the latest...

**Sunrise Thursday -- we have mostly clear skies, with a pleasantly mild temp near 63ºF/17ºC. Forecast details are on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above...

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

tuesday evening>

after our mammoth rains last night and again early this morning, it has been dry today (so far). we have thick fog and clouds just before sunset... and the high temp in upper mcleod ganj has been 20.5C/69F.

there is nothing too menacing showing up on the satellite pics at the moment, but we have a totally saturated airmass, and there are weak disturbances visible in the upper-air flow. that means the next round of rain and thunder could materialize at any time. our volatile weather situation will remain in place right through this week, with periods of rain likely... and some of it will be heavy. there will also be a glimpse of sun here and there, but clouds and fog will dominate... assuring us that we are indeed still firmly in the grips of the mighty 2010 monsoon season. i will have detailed stats for the month of august later tonight or tomorrow morning. the rainfall total near the main temple is already in excess of 40" (102cm)...

TUESDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with a good chance of more rain and/or thundershowers developing overnight.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: clouds, fog, periods of rain. cool.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: periods of rain still likely... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: a bit of morning sun... then mostly cloudy and foggy. good chance of scattered showers.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog. good chance of more mainly PM showers.
high: 22C (71F)

tuesday morning>

dark as pitch and 18C/65F early this morning. we have thick clouds, thick fog, some thunder, and more rain moving in even as i type. i had an additional 0.28" (0.7cm) overnight, for a total of 1.48" (3.8cm) since last evening around 6pm. as i posted last night, our observers near the main temple received 3.35" (8.5cm) just during the 3 hours of rain last evening... an indication of the wide variability that can occur with these heavy downpours.

**UPDATE @ 745AM** rainfall totals since 6pm last evening:
-near main temple... 6.85" (17.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 3.98" (10.1cm)
-naddi village... 2.95" (7.5cm)
rainfall in the past 13 hours near the main temple is the heaviest amount in the shortest time of the entire monsoon season thus far!

well... monsoon madness is definitely back. it looks like rain coverage and intensity will only increase during the next 2 or 3 days, with periods of showers, thunderstorms, and some steady rains likely. in between we may still get a peek of sunshine now and then, but the clouds and fog will dominate. be on the lookout for potential road washouts and landslides once again, as these late-season rains fall on already saturated ground...

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain and thunder.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a period of rain or thunderstorms.
low: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog. occasional rain likely, with a thunderstorm also possible.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog with periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: more rain likely... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few showers around.
high: 22C (71F)

Monday, August 30, 2010

monday evening>

totally cloudy and foggy and gloomy this monday evening... the high temp today in mcleod ganj was officially 23C/74F. apart from our thundershowers during wee hours of the morning, we've only had one or two brief showers... late this afternoon. i'm sitting on pins and needles though, as there are indication from looking at the satellite pics that we could see more rain develop across the area in the very near future.

**UPDATE @ 910pm** evening rainfall totals:
-near main temple... 3.35" (8.5cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 1.20" (3.1cm)

atmospheric dynamics are essential for rainfall... which means... temperatures must be relatively cooler in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere than they are at the surface. also, we need disturbances, or small circulations aloft, in order to instigate significant areas of rain and thunderstorms. these things have been totally lacking for about the last 5 days, however, indications point to an increase in these 'dynamics' during the next 24-48 hours... that means we have a better and better chance to see monsoon rains return to classic form, soon.

the month of august comes to an end in just 30 hours. only a bit more than 2" (5cm) is needed to reach 40" (101cm) for the month... we shall soon see if that will come to reality...

MONDAY EVENING: cloudy and foggy with showers likely... thundershowers possible as well.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: a glimpse or two of sun in the early AM, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with off and on showers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: a few peeks of sun in between fog and clouds. still some showers around.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of scattered showers.
high: 21C (70F)

monday morning>

BIG NEWS... our three day drought has come to an end. i am showing 0.55" (1.4cm) in my rain gauge this morning, most of it from a thundershower between 230 and 330am. will look forward to reports from near the main temple and naddi later this morning. currently, we have partly cloudy skies and a mild temp of 18C/64F.

**UPDATE @815am** rainfall overnight near the main temple was 0.40" (1cm).

last night i was talking about how the atmosphere had been "deadly stable" for the last few days. well... the rainfall overnight indicated that that situation is gradually changing. although none of the computer models were forecasting significant rains until tuesday, it is clear that we are already easing back into a wetter pattern. the moisture is abundant... it is mid- and upper-level dynamics that we need to crank up the rains again, and those conditions will become more apparent each day this week. there will still be a few periods of sunshine here and there, but even the sun will start to disappear again toward the middle and latter parts of the week...

MONDAY: partly cloudy early this morning. becoming mostly cloudy and foggy by mid-day, with a chance of another round of showers or thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a thundershower or two possible.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: a bit of morning sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy. good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog at times. occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with more occasional rain. rather cool.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain still likely...
high: 21C (69F)

the return of the RAIN...

a heavy thundershower has developed right on top of us here in the wee hours of the morning, ending our 3+ day streak of mostly dry weather. the satellite photo at 230am shows a lone cold-topped convective thunderhead over the kangra district...drifting slowly to the north.

rain is quite heavy at the moment... forecast details and updates coming later this morning.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

sunday evening>

our sunday is ending with mostly cloudy skies and a lot of fog. we only had a few sprinkles of rain during the mid-afternoon... so our total rainfall for the past 7 days is just 1.34" (3.4cm) in upper mcleod ganj, making this the DRIEST 7 day period since the monsoon began. today's high temp was 23C/73F.

the satellite pics this evening show nothing but clouds and fog clinging to the mountains... the upper atmosphere is absolutely deadly stable... preventing anything more than a few very light rainshowers from developing. there are still strong indications that our recent dry weather will be coming to an end soon. some disturbances and pools of cooler air aloft will stir up an increasing amount of shower and thundershower activity as we move through the coming week. some glimpses of mainly morning sunshine will remain likely for the next couple of days, but even that may disappear by the latter part of the week. this time of year, the rainless days can't last for long...

SUNDAY EVENING: chance of a shower yet this evening... otherwise gradually clearing skies.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: some morning sun will quickly give way to clouds and fog. better chance of a couple of showers or thundershowers in the PM.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny in the AM. mostly cloudy and foggy in the PM, with a good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rainshowers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy skies. periods of fog... periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

sunday morning>

mostly clear skies and 17C/63F here in the heart of paradise early this morning. rainfall during the past 24 hours has been 0.05" (1mm) near the main temple, but just 0.02" up here below the mountaineering center. the last BIG rain we had was last sunday afternoon, when around 4" (10cm) was dumped on us during the afternoon.

so... how much longer can we get away with very little rain?? our time may be running out. it looks like our chances of more substantial shower and thundershower action will be increasing day by day during this new week. sunshine will still be a very good bet during the morning hours through about tuesday or so... but clouds and fog will begin to take over even the morning skies later in the week. computer models are in agreement that by late tuesday and wednesday, we'll be back in the thick of bonafide rainy monsoony conditions. it is still likely that there are another 20-25" (50-63cm) of rain in our future.... between now and mid-september.

SUNDAY: some nice sunshine this morning. mostly cloudy and foggy by mid-day, with a few showers around. pleasantly warm temps.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: good chance of a period of showers/thundershowers in the evening. then becoming partly cloudy overnight.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: some early morning sun, followed by increasing clouds and fog. good chance of a PM shower or thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy with increasing rain chances...
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: clouds, fog, along with periods of rain.
high: 21C (70F)

Saturday, August 28, 2010

saturday evening>

it's cloudy... it's foggy... and there are a few showers scattered around the area this evening. rainfall has been very light, and barely measurable since around 2pm. we did get a couple of hours of gorgeous sunshine early this morning... and that helped boost the high temp to 23C/74F in upper mcleod ganj.

well... our rainfall amounts have certainly dropped off in a major way the last few days, but we are still getting A LOT of thick fog during the afternoons and evenings... which indicates that the monsoon moisture has not abandoned us just yet. what is lacking for heavy rainfall are significant upper-level disturbances and instability (relatively colder air aloft). these somewhat "stable" conditions will continue for another 48 hours or so, but then i'm expecting rain chances to increase once again. by tuesday and wednesday, we should be back in line for those heavy downpours that we've missed out on for most of the past week!

