the latest...

**It's 72ºF/22ºC as of 9:30pm this Thursday evening... one of the warmest nights of the season thus far.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

saturday evening>

it has been a cloudy, foggy and rainy saturday... with a high temp of only 20C/68F in upper mcleod ganj. we've had occasional light rain showers for much of the day, but so far, it seems that the tally has been only around .25" (6mm)... but it is still raining, so i'll give a rainfall update later this evening, both from upper and lower mcleod ganj.

huge thunderstorms with heavy rains have passed by to our south today... from eastern UP, across the delhi ncr, and into rajasthan. we've had lots of scattered showers along the foothills of the mountains throughout himachal pradesh... and they will continue during the evening hours. expect more of the same for the next few days, with the ever-present potential of heavy downpours, on either side of brief periods of sunshine. currently it looks like wednesday could be the wettest day of the coming week... with computer models dumping out lots of latent moisture right on top of us. that's a bit far away... but it bears watching. also, keep an eye on this space for detailed july statistics tomorrow morning!!

(rest of ) SATURDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with periods of heavy rain. some flooding likely!
low: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: a few peeks of sunshine, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with off and on rainshowers likely.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers and fog. a thundershower possible as well.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: more showers around the area. otherwise mostly cloudy with periods of fog.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with rain and a few thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. risk of a few showers.
high: 22C (72F)

saturday morning>

foggy and 18C/65F before sunrise this morning. only a few drops of rain overnight, with only around a tenth of an inch (2-3mm) reported in the past 24 hours. quite surprising, considering all the thunder rumbling around last night. this is why it would be great to have rainfall observers in other parts of the area... showers and thundershowers (as opposed to steady stratoform rains) are by nature quite random, and amounts can vary greatly over a small geographical area.

this morning's satellite pics are showing more random shower and thundershower activity, extending from just south and west of dharamsala, to shimla, and on to dehra dun and even into the delhi ncr. the general drift of all of this is to the north, so we stand a good chance to get in on the action today. it's not necessary to make any major adjustments to the current 5 day forecast, as the overall pattern will remain pretty much the same right into the middle of next week. we have abundant tropical moisture at the surface, and a very benign upper-air pattern. that means more of the same... a bit of sun... a lot of fog... occasional tropical showers (some heavy)... and pleasant temps...

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a good chance of some showers or thundershowers in the area.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies. periods of fog, along with a good chance of off and on showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: some glimpses of sunshine in the AM. mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers in the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and sunshine. good chance of a few scattered showers.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

Friday, July 30, 2010

friday evening>

i have almost zero visibility in fog just past 5 o'clock this evening. the high temperature today at the weathergeek office was a very comfortable 23.7C/74.6F. there have been off and on light rain showers around since the late morning, but it's been barely measurable thus far. the satellite pics indicate that there could have been some heavier showers somewhere along the dhauladars this afternoon.

still no major changes to pass along... the pattern will remain pretty much the same for the next several days. that means: 1) glimpses of sunshine, 2) periods of thick clouds and fog, 3) off and on showers and/or thundershowers, mainly during the afternoon into the overnight hours. locally heavy rainfall could easily occur... perhaps an inch or more in just an hour or so. at this point, i'm really not seeing any long periods of steady rain, as we lack the upper-level dynamics to support that... but on the other hand, i also don't see any stretches of rainless weather to dry things out at all. temps will remain very pleasant throughout...

FRIDAY EVENING: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers and possibly a thundershower (mainly before midnight).
low: 18C (65F)

SATURDAY: a little sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers and thundershowers likely. locally heavy rain is possible.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: some morning sunshine, then mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers around.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and sun. good chance of scattered showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a showers and a few thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

friday morning>

mostly clear skies this morning... and a comfortable 18C/64F. no additional rain fell overnight, and the satellite pics are showing nothing imminently threatening... although there is a large cluster of rain and thunderstorms over uttar anchal, showing little movement.

as i mentioned last evening, we're in for several days of of typical mid-monsoon weather. there is no major, organized storm system expected to affect the area, but with plenty of tropical moisture around, a bit of sunshine to heat things up, and some cooler air aloft, we'll have daily rounds of showers and thundershowers... some of which could dump very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. i received more than an inch (2.5cm) in about 30 minutes yesterday afternoon... and that kind of local/isolated deluge could occur anywhere, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. despite plenty of clouds and fog around... there will also be the momentary periods of sunshine in between. temperatures will remain comfortable, with highs topping 70F (21C) right into early next week...

FRIDAY: sunshine early this morning will yield to clouds and fog. good chance of a few showers and thundershowers, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: some showers/thundershowers in the area this evening... then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with a few periods of rain or thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: a little sunshine in the midst of clouds and fog. good chance of some showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: no big changes... scattered showers and thundershowers in the area. mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 22C (71F)

Thursday, July 29, 2010

thursday evening>

plenty of variety, weather-wise, across the area today. there were a few glimpses of sunshine, periods of super-thick fog and clouds, and a couple of rounds of showers (and thunder) which delivered vastly different amounts of rain between upper and lower mcleod ganj. i recorded 1.30" (3.3cm) at the top of town, just below tushita and the mountaineering center. most of that fell in about a half-hour's time! but our official observers near the temple only picked up 0.30" (0.8cm). that indicates how RANDOM rainfall can be when we have convective showers and thundershowers popping up. the high this afternoon was warmer than it's been recently... 23C / 73.6F.

i am tempted to "copy and paste" the forecast for the next several days. we are in a rather non-descript kind of pattern, that will be dominated by the presence of very deep and thick tropical moisture getting lifted and condensed out in the form of scattered showers and thundershowers... mainly during the afternoon and overnight hours. there is no major upper-level system moving through, thus, no organized, long-lasting, persistent, steady rainfall is expected. but the irony is this... there could be bursts of very heavy rain at any time... and there will also be periods of refreshing sunshine. temperatures will be coolish, but it will feel quite warm and muggy when the sun pops out. be prepared for it all...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy. chance of another shower or thundershower overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun in the morning. mostly cloudy and foggy in the PM with a good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: periods of sun... periods of clouds and fog. scattered showers and thundershowers around.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mix of clouds, fog and a few glimpses of sun. chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: more of the same... mix of clouds, fog and sun. scattered showers possible.
high: 22C (72F)

thursday morning>

mostly cloudy and a mild 19c/66f just before 6am. we've had off and on light rain throughout the night, but my rain gauge is only showing about 0.10" (3mm). that give us a total of only 0.50" (1.3cm) since tuesday evening... nice to get a little break in the action.

this morning satellite pics are showing that most of the concentrated areas of heavier rain have shifted westward into pakistan, and are weakening. we have scattered clouds and very light rain showers across himachal pradesh, but nothing particularly menacing at the moment. the overall pattern is changing, which will bring us more "showery" type rain, with even a chance of some thundershowers as we move toward the weekend. some locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the next few days, but the rain will be more of the scattered or "off and on" variety, interspersed with a few periods of sunshine here and there. actually, beware of the sunny moments... if you are tempted to hang out your washing/laundry, be prepared to gather it back quickly in the event of a sudden thundershower.!

THURSDAY: partly cloudy early this morning... but increasing clouds and fog by noon, with a chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: an evening shower or thundershower possible, then becoming partly cloudy.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog. chance of a few (mainly PM) showers or thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of occasional rain, and possibly a thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: a little morning sun possible... then mostly cloudy with fog. off and on rainshowers are likely during the mid-day into the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of occasional rain.
high: 21C (70F)

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

wednesday evening>

what an incredibly nice couple of hours we had this afternoon! here in himachal pradesh we were the beneficiaries of an unexpected "donut hole" in the clouds and rain that opened up right over our heads. the high temp reached 22c/71f around 3pm, and other than a little light drizzle during the morning, the only rainfall was the 0.40" (1cm) we received during the night and pre-dawn hours.

things have turned sour again at the time of this writing... with thick fog having totally enveloped us once again. the satellite pics show a very complicated pattern over the western himalayan region. it seems that the atmosphere is in a stage of readjustment after the recent heavy rains... and the computer models are going in all different directions for the next few days. the best i can come up with at the moment is that we still have a good chance of some rain developing overnight... but then moving out quickly and leaving us with a fairly decent thursday. then, some weak fluctuations in the monsoon pattern will provide us with periods of rain (but with some nice long breaks in between) as we move into the weekend. heavy rainfall could occur on any given day, but some sunny breaks are also possible. temperatures will remain extremely pleasant...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: periods of clouds and fog... with a good chance of some rain moving in late.
low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog. still a chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: a few peeks of sunshine... but still plenty of clouds and fog. good chance of occasional rainshowers.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with some fog. off and on rainshowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: periods of sunshine, mixed in with clouds and fog. a chance of one or two showers.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mix of clouds and sun with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 22C (71F)

wednesday morning>

a thick layer of clouds blankets the area early this morning... but there is a total lack of fog, which is making the shimla hills visible from the top of mcleod ganj. that's a rare sight this time of year. we picked up another 0.40" (1cm) of rain overnight, for a total of 3.6" (9cm) since late monday night. our morning temperature is 17c/62f.

another batch of rain is heading our way from the northeast, according to the satellite pics. this one could be the last of the big rain-makers during the next couple of days, as computer models are now showing a significant weakening of the strong dynamics necessary to keep the big rains going. that doesn't mean the wet weather will disappear altogether... it just means that rainfall will be generally lighter, and of a more scattered nature as we move into the end of the week. it's likely that we'll still pick up 3 or more inches (7cm+) during the next several days, but there will be some nice stretches of dry weather in between, and perhaps even a few glimpses of sunshine.

