated afternoon or evening thundershower possible.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sun... lower humidity.  still some PM clouds with a random thundershower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny and nice.  just a slight chance of a late day thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

sunday morning (12sep)>

cloudy with patches of fog and some sprinkles of light rain early this morning... and a temp of 16C/61F.  only hit-and-miss light showers here overnight (not enough to measure), but a cluster of huge thunderstorms passed just to our south... across punjab, chandigarh, extreme southern HP, into uttar anchal around dehra dun.

our satellite pics this morning show quite a bit of cloud cover across northern india... although some clearing is evident near the pakistan border.  it looks like we'll have to endure a few more days of ambiguous late-monsoon weather... with that rapidly changing mix of sun, clouds, fog, showers and even thunderstorms.  we will see all of it between now and tuesday, so be prepared.  although we haven't seen much heavy rain in the past 48 hours or so, heavy downpours could develop at any time... mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.  that surge of drier, post-monsoon air STILL looks like it will show up during the middle of the week.

by the way... the end of the monsoon season is characterized by the retreat of the deep tropical moisture responsible for the nearly saturated airmass and persistent fog.  keep in mind that after the monsoon is officially "over", we can still get periods of rainy weather, and big thunderstorms... just LOTS more sun in between, and much much lower humidity.  something to look forward to...

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with occasional fog.  good chance of scattered showers and thundershowers.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: chance of a shower or two, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: a few peeks of sun between occasional clouds and fog.  a few showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with a thundershower or two possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.  less humidity... with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sunshine... with just a slight chance of a late day shower.
high: 23C (74F)

Saturday, September 11, 2010

saturday evening (11sep)>

once again, we've had it all today... a couple of hours of nice sunshine in the morning, clouds and a period of thick fog in the early afternoon, a short but fierce thundershower in the mid-afternoon, and now more sunshine in between clouds this evening.  i recorded 0.20" (0.5cm) of rain between 3 and 4pm, along with a high temperature of 21.5C/70F.

as i mentioned a couple of days ago, it is quite clear that we are straddling the line between monsoon conditions and more pleasantly dry fall weather.  this extremely fickle weather will continue for the next 3 days or so, meaning... some sun, some fog, and a few potent thundershowers.  some of our trusty computer models are still trying to squeeze out some heavy rainfall between now and tuesday, so be on the lookout for rapidly developing thunderstorms... especially during the PM hours.  after that, i am conservatively optimistic that a true and lasting blast of drier air will arrive.  winds in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere will become westerly by wednesday, and that should drive most of the tropical/monsoon moisture out of here.  since wednesday is the 15th of september... that would be exactly according to schedule.  of course that is still a few days away, so stay tuned for the latest developments!

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies with a chance of another round of showers or thundershowers overnight.
low: 16C (61F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with a good chance of a period or two of thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: still some showers and thunderstorms in the area.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and warmer, with an isolated thundershower possible in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies, and pleasantly warm.  just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

saturday morning>

we have mostly clear skies and 16C/61F before sunrise this morning.  i heard some thunder overnight, but there was no new rainfall to report this morning... we've only had 0.05" (1mm) in the past 24 hours.

a very interesting forecast for the next few days... the computer models are having a little trouble coming up with a solution, and there has been a lot of contradiction and "flip-flopping" between model runs (every 12 hours).  issue number one is the potential for some very heavy rainfall during the coming 24 hours.  although we're starting out with generally clear skies this morning... plenty of moisture is still in place, and there is a rather potent disturbance drifting through in the upper atmosphere.  that gives us the potential for a significant round of rain and thunderstorms later today and tonight.  issue number two is the continuing good chance of occasional showers and strong storms right through tuesday... the "convective" potential is high... that means temperatures aloft are cooling down considerably, in relation to temperatures at the surface, which is a good recipe for thunder and lightning and possible strong thunderstorm winds.  issue number three is the continuing indication of some dramatic DRYING towards the middle of next week.  i'm not sure if that will mark the END of the monsoon or not... but it will definitely be something to keep a close eye on, as more data becomes available...