SATURDAY NIGHT: still a few showers around this evening. but clouds and fog will clear out before midnight.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: some morning sunshine, followed by increasing clouds and fog. good chance of an afternoon shower or two.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. good chance of a few mainly PM showers or thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: a peek or two of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with scattered showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog around. periods of rain.
high: 21C (70F)

saturday morning>

it's a mild 18C/64F before sunrise this morning. skies are partly cloudy, with no rainfall recorded overnight.

we're expecting another mixed bag today... with sunshine in the morning, clouds and fog during the afternoon, and the risk of a random shower. this rather mundane pattern will continue into monday, but after that, the potential for rainy weather will be on the increase. this morning's satellite pics are showing clusters of thunderstorms over uttar anchal and utter pradesh... this marks the edge of the really juicy tropical moisture that will gradually make its way back into our area during the coming week. in the meantime, enjoy the few hours of sunshine and warmer temperatures...

SATURDAY: periods of sunshine, periods of clouds and fog. risk of a PM shower. warmer.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: slight chance of a shower in the evening... otherwise clear to partly cloudy.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. chance of a shower or thundershower in the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: morning sun giving way to clouds and fog. scattered PM showers are possible.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog. good chance of some showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

Friday, August 27, 2010

surges and retreats...

this is the time of year when we are all tempted to think that the monsoon rains are behind us. it's easy to do... i've been through it many times. but keep this in mind:

-the average END DATE of the monsoon in mcleod ganj is 15 september.

-this year, the official onset of the monsoon was one week LATE. that means that the official end could also be later than normal...

-the nature of monsoon conditions is to "surge and retreat" during the first few weeks and the last few weeks of the season.

-our total rainfall since the beginning of july (both in upper mcleod ganj, and near the main temple) is right around 67" (170cm). on average, we get 80-100" (200-250cm) of rainfall during a typical monsoon season. that means that, most likely, we have 20+ inches (50cm) to go, between now and mid-september.

-thus far, our season has been slightly ABOVE AVERAGE. so, we might expect another 30-40" (75-85cm) before all is said and done.

just a bit of perspective. scroll down for your latest forecast...

friday evening>

if we can make it through the next 6 hours, then we will have our first totally DRY DAY since the 14th of july. that's kind of a big deal, eh?? since monday, i've recorded less than an inch and a half (3.5cm) of rain in upper mcleod ganj... with even less than that near the main temple. so... we are definitely experiencing a well deserved break-in-the-action. our few hours of sunshine this morning boosted the high temp at the weathergeek office to 22C/72F.

clouds and fog have been rather extensive across the area this afternoon and evening, but the satellite pics are showing absolutely no organized rain or storm activity... only fog and some convective clouds hanging onto the mountains. there is still a risk of a shower this evening, but skies should clear quickly after sunset. no significant changes are expected for the next 2-3 days. we'll continue to enjoy periods of sunshine in between the clouds and fog... with at least 'mentionable' chances of mainly afternoon showers or thundershowers. right now it appears that we will begin to ease back into a more rainy pattern early next week.

FRIDAY NIGHT: a slight chance of a brief shower this evening... otherwise gradually clearing skies.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY: some sunshine in the morning, and again in the late evening... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a random shower possible. pleasantly warm!
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. a shower or thundershower possible in the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: morning sunshine... clouds and fog by noon. good chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy, with periods of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely. cooler...
high: 21C (70F)

friday morning>

it's a cool-ish 16C/61F early this morning, with partly cloudy skies. the satellite photos are showing only a few mid-level clouds across most of northern india this morning, with no organized areas of rain or thunderstorm action at all.

the big question this morning is: how long will the sunshine last? yesterday the clouds and fog developed very quickly (by 9-930am) and lasted all the way into the late afternoon. we will no doubt see a build-up of clouds and fog again later this morning... as the sunshine works on the atmosphere and condenses out all the moisture in the air. a few scattered showers (and maybe a thundershower or two) will also pop up again during the mid-day, but rainfall amounts will remain relatively light, and the duration will be short. reload and repeat the above for the next few days. temperatures should gradually moderate into the weekend, but so far, we haven't had enough hours of mid-day sunshine to get a nice warm-up started...

FRIDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. good chance of a few showers, and possibly a thundershower (especially PM).
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: slight chance of an evening shower, then clear to partly cloudy.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY: periods of sun, in between occasional clouds and fog. still a risk of a shower or two.
warmer.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: periods of sun... periods of clouds. some fog as well. afternoon showers are possible.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog. better chance of a few showers or thundershowers in the PM.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. good chance of occasional rain.
high: 21C (71F)

Thursday, August 26, 2010

thursday evening>

**UPDATE @824pm** our rainfall totals have been (well) below 1" for each of the past four days. this is the first time since before the monsoon began in late june that has happened.

our thursday has featured more wild swings in the weather... 1) a mix of sun and clouds early this morning. 2) a period of thick clouds and fog starting around 930am, with a couple of periods of rain and thunder between noon and 4pm. 3) glorious sunshine during the evening. i recorded 0.21" (5mm) of rain in upper mcleod ganj, while our observers near the main temple measured just 0.10" (2.5mm). despite the sunshine at the beginning and end of the day, the high temp was only 21C /69.5F.

well... it is easy to see that we are in a very fickle period, as the monsoon enters its final 20 days. i am finding out that our available computer models are virtually useless in providing decent guidance. a couple of them have been showing ZERO rainfall... and continue to do so right through sunday. this is probably unrealistic, based on the fact that there is still enough tropical moisture lurking near enough to be drawn northward and upward against the mountains during the mid-day and afternoon hours. thus, be aware of the good potential of at least a shower or two each and every day. BUT, the plus side is that we will continue to see periods of sunshine and lower humidity as well, in between occasional clouds and fog. so, i guess the bottom line is that we are getting to taste a bit of both worlds right now: the retreating monsoon, AND the coming dry fall season.

THURSDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies. pleasantly cool.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: periods of sun and clouds, with a bit of fog possible as well. good chance of a few showers.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a good amount of sunshine, in between periods of clouds and fog. one or two showers or thundershowers possible. a bit warmer.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog. good chance of a couple of showers/thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: peeks of sun between clouds and fog. good chance of occasional showers.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with some fog. periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

thursday morning>

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy, with a few peeks of sunshine. a few showers around as well.
high: 21C (71F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: slight chance of an evening shower, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny and continuing to warm up. just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: still a good amount of sunshine, mixed with occasional clouds. an isolated afternoon shower/thundershower is possible. warmest day since june?
high: 26C (78F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a better chance of some (mainly afternoon) showers or thunderstorms.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: a bit of sun... but increasing clouds and fog, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 23C (73F)

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

wednesday evening>

we seem to be into the pattern of endless variety... scattered showers and thundershowers dominated the morning hours, bringing 0.15" (3mm) of rain to upper mcleod ganj, and just 0.05" (1mm) near the main temple. THEN, the clouds cleared out and we enjoyed a couple of hours of sunshine unlike we've seen for 6 weeks or so during the mid-afternoon. our official high temp at the weathergeek office was 21C (70F).

i'm already hearing people around town declare that the monsoon is OVER. that is definitely not the case, but we are going to enjoy a few days of drier, warmer and sunnier weather. that deep saturation that causes wall-to-wall fog has been chased well to our south and east for the time being... so although there will still be a few scattered showers here and there, the humidity levels are going to be MUCH lower, and the fog will be very scarce. a couple of our computer models are still forecasting ZERO rainfall from now through saturday. BUT, be warned... starting on sunday, the tropical moisture will begin to stream back in, and we will enter what could be our last major phase of this monsoon season...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with just a slight chance of an overnight shower.
low: 16C (61F)

THURSDAY: warmer, with a good amount of sunshine. clouds during the mid-day and PM hours could yield a random thundershower.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies with an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds. rather warm, with a chance of one or two thundershowers during the PM.
high: 26C (78F)

SUNDAY: some AM sun, then mostly cloudy with increasing fog. good chance of a few showers or thundershowers developing.
high:24C (75F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog. scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.
high: 23C (73F)

wednesday morning>

our low temperature this morning of 15.9C/60.6F is the coolest we've seen since 7 july.! we're waking up to another fog-less morning... although there are quite a few clusters of puffy cumulus clouds around, and even some random showers. the view from space shows a rather large area of rain/thunderstorms moving from pakistan into western kashmir... but it appears that it will remain to our north this morning.

it is nice to have good news to share... our monsoon-weary atmosphere will continue to dry out during the next few days. there is still the potential for a couple of hours of rain today (evidenced by the current light showers), thanks to a bit of leftover instability... but rain chances all but disappear on thursday through saturday. there will remain a risk of an afternoon shower or thundershower on those days, but the real headline will be: DRIER, SUNNIER, WARMER. however, the monsoon moisture lurking just to our south and east is not retreating permanently. by sunday, the humid and foggy conditions will start to return, along with increasing chances of rain.

by the way, our last day without MEASURABLE rain was way back on 23 july. the last day with NO rain (meaning, not even a sprinkle or a bit of drizzle) was 14 july. let's see if we can come up with at least one totally dry day before this week is out...