WEDNESDAY: cloudy and cool with periods of rain likely. fog will redevelop by late morning.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with some lingering rain in the evening.
low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny in the AM... but mostly cloudy and foggy by afternoon, with a few showers possible. not as cool.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy. periods of fog, and a good chance of occasional light rain.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a few periods of rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and a little sunshine in the morning. mostly cloudy and foggy with random showers in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

tuesday evening>

cloudy, foggy, drizzly and cool this evening... after a major day of rain. the rain gauges on either end of mcleod ganj were in perfect agreement, logging 3.2" (8.1cm) since late last night. we've now topped 27" (68cm) for the month of july! it was nice to get a brief glimmer of sunshine in the mid-afternoon, which helped our high temp struggle to 20c/68f.

i'm afraid i have no good news for you, if you're waiting for some drier weather. we are deeply embedded in an intense phase of the monsoon... and that will keep periods of rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future. there are still indications that we could get a bit of a break, perhaps on thursday, with more dry hours between bouts of wetness... but each and every day right into the weekend hold the potential for measurable rainfall. the various computer models that provide guidance are all pointing to additional rainfall of 4-6" (10-15cm) during the coming 5 day forecast period. if it's not raining, we'll have plenty of clouds and fog, with not nearly enough sunshine to dry things out...

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy, with more rain moving in overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

WEDNESDAY: periods of rain likely, with additional heavy rainfall possible. otherwise mostly cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: some peeks of sunshine?? but still plenty of clouds and fog, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of occasional rain.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: more clouds, more fog, with more rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a bit of clearing and drying possible... but still a chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

tuesday morning>

i'm showing about 1.4" (3.6cm) of new rainfall overnight here at the very top of mcleod ganj. that's now more than 4" (10.2cm) since all this started up on saturday afternoon. will post our official temple measurements when they come in later this morning. rain continues to fall at 6am, with a temp of 17c/62f.

**UPDATE** the official rainfall (measured between the temple and chonor house) as of 7:15am is 1.65" (4.2cm)

unless something very surprising happens, it looks like we are in line for a lot more rain today. the satellite pics are showing a very large upper-level disturbance continuing to move very slowly from east to west... from western tibet, across northern india into pakistan. deep tropical moisture is getting sucked up against the mountains, lifted high into the atmosphere, and dumped out on top of us. this morning's computer model guidance is now keeping this thing in our neighborhood through wednesday... then indicating dwindling rain chances on thursday into the weekend. we may get some short breaks during the next 36 hours or so, but expect an additional 3-5" (8-13cm) of rain by tomorrow evening...

TUESDAY: cloudy skies with periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. some fog, with cool temps!
high: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and cool with more rain likely.
low: 16C (61F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and cool with periods of fog. occasional rain is still likely, which could be heavy.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: perhaps some peeks of sunshine... but still mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers around.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of a random shower or thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: some morning sunshine possible, then mostly cloudy with scattered thundershowers in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

Monday, July 26, 2010

monday evening>

rainy days and mondays...? after fairly steady rain from 10am until about 430pm, we've come up with a very consistent total across mcleod ganj... 0.95" (2.4cm) near the temple, and 0.90" (2.3cm) just below the mountaineering center and tushita. that brings the official total since saturday afternoon up to about 3" (7.6cm). temperatures have moved little all day, remaining near 18-19C / 64-67F.

we're in the midst of a little break this evening... but the satellite photos show a strong flow from the east in the upper atmosphere, carrying another batch of rain which will move into the area later tonight, as long as it holds together. honestly, there is very little hope of any extended periods of dry weather right through the next 5 days. all computer models are showing surge after surge of tropical moisture moving in from southeast to northwest across the area... each of which could bring us a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. the best we can hope for is possibly a 12-18 hour break in the rain around mid-week... and then again on saturday. we're in the thick of monsoon 2010... no escaping it.

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with more rain developing.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rain is still likely... with some heavy amounts possible.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: perhaps a few peeks of sunshine, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy. chance of off and on rainshowers.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of some showers.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun and fog. chance of some scattered rainshowers.
high: 22C (71F)

monday morning>

we have cloudy skies and 18c/65f early this morning. there were only a few very light rain showers overnight, but not enough to measure. current satellite pics are showing lots of cloud cover across northern india, with some brighter, colder tops over eastern himachal pradesh, extending eastward into extreme western portion of tibet, indicating rain and thundershowers. the flow in the upper atmosphere is coming in from the east-northeast now, so that activity appears to be heading in our direction.

our chances of heavy rainfall are very good between now and tomorrow evening, as this upper-level disturbance moves slowly from east to west across the area, tapping into the tropical moisture at the surface. 2-3" (5-8cm) might be a conservative estimate during the coming 36 hours or so. we're looking at a break in the rain during the mid-week period, perhaps on wednesday into early thursday, but then a good chance of more significant rains moving in for the end of the week. temps will fluctuate very little, with the lack of decent sunshine...

MONDAY: cloudy skies with patches of fog at times. periods of rain likely... some could be heavy.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with occasional rain.
low: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy, with more periods of moderate to heavy rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: some peeks of sunshine possible... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy. chance of one or two showers.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with an increasing rain and thundershower chances by afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

Sunday, July 25, 2010

sunday evening>

light rain is falling again this evening... and will add to the total of 2.05" (5.2cm) recorded near the dalai lama's temple since yesterday afternoon. my total at the top of mcleod ganj has reached 1.45" (3.7cm) during that same time period. today's high temp reached only 21c/69f, despite a few minutes of sunshine during the late morning.

it looks like we're in for a significant amount of rain during the next 48 hours or so... and after that, computer models diverge into several conflicting solutions. in the short term, abundant tropical moisture will interact with an increasingly unstable atmosphere to bring us the potential for heavy rains, at least periodically, through tuesday. but there is some indication that drier and more stable air will work its way in for a while during the middle of the week, which should provide us with a short break. then... another wave of moderate to heavy rain could materialize once again around thursday. but this is where our guidance is in disagreement. one thing is for sure> it will be a shocker NOT to reach a total of 30" (76cm) for the month of july...

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with some light rain this evening... and a good chance of more rain developing overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain likely.. which could be heavy at times.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of more moderate to heavy rainfall.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with some scattered rainshowers still possible, mainly PM.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog, and a good chance of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a chance of one or two periods of light rain.
high: 22C (72F)

sunday morning>

the weathergeek rain gauge is showing an additional 0.70" (1.8cm) overnight, giving a total of 1.2" (3cm) since late yesterday afternoon. my fellow weathergeeks near the temple received 0.80" (2cm) overnight, with a total of 1.65" (4.2cm) in the past 24 hours... evidence of the need for multiple rain gauges around this mountainous terrain (any volunteers??) it is cloudy and foggy early this morning, with a temp of 19c/66f.

the satellite pic this morning is showing a large area of nearly stationary rain with embedded thundershowers covering most of western and southern himachal pradesh. we are dry at the moment, but more rain will either move in, or develop on top of us today. this latest surge of the monsoon has already been rather vigorous (as evidenced by the rain late yesterday and overnight), and will likely deliver some generous rainfall totals during the next 72 hours or so, as several waves of rain move in and out. there is some indication that rain potential will ease up briefly during the middle of the week, but it's hard to see a completely dry day on the horizon. temps will be quite cool, unless we can come up with an hour or more of sunshine somewhere along the way...

