the latest...

**Sunrise Thursday -- we have mostly clear skies, with a pleasantly mild temp near 63ºF/17ºC. Forecast details are on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above...

Sunday, October 31, 2010

sunday evening (31oct)>

from what i am hearing... raindrops have been very few and far between across the area over the weekend.  satellite pics continue to show scattered clouds, but the upper-level disturbance seems to have failed to be able to gather enough moisture for much in the way of showers.  there is still a chance for something to get stirred up during the next 24 hours or so... but don't hold your breath.

otherwise, more quiet and calm mid-autumn weather is expected during the coming week.  this is actually how it is supposed to be during this time of year.  statistically, climatologically and historically, november is the DRIEST month of the year.  temperatures will remain comfortably mild during the day, and cool at night... with little variation expected for the next few days...

SUNDAY NIGHT: just a slight chance of a brief shower overnight.  otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy, with an isolated shower possible in the afternoon.
high: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny.
high: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: continued mostly sunny and comfortably cool.
high: 18C (64F)

THURSDAY: lots of sunshine.
high: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY: sunny skies.
high: 17C (63F)

Friday, October 29, 2010

friday morning (29oct)>

satellite photos this morning show evidence of changes in the air.  an upper level disturbance is now beginning to affect northern india with an increase in clouds... and as this system moves across the area over the weekend, we'll also see a pretty good chance of some scattered showers developing.  any rain should be on the scattered and light side, with the best chances on saturday and sunday.  it will be cold enough for snow above 3000m/9800ft or so... so keep that in mind if you plan to be spending the weekend at higher elevations.  conditions will stabilize again next week, with some slightly cooler temps and diminishing rain chances...

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a chance of a shower or two... mainly during the PM.
high: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of a few showers.
low: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  breezy, with a good chance of scattered showers and possible thundershowers.
high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and breezy.  scattered showers around.
high: 17C (62F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and cool, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower.
high: 16C (61F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly cool.
high: 17C (62F)

Thursday, October 28, 2010

thursday morning (28oct)>

the recent beautiful weather will continue for another day or so... then some changes are coming.  an upper-level disturbance is already gathering strength over afghanistan, and will be moving into northwest india starting on friday.  although this system doesn't look as strong as the one that brought stormy weather last weekend, it does look potent enough to increase cloudiness and stir up a few showers... especially on saturday and sunday.  once again, it will be cold enough for some snow on the mountains, but any significant accumulations should remain above 3000m/9800ft.

THURSDAY: mostly sunny skies, pleasant temps.
high: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: becoming partly cloudy.
low: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy, breezy and mild.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 19C (66F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and breezy.  good chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and rather cool.  just a slight chance of a lingering shower.
high: 16C (61F)

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

wednesday morning (27oct)>

calm and quiet autumn weather will continue for the next couple of days... with plenty of sunshine, along with relatively pleasant temperatures.  there are some subtle changes in the forecast as we approach the weekend, but at this point, it doesn't look like anything particularly dramatic.  a weak upper-level disturbance will stir up the atmosphere enough to bring us an increase in clouds, along with a chance of a few scattered showers on friday through sunday... so factor that into your plans.  only a slight cooling trend is expected over the weekend.

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 18C (65F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clear and cool.
low: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 18C (65F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a few showers developing in the PM.
high: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  scattered showers and possibly a thundershower.
high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  breezy, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 17C (62F)

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

tuesday morning (26oct)>

great late october weather to continue... the overall weather pattern will remain very pleasant for the next few days, with comfortably mild/cool temperatures, along with lots of sunshine.  i'm still a little concerned that some patchy clouds or fog could develop during the afternoons, but so far we've escaped that problem for the most part.  looking ahead... each successive computer model run is showing less and less of an impact associated with the upper-level disturbance coming in late this week.  there will be an increase in clouds, and a better chance of some scattered showers starting on friday, but it is looking likely that we won't have a repeat of last weekend...