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with warmer temps. still a good chance of a period of two of rain at some point in the day...
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: a shower possible in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy and rather cool.
low: 16C (61F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and warmer. a random afternoon thundershower is possible.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine... but some afternoon clouds could yield an isolated thundershower. warming trend continues...
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: warm, with sunshine between periods of clouds. still that chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 26C (78F)

SUNDAY: a bit of morning sun, otherwise becoming cloudy and foggy with a better chance of showers.
high: 24C (75F)

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

tuesday evening>

our tuesday is ending beautifully, after a day of mostly overcast skies, and a period of rain between 930am and around noon. the high temp in upper mcleod ganj was 21C (69F), with 0.30" (7.6mm) of rain. the rainfall total from near the main temple was 0.25" (6.4mm).

it is quite obvious that we are undergoing a major shift in the weather pattern... the advertised weakening of the monsoon is already evident, and will become more pronounced as we head into the end of the week. we've already had a couple of days without the extensive, thick fog of weeks past, and that's due to dropping humidity levels in all layers of the atmosphere. our computer models remain very consistent with bringing in some much drier, warmer, and more stable air... which WILL tempt us to think that the monsoon is history. don't be fooled!! we will have more high humidity, fog, thick clouds and heavy rainfall before all is said and done around mid-september. but in the meantime, it is gonna be REALLY nice to have a break. enjoy...

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a round or two of showers or thundershowers overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with very little fog. warmer... but still a good chance of a period of showers or thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sunshine, but thickening clouds in the PM with a random thundershower possible.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: quite warm, with partly sunny skies. slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: still a nice amount of sunshine, before some afternoon clouds. look out for a random afternoon thundershower again...
high: 26C (78F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with fog returning. good chance of occasional showers or thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

tuesday morning>

skies are partly cloudy early this morning... with no fog (again). the temp is currently 16.5C/62F. no additional rainfall overnight.

a large area of rain and thunderstorms is evident on the satellite photos this morning... extending from southwestern kashmir into eastern pakistan, with movement towards the east. if this holds together, it should move into our area by mid-morning. rain chances will remain rather high into wednesday, but then our period of much drier weather will begin. a much weaker phase of the monsoon is expected to bring us increasing sunshine, less humidity, and less consistent and persistent rains as we approach the latter part of the week. that will give us all a chance to dry out (temporarily) before another round of tropical monsoon conditions arrives to finish out the season...

TUESDAY: partly cloudy skies early, then mostly cloudy with some fog. occasional rain (with thunder) likely to develop.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a period of rain possible.
low: 17C (62F)

WEDNESDAY: still a good chance of a period or two of rain. otherwise, a mix of clouds, sun and a little fog.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies... warmer. a few scattered showers possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine between periods of clouds. chance of an afternoon shower or thundershower. pleasantly warm.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds. warm, with an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 26C (78F)

Monday, August 23, 2010

monday evening>

it's interesting to watch the subtle changes as the monsoon moves into its waning phase (i.e., its eventual death !) although we had a rainy afternoon, we had some peeks of sun in the morning, and are now enjoying some evening sunshine... humidity is lower, and there has been very little fog all day. our high temp was 21C/70F, with 0.40" (1cm) of rain reported near the main temple, and 0.60" (1.5cm) at the weathergeek office in upper mcleod ganj.

all indications continue to point toward a period of "nicer" weather as the week progresses. rain potential will continue to diminish day by day, with lower humidity, which will lead to less fog and cloudiness, and an increasing amount of sunshine. in fact, the computer models are suggesting absolutely ZERO precipitation for thursday and friday. that may be a bit extreme... but the point is this: we are in for some drier weather!! bonafide monsoon conditions will definitely return, but in the meantime, enjoy a sneak peek of the kind of weather we will be enjoying consistently by the middle of september...

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a good chance of a few more showers overnight.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: some sunshine... but also plenty of clouds and some fog. occasional rain and a thunderstorm or two likely.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and a little fog. good chance of a few showers, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies. warmer, with scattered PM showers possible.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine... but thickening clouds in the afternoon, with a chance of a shower or two.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: some AM sunshine, but becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a chance of a thundershower. warmest day since june??
high: 26C (78F)

monday morning>

mostly cloudy and 17C/62F just after 6am. finally... a quiet night. i have less than .05" (1.5mm) in my rain gauge this morning... just left over sprinkles from the huge rains yesterday afternoon and evening. dharamkot/tushita road is now virtually impassable for cars and trucks, and word has it that people with vehicles in naddi are stuck there, thanks to recently washed out roads.

we'll have occasional glimpses of sunshine again today... but clouds and fog will thicken up again as the day wears on, leading to the likelihood of more rain and thunder. however, each day this week, rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish, as will the humidity levels. we are looking at the first serious retreat of monsoon conditions in more than a month, especially by thursday and friday. as mentioned before, this doesn't mean that the monsoon is OVER, but late august is typically the time when the persistent saturated conditions ease up a bit. there will still be plenty of rain between now and mid-september, but also more breaks in between...

MONDAY: on and off glimpses of sunshine this morning. but... more clouds and fog will lead to rain and thunderstorms again, mainly this PM.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY NIGHT: good chance of showers and thundershowers before midnight, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog, with occasional showers and possibly a thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and sun again. warmer, with still a good chance of a few thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sun... but increasing clouds and some fog in the PM, along with a couple of random showers. pleasantly warm.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies and warmer. an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 25C (77F)

Sunday, August 22, 2010

sunday evening>

today wins the award for the most contradictory day of the monsoon season. on the one hand, we had more sunshine today than we've seen in about a month. and that boosted the high temp to almost 23C/73F in upper mcleod ganj. on the other hand, thunderstorms during the mid- late afternoon have dumped one of the heavier rainfall amounts in the shortest amount of time that i've seen this season. i received 3.3" (8.4cm) in just over 2 hours, between 245 and 500pm. the creeks and streams near the weathergeek office are working overtime this evening... and tushita/dharamkot road continues to erode. be aware of potential road washouts around the area!!

**UPDATE @ 9:05pm** rainfall this afternoon and early evening:
-near main temple... 4.15" (10.5cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 3.40" (8.6cm)

light rain is still falling and thunder is rumbling at this hour, while the satellite pics show clusters of thunderstorms all along the himalayan front ranges... from western kashmir to nepal. these storms will most likely die out overnight, as most of the action today was fueled by the heating of the moisture-laden air by the mid-day sunshine. the good news is this... the sunshine and lower humidity during the first part of the day is a sign of things to come. our computer model guidance is gradually drying out the atmosphere during this coming week, and although we'll still have periods of (possibly heavy) rain and thundershowers, there will be more and more periods of sunshine, and noticeably less humidity and fog by the end of the week. the monsoon season still has another 20 or so days to go... but these are the first signs of a bit of light at the end of the tunnel...

SUNDAY NIGHT: showers and thundershowers around, mainly this evening. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: a few periods of sunshine between the clouds and fog... periods of rain and thunderstorms are still likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies and warmer. scattered showers, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog. still a good chance of a few showers.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sun in the midst of the clouds and fog. a random thundershower is possible in the afternoon/evening. warmest day of august??
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY: an isolated thundershower possible... otherwise quite warm, with a mix of clouds and sun.
high: 25C (77F)

major sunday afternoon rains...

rain began @ 245pm, and soon became heavy, with lots of thunder and cloud-to-ground lightning in the mcleod ganj area. i've had 3.3" (8.4cm) here just below the mountaineering center in just 2 hours. be aware of HIGH FLOOD POTENTIAL, including road wash-outs, this evening, as all the run-off from the mountains overwhelms the creeks and streams...

sunday morning>

it probably won't last for long... but the air is more crisp and clear this morning than it's been in weeks. there are patches of blue sky, not a trace of fog, and a temp of 16.5C/62F. an additional 0.45" (1.1cm) of rain fell overnight here at the top of mcleod ganj, bringing the 24 hour total up to 0.83" (2.1cm). my fellow wxgeeks near the dalai lama's temple reported 0.70" (1.8cm), for a 24 hour total of 1.25" (3.2cm).

satellite pics this morning are showing scattered areas of rain, some thundershowers as well, all the way from western kashmir, through punjab and parts of himachal pradesh, southeastward into uttar anchal and uttar pradesh. this occasional rainy/thundery pattern will continue for another 24-36 hours or so... but then it does appear that we will enter a weakening phase of the monsoon as we head through the coming week. the trend, starting on tuesday, will be toward less hours of rain, lesser amounts of rain, a decrease in humidity, a bit of an increase in sunshine potential, and some warmer temperatures. as i mentioned yesterday, don't expect the rain to end altogether, but do expect the thick gloom of clouds and fog and persistent rains to ease up... at least for awhile!