SATURDAY: some good sunshine this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with some showers and thunderstorms developing.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers and storms.
low: 16C (61F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies.  good chance of a thundershower or two... mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog.  chance of a few showers and thundershowers around, mainly PM.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, drier, more pleasant.  slight chance of a shower.
high: 23C (73F)

Friday, September 10, 2010

friday evening>

we've had very little sun across the area today, but also very little rain. i only recorded about 0.05" (1mm), from scattered light showers during the morning and early afternoon hours. the high temp today has been 21C/70F.

a very pleasant evening is in progress... with a bit of sun likely to appear around sunset. the satellite pics show all of the significant rain and storm action well to our south across haryana, the delhi NCR and uttar pradesh. we may still see some development of showers and storms in our area tonight, with those rain chances remaining in the forecast through the weekend into early next week. as has been the case this past week... we will get periods of nice sunshine, periods of fog and clouds, along with a few hours of rain, as the monsoon tries to decide whether it is giving up for this year... or not. although it is a bit early to be sure... there are some indications that we could see a substantial retreat of monsoon moisture around the middle of next week...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies... good possibility of more showers and thunderstorms developing overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY: periods of sun, clouds and fog, with a good chance of scattered thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies AM, mostly cloudy PM with a good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog with a good chance of a shower or two.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: less fog, with a good amount of sun. a brief PM shower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

friday morning>

it's mostly cloudy and 17C/62F early this morning. there are a few sprinkles around the area, but i have no additional measurable rainfall here in upper mcleod ganj from the overnight hours.

you might be interested to know that we've had only 3 totally rainless days since the beginning of july... 13-14 july, and 27 august. there were 5 other days when rainfall occurred, but was barely measurable. not sure why i'm mentioning that... since i'm pretty confident the next few days won't be totally rainless, but i thought it was interesting nonetheless...

the satellite pics are showing a rather "messy" scenario across northern india this morning... lots of clouds, and widely scattered thundershowers. expect more in the way of occasional showers and thundershowers right through the forecast period... as the flow of monsoon moisture continues to bump up against the mountains. in fact, one of the computer models is suddenly producing a period of VERY heavy rain on sunday into monday... not sure if i buy that just yet, but it bears watching. temperatures will be entirely dependent on the amount of sunshine we can get... but could jump into the mid-20sC (mid-70sF) with some help...

FRIDAY: a few peeks of sun in between clouds and occasional fog. good chance of a period or two of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and storms in the area.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun, clouds, and patches of fog. a few scattered thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog. good chance of a period or two of showers and storms.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with some rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. still a chance of some thundershowers around...
high: 22C (72F)

Thursday, September 9, 2010

thursday evening>

wicked cloud-to-ground lightning late this afternoon and early this evening, with some heavy showers around the area. but also... sunshine breaking through in the midst of it all and creating a beautiful rainbow in the eastern sky. i had 0.50" (1.3cm) of new rainfall as of 455pm... but there has been more since then, and will update with totals later this evening. the high temp in upper mcleod ganj today was 22C/72F.

**UPDATE @ 745PM... TODAY'S RAINFALL**
-near main temple... 0.90" (2.3cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.80" (2cm)

satellite pics this evening are showing lots of showers and thunderstorms from east central pakistan through punjab and himachal pradesh, so we could continue to see some heavy downpours, especially before midnight. the overall weather pattern is not looking at all like the tail end of the monsoon season. tropical moisture remains entrenched across the indian sub-continent, and really shows no signs of letting go. as i've been mentioning, humidity levels are generally down by 10-15%, and that does make a difference... giving us more sunshine here and there, and less hours of thick fog. BUT... the rainfall is obviously not fizzling out just yet, and there are signs that we could easily get another 15" (38cm) of rain before all is said and done.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with a good chance of a few thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies, with a bit of fog. a couple of PM thundershowers possible.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny, in the midst of some clouds and fog. one or two showers or thundershowers quite likely.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional showers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. periods of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

thursday morning>

cool and mostly cloudy early this morning, with a temp of 16C/61F. we've had a moderate amount of rain in the 12 hours between 6pm and 6am. i've recorded 0.68" (1.7cm) here in upper mcleod ganj... with 1.05" (2.7cm) near the main temple. thundershowers were rumbling around til around 530am... but have stopped for now.

no dramatic changes in the weather pattern are expected right through the next 3-5 days. although the humidity levels have dropped a bit from the 100% saturation of days and weeks past, there is still plenty of juicy monsoon moisture available to fuel scattered showers and thundershowers. however, we will continue to see occasional peeks of sunshine, and less hours of thick fog. although 15 september (typical "end of monsoon") is fast approaching, i'm still not seeing evidence of the surge of dry, crisp air from the northwest that chases the tropical moisture away for good. stay tuned!