SUNDAY: cloudy with patches of fog at times. periods of rain likely... along with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of more rain.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. rain is likely... heavy at times.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with (potentially heavy) rain off and on through the day.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a break in the action?? a mix of clouds and sun, with a few showers, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies. good chance of more rain and possible thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

Saturday, July 24, 2010

saturday evening>

we've had random sprinkles and light showers since about 1030am today... and a thundershower is in progress as i write. the official rainfall total for the day was only 0.10" (2mm) as of the mid-afternoon, but we'll obviously have more to report later this evening. the high temp was 23c/74f, thanks to a few periods of sunshine during the early morning, and again in the early afternoon.

**UPDATE @ 930pm** evidence of the wide variety of rainfall amounts in mountainous areas... our official tally for today just above the temple was 0.85" (2.2cm), but i received 0.50" (1.3cm) at the top of mcleod ganj, just below the mountaineering center.

all signs are pointing to a return to full-on monsoon conditions during the coming 24-48 hours. rain chances will continue to increase into the new week... with a few rounds of heavy rain likely through tuesday, as tropical moisture gets pushed northward against the mountains once again. based on computer model guidance, monday could be the wettest day of the next 5... with at least a couple of inches possible. rain chances will diminish a bit by the middle of the week, but there will still be showers and thundershowers around, with humidity remaining sky high...

SATURDAY NIGHT: foggy with thundershowers in the vicinity this evening... then becoming partly cloudy overnight.
low: 19C (66F)

SUNDAY: a bit of early morning sun will give way to mostly cloudy skies with fog. good chance of showers and thunderstorms developing, with some heavy rain possible in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain likely. look out for possible heavy amounts.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional light to moderate rain is still likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: perhaps a little morning sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers or thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

saturday morning>

our saturday morning is dawning with partly cloudy skies, and a comfortable temp of 18c/65f. the satellite pic shows some patches of mid-level clouds across northern india, along with a couple of thundershowers in the middle of uttar anchal. things are much less active than they were 48 hours ago... and it looks like we may get one more relatively quiet day before monsoon madness hits again.

today should be the warmest day in over a week, with some sunshine this morning. although rain chances aren't GREAT, we still can't rule out a few random thundershowers over the mountains this afternoon. the rain potential will increase significantly by sunday afternoon, and continue to increase through tuesday, with another round of heavy rainfall very likely during the first half of the week. the total rainfall for the month of july thus far is nearly 21" (53cm)... so 30" (76cm) is not at all out of the question by the end of the month, which is one week from today...

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies this morning. becoming mostly cloudy with some fog this afternoon. a shower or thundershower possible during the PM. warmer!
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a slight chance of a thundershower in the evening, then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of some showers/ thundershowers by mid-day into the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely. a thunderstorm or two also possible.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain...
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with patchy fog. a few rainshowers are still likely.
high: 21C (69F)

Friday, July 23, 2010

friday evening>

today was the first day since last thursday (15 july) without measurable precipitation. there were a few sprinkles during the early afternoon hours, after some morning sunshine which quickly gave way to murky clouds and fog. the high temp at the weathergeek office was 22c/71.5f, which occurred around noon.

even if you're a rain lover, i think you'd have to admit that it was nice to get a break in the action today. although we obviously still have plenty of moisture near the surface, the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere have dried out and warmed up a bit... which has created some stability, and squashed the rain potential. these conditions will continue tomorrow... with only a small chance of a thundershower popping up in the afternoon hours. BUT>> monsoon conditions will be back in force starting again on sunday, and especially by monday and tuesday. it's likely that we'll receive another 5-6" (12-15cm) of rain during the first half of next week. in the meantime, relish the short reprieve...

FRIDAY NIGHT: periods of fog, otherwise partly cloudy and pleasant.
low: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: a bit of sunshine likely in the morning... then increasing clouds and fog with a chance of a brief afternoon thundershower. warmer.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy early AM, then mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some thundershowers developing.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain likely, along with a chance of thunder.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy... more rain likely. rather cool.
high: 20C (68F)

friday morning>

mostly cloudy skies early on this friday morning... with a temp of 17c/62f. there was no additional rainfall overnight, but yesterday's total was 2.30" (5.8cm), bringing the total since last friday afternoon up to 8.35" (21.2cm). yes, it has been a very wet week!

it's always a scary proposition to take rain chances out of the forecast during the monsoon season, so i am faced with a bit of a dilemma this morning. it looks like conditions the next two days will be less favorable for rain across our area... some drier air is moving in aloft, and instability is decreasing. however, there is still an abundance of tropical moisture at the surface, and with any heating thanks to some peeks of sunshine, some isolated showers or thundershowers could surely develop. at any rate, we're looking at drier and warmer weather both today and saturday than we've seen in several days.

the tide will turn yet again starting on sunday... as deep monsoon moisture surges back into the western himalayan region. rain chances will be on the increase into early next week, with one of the computer models hinting at rainfall of 10cm (4") on tuesday alone!! we'll have to wait and see...

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies this morning. mostly cloudy with some fog during the afternoon, along with a risk of a thundershower. warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: slight chance of an evening thundershower, then partly cloudy.
low: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun. muggy and a bit warmer. a brief PM thundershower is possible.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: peeks of morning sun giving way to clouds and fog by mid-day. good chance of a thundershower or two during the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. rain becoming more likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: cloudy, cooler, foggy and rainy...
high: 21C (69F)

Thursday, July 22, 2010

thursday evening>

we're putting the closing touches on a very wet day. there have been two major rounds of rain... one between 2:00 and 4:00am, which delivered around a half inch, and a long episode from 9:30am til about 4:00pm, which dumped 1.7" (4.3cm). temperatures today were very cool, remaining in the low to mid-60s(f), or 16-18(c). the sun is trying to break out this evening, and that may be a sign of things to come...

a reprieve from the sogginess of the past week is in order, and it does appear that the monsoon moisture will retreat a bit during the next 48 hours or so. the atmosphere will become more stable through saturday, which should give us a bit more sunshine, less fog, warmer temps, and smaller chances of rain. the rain potential won't disappear altogether, but we should get more hours of dry weather out of the deal. unfortunately, the deep, tropical moisture will be quick to return, starting on sunday... with a return to saturated conditions and high potential for heavy rainfall as the new week unfolds...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with still a chance of a shower or two overnight. rather cool.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: some sunshine returns... but also periods of clouds and a little fog at times. only a slight chance of a thundershower (mainly PM). warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a chance of a thundershower or two during the afternoon. warm and muggy.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: a bit of morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some rain and thundershowers developing.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain chances on the increase. cooler.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: cool, with lots of clouds and fog. periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

thursday morning>

waking up to 17c/62f, with mostly cloudy skies. we had a nice round of rain and thunder during the wee hours of the morning.... i'm showing 0.60" (1.5cm), but will want to check that with my official observers near the temple later this morning. that brings us up to 6.65" (16.9cm) for the past week.

best to be both mentally and physically prepared for yet another day of wetness... as satellite pics and computer models are both indicating that a few waves of showers and thundershowers will be in the vicinity. actually, the heaviest rainfall today is expected to be to our west, from western kashmir down through punjab... but we won't be able to escape all of it. THEN, a short period of drier weather will move into northern india... but it does indeed look like it will be short. after a bit of a break in the rainy weather on friday and saturday, bonafide monsoon conditions will come surging back in, starting on sunday, and should be in full swing again by late monday and tuesday...