SUNDAY: some early AM peeks of sunshine... but then becoming mostly cloudy and foggy again, with more rain developing.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies. areas of fog, with a few periods of rain still likely.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: brief morning sunshine? otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and a bit of sun. a few scattered showers around.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: warmer, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. a few (mainly afternoon) showers.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: a few periods of sunshine between clouds and fog. just a few scattered showers possible.
high: 23C (74F)

Saturday, August 21, 2010

saturday evening>

light to moderate rain is falling in mcleod ganj this evening. we've had off and on showers since about 9am, but there has been nothing heavy today.... totals have been generally less than 1/3" (8mm) thus far. totals for the day will be posted later tonight. despite a couple of brief peeks of sunshine, the maximum temp in upper mcleod ganj was just 20C/68F.

**UPDATE @927pm** rainfall today (so far...)
-near main temple... 0.55" (1.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.45" (1.1cm)

no organized storm systems are evident by looking at the satellite pics this evening... only scattered rainshower activity clinging to the mountains. we are still in a rather dynamic pattern, however, so periods of rain are likely to continue overnight, through tomorrow and monday. there are still strong indications that the monsoon will enter a relatively weak phase, starting late monday and tuesday, and continuing through much of next week. although scattered showers will still occur... i'm expecting an intrusion of drier air which could mean lower humidity, a bit more sunshine, lower average daily rainfall totals, and warmer temps. good news, eh??

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain and thunder.
low: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: a bit of brief sunshine... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: brief sunshine between thick clouds and fog... periods of rain still likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: scattered showers... but partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog. a little warmer.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun with just a few showers around. pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: relatively warm...partly sunny, with a few periods of clouds and fog. just a few brief showers.
high: 23C (74F)

saturday morning>

mostly cloudy skies, very little fog, and 17C/63F early this morning. there was some light rain overnight, but i only have 0.12" (3mm) in my rain gauge... a far cry from what was happening this time yesterday morning. for the month of august, our observers near the main temple have recorded 32.5" (82.6cm). here in upper mcleod ganj, just below the mountaineering center, my august total thus far is 29.1" (73.9cm). these totals are already slightly above what we recorded during the entire month of july!

we may actually see some peeks of sun before the clouds and fog thicken up by mid-morning... and then the rain chances will be on the rise once again. we are still in a very wet pattern, at least for the next 2-3 days, with a few hours of rain likely here and there, along with a good potential for more heavy downpours. after that, there are some encouraging signs that monsoon moisture may retreat a bit. not to say that the monsoon is nearing its end... that won't happen for about 3 more weeks... but it does appear that we may be in for a break in the incessant rains by tuesday and wednesday. we've now had measurable rain EVERY DAY since 23 july. temperatures should gradually moderate into the middle of next week...

SATURDAY: a bit of sun early this morning... then mostly cloudy and foggy with more rain developing.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: occasional rain likely... otherwise lots of clouds and fog.
low: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: a glimpse or two of sunshine, especially early, otherwise mostly cloudy with periods of fog. a round or two of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: peeks of sunshine, otherwise plenty of clouds and fog. rain chances diminishing a bit.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny, warmer. still a good chance of a few showers, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a few scattered showers, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

Friday, August 20, 2010

friday evening>

the last 24 hours have been the wettest of the monsoon season thus far. here are the totals from yesterday afternoon through this afternoon:
-near main temple... 6.15" (15.6cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 4.47" (11.35cm)
-naddi village... 3.94" (10cm)

the rain stopped around 1pm... and it has been mostly dry for the last several hours. we had a high temp of 20C/68F here in upper mcleod ganj.

i've received a few reports of washed out roads around the area... but that is to be expected during this point in the monsoon season. we're nearing 60" (152cm) of rainfall since the first of july, and that amount of water starts to take its toll. unfortunately, rain chances remain high for the next few days. although we're in the midst of a break in the action at the moment, more rain could develop overnight, and especially on saturday. it's likely that we'll pick up another few inches between now and monday... but then there are indications that rainfall coverage and intensity will ease up during the first part of next week...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a few showers around overnight. foggy at times.
low: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: perhaps a few peeks of AM sunshine... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with more rain developing.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a few periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: occasional rain... with fog and mostly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few periods of fog. scattered showers likely.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog, and a bit of sun. good chance of a few showers.
high: 22C (72F)

friday flooding potential...

just a word of caution... with very heavy rains overnight, added onto the heavy rainfall we've already had during the past several days, the potential for FLOODING, ROAD WASHOUTS and LANDSLIDES will be rather high. all the rivers, streams and creeks are running very high this morning, and will continue to do so for much of the day. if you plan to travel, please be extra careful as many roads could be flooded or very unstable.

recent rainfall totals and your forecast discussion are below>>

friday morning>

we are in the midst of one of our biggest rain events of the monsoon season this morning. i've received about 3" (7.6cm) since around 8pm... and it is still raining moderately. believe it or not, this brings my total rainfall just since MONDAY up to 9.7" (25cm)!! near the main temple, the overnight total as been 3.65" (9.3cm). the temperature this morning with all the clouds, fog and rain is 18C/64F, as usual...

**RAINFALL UPDATE** the following are 24 hour rainfall totals as of roughly 7am.... but it's still raining so these will go up..
-near main temple... 4.25" (10.8cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 3.35" (8.5cm)
-naddi village... 2.56" (6.5cm)

our satellite pics this morning are showing a single cluster of rain parked right on top of northwestern himachal pradesh. little movement is indicated, so the rain will likely continue until it fizzles/dissipates on its own. you may have noticed this week that the heaviest rains have been occurring late in the evening and overnight, then quickly diminishing during the morning. we'll see if this rule holds for yet another day. looking ahead... there are actually a few positive indications that our recent bout of very wet weather may ease up in a few days. according to computer model guidance, rainfall coverage and intensity across northern india will decrease significantly, especially by tuesday. only time will tell, but that may be something to look forward to...

FRIDAY: moderate to heavy rains (with some thunder) will gradually end this morning. then mostly cloudy, with a chance of more showers in the afternoon.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy, with more rain likely.
low: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: still mostly cloudy and foggy with a few periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a little AM sun? otherwise mostly cloudy with some fog. a few showers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: a bit of sun in the midst of clouds and fog. scattered showers, mainly in the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog. a few showers around.
high: 22C (71F)

Thursday, August 19, 2010

thursday evening>

the day is ending just as it began... very thick clouds, lots of fog, with some light rain and drizzle. rainfall has been very light for most of the day, after the overnight moderate rains ended around sunrise. i've only recorded an additional tenth of an inch (3mm) of rain during the day. but that may change very shortly, if the recent pattern of the last several evenings repeats itself. today's high temp at the weathergeek office was 20C/68F.

currently the satellite pics are showing most of the heaviest rainfall occurring over punjab... just to our south and west. but more areas of rain (and maybe some thunder) will continue to develop this evening across our area. few changes are in order as we move through the weekend into early next week. humidity will remain just about as high as it can get... cloudy and foggy skies will yield occasional periods of rain... and any respectable peeks of sunshine will be few and far between. computer models are hinting that the heaviest rainfall will occur on saturday and monday, but frankly, heavy showers could occur at any time during the next several days.

THURSDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with occasional rain.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: brief peeks of sun here and there, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few showers around.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy skies with fog. off and on rain likely.
high: 21C (69)

SUNDAY: a few periods of rain... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: lots of clouds and fog with occasional rain.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: more clouds, more fog, more occasional rain.
high: 21C (69F)

thursday morning>

cloudy, foggy, some very light rain, and 18C/64F early this morning. we're finishing up another night of nearly non-stop rain. i had about a half an inch (1.3cm) last night at 8pm, and had another 0.85" (2.2cm) as of 6am. my observers near the main temple reported 0.6" (1.5cm) as of 11pm last night.