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies, with some thicker clouds and fog again during the PM. scattered showers and thundershowers could pop up anytime...
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog. a few showers in the area.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and patches of fog. still a risk of (mainly PM) showers.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: a good amount of sun, in between periods of clouds and fog. good chance of one or two showers/thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies... periods of fog. good chance of scattered showers.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

wednesday evening>

the day started off with more sunshine than we've seen in a while... but is ending with the usual clouds and very thick fog. we've had a few rumbles of thunder and some sprinkles of rain in between, but nothing measurable. with the sunshine earlier, we managed a high temp in upper mcleod ganj of 22.5C/72.5F.

we are obviously living in two worlds... 1) the clinging monsoon season, with its gloom and moisture, and 2) the coming fall season, with its drier, sunnier skies. it looks like we'll be caught between these two worlds for at least the next severals days... it is going to take some time for the monsoon to relinquish its grip on us, and allow the glorious himalayan fall weather to take over. all we can do is be patient, and continue to expect virtually anything from periods of sun, to periods of fog, to heavy downpours of rain... all of it will occur during the next several days. during this pattern it is possible to get a few hours of nice sunshine AND an hour or two of heavy rain in the same day. thus far, our total rainfall since the beginning of july is right around 77" (195cm)... and it is a good bet we'll reach 90" (228cm) before the monsoon fizzles out...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of a thundershower or two overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog... with a few showers/thundershowers possible, mainly during the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies with a risk of an afternoon shower or thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: some sun, mainly in the AM, then mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: glimpses of morning sun, then mostly cloudy and foggy. still a good chance of some showers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies. periods of fog... periods of showers.
high: 22C (72F)

wednesday morning>

waking up to a FOGLESS morning, which is a rare event. it's quite cool, too... with a current temp of 16C/61F. i had another 0.33" (0.8cm) of rain last night, bringing my total for the past 24 hours up to 0.93" (2.4cm), and total for the past 48 hours up to 2.23" (5.7cm).

there are a few mid-level clouds in the area this morning, and the satellite pics show several patches of clouds in our vicinity... but no showers or storms. there has obviously been a remarkable DROP in the humidity levels since last evening, which is very nice to see (and feel). we still can't rule out a few showers or thundershowers during the next few days, but it does appear that we will get a better view of the sun, and some warmer temperatures as we move toward the end of the week. the deep monsoon moisture won't be far away, however, so the saturated/foggy conditions could ease back in with little advance warning!

WEDNESDAY: some nice sunshine this morning... but becoming mostly cloudy with some fog by the afternoon. still a chance of a shower or a thundershower.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: a thundershower or two possible before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 16C (61F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies, with a bit of fog in the PM. chance of isolated showers.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny and pleasantly warm. risk of mainly afternoon showers.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: a few peeks of AM sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

tuesday evening>

well... we've had what you might call a rainy afternoon. there've been a couple of moments when there was thunder, rain and sun happening simultaneously... but the rainfall has been fairly substantial:
-near main temple... 0.70" (1.8cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.60" (1.5cm)

the temperatures have been creeping up the last couple of days... the high at the top of mcleod ganj was 21.5C/71F.

it's one of those evenings when the satellite pic has "chicken pox" syndrome... there are showers and thundershowers scattered from eastern pakistan and kashmir, through himachal pradesh, and on southeastward into uttar anchal and nepal. most of these will die out overnight, but we can't rule out a few survivors. the highlights for the next few days include a trend toward slightly drier weather from tomorrow into friday... with a good chance that we will see an increase in sunshine potential, and temperatures. then... rain chances, fog and humidity increase again on saturday and sunday. i know most of us are anxious to see the backside of the monsoon, HOWEVER, other than a break or two here and there, it shows no signs of retreating for good during the next week... at least...

TUESDAY NIGHT: scattered thundershowers likely before midnight... chance of another shower or two later. otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: periods of sun, clouds and fog. still a few scattered showers around.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. chance of a shower or thundershower... mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies, with a few periods of fog. chance of a thundershower or two in the afternoon and evening.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: just a peek or two of sunshine...otherwise lots of clouds and fog. good chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)