TUESDAY: sunshine this morning, with a few clouds possible during the PM hours.
high: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 11C (52F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny and nice!
high: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning, with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon.
high: 18C (65F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a couple of showers possible.
high: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: clouds, with just a few peeks of sun.  chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 17C (62F)

Monday, October 25, 2010

monday morning (25oct)>

satellite pics this morning show nothing but snowcapped mountain peaks across northern india, and not a trace of any cloudiness.  that means today's weather will feature more sunshine, with just a few clouds developing during the afternoon hours over the mountains.  this rather idyllic autumn weather pattern will continue for the next few days, but there are still indications of an increasing chance of showers by the end of the week.  actually, the very latest run of computer model guidance is looking less impressive with regard to this next weather system, but we'll just have to keep an eye on it as the week progresses...

MONDAY: sunshine this morning, with a few clouds over the mountains in the PM.
high: 17C (63F)

MONDAY NIGHT: clear skies.
low: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and rather pleasant.
high: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: continued mostly sunny...
high: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and breezy, with a slight chance of a late-day thundershower.
high: 18C (65F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 17C (63F)

Sunday, October 24, 2010

sunday afternoon (24oct)>

satellite pics are showing glorious clear skies across northern india this afternoon, except for clusters of cumulus clouds over the mountain peaks.  the weather pattern is calm and quiet, and should remain that way for most of the coming week.  temperatures aloft will continue to warm up, day by day, and that will keep the atmosphere stable.  the only problem with a stable atmosphere is that it can sometimes trap cool air and moisture near the surface, which can lead to patchy haze and fog.  we'll have to watch out for that... but for the most part, sunshine is going to be the dominant weather feature for a few more days.  the next "weather maker" will start to appear by late thursday, but more likely on friday into the weekend.  rain chances will be on the increase once again, with snow in the higher elevations... well above mcleod ganj, dharamkot and naddi.

THANKS AGAIN to my local observers (you know who you are!) for keeping me posted with regard to local temperatures, rainfall data and fog/cloud conditions (all of which can vary widely across our area).  high/low temps in the forecast are for upper mcleod ganj, so a general rule of thumb is to add on about 2-3C (4-6F) for locations from just below the main market, down to the main temple area.  of course the opposite applies to areas from tushita up to dharamkot and naddi, where you can subtract 1-2C (2-4F).  anyone is invited to share observations or perspectives... just leave a note on the "comments" section.

SUNDAY NIGHT: skies becoming mostly clear.
low: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: sunshine... with just a few afternoon clouds over the mountains.
high: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, breezy and mild.  chance of a shower or thundershower by late afternoon.
high: 19C (66F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, windy at times, with a good chance of some showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 17C (63F)

Saturday, October 23, 2010

saturday afternoon (23oct)>

final rainfall reports for the past couple of days have been very consistent from dharamsala through the mcleod ganj area... generally in the 1.0-1.5" (2.2-2.9cm) range.  thanks to our local weather observers for passing along the info!  there have been reports of hail and strong, gusty winds as well, mostly on friday.

there is gradual improvement in progress, as the upper-level low pressure center responsible for the stormy weather shifts into extreme western tibet and continues to weaken.  it looks like we have several days of quiet weather on the way... with lots of morning sunshine, but the usual build-up of afternoon clouds over the mountains.  as the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere warm up this week, we should see increasing amounts of sunshine, though, with temperatures remaining near or a bit below normal for this time of year.  the next storm system is currently poised to make an appearance toward the very end of the coming week... bringing another good chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with more mountain snows.  stay tuned...