**UPDATE @1000am** rainfall totals for 24 hours ending this morning:
-near main temple... 1.35" (3.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 1.40" (3.55cm)
-naddi village... 1.02" (2.6cm)

a BIG THANK YOU to my trusty rainfall observers.

we are definitely stuck on auto-pilot... there are very few changes evident in the weather pattern... right through the weekend and into early next week. tons of available tropical moisture, along with a "train" of upper-level disturbances drifting across the mountains will keep occasional periods of rain in the forecast day after day. if we're lucky, we'll see a glimmer of sunshine in between the thick clouds and fog, but any bright spots will be very short-lived. rainfall during the past week or so has been AVERAGING about 1.6" (over 4cm) PER DAY... and there is no indication that that rate will diminish in the near future. although the rain recently has been more light-moderate and steady, we can't rule out the occasional blast of heavier rain...

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain throughout the day.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with more rain likely.
low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY: perhaps a bit of early morning sun? then... mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: a glimpse or two of early AM sun... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers around.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog, along with periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: more of the same! clouds, fog and occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

wednesday evening>

**UPDATE... RAINFALL TALLY @ 810PM**
-upper mcleod ganj:
-0.50" (1.3cm) since noon
-1.35" (3.4cm) past 24 hours
-12.3" (31.2cm) past week
-23.53" (59.8cm) for the month of august

no reports from naddi or near temple yet this evening....

light rain and drizzle have been falling all day, except for the period between about 7am and noon. so far today, it HAS been very light, with the rainfall tally in upper mcleod ganj only around 0.25" (6mm) since noon. apart from a bright blast of sunshine this morning around 8am, the fog and clouds have dominated the day. the high temp reached 21C/69F.

the latest computer models are showing more of the same-same right through the next five days. it is very hard to find any distinguishing features from one day to the next. lots of tropical moisture remains firmly entrenched, while occasional disturbance in the upper-air flow drift through. this means that periods of rain will continue right into early next week, with only a few hours of respite here and there. heavy downpours remain likely from time to time, so a quick inch or two of rain could get dumped at any time. the good news is this... in just three weeks, monsoon 2010 could be winding down!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: lots of clouds and fog, with occasional rain likely.
low: 18C (64F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rain throughout the day.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: a few peeks of sun? otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with scattered showers.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a little sun possible for a few minutes... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain.
high: 20C (68F)

wednesday morning>

it has now been raining pretty much non-stop since around 5 o'clock last evening... although the intensity has been light to moderate for the most part. i recorded 0.83" (2.1cm) overnight, which brings the total for the past 24 hours up to 1.30" (3.3cm). will receive totals from near the main temple and naddi later in the morning. currently, it is raining, and 18C/64F.

**UPDATE @ NOON** rainfall since yesterday evening:
-near main temple... 1.70" (4.3cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 1.30" (3.3cm)
-naddi village... 1.57" (4cm)

satellite pics are showing a few clusters of rain and thundershowers covering much of punjab and western parts of himachal pradesh, dissipating, with little movement. the rain will taper off, but redevelopment is likely. our computer model guidance is showing very little mercy as far as rain potential during the next several days. we'll get a few breaks here and there, but some steady, persistent rains, along with occasional heavy downpours are expected right into the weekend. temperatures will remain very stable... hovering between 17 and 21C (63-70F).

WEDNESDAY: peeks of sun early this morning... then mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain once again.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of occasional rain.
low: 17C (63F)

THURSDAY: foggy and mostly cloudy. periods of rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: still lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain.
high: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: more of the same... clouds, fog, and rain.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with occasional fog. good chance of more rain.
high: 21C (69F)

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

tuesday evening>

**UPDATE** 917pm... light to moderate rain has been falling this evening. the total rainfall for the day recorded just below the mountaineering center in mcleod ganj is 0.47" (1.2cm). this brings the august total up to 22.22" (56.4cm).

the last two evenings, we have been at exactly this point (around 530pm), when very heavy showers have developed. so far, the rain today has been scattered and light, with less than a tenth of an inch (2mm) measured at the top of mcleod ganj. we've had lots of clouds and fog all day, with a high temp of only 20C/68F.

we are standing on the precipice of what could be a very rainy stretch of weather to finish out the week. rain could increase in both coverage and intensity across much of himachal pradesh any time... and continue off and on for a few days. the tropical moisture is obviously in place, and ready to be wrung out of the atmosphere, so what we are waiting for is the upper-level support which will come in waves... soon. some of our computer model guidance is giving us more than 6" (16cm) between now and saturday. stay tuned for the latest updates...

TUESDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with an increasing chance of rain.
low: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. periods of rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: cloudy, foggy and cool. occasional rain.
high: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY: still lots of clouds and fog around, with periods of rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: more of the same... clouds, fog and periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a few breaks in the clouds... but occasional showers are still likely.
high: 21C (69F)

tuesday morning>

it seems our early morning temperature has been stuck on 18C/64F the last few days. skies are currently mostly cloudy, but there are a few breaks in the clouds here and there, so we could see a few peeks of sunshine before we get totally socked in again. no additional rainfall recorded overnight.. which is a very good thing at this point...

not much happening across northern india at the moment... all of the heavy rain showers of yesterday evening fizzled out... but rain will likely redevelop towards the mid-day hours. our chances of consistent, persistent moderate to heavy rains will continue to improve day by day, so we'll continue to add to our already huge august total of nearly 22" (56cm) as the week progresses. i still think late wednesday into friday will be the wettest period, but as we saw last evening, a massive deluge can happen at any time!

TUESDAY: peeks of sun early? otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with more showers developing.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: off and on rainshowers... some heavy. otherwise mostly cloudy, foggy.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog. occasional rain is likely.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies. foggy, with periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: cloudy, foggy and cool with periods of rain... heavy at times.
high: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with fog and occasional rainshowers.
high: 21C (69F)

Monday, August 16, 2010

monday evening FLOODING...

extremely heavy rainfall in mcleod ganj began around 540pm, and is now slowly ending at 640pm. the main square in mcleod ganj has been flooded... specifically the lower section of asian plaza and the western union offices. i don't have specific rainfall information yet, but i'm sure it has been in excess of 2" (5cm) in this past hour.... possibly much more than that. run-off from TIPA and TUSHITA ROADS into the main square will gradually subside during the next half hour or so. this is the most significant amount of water i've witnessed yet this year...!

rainfall totals will be updated as available...

**RAINFALL UPDATE @ 930pm** totals for the day:
-upper mcleod ganj... 3.70" (9.4cm)
-naddi village... 2.48" (6.3cm)
-near main temple... 2.65" (6.7cm)

monday evening>

it's been a gloomy monday... lots of clouds and fog all day, with quite a bit of rainshower action. as of 520pm, here are the totals:
-near main temple... 0.60" (1.5cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.50" (1.3cm)
-naddi village... 0.63" (1.6cm)
at the time of this writing, rain is falling again, and quite heavily... so these totals will be updated later in the evening. the high temp this afternoon was 20.5C/69F.

**UPDATE @ 600pm... western union office in main square, mcleod ganj is flooded. overflow coming down from TIPA road is backed up...

it does look like we are in for a very rainy week. conditions are aligning to deliver perhaps some of the heaviest rainfall of the monsoon season during the next 4-5 days. the occasional showers we've had recently will turn into more consistent, persistent rains as we move toward the middle of the week, as deep tropical moisture teams up with a series of disturbances drifting from east to west in the upper atmosphere. it still looks like the best potential for heavy rains will occur on wednesday and thursday. typical of this time of year, temperatures will show little variation between day and night, and from day to day...

MONDAY NIGHT: heavy showers ending... but more occasional showers possible overnight. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
low: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: brief peeks of sunshine in the early AM, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain... heavy rainfall likely.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: rain, occasionally heavy. otherwise cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY: a peek or two of sun?? otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional showers.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: a little sunshine between clouds and fog. off and on showers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

monday morning>

our "less wet" sunday certainly turned "more wet" around sunset... a period of very heavy rainfall delivered the following totals during the evening hours:
-near main temple... 1.60" (4.1cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.75" (1.9cm)
-naddi village... 1.93" (4.9cm)

this morning, we're waking up to cloudy skies with patches of fog and a few sprinkles around. the temp here at the weathergeek office is 18C/64F. there was a bit of light rain overnight, and i have a fresh 0.08" (2mm) in my rain gauge.

the satellite pics are showing lots of cloud cover across himachal pradesh... and some colder cloud tops indicate that there are some areas of light rain as well. this morning's computer model guidance is generally consistent with the same trends as before... indicating a gradual turn to more consistently rainy weather as we progress through the new week. we'll easily pick up 5-6" (12-15cm) of rain during the next 4-5 days...