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a few periods of rain likely. patchy fog as well. cool.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies... with a chance of a few showers in the evening.
low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny in the morning. mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a chance of a brief thundershower. warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: some morning sunshine, but clouds and fog during the afternoon with an isolated shower or thundershower possible. rather warm and muggy.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: becoming mostly cloudy and foggy. good chance of a few thundershowers, especially during the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

wednesday evening>

after a couple of hours of nice sunshine early this morning, the gloom set in again for most of the day, in the form of lots of clouds and fog. about 3 hours of light rainshowers this afternoon brought us only about 0.10" (3mm)... much less than expected. the high temp at the weathergeek office was 22c/71f, during the mid-morning before the clouds developed.

this evening the satellite photos show lots of cloudiness over kashmir and himachal pradesh, but no organized areas of significant rain or thunderstorms. we still have a string of upper-level disturbances dropping in from the northwest, combined with tropical moisture at the surface... so i am hesistant to drop the rain potential during the next 24 hours or so. computer models are still coming up with as much as 2" (5cm) for our area between now and late thursday night, so we may yet get hit with another round of heavy rain. available moisture and atmospheric dynamics will briefly diminish on friday and saturday, which could give us some decent laundry-drying weather, but then rain chances creep back up again for the new week...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy again, with a chance of rain/thunderstorms developing.
low: 17C (63F)

THURSDAY: brief periods of sunshine... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with more periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies. warmer, with a chance of an isolated afternoon thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: a good amount of morning sunshine... then mostly cloudy with a PM thundershower possible. muggy.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy AM, mostly cloudy and foggy PM, with an increasing chance of rain and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a few periods of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

wednesday morning>

it's a chilly 17c/62f up here in the forest early this morning... there are patches of strato-cumulus clouds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, but very little fog. that means we will get some peeks of sunshine before the clouds and fog thicken up again toward the mid morning. the view from space shows very little happening across northern india at the moment... but a rain/storm complex is gathering steam over pakistan, just west of lahore, and will be moving in our general direction throughout the morning hours.

this latest surge of the monsoon has brought us just under 6 inches (15cm) of rain since last friday, and we're still expecting to squeeze out another inch or two before it winds down late tomorrow. computer models are placing the heaviest rainfall roughly along a line from srinagar to chandigarh during the next 36 hours or so... which would include us. after that, it appears that the atmosphere will dry out for at least a couple of days. we'll still run the risk of an afternoon thundershower popping up, but over the weekend, we expect to enjoy a period of drier, warmer weather, with a little more sunshine than we've seen in awhile...

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny skies early this morning... but increasing clouds and fog will lead to a good chance of more rain and/or thundershowers by mid-day into the afternoon.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rain showers likely.
low: 17C (63F)

THURSDAY: a few periods of rain again likely... otherwise mostly cloudy with patchy fog.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies. warmer, with a slight chance of an afternoon shower or two.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun. rather warm and muggy, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: some sunshine, mainly in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

tuesday evening>

we had a slight meteorological catastrophe today... monkeys went after the official rain gauge (located near the temple, just below chonor house in mcleod ganj), and managed to spill out an undetermined amount of the day's rainfall. having been out and about in the periodic light rain today, with a few bursts of moderate rain, i am estimating that we had somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.70" (1.8cm). if someone out there has a rain gauge, i'd love to know if this is somewhat close to reality. the heaviest rain occurred between 11am and 130pm, and again between 3 and 4pm.

the satellite pics today have been busy... lots of rain and thundershower action has been scattered from pakistan across northern india. the computer models are still indicating that this pattern will continue through thursday, with northwesterly flow aloft, combined with south-southeasterly flow of rich, moist tropical air at the surface, which will be lifted up against the mountains. that means periods of rain (and some rumbles of thunder) will be a pretty sure bet for the next 48 hours, with a continuing threat of heavy rain at times. changes are on the way for the end of the week, however. a drier pattern will dominate from friday into sunday, bringing us warmer temps, and a few hours of sunshine here and there...

TUESDAY NIGHT: foggy with a few periods of rain likely, with some thunder possible. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
low: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog. more rain likely, on and off througout the day.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: rain is still likely. mostly cloudy with occasional fog.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies. warmer, with a chance of just one or two showers.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun. rather warm and muggy, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: still a mix of clouds and sun, with a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

tuesday morning>

mostly cloudy along with some thick patches of fog early this morning... with a temp of 18c/65f. no rain at the moment but satellite pics are showing quite a bit of action to our west and south. a large cluster of rain and thunderstorms is straddling the kashmir/pak border, with other smaller, scattered thundershowers across punjab, southward to the delhi area.

the forecast is a bit on auto-pilot this morning... as there are no dramatic changes in the overall pattern, either at the surface or in the upper atmosphere. that means occasional periods of rain and thunderstorms will remain likely through thursday, with some additional heavy rainfall amounts. computer model solutions are coming up with another 3-4" (7-10cm) during that timeframe. as we saw yesterday afternoon, with this hyper-saturated airmass, a couple of inches can get dumped on us in a very short time. there will be brief peeks of sunshine at times, in between all the clouds, fog and rain. looking ahead... there are indications of a drying trend for the end of the week, meaning, a little more sun, a little less humidity, and smaller rain chances...

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a round or two of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of some rain, and possibly some thunder.
low: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: still lots of clouds and fog around, with more rain.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy. periods of fog, along with occasional rain.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: a little more sunshine... but still foggy at times. chance of a few showers.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and muggy. chance of an isolated PM thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

Monday, July 19, 2010

monday evening>

a mid-afternoon thunderstorm dumped the biggest single rainfall of the year this afternoon... with about 2.5" (6.4cm) falling in just 2 hours. combined with some light rain in the morning, that gave us a daily total of 2.65" (6.7cm)... with a good chance of more before the day is done. the high temp at the top of mcleod ganj hit 21c/70f.

satellite pics are fairly active this evening, showing scattered showers and thunderstorms along a line from western kashmir through himachal pradesh and utter anchal, into nepal. much of this activity will die off as the sun sets... but i'm watching for the potential development of an overnight rain/storm complex somewhere in the western himalayas. apart from that, heavy rain chances will remain strong through thursday, as deep tropical moisture and favorable upper-air conditions persist. we've already picked up 5.25" (13.3cm) of rain since friday afternoon, and we could easily double that during the next 72 hours. in between bouts of rain, we'll still see a few glimpses of sunshine, but not enough to dry things out... clouds and fog will always be close behind...

MONDAY NIGHT: a few showers this evening, and then a chance of more rain and thunder developing overnight.
low: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. more heavy rain possible.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of clouds and fog again... along with occasional rain and thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with some fog. some rain (and thunder) still likely.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a few rain showers around... a bit warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a thundershower, mainly during the afternoon. muggy.
high: 23C (74F)

monday morning>

cloudy, foggy and 19c/66f early this morning. flying blind... as there is no new data to sift through this morning... satellite photos are not coming in either, for some reason. so, won't make any changes to the going forecast. we've had no new rainfall overnight, but the next round of rain and thundershowers could develop at any time today, with subsequent rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall still likely through much of the coming week. we may get lucky and see the occasional glimpse of sunshine from time to time, but for the most part, it looks like this is going to be one of those weeks when it is a challenge to get the laundry/washing to dry out. i have shirts that have been hanging on the balcony since yesterday afternoon, and they're still dripping wet.!! haha.

we had 2.6" (6.6cm) of rain over the weekend. a conservative forecast would call for an additional 4-5" (10-13cm) between now and thursday. check back here for any necessary updates throughout the day...

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with more rain and possible thundershowers developing.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY NIGHT: periods of rain likely. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
low: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY: clouds, fog, and periods of rain. heavy rainfall possible.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: still mostly cloudy and foggy. more off and on rain is likely.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: perhaps some peeks of sunshine... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some showers.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of a few rainshowers.
high: 21C (70F)

Sunday, July 18, 2010

sunday evening>

we had off and on light rain showers until about 1pm today... but the rest of the afternoon was dry, and the evening has been dry thus far as well. today's high temp at the weathergeek office was near 21c/70f, thanks to a few minutes of sunshine here and there during the afternoon. the satellite pic is currently showing quite a bit of cloudiness and fog across himachal pradesh, but very little in the way of showers or storms. that will most likely change overnight, however, with the next round of rain expected to increase and intensify as we move into the new week. for the first time this monsoon season, deep moisture has now saturated all levels of the atmosphere, and the dry air in the mid- and upper levels that was giving us a few "grace days" is pretty much gone. it will not rain continuously for the next 5 days, but expect periodic rainy (and possibly thundery) episodes, that could deposit an inch or more of rain in just a few hours. when it's not raining, the clouds and fog will dominate. from where we stand this moment, these conditions appear to be here to stay...

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy, with a good chance of more rain and/or thundershowers developing overnight.
low: 18C (65F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with occasional fog. periods of rain likely, with a thundershower or two possible as well.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain, heavy at times.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: more rain likely... otherwise cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with still a good chance of occasional rain and thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: scattered showers and thundershowers. mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 21C (70F)

sunday morning>

light to moderate rain has been falling virtually all night long, and continues as of 620am, along with a temperature of 18c/65f. the satellite photo early this morning shows a few areas of rain and thundershowers scattered from western kashmir into central himachal pradesh, and it appears that they are drifting very slowly toward the south. what does NOT show up well on the infrared satellite pics is the warmer, low level moisture that is providing fuel for the persistent rains overnight. check this space for an overnight rainfall total later this morning...