SATURDAY NIGHT: evening clouds will give way to clear skies after sunset.
low: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY: morning sunshine, with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy by the afternoon.
high: 16C (60F)

MONDAY: sunny in the morning, with a few clouds over the mountains in the afternoon.
high: 17C (62F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and just a bit milder.
high: 18C (64F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of sunshine, with pleasant autumn temps...
high: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy, breezy and mild, with a slight chance of a thundershower late in the day.
high: 19C (66F)

Friday, October 22, 2010

friday afternoon (22oct)>

i've been in transit between continents and hemispheres the last couple of days, so i apologize for my absence!  thanks to my observers for letting me know that the rain, thunderstorms and snow on the mountains have indeed occurred as anticipated...  :-)

**UPDATE @545pm**  rainfall of 1.1" (2.8cm) was recorded near the main temple in mcleod ganj today.  the temperature dipped to 9.5C/49F during the storm... which is the coldest of the season.**

the center of the upper-level disturbance responsible for the stormy weather is sitting right on top of western kashmir late this afternoon, but is moving quickly southeast as it weakens... so it will be out of the picture by late tomorrow.  the potential for showers and thunderstorms will remain with us overnight into tomorrow afternoon (thanks to very cold air aloft), but then decrease rapidly thereafter.  temperatures have obviously cooled down quite a bit... and should remain on the comfortably cool side, with just slight moderation into early next week.  the good news is that we should have a string of dry and mostly sunny days in the wake of this storm system... some near perfect late october weather!

FRIDAY NIGHT:  a few showers and possible thunderstorms in the area.  otherwise partly cloudy and cool.
low: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: still a good chance of some scattered shower and/or thundershowers.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and chilly.
high: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY: morning sunshine, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  still on the coolish side.
high: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and not quite as cool.
high: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: lots of sun... pleasantly mild autumn temps
high: 18C (65F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  still very nice...
high: 19C (66F)

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

wednesday afternoon (20oct)>

increasingly active weather is in the forecast starting now... through saturday.  as advertised, a strong upper level disturbance is getting organized over central asia, and will continue to develop as it drops southeastward into northern india during the weekend.  the main characteristic of this system will be cold air aloft, which will create a period of instability that should peak between thursday night and saturday morning.  this means an increasing chance of a period or two of rain and thunderstorms for our area... but it's going to be cold enough for a decent bit of snowfall over the mountains, especially above 3000m/9800ft.  no crossing indrahar pass starting thursday, please!!

it looks like the moisture will quickly move out by mid-day saturday, leaving us with the coolest temps of the season so far, along with some of that crisp dry air we've been waiting for...

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: thundershower potential increasing.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: some scattered showers/thundershowers possible early... then becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight with a slight chance of a thundershower.
low: 15C (59F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of some showers and/or thunderstorms developing.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler, with some showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: breezy and cool with a few showers... mostly during the first half of the day. 
high: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly cool.
high: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: lots of sunshine... low humidity!
high: 17C (62F)

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

tuesday evening (19oct)>

the temperature inversion that has kept moisture trapped near the surface since sunday, producing the gloomy haze and cloudiness, has only a couple of days left.  still watching a major pattern change which is on the way for the end of the week.  temperatures aloft will start cooling by thursday, as a strong upper air disturbance sweeps in from the northwest.  as this system moves through northern india on friday and saturday, it will interact with the moisture already in place to produce a bout of rain and thunderstorms.  a shot of much cooler air will accompany this system as well... especially in the higher mountains above 3000m/9800ft, where the first significant snow of the season will possibly occur.  let me reiterate... dangerous trekking and traveling conditions are quite likely in the mountains and higher passes of himachal pradesh from thursday night through saturday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear after sunset, with some haze and light fog around.
low: 14C (58F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun, haze, clouds and light fog once again...
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy skies.  chance of a shower or thunderstorm by evening.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few periods of rain and/or thunderstorms likely.  breezy and cooler.
high: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: breezy and cooler, with a good chance of some scattered showers.  partly to mostly cloudy.
high: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY: becoming mostly sunny... crisp and cool.
high: 16C (61F)

Monday, October 18, 2010

monday evening (18oct)>

it's partly cloudy and hazy just before sunset tonight... after a gloomy day much like yesterday.  the high temp this afternoon in upper mcleod ganj was only 18.3C/65F.