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies with patches of fog at times. occasional showers are likely.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers likely.
low: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: perhaps a peek or two of sun in the early AM, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of clouds and fog around. occasional rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: clouds, fog, and occasional rain.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: periods of rain still likely. mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 21C (69F)

Sunday, August 15, 2010

sunday evening>

well our sunday has turned out to be the "least wet" day in a while. i recorded just 0.05" (1mm), most of that occurring overnight, with 0.15" (4mm) reported near the main temple, but a slightly more substantial 0.24" (6mm) in naddi village. however, there are some heavy showers in town right now... so our totals for the day will likely be considerably higher. check back here for updates!! skies alternated between clouds, fog and brief peeks of sunshine today, with a high temp of 21C/70F.

**RAINFALL UPDATE @ 845pm** major rainfall this evening between 6 and 730pm boosted our totals for the day:
-near main temple... 1.75" (4.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.80" (2cm)

despite the lack of significant rainfall during the daytime, the humidity has been pegged out between 90 and 100%, so there is plenty of moisture in the air. what was lacking today was upper-level support for rain development... if temps in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are too warm, then rain-producing cumulus clouds have a hard time buiding up. that limiting factor is going to be removed during the next 24 hours or so... and especially as we move into the middle of the week. heavy rain potential will be on the increase once again, with wednesday and thursday currently looking like the wettest days of the week.

**HAPPY INDIAN INDEPENDENCE DAY**

SUNDAY NIGHT: a few showers around (mainly before midnight), otherwise mostly cloudy with areas of fog.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few periods of showers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a better chance of heavy rainshowers.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: periods of rain likely. otherwise mostly cloudy, foggy and coolish.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: still a very good chance of significant rains... otherwise lots of clouds and fog around.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds, fog, and a little sun. scattered showers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

sunday morning>

overcast skies and 18C/64F early this morning... and i have .05" (1mm) of water in my rain gauge, indicating that there must have been a brief shower at some point overnight. satellite pics are showing lots of cloudiness over himachal pradesh this morning, but there is no significant rainfall going on....yet.

it won't be long until the showers and thundershowers fire up... with the potential for another round of locally heavy rainfall. the last couple of days we've only had a few hours of rain, but it has been on the heavy side. those occasional tropical downpours will be the main theme during the next two or three days... in between periods of clouds and fog, and even random peeks of sunshine. it still looks like we could get more consistent, persistent rains moving in later in the week... as we are well on our way to a 35-40" (90-100cm) rainfall total for the month of august.

SUNDAY: a few brief peeks of sunshine possible, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: some showers around, mainly in the evening... then partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: glimpses of sun between the clouds and fog. a period of two of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with off and on rainshowers.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: cloudy, foggy and cool with periods of rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: a rainy day... with lots of clouds and fog.
high: 20C (68F)

Saturday, August 14, 2010

saturday evening>

it's mostly cloudy and foggy this evening, after a couple of periods of moderate to heavy showers today. the high temp in upper mcleod ganj was near 20C/68F. rainfall totals for the day show quite a variety, and are as follows:

-near main temple... 0.80" (2cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.52" (1.3cm)
-naddi village... 0.26" (0.65cm)

other than a random shower or two, i'm not expecting much action overnight. most of the rain lately has been of the shower variety... fueled by the heating of the daytime sun... which will die out as the sun sets. tomorrow (sunday) and monday will be similar to today, with random showers during the mid-day and afternoon hours... but we could see more in the way of widespread, persistent rains by the middle of the week. monsoon rainfall for 2010 is running near to slightly above normal across most of northern india, according to the india meteorological department.

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog. a few random, brief showers are possible.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: a few glimpses of sunshine in the midst of clouds and fog. a few showers are likely.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog. scattered showers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy, foggy and cool, with periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of clouds and fog. cool, with occasional rain for much of the day.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: more rain likely. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (68F)

saturday morning>

skies are partly cloudy early this morning, with a temp of 18C/65F. we had no additional rainfall overnight... but my total for the month of august here at the top of mcleod ganj is now 16.73" (42.5cm).

i am having trouble coming up with new, creative ways to describe this monsoon weather. there are no changes to report... the pattern will remain virtually unchanged right through the middle of next week. that means occasional showers will never be too far away, and some of them could be quite heavy. glimpses of sunshine will happen from time to time, but won't last for long. as i mentioned a couple of days ago, sunday could be the "least wet" day of the next several, but that is a very subjective and relative term this time of the year...!

SATURDAY: a peek or two of sun... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of some showers.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: glimpses of sun between thick clouds and fog. one or two periods of showers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional showers.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: lots of clouds and fog with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: cloudy, foggy, rainy and cool.
high: 20C (68F)

Friday, August 13, 2010

friday evening>

we have an eerie mix of sun, clouds and fog this evening... following a period of heavy rain during the early afternoon which dumped exactly 1" (2.5cm) in my rain gauge at the top of mcleod ganj. have not yet received reports from near the main temple and naddi. the high temp today was warmer than expected... reaching 23C/73.5F, thanks to a good bit of sunshine during the morning hours.

**RAINFALL UPDATE @ 7:55pm** totals for the day:
-near main temple... 1.25" (3.18cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 1" (2.5cm)
-naddi village... 2" (5.1cm)

quite a variation across the area today. that's why we need more observers.!

there are still quite a few scattered showers and thundershowers across himachal pradesh, punjab and jammu & kashmir this evening... but so far, no well-organized areas of persistent rains have developed. the computer models are showing very little day-to-day changes in the weather pattern for the next several days. we have abundant tropical moisture in place, little wiggles and twists in the upper-air pattern which will continue to drift through, and maybe enough peeks of sunshine to "stir the pot", so to speak. this combination spells a continuing excellent chance of daily rainfall, with occasional heavy downpours which can deliver more than an inch in a short period of time. despite glimmers of sun, do not let go of the umbrella...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with patches of fog. still a chance of a period or two of rain overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: a little early AM sun... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers likely.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and fog, with occasional rainshowers.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: a tropical mix of clouds, fog, and a little steamy sunshine. good chance of scattered showers.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with fog, and periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

friday morning>

beautiful, fogless morning... some patchy mid-level clouds and a coolish 17C/62F. we didn't get any additional rainfall overnight, but that's OK, considering yesterday's deluge.

the satellite pics are showing relative peace and quiet across our part of the world at the moment... just a couple of clusters of thundershowers along the kashmir/pakistan border. the quiet won't last for long, though... there will be a dramatic and rapid development of rain and thundershower action across northern india by mid-day into the afternoon hours, with more locally heavy rainfall likely in some areas. this same pattern will repeat on a daily basis right into the early part of next week, with only partial days of dry weather expected. our august rainfall total will likely surpass 20" (51cm) by monday or tuesday.

for those of you who have had about as much monsoon as you can handle>> the average date for the departure of monsoon conditions from the dharamsala area is in the range of 12-15 september. only a month to go!

FRIDAY: a little early morning sunshine, then mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain and thundershowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: periods of rain likely, especially before midnight. otherwise mostly cloudy with some fog.
low: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a few periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog. good chance of occasional showers.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with a few periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: clouds and fog, rainy and cool...
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, August 12, 2010

thursday evening>

the rain which fell between 2am and 2pm today was the biggest single rainfall event of the monsoon season, and for the year. it reminded me of some of the gully-washers back in 2002, when i first spent the entire monsoon season here.

today, we have a new official rainfall observer in naddi!! the totals for the day are as follows:
-near main temple... 4.1" (10.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 4.5" (11.4cm)
-naddi village... 4.2" (10.6cm)

we're enjoying some sunshine late this afternoon and early evening, peeking through the fog. that sunshine helped boost the high temp almost to 20C/68F at the weathergeek office. the satellite pics are showing rain and some thundershowers happening to our north, south, east and west... but most of himachal pradesh is dry at the moment. however, there will be little change in the overall weather pattern during the next few days, so our tropical airmass could produce more heavy rains at any time. it does appear that sunday could be the "least wet" day of the next several, but that doesn't mean much this time of the year...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog. chance of more rain developing overnight.
low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. occasional rain showers likely.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: a bit of sun here and there, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with off and on rain likely once again.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: apart from a few peeks of sunshine, skies will be mostly cloudy. some fog, with also a good chance of scattered showers.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of some showers.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with an increasing chance of heavier rains...
high: 21C (69F)

thursday rainfall>

RAINFALL during the 12 hours from 2:00am until 2:00pm in mcleod ganj:
-near main temple: 4.1" (10.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj: 4.5" (11.4cm)

this is the heaviest single rain event of the monsoon season, and for all of 2010.

thursday morning>

rain has been falling steadily since about 215am... and i have 0.45" (1.1cm) here at the weathergeek office at the top of mcleod ganj. will look forward to hear the tally from near the main temple later in the morning. the temperature is currently 18C/64F.