**UPDATE** rainfall from yesterday afternoon at 3pm until around 7am this morning was just 1/2 inch (1.3cm)... but that gives us a total of 2.55" (6.5cm) since friday afternoon.**

there is no indication that the wet pattern of the past 36 hours is going to ease. in fact, the latest computer models continue to increase rain probabilities and amounts... right into wednesday. any reprieve between now and then will likely be short lived, and glimpses of sunshine will be quickly over-powered by the very deep tropical moisture which will keep lots of clouds and fog around. as mentioned yesterday, we could easily see a total of 8+ inches (20cm+) by the time this latest surge of the monsoon winds down. temperatures will move very little, and remain mostly in the 17-21C (64-70F) range for the next several days.

SUNDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain. a thunderstorm or two also possible.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with fog. off and on rainshowers likely.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: periods of rain and possible thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall a good bet. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: periods of moderate to heavy rain. cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: more monsoon madness. clouds, fog, rain (some heavy).
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. still a good chance of occasional rain showers around the area.
high: 21C (69F)

Saturday, July 17, 2010

saturday evening>

full-on monsoon conditions have got a grip on us. visibility at the weathergeek office this evening is exactly zero... in thick fog. we've picked up 0.80" (2cm) of rain since late last night, for a total of 2.05" (5.2cm) since yesterday afternoon. the high temp this afternoon was 21c/69f at the top of mcleod ganj.

some remarkable data has been coming in today, derived from various computer guidance that models different levels of the atmosphere, and comes up with a forecast solution. there is general agreement that we are in for a very wet stretch of weather which will last for at least the next five days. tropical moisture will have an unrestricted flow into northern india, and will be lifted and condensed out in the form of occasional heavy rain as it runs up against the mountains. it is possible that we could pick up more than 8 inches of rain between now and wednesday night (that's 20+cm). so... the bottom line is this: take a breath and prepare for a bit of a deluge during the coming several days...

SATURDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with more rain likely, with some thunder possible as well.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. good chance of occasional rain and thundershowers.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely. chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: continued cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunderstorms.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: more rain likely... heavy at times. cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: no signs of relief... clouds, fog and rain continue.
high: 20C (68F)

saturday morning>

it's 19c/66f... with clouds, fog and light rain just past 6am. thundershowers rumbled throughout the night, and the views from the satellite show large clusters of rain and thundershowers covering most of himachal pradesh and uttar anchal. this onslaught of rainy weather has come in much more quickly than expected... in fact a full 48 hours ahead of one of the most reliable computer models. it seems we're making up for lost time after 3 full days without rain earlier this week!

**UPDATE** rainfall overnight and this morning (up til 9am) was 0.70" (1.8cm)... that gives us a total of 1.95" (5cm) in the past 24 hours.**

periods of rain and thundershowers will occur on and off both today and sunday, but then it looks like we could see some steady, heavier rains develop on monday through wednesday, as a deep, organized surge of tropical moisture interacts with a disturbance in the upper atmosphere. heavy rainfall totals will become more and more likely... with 6 inches (15cm) not at all out of the question by the middle of next week. we may see glimpses of sun from time to time this weekend, but there is so much moisture around... clouds and fog will never be too far away. temps will be nearly stationary in the 18-22C (65-72F) range both day and night...

SATURDAY: periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm this morning, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms again in the afternoon. mostly cloudy, foggy and cooler.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a thundershower or two.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: a few peeks of sunshine possible in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: periods of rain, along with lots of clouds and fog.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: cloudy, foggy and rainy.
high: 20C (68F)

Friday, July 16, 2010

friday evening>

our 3 and a half day dry spell came to an end in fine fashion this afternoon, with exactly one inch (2.5cm) of rain falling between 330 and 530pm. the high temp at the top of mcleod ganj was 23c/73f, with clouds and fog for the vast majority of the day. the satellite pics this evening show isolated thundershowers over himachal pradesh, with more widespread rain and thunderstorm action to our southeast across uttar anchal and eastern uttar pradesh. moderate rain continues as of 7pm... so look for an updated rainfall total here later this evening.

*today's official rainfall total as of 9pm is 1.25" (3.2 cm).

conditions for more consistent rainfall will continue to improve during the next 48 hours or so. deep tropical moisture is making a move, and temps in the upper atmosphere are cooling just enough to create a good amount of instability. computer models are very aggressive with rainfall totals between sunday and wednesday... in some cases predicting 6 inches (15cm) as an average throughout the kangra district. computer guidance is often out-to-lunch, but it is at least an indication that heavy rainfall potential is returning in full force during the next several days. temperatures will continue to cool down gradually, day by day, in response to the increasing rain chances. all in all... expect the monsoon to return to form, and all that entails...

FRIDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with a few showers before midnight. becoming partly cloudy late.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy in the morning... mostly cloudy and foggy by noon. good chance of a period or two of thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: still a bit of morning sun possible, but clouds and fog will be on the increase again by noon, with a good chance of thundershowers developing.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy, foggy and cool with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: more rain likely, with mostly cloudy skies and periods of fog.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: still a good chance of rain, along with clouds, fog, and cool temps.
high: 20C (68F)

friday morning>

partly cloudy and 19c/67f just before 6am on this friday morning. the last time we had four days in a row without measurable rain was 24-27 MAY.!.. but if today turns out to be rainless, we will match that streak. the satellite pics are a little more active this morning than they've been recently. there are a few light showers showing up this morning between shimla and manali, with a few thunderstorms over uttar anchal. this is an indication that the atmosphere is starting to get a bit more unstable.

we do expect to see more clouds and thick fog develop again today... but starting today... we will have better chances of some showers and thunderstorms developing. that rain probability will gradually increase each and every day through the weekend into early next week, as we ease back into a more normal phase of the monsoon. there is so much moisture in the air now... any thundershowers that occur could dump an inch or more (2.5cm+) of rain in a very short period of time. expect temperatures to trend downward during the next few days... thanks to the rain...

FRIDAY: a little sunshine this morning.... then mostly cloudy and foggy with a thundershower possible this afternoon. muggy!
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog... chance of a thundershower or two.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: brief early morning sun, then mostly cloudy and foggy. better chance of a few thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: more clouds and fog, with periods of rain likely. cooler.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: rain likely. cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, July 15, 2010

july stats>

today marks the middle of july. here are the weather stats thus far:

* total rainfall: 12.58" (32cm)
* heaviest rainfall: 2.35" (6cm) on tuesday, 6 july.
* maximum temp: 24.9C (76.8F) on friday, 2 july.
* minimum temp: 15.6C (60.1F) on tuesday, 6 july.

the official monsoon onset date was sunday, 4 july. this was approximately 6 days later than the average date. in general, monsoon conditions have been weaker than normal thus far.

keep in mind that official temperatures are observed in upper mcleod ganj, just slightly below the mountaineering center, and 3 minutes walk below tushita. temps in the mountains vary widely... so you will need to add or subtract temps from the weathergeek forecast for your area. a general rule is this:

lower mcleod ganj: +2C (4-5F)
near library: +3C (6-7F)
dharamsala: +5C (10-11F)
lower dharamsala: +7C (13-15F)
dharamkot and naddi: -1C (2F)
bhagsu: +1C (2F)

please contact me if you have an accurate max/min thermometer, or a rain gauge, so we can gather more comprehensive weather information across the area. THANKS!!

thursday evening>

clouds, thick fog and a few sprinkles around the area this evening... after a high temp early this afternoon at the weathergeek office of 24c/76f. today has been pretty much a xerox copy of yesterday... with some sun in the early morning... an increase of fog and clouds during the mid-day, and then a totally overcast and foggy afternoon and evening. the only difference is that we did pick up a few rain drops late this afternoon, but not enough to measure.

currently, the satellite pics are showing some thundershower action down around shimla... and other scattered showers and storms between delhi and dehra dun. this, along with trends shown on the computer guidance models, point to a gradually increasing probability of rain as we move into the weekend. deep monsoon moisture is again pushing northwestward into the area, and cooler temperatures in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere are showing signs of returning. this is a classic combination for heavy rain here along the foothills of the himalayas. we'll have to wait til sunday to really get back into a rainy pattern (which could continue for several days), but in the meantime, prepare for better chances of afternoon thundershowers in addition to all the clouds and fog...

THURSDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog this evening, with a few sprinkles/light showers around. clearing late.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: glimpses of morning sunshine, followed by increasing clouds and fog by noon. chance of a shower or thundershower during the PM. very muggy.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy, with a better chance of some thundershowers around. muggy, but a bit cooler.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of occasional showers, and possibly a thunderstorm.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain likely. cooler.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cool, with more clouds, more fog, more rain...
high: 20C (68F)

thursday morning>

mostly clear skies and 19c/66f just past 6am. the last time we had three days in a row without measurable rain was back on 17-19 june, and we have a shot at matching that rainless streak today. there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, which will manifest in the form of clouds and fog by noon, but it is quite warm and stable aloft... and that will tend to squash the development of any significant shower/thundershower action. so, expect plenty of cloudy and foggy gloom during the afternoon hours both today and tomorrow, but only a small chance of any rain. changes are on the way for the weekend, however. another deep, rich, thick, juicy blob of monsoon moisture will sneak northwestward into our area, while temperatures aloft cool down a bit. that instability is expected to return us to a wetter pattern which will last into at least the middle of next week...

THURSDAY: sunshine this morning... then becoming cloudy and foggy by the afternoon. an isolated thundershower is possible.
high:26C (78F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: slight chance of an evening shower. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy... with some clearing late.
low: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY: a bit of AM sunshine... then mostly cloudy and foggy. chance of a thundershower by mid-afternoon.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: some peeks of sun in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy. a better chance of a thundershower or two during the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog... along with off and on thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely. cool.
high: 21C (69F)

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

wednesday evening>

our beautiful early morning turned into a gloomy afternoon, as sunshine yielded to thickening clouds and fog. the high temp at the top of mcleod ganj reached 24c/75f around 1pm. despite all the gloom this afternoon, there was zero rain again... we're now at 48 hours with no more than a drop or two. generally rain-less weather will continue for another couple of days, as we remain stuck in a very weak phase of the monsoon. there is always a chance of a stray thundershower during the afternoons this time of year, but organized disturbances teamed with deep tropical moisture aren't expected to return until sometime this weekend. temperatures will continue to warm up through friday, with some sunshine in the morning, and lots of clouds and fog during the afternoons and evenings. hold tight for the next major round of rainfall which could begin on saturday, and increase through the first few days of next week...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: thick clouds and fog this evening... gradually giving way to mostly clear skies overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: another nice morning with sunshine and warm temps. increasing clouds and fog by noon, with a chance of a thundershower during the afternoon.
high: 25C (77F)

FRIDAY: some morning sun, then mostly cloudy and foggy by mid-day, with that chance of an afternoon thundershower again.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy in the morning... cloudy and foggy in the afternoon with a better chance of some thundershowers developing.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: cloudy, foggy, and cooler, with periods of rain and a few thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy, foggy and rainy. cooler.
high: 21C (69F)

wednesday morning>

waking up to 18c/64f and 100% clear skies before sunrise this morning. we'll get to enjoy some sunshine during the morning hours, but skies will quickly fill with clouds and possibly some fog before noon. we're lacking the dynamics for widespread and consistent monsoon rains, but there is plenty of moisture in the air which will respond to the warmth of the sun, and condense into clouds. the pattern over the next few days points towards scattered/occasional showers and thundershowers (mainly during the afternoon hours), and a gradual increase in temperatures. the monsoon over northern india will remain rather weak for several days, so it looks doubtful that we'll have extended periods of rain for awhile...

WEDNESDAY: sunny early this morning, but becoming mostly cloudy by noon with a good chance of a few thundershowers developing.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: evening thundershowers possible, then becoming clear to partly cloudy.
low: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and warmer, with a chance of a thundershower during the afternoon.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine. rather warm and humid with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a better chance of some showers and thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rainshowers likely.
high: 23C (73F)

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

tuesday evening>

some peeks of sunshine early this morning gave way to an overcast day with some thick fog at times, but shockingly... not more than a drop or two of rain. the high temp at the weathergeek office was just 21C (69F). as alluded to this morning, it appears that our latest batch of monsoon moisture has prematurely fizzled. warmer temps in the upper atmosphere are partially responsible for this, cutting off the instability, despite the presence of plenty of moisture.

however, there is still a strongly mentionable chance of some rain or a thunderstorm or two developing overnight, and through the day wednesday, before some drier air works its way in for the latter part of the week. deep tropical moisture will retreat to our south and east, and temperatures will warm up... before that moisture surges back into the area starting on saturday. who said monsoon season is boring??

TUESDAY NIGHT: fog giving way to partly cloudy skies, with a chance of some showers or a thunderstorm developing overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

WEDNESDAY: a period of rain or thundershowers possible... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and not as cool. patchy fog at times.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of AM sun, then becoming mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a thundershower in the afternoon. warmer.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun. rather warm and humid, with a chance of a brief thundershower during the PM.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: a little morning sun, then mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with some rain and thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

tuesday morning>

partly cloudy skies and a COOL 16c/60f before sunrise this morning. starting to get the impression that our latest batch of monsoon moisture has fizzled. we were expecting rain and thunderstorms to re-fire overnight, but the limited satellite data available this morning shows very little active weather going on across northern india. the computer models are still showing the potential for some good rains both today and wednesday... so we'll hold out for that redevelopment to occur, probably by towards mid-day, into the afternoon. it's possible we could still pick up another couple of inches of rain (5cm) before this system totally clears out late tomorrow. thursday and friday are still looking relatively dry... with only hit and miss showers at best... but rain chances will be on the increase again on saturday...

TUESDAY: partly cloudy this morning... but becoming mostly cloudy with some fog by mid-day. good chance of more rain and a few thunderstorms developing. cool-ish.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a few rainshowers possible.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: some peeks of sunshine, but still a good chance of a few showers and storms around.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy skies with just a slight chance of a PM thundershower. warmer.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun. pleasantly warm, but more humid. an isolated afternoon thundershower is possible.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: becoming mostly cloudy with some fog. better chance of rain.
high: 23C (73F)

Monday, July 12, 2010

monday evening>

it's been a very wet monday... fog, thunder and rain enveloped mcleod ganj by 9am, with a period of very heavy rain for a couple of hours in the mid-morning. light rain has been on and off throughout the day, but has stopped for now. total rainfall up to the minute is 1.80" (4.6cm), which gives us a total of 3.55" (9cm) since yesterday afternoon. temps have been in the mid-60sF (17-19C) all day.

we do have a break in the action at the moment, but more rain is expected to develop overnight and tuesday. in fact, this latest surge of moisture won't retreat until perhaps early wednesday, so additional bouts of heavy rain are a good possibility. if you're getting tired of wet laundry, you can look forward to thursday and friday when we may see enough sunshine and drier air to assist. temps will stay cool through tomorrow, but some warmer temps (and unfortunately, more steaminess) are on the way for the latter half of the week...

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of more rain and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. rather cool.
low: 17C (62F)

TUESDAY: periods of rain and thundershowers likely. mostly cloudy with some fog at times. cool.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: some light rain in the morning... then becoming partly cloudy with a chance of an afternoon thundershower. not as cool.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: some sunshine in the morning. mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a thundershower possible.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine, with just a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower. quite warm and humid.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 24C (75F)

monday morning>

lots of action around us early on this monday morning. numerous thunderstorms are rumbling from lower dharamsala southward through chandigarh and ambala. no rain in mcleod ganj (as of 6am), but there is thunder, and skies are black just to the south. the advertised mass of tropical moisture is now moving into northern india, and we expect rain and thunderstorm activity to become much more widespread during the next 48 hours or so. this moisture is ramming up against the mountains from nepal, all the way into himachal pradesh... and along this line, several inches of rain will be likely by wednesday morning. a return to drier weather is likely for the latter half of the week, along with a bit of a warming trend.

rainfall tally>
*past week: 7.85" (19.9cm)
*july total: 10.78" (27.4cm)

MONDAY: a few glimpses of sun early... otherwise mostly cloudy with periods of fog. rain and some thunderstorms moving in.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY NIGHT: cloudy with rain likely. a thunderstorm possible as well.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunderstorms. cool.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: rain likely in the morning, then some clearing PM.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and warmer. just a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and muggy, with a few PM showers and storms.
high: 24C (76F)

Sunday, July 11, 2010

sunday evening>

what a variety of weather we've had today... a few light showers (and some thunder) early this morning, a blast of stunning sunshine between 11am and noon, another brief thundershower shortly after 1pm, another few peeks of sunshine, and then BAM... a huge thunderstorm with heavy rain and some wind which started just after 3pm, and finally ended around 5pm. the official total from near the dalai lama's temple in mcleod ganj was 1.75" (4.5cm).

we're in the midst of a lull in the action again early this evening, but the satellite pics and computer model guidance are showing some ominous signs. a big cluster of thunderstorms is moving east-southeast from pakistan into western kashmir and punjab, and if it holds together, could move into our area after dark. in addition, deep moisture is continuing to surge northwestward, and will fuel a more consistent period of rain from monday through tuesday. this morning's computer models were delaying this surge a bit, but the latest data is back on track with delivering the heaviest rains from tomorrow into early tuesday. if this event truly materializes, then rainfall in excess of 3" (7.5cm) is almost guaranteed. then... expect a return to drier and warmer weather from the middle into the latter part of the week...