**RAINFALL UPDATE 8:18am** exactly 2" (5.1cm) in upper mcleod ganj. 1.55" (3.9cm) of that has fallen in the past 2 hours.

the satellite photos this morning are showing an area of rain parked right on top of us, covering most of the northwestern section of himachal pradesh. as has been the case recently, there is little movement indicated, thanks to nearly calm winds in the upper atmosphere. yesterday was a huge day for rainfall over much of northwest india, including chandigarh, most of punjab, haryana and the delhi NCR. there are reports of flooding in many places to our south. periods of rain will persist, and thunderstorms with heavy rain are likely to develop again today over parts of northern india. not everyone will get in on the action, but where it hits, it will be intense! statistics show that THIS WEEK is the peak of the heaviest monsoon rains across northwest india, on average...

THURSDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain, with some thunder possible as well.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: occasional rain and thundershowers. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY: more off and on rain is likely, along with plenty of clouds and fog. remaining cool.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog. a few periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: a few peeks of sunshine possible, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy, with a good chance of more rain.
high: 21C (70F)

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

wednesday evening>

**UPDATE FYI** major flooding in delhi this evening. traffic tied up, 2-3 feet of water in some streets.

we've had MUCH less rain today than expected... an area of showers and thundershowers developed near dharamsala early this morning, then grew and grew and grew and grew... as it drifted toward the southwest. currently, there is a huge area of rain and thunderstorms covering eastern punjab, southern himachal pradesh, and extending into western uttar anchal. it continues to drift to the south, away from us. all we've had here is a few periods of sprinkles and light rain... barely measurable. due to the thick clouds and fog for most of the day, the high temp only reached 19.5C/67F... one of the coolest days of the monsoon season.

but, rain lovers, never fear... we are definitely in a WET pattern for the next several days, so the next round of heavy rainfall won't be too far away. the atmosphere remains as saturated as it can get, and there will be a series of upper level disturbances in the upper atmosphere drifting through, especially between now and saturday. any glimpses of sunshine will be very fleeting, so temps will remain quite cool...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of off and on rainshowers. a thunderstorm is also possible.
low: 17C (63F)

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain likely. still cool...
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: occasional rain, otherwise mostly cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: a peek or two of sunshine? otherwise plenty of clouds and fog with occasional showers.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with fog at times. good chance of scattered showers.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: a bit of sun possible, but mostly cloudy with areas of fog. off and on rainshowers likely.
high: 21C (70F)

wednesday morning>

skies are partly cloudy early this morning with a temperature of 18C/64F. i received about 0.20" (5mm) of rain during the late evening, but no additional measurable rainfall overnight.

we may actually get to see a bit of sun this morning, but clouds and fog will quickly thicken up again, with scattered showers and thundershowers expected to quickly develop. once again, the potential for locally heavy rain in a short time exists... and that potential will continue to increase toward the weekend. i already have an august total of more than 11" (27.9cm), and that number will be greatly increased between now and sunday. soggy...soggy...soggy... no real hope for any relief in sight...

WEDNESDAY: a little early morning sun... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy. periods of showers and thundershowers developing.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
low: 18C (64F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. periods of rain likely... with a chance of thundershowers as well.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with periods of rain. cool...
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: more rain... more clouds... more fog.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: perhaps a break in the action... partly to mostly cloudy skies and foggy, but only a few scattered showers.
high: 21C (70F)

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

tuesday evening>

well things have certainly turned around during the past 24 hours or so. we've had off and on rainshowers (and some thunder) for much of the day... and i have 0.50" (1.3cm) as of 5pm. the measurement near the main temple for today is 1.35" (3.4cm) so far.... and that can be added to more than 2.50" (6.4cm) since yesterday evening. the high this afternoon in upper mcleod ganj was 20.5C (69F).

the forecast can pretty much be summed up in 2 words: INCREASINGLY RAINY. our monsoon "intermission" which lasted from friday into monday morning has passed, and all indications are pointing to an increase in the frequency and quantity of rainfall as we move into the latter half of the week. it is possible that we could see some of the heaviest rains of this monsoon season on friday into saturday. be aware of the increasing potential of landslides and road washouts, which are often a by-product of prolonged periods of heavy rainfall...

TUESDAY NIGHT: more rain likely overnight, along with a chance of a thunderstorm.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies, foggy... with periods of showers and thundershowers likely again.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: lots of clouds and fog, along with periods of rain.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: cloudy, foggy, rainy and cool.
high: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: rain continues... otherwise mostly cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies. foggy at times, with a good chance of more showers.
high: 21C (69F)

tuesday morning>

we are totally socked in with fog early this morning... with a temp of 18C/64F at the weathergeek office. the past 12 hours have been rather rainy, breaking our streak of 3.5 days with nothing more than a few tenths of an inch (around 1cm). thundershowers between 820pm and midnight brought exactly 2" (5.1cm) of rain near the main temple. my observation here in upper mcled ganj was faulty, due to a chair that i found blocking my rain gauge, well into the storm... so i think i missed more than half of it! not sure if it was monkey or human error... :-)

a newly developing batch of rain/storms are showing up on the satellite pics this morning over southern himachal pradesh and uttar anchal, and appear to be heading in our direction. our various computer model guidance continues to point to steadily increasing chances of a few rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall this week. after our little respite the past few days, we could be getting back into the mode where we could average an inch per day. barring any sunshine, temps will be on the cool side...

TUESDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with more rain (and some thunder) likely. cool.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: good chance of some showers and thundershowers. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog. off and on rainshowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: periods of rain likely. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: clouds, fog and periods of rain. cool.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: more of the same... lots of clouds and fog with rain likely.
high: 20C (68F)

Monday, August 9, 2010

monday evening>

it has been another day of gloom, but with very little rainfall accumulation to show for it. my rain gauge is showing less than a tenth of an inch (3mm) for the day, but i haven't yet heard from my observers near the main temple, AND, it is currently raining, so we'll likely end up with a bigger total for the day. the high temp today was 21.5C/71F.

**UPDATE @ 740pm** rainfall for today:
-near main temple... 0.55" (1.4cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.20" (0.5cm)
-AUGUST total for upper mcleod ganj... 9.15" (23.2cm)

no satellite pics have been available since about 8am this morning... so there is no way to see what is happening. however, our computer models are still showing a rather dramatic increase in significant rainfall potential day by day, right into the weekend. that makes sense, simply because we are now on day FOUR without more than a few relatively brief showers, and the monsoon moisture probably won't wait much longer to be wrung out of our saturated atmosphere. the heavy showers developing at the time of this writing may be a sign of things to come...

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thundershowers likely.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: chance of a little sun in the early AM, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with an increasing chance of rain.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog. occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain. cool.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: plenty of fog and clouds around, with more occasional rain.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: very good chances of rain, again. otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 21C (69F)

monday morning>

mostly cloudy skies, 17C/63F early this morning. well... we made it through the entire weekend with only about 0.20" (5mm) of rain. that is nothing short of miraculous for the middle of the monsoon season. and this morning there is still no evidence of significant widespread rainfall threatening our neighborhood.

the satellite pics DO show a cluster of rain and thundershowers between chandigarh, shimla and dehra dun, but it doesn't appear to be moving in our direction. as has been the case the past couple of days, we'll get a few peeks of sunshine this morning... which will be enough to destabilize the atmosphere and produce some periods of showers and light rain as the day goes on. the risk of heavy downpours exists, and will continue each day this week. as i mentioned before, the heavy showers will be rather "hit and miss", so some areas could pick up a good dumping, while other areas get very little... this is the true nature of tropical showers! temps will stay where they've been for days now... quite pleasant.