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a good chance of more rain and thunderstorms moving in late.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. thick fog possible at times, with cooler temps.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cloudy, foggy and cool with more rain likely.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: a few lingering showers still possible... but some sunshine returns, with temps warming a bit.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and warmer with only a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds... rather warm and muggy with an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 24C (76F)

sunday morning>

waking up to a muggy 19C/66F. the satellite picture this morning shows thundershowers scattered along the front ranges of the himalayas from western kashmir through himachal pradesh and utter anchal into nepal, with a cluster of very heavy rain and storms over uttar pradesh and parts of western nepal. we've already had some thunder and a few light rain showers early this morning, and can expect more of that off and on through the morning hours. the trend during the next couple of days will be toward increasing amounts of moisture, and heavier, more consistent rains, as deeper tropical air continues to surge in our direction. computer models this morning are a little slower bringing in the heavier rains... now holding off until late monday and tuesday. this latest computer model run could be a fluke, so we'll just have to keep a close eye on how things develop during the next 12-18 hours or so.

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies with scattered thundershowers likely. some patchy fog at times.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a few showers and thundershowers likely.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: cloudy with some fog. periods of rain likely, possibly heavy at times. chance of thunder as well.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of moderate to heavy rain. cool.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and not as cool. still a few showers possible.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, rather warm and humid. just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

Saturday, July 10, 2010

saturday evening>

a brief thundershower early this morning, and another early this afternoon... along with a few very light showers during the later afternoon hours only delivered 0.3" (7mm) of rain today. although the high temp was a comfortable 23C/74F, it was very muggy, which made it feel warmer when the sun was peeking out.

we're still bracing for some much more significant rainfall in the near future. the satellite pic is rather benign at the moment, showing very little shower and thunderstorm activity in the area, but that will change during the next 24 hours. deep tropical moisture will surge in from the south-southeast, while a series of upper-air disturbances slide in from the northwest. this combinations spells a period of moderate to heavy rainfall starting sometime sunday, and continuing through tuesday. it still looks possible that we could receive 3-4" (7-10cm) of rain by the time it winds down during the middle of next week. temps will cool down as the rainfall intensity increases. it looks like we'll dry out a bit starting on wednesday.

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of a shower this evening, and then a chance of thundershowers developing late.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies. humid with some fog likely. increasing chances of rain, along with some thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of heavy rain likely. a thunderstorm possible as well.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cloudy with more rain likely. cool.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: some sunshine returns. not as cool, but a chance of scattered showers.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and warmer, with just a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

saturday morning>

we've already had a thundershower early this morning... between 4 and 5am. it's 18c/65f with mostly cloudy skies just before sunrise. the satellite pic shows a few little thundershowers scattered across himachal pradesh this morning, but it is also showing clear skies working their way eastward into the area. so, it looks like we've got a mixed bag forecast this morning, with a bit of sun, along with a risk of a passing thundershower.

rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the rise from this afternoon, right through the early part of next week. computer models are still gradually increasing our available moisture and instability, which means that these occasional thundershowers will give way to more widespread and consistent rains during the next 48 hours or so. we can also expect periods of fog, as our humidity level gets close to 100% at times. all in all, typical monsoon weather for the next few days...

*rainfall on friday afternoon measured just 0.20" (5mm).*

SATURDAY: some peeks of sun, some fog possible, with a chance of a thundershower this morning. better chance of some showers and storms during the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a few thundershowers possible.
low: 19C (66F)

SUNDAY: becoming mostly cloudy and foggy. periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy with areas of fog. rain and a few thunderstorms likely. heavy rain possible.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain (heavy at times) and a few thunderstorms. cool.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: some sunshine returns... but still a chance of a few showers. not as cool.
high: 22C (72F)

Friday, July 9, 2010

friday evening>

thundershowers have been rumbling around since about 1:20 this afternoon... but the rain has been very occasional, and on the light side. we've also had a few periods of thick fog today, as the humidity has been flirting with 100%. the high temp this afternoon in upper mcleod ganj was 24c/76f.

get ready for more rain as we head into the weekend... in fact, heavy rain is looking more and more likely for sunday and monday. a healthy surge of tropical moisture, in conjunction with a fairly strong disturbance in the upper atmosphere will bring periods of rain and even some thunderstorms to northern india. rainfall amounts of 3-4" (7-10cm) are a good bet. humidity will stay very high, which will keep fog (dense at times) in the forecast as well. our next breather from extreme wetness could occur by mid-late tuesday and wednesday of next week...

FRIDAY NIGHT: still a few showers this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. humid.
low: 19C (66F)

SATURDAY: a few peeks of sun in the early morning, then becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms. muggy.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: cloudy with some fog. rain is likely, along with a thunderstorm or two. heavy rainfall amounts possible.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: clouds and fog with more rain (heavy at times) likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: rain likely in the morning, with some clearing possible by late in the day.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies with a chance of one or two afternoon showers. not as cool.
high: 22C (72F)

friday morning>

already quite humid and sticky early this morning, with a temp of 19c/67f. there's a scattering of clouds around... and the satellite photo shows a few patches of cloudiness, but no organized areas of rain or thunderstorms across northern india. as things warm up toward mid-day, there's a good chance that a few showers or thundershowers will develop... but we're still not looking at widespread, heavy rainfall for another day or two at least. some drier air from the northwest has invaded the upper levels of the atmosphere again, and that should prevent any long-lasting and steady rains from moving back in... until possibly sunday or monday. temperatures will remain a bit warmer than they were earlier in the week, and the humidity will stay high as well. even without rain, it's obvious that this monsoon moisture is already infiltrating pillows and blankets and clothes and towels, etc....

FRIDAY: partly cloudy in the morning, mostly cloudy by afternoon. foggy and humid, with a few showers or a thundershower possible.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
low: 19C (66F)

SATURDAY: some morning sunshine possible, otherwise mostly cloudy and muggy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy, humid, with periods of fog. rain likely, along with some thunder.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: cool. clouds and fog with more rain...
high: 19C (67F)

Thursday, July 8, 2010

thursday evening>

sunshine this morning transitioned into heavy cloud cover during the afternoon and evening, but as of 6pm, we've only had a couple of sprinkles. the high temp this afternoon at the weathergeek office was 24c/76f, which was a bit warmer than expected. after our deluge earlier this week, it's been nice to have a break in the wet weather, but that will probably not last much longer. it appears that rain chances will gradually be on the increase during the next couple of days, with current indications pointing to more heavy rain on sunday and monday. computer models are showing the potential for 2-3" (6-8cm) during that period, so keep that in mind. temperatures will remain pleasantly warm for another day or two, but the humidity will make it seem warmer. we'll cool off considerably by sunday with the arrival of more consistent rains...

THURSDAY NIGHT: small chance of a shower or thundershower overnight, otherwise partly cloudy and mild.
low: 18C (65F)

FRIDAY: some morning sun, followed by afternoon clouds. chance of some showers and maybe a thunderstorm popping up. humid.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a better chance of rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two. humid, but cooler.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. heavy rain possible.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: clouds and some fog, with periods of rain. cool-ish.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: some sunshine returns... but still a chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

thursday morning>

yes... we are getting to enjoy a nice break in the rain, after quite a soggy start to the monsoon season. the first seven days of july brought 8.43" (21.4cm) of rain. this morning it is partly cloudy and 17c/63f, with the satellite photo showing very little in the way of inclement weather across northern india. it is likely that clouds will thicken up and a few showers or thundershowers will form by this afternoon, but we aren't expecting anything like we saw from monday night through wednesday morning. rain chances WILL gradually increase through the weekend into early next week, however, as deeper moisture surges back into the area. each day from friday through monday will bring a chance of progressively heavier rainfall once again. in the meantime, enjoy the glimpses of sunshine and pleasant temperatures...

THURSDAY: partly cloudy this morning. becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon with a few showers or a thundershower possible.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: slight chance of a thundershower, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: some sunshine in the morning, but mostly cloudy with some showers or thundershowers likely in the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with periods of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.
high: 19C (67F)

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

wednesday evening>

after 40 hours of nearly continuous rain... we are getting a beautiful respite this evening. the total rainfall from 930pm monday night until around 1pm this afternoon was 5.7" (14.5cm). the satellite pic shows clear to partly cloudy skies across all of himachal pradesh this evening... but there is an area of rain and thundershowers to our south across southern punjab, haryana and northern rajasthan. there is a chance that some of that action could drift northward into our area overnight, but upper-level winds are almost calm... which means there will be very little movement of this area of precipitation. be on the lookout for a redevelopment of clouds, fog and rain tomorrow... with rain chances gradually increasing again as we head into the weekend. the high temp hit 21c/69f this afternoon with the return of some sunshine... and we expect slightly warmer temps (but increasing mugginess) both tomorrow and friday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies with only a slight chance of some showers developing after midnight.
low: 17C (63F)

THURSDAY: some sunshine in the morning... but then increasing clouds and fog, with a good chance of some rain and thundershowers by the early afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional rainshowers. fog possible at times.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a little sun... otherwise mostly cloudy with a better chance of rain.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with occasional fog. periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: cloudy with some fog... rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 19C (67F)

wednesday morning>

we've had some truly serious rainfall during the past 36 hours or so, and it continues to fall early on this wednesday morning. as of 9pm last night, the 24 hour total was about 3.5" (8.9cm), but overnight rains i'm sure have added considerably to that tally. there are indications that the rain could abate somewhat later today, into thursday and friday. that doesn't mean it will end altogether, but that it could become more occasional, and less heavy. then it appears we could be in for another major dumping over the weekend. monsoon conditions have been declared "vigorous" over himachal pradesh...no kidding!!

the temp early this morning is only 16c/61f, without sunshine it will be hard for us to warm up more than just a few degrees. still looking for a return to the low 70s (f) toward the end of the week, with the return of a little sunshine here and there...

WEDNESDAY: periods of rain, with lots of clouds and fog. chance of some brief sunshine during the afternoon.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a few periods of rain.
low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY: good chance of occasional rainshowers. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some fog.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few rainshowers likely. humid and foggy.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a good chance of occasional showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with a better chance of more steady, heavy rain again...
high: 21C (70F)

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

tuesday evening>

the monsoon is officially covering all of india as of today. rain has been virtually non-stop since the wee hours of the morning... giving us a total of 3.05" (7.7cm) in the past 24 hours. AND... it's still raining moderately at 6pm. the satellite pic this evening shows a wide area of rain and embedded thunderstorms extending from northern rajasthan through haryana and punjab into himachal pradesh. computer guidance models show the potential for a gradual diminishing of the rain as we move into the latter half of the week, but then an increase in rainfall potential again over the weekend. during monsoon, a break in the rain of 12-24 hours is common (and not unwelcome), but as i mentioned yesterday, glimpses of sunshine will only heat things up enough to contribute to the development of more clouds and fog and eventually, rain. the high temp this afternoon was only around 17c/63f... the coldest day since MARCH!! with any luck, we'll warm back up to 21c/70f or more before the week is out...

TUESDAY NIGHT: cloudy with rain continuing. cool, with periods of fog.
low: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain likely. chance of a thunderstorm as well.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: a peek or two of sun? otherwise mostly cloudy with a good chance of off and on rainshowers.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: still mostly cloudy. occasional rainshowers.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain. a thunderstorm possible.
high: 22C (72F)

tuesday morning>

17c/63f and raining early this morning. rain began at around 930pm, and has continued non-stop all night long. 1.1" (2.8cm) had already fallen by 11pm last night... so the total overnight will most definitely be in excess of 2" (5cm)... official total will be posted later this morning.

**UPDATE** thanks to my good friends gerrie and mary and their highly professional precipitation monitoring skills> the rainfall tally up to 730am is 2.2".

areas of rain and thunderstorms cover a large part of northwest india just before sunrise. upper winds are very light, so movement of the cloud-bearing rains is very slow, or non-existent at times. that flow of rich, tropical air will continue today, so more periods of rain and thundershowers are likely. during monsoon time, breaks in the rain and peeks of sunshine only serve to fire up the atmosphere again for the next round of rainfall... and we will have a few of those breaks from time to time this week... only to be followed by more periods of heavy rain. temperatures will be quite cool, which is one of the PLUS factors of monsoon season...

*HAPPY 75th BIRTHDAY TO HH THE DALAI LAMA*

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with a few periods of fog. rain this morning, then a chance of more rain and possibly a thundershower this afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with more rain likely. a thunderstorm is possible.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds and fog, with periods of rain and thundershowers likely again.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: some sunshine possible... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a few scattered rainshowers.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy skies with a few periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of some rain, and possibly an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 23C (73F)

Monday, July 5, 2010

monday evening>

the official monsoon onset for 2010 has now been declared for ALL of india, except for about the western two thirds of rajasthan. as expected, that northern limit line literally flew across all of northern india in just the past 2 days. ironically, on this, the first official day of monsoon in mcleod ganj, we only had a few sprinkles of rain. the large area of rain and thunderstorms this morning slipped just to our east during the day, delivering heavy rains to the eastern part of our state, and across much of uttar anchal. monsoon lovers should take heart, however... very thick and rich moisture is now in place across the area, and we'll be seeing plenty of rain during the coming 48 hours. earlier there was some indication of a bit of a retreat of monsoon moisture during the latter part of the week, but it now appears that we'll be seeing that high humidity and heavy rain potential right through the next 5 days...

75th birthday celebrations for HH the dalai lama are scheduled for 9am tomorrow morning at the temple. but, there's a good chance we could be dealing with a rainy morning...

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a good chance of some rain and thunderstorms developing. pleasant temps, but humid.
low: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with some areas of fog. periods of rain likely, along with a chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy, foggy and humid, with more rain and a few thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy. humid with areas of fog. good chance of more rain.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: monsoon weather will be firmly entrenched. clouds, some fog, good chance of rain.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: more clouds and fog with periods of rain.
high: (22C (72F)

monday morning>

as if 2.7" (6.9cm) of rain over the weekend wasn't enough... we have lots more on the way between now and wednesday. it's overcast and 18c/64f early on this monday morning. the satellite pic is showing a huge cluster of thunderstorms just to our south, extending from southern parts of himachal pradesh through chandigarh, all the way down to the delhi area and eastern uttar pradesh. all of this moisture will be lifting to the north throughout the day. periods of rain and thundershowers will be likely all the way through wednesday, with heavy rainfall amounts and periods of fog expected. the india meteorological department is saying that monsoon conditions will cover virtually all of india within the next couple of days. however, we do expect a bit of a respite by the latter part of the week, when our rain chances will diminish temporarily. despite the humidity... temps for the duration will be comfortably cool.

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and cool with a good chance of rain and a few thunderstorms. fog is also likely at times.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY NIGHT: periods of rain and a some thunderstorms likely. mostly cloudy and foggy.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: clouds and fog, with rain likely. chance of a thunderstorm as well.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: still mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rain is likely again.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: a bit more sun returns. but still some clouds and fog, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

Sunday, July 4, 2010

sunday evening>

it matters not that there has been no official monsoon declaration yet from the IMD. we had another 1.3" (3.3cm) of rain today, and were completely socked in with fog for a couple of hours during the early afternoon. more rain and thunderstorms may move into the area later this evening and overnight, as a huge surge of tropical moisture from the south interacts with upper-air disturbances dropping in from the north and west. we have a soggy forecast for the next few days... with periods of rain along with rumbles of thunder, combined with periods of near 100% humidity which will contribute to some thick fog at times. we could get 1-2" of rain each and every day through wednesday. there are indications that it could dry out just a bit by the latter part of the week, but we'll have to wait til sometime in mid-september to REALLY dry out. the trade-off is that temperatures will be rather cool from here on out...

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a chance of some rain or a thunderstorm again late.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and cool, with periods of fog. off and on heavy rain showers are likely, along with a thunderstorm or two.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: more clouds... more fog... more rain.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer. but still a chance of a few showers.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: a bit of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with a good chance of occasional showers.
high: 23C (73F)