MONDAY: a little sun early this morning, otherwise mostly cloudy with areas of fog. good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a few periods of showers.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with off and on rainshowers likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies. periods of fog, along with a few periods of rain.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: off and on rain likely... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (69F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

Sunday, August 8, 2010

sunday evening>

we're enjoying some rays of the setting sun through foggy, misty skies this evening. it was another day of drizzle and light rain showers, and even a little thunder, which yielded only about a tenth of an inch of rain across mcleod ganj. fellow weathergeeks tell me that there was heavier rain this afternoon in kangra. the high temp at the top of mcleod ganj barely made it up to 21C/70F...

well, we are obviously into a weak phase of the monsoon, with no significant rainfall here since early friday morning. there are still no strong, obvious features in the overall weather pattern across northern india... just tons of moisture waiting around for a trigger! the "triggers" will come in the form of weak disturbances and cold pockets aloft, in combination with warming at the surface due to a few periods of sunshine. our computer models ARE increasing our rain chances (and amounts) during the next several days, but like today (kangra vs. mcleod ganj), rainfall will be rather "hit and miss" throughout this coming week. just be prepared for heavy tropical downpours to materialize at any time...

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog. good chance of occasional showers overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: a few peeks of sunshine here and there... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of clouds and fog with periods of rain. rather cool.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: periods of rain are still likely... otherwise mostly cloudy with thick fog at times.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: more of the same! mostly cloudy... foggy... off and on rainshowers.
high: 21C (69F)

sunday morning>

there are only a few scattered clouds around early this morning... so it looks like we'll get a good amount of sunshine for a few hours, before the fog and clouds thicken up. the temp is currently 17C/63F.

**update** 8:18am>well... we got only about an hour of sun, and already clouds have taken over...

we've now had about 48 hours with only a few tenths of an inch (6-7mm) of rain... but how long can it last? the view from space still shows absolutely nothing going on across northern india, although there are several huge clusters of rain and thunderstorms over much of pakistan, but showing little movement. this is why flooding can be a big problem during monsoon season... the upper level winds are very light, and areas of rain and storms and can sit over the same area for hours and hours at a time. at any rate... sunshine this morning will warm things up a bit and destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring us a better chance of some (possibly heavy) showers as we move into the afternoon today. then it appears that the potential for moderate to heavy rain will continue to increase throughout the coming week...

SUNDAY: a few peeks of sun in the midst of clouds and fog. good chance of a few periods of showers and possibly a thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: some showers likely in the evening. partly to mostly cloudy overnight with only a slight chance of rain.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of occasional rain, mainly during the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: still a good chance of significant rainfall. otherwise mostly cloudy with areas of fog.
high: 21C (69F)

Saturday, August 7, 2010

saturday evening>

we have mostly cloudy skies with some patchy fog around the area early this evening. i was expecting to see a few healthy peeks of sunshine today, but the glimpses we got were pretty pathetic. rainfall was pathetic, too... i only recorded a tenth of an inch as of 5pm, thanks to a few sprinkles and a couple of brief periods of light rain. the afternoon high struggled to 21C/70F.

our "break" from significant rainfall is now about 36 hours old. the satellite pics this evening are still not showing much organized rainy weather anywhere in our vicinity, but computer models are gradually bringing in more moist and unstable conditions during the next 2-3 days. that means our chances of occasional moderate to heavy rainfall will be on the increase, especially from monday through wednesday. in the meantime, enjoy the comparatively drier weather while it lasts...

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with occasional fog. chance of a passing shower or a brief thundershower.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: a few brief periods of sunshine... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a better chance of rainshowers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: lots of clouds and fog around, with rain again likely.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: occasional rain, mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with some fog... a good chance of more rainshowers.
high: 21C (70F)

saturday morning>

i haven't had to check on the rainfall tally since early yesterday afternoon, which is kind of a nice change of pace. it's overcast early this morning, but no fog around... and a comfortable temp of 18C/65F.

the satellite pics are showing very little happening in our corner of the world at the moment. as i mentioned yesterday, we are in the midst of a break in the action... but it may not last for long. we are likely to see a few glimpses of sunshine this morning, and possibly during the afternoon, but there will still be a decent chance for a few showers towards the latter half of the day. another wave of tropical moisture is scheduled to gradually manifest, starting tomorrow.... with increasing chances of heavy rain as we move through the first half of the week. in the meantime, today may be the best laundry-drying day, so take advantage of it!

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun this morning. but becoming foggy and cloudy during the afternoon with a chance of a shower or two. warmer.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible, mainly in the evening.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: a little morning sun... otherwise becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with a better chance of showers.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: lots of clouds and fog, with occasional rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain likely. cool.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a bit of sun returns... but still plenty of clouds and fog around. good chance of a few showers.
high: 21C (70F)

Friday, August 6, 2010

friday night>

our friday is ending very pleasantly... with mostly cloudy skies, a little fog, and very pleasant temps. the high today was just 20.5C/69F... and after our heavy rainfall overnight, we just picked up about a tenth of an inch of rain (both near the temple and below tushita), due to some light rain and drizzle throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. rainfall for the month of august now stands at 8.1" (20.6cm) near the main temple, and 8.75" (22.2cm) at the weathergeek office in upper mcleod ganj.

i'm a little apprehensive to say it, but we may be in for a stretch of drier weather from tonight into early sunday. it appears that we may be into a little gap between monsoon surges... and could actually get by with only a few scattered showers before the next onslaught arrives late in the weekend. we could actually see a few periods of sunshine both tomorrow and sunday, with temps warming a bit and humidity briefly dropping. but of course, with nearly 6 weeks left of the monsoon season, more heavy rains are on the way, and will probably dominate the first part of the new week...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few periods of mainly light rain possible.
low: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny in the morning... but mostly cloudy and foggy in the afternoon. one or two showers possible. warmer.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: some morning sunshine... but increasing clouds and fog by noon. good chance of rain and possible thundershowers developing.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: off and on rain... otherwise plenty of clouds and fog.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: more occasional rain likely. foggy and mostly cloudy.
high: 21C (70F)

friday morning>

it's a cool 16.5C/61.5F shortly after 6 o'clock this morning. rain has been falling all night, and continues to fall. my rain gauge is showing about 1.1" (2.8cm) overnight, which gives a total of 1.8" (4.6cm) in the past 24 hours. the satellite photos this morning are showing a large disturbance moving westward from kashmir and himachal pradesh into western pakistan.

**RAINFALL UPDATE** (overnight, up to 730am)
-near main temple... 1.40" (3.6cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 1.20" (3cm)

more disturbed weather is spinning in our direction from western parts of tibet, tapping the tropical moisture waiting on this side of the mountains, and will keep off and on rain in the forecast today. there is a chance that we could get some clearing at some point, but don't hold your breath. there is a better chance of partial clearing and some drier weather over the weekend, as computer models are pointing to a short pause in the active flow of tropical instability. but then rain chances appear to be on the rise again for late sunday into early next week. unless we get a couple of hours of sunshine, temps are going to stay rather cool for the next few days...

FRIDAY: periods of (mostly light) rain this morning, with more rain possible this afternoon. otherwise mostly cloudy, foggy and cool.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: chance of some light rain, mainly in the evening... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY: a few peeks of sunshine in the morning, then mostly cloudy and foggy. chance of a few scattered showers.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy in the morning... becoming mostly cloudy and foggy by noon. chance of more rain developing.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of occasional rain.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers around.
high: 22C (71F)

Thursday, August 5, 2010

thursday evening>

no sunshine at all today... with a high of only 19C/67F. i haven't received a rainfall report from near the temple yet this evening, nor have i had a chance to check my rain gauge... so the precip report will be added later. rain has been occasional, and quite light throughout the day, but it seems to be picking up a bit this evening... and the satellite pics are showing a good amount of ominous-looking weather headed in our direction.

**UPDATE** rainfall totals as of 735pm:
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.70" (1.8cm)
-near main temple... 0.75" (1.9cm)

there are three different sources i check twice a day for computer model guidance. two out of those three are pointing to a drying trend from mid-friday through sunday. the third (and possibly most consistent) is indicating that the recent pattern of daily moderate rainfall accumulation will continue for the next several days. at this point, i guess i tend to agree with the more pessimistic outlook... considering how wet it has been recently. we may see some lower daily amounts of rain over the weekend, but i don't think we're going to get an entire 24 hours of dry weather in the near future. a few peeks of sun may occur over the weekend though, and would be welcomed!

THURSDAY NIGHT: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely. heavy amounts are possible.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy skies with fog at times. still a good chance of occasional rain.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: some peeks of sunshine, especially in the morning. then mostly cloudy and foggy with a few showers, mainly in the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and a little sun. good chance of a few periods of rain.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with rain likely... some heavy.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.
high: 21C (70F)