the hazy sunshine lasted only until mid-morning... then we had mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the day.  it's still very warm aloft, compared to the surface, so our coolish, moist air has remained trapped since yesterday morning.  there shouldn't be any major changes during the next couple of days... expect a continued mixture of sun, haze, light fog and clouds during the day, with hazy nights.  but the computer models continue to hint at a strong upper-level disturbance coming our way for the end of the week.  a strong jetstream is associated with this disturbance, and it will plow into northern india, tapping the moisture that is already in place.  rain and thunderstorm chances will increase on friday into saturday, and temps will start to fall.  as i mentioned this morning, this looks like the first snow-maker for the mountains this season, so it would be smart to avoid trekking and crossing passes above 3200m or so after thursday...

**FYI** weathergeek forecasts will be more limited starting tomorrow... i am traveling, and will be out of mcleod ganj for the next couple of months..  i'll do my best to provide updates when i can, with the help of computer models, satellite pics, and info provided by local observers, but i apologize that some of the daily details i've enjoyed blogging about during the past 5 months will be impossible until i return!

MONDAY NIGHT:  some haze and light fog, otherwise mostly clear skies overnight.
low: 14C (58F)

TUESDAY: a little morning sun, then partly to mostly cloudy and hazy.  just a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and pleasantly cool.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and breezy, with a slight chance of showers by evening.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy, breezy and turning cooler, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 18C (65F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy, cool and breezy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 17C (62F)

monday morning (18oct)>

we have quite a bit of haze and light fog early this morning, with a current temp of 14.7C/58.5F here in upper mcleod ganj.

the low-level moisture that snuck in yesterday morning is still hanging around, giving us nearly saturated conditions before sunrise this morning.  that means, as soon as the sun comes up, clouds are going to quickly develop once again.  it is still quite warm in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, so all this cool dampness will remain trapped down here at ground level.  we may get a few peeks of sun throughout the day, but probably not much.  there is also at least a slight chance of a shower or thundershower both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.  THEN... our focus shifts to the end of the week when a strong upper-level disturbance will move from central asia into northern india.  this will be the first major snow-maker for the higher mountains... and will bring a period of rain and thunderstorms to the rest of us, starting on friday.  it's still too early to tell for sure, but this system could be the one that ends travel over the higher passes in lahaul, spiti and ladakh for this season...

MONDAY: some hazy sunshine early this morning... then partly to mostly cloudy.  a random shower or thundershower is possible during the PM.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY NIGHT: an evening shower possible, then becoming mostly clear, except for some light fog.
low: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: a bit of morning sun, then partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and mild.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: becoming cloudy and breezy, with a good chance of rain and some thunderstorms developing.  turning cooler.
high: 18C (65F)

Sunday, October 17, 2010

sunday evening (17oct)>

it's mostly cloudy in mcleod ganj early this evening... with the sun trying to break through the haze and clouds.  i recorded a high temp of just 19.4C/67F today.

well... if you've been following along, you know that the forecast kind of blew up in our faces this morning.  we went from 100% sunshine to nearly 100% cloud cover in the space of an hour... and no one was more surprised than me!  it really looked like we were in for a repeat of saturday, with tons of sunshine, but my best guess is that we had a sudden increase in low-level moisture, combined with the development of a strong temperature inversion.  it is now unusually warm aloft, with some denser, cooler air at the surface (in fact, during the night-time, it has been cooler in dharamsala than in upper mcleod ganj!)... which has trapped the moisture in the lower levels.  hhmmm... that's why they say meteorology is an inexact science!

until we see otherwise, let's expect this mix of sun, clouds, haze and a bit of fog to continue as we head into the new week, with just a slight chance of any rainfall developing.  there will be a weak disturbance and a bit of instability around tomorrow and tuesday, giving us a slight chance of a thundershower... BUT... a more significant weather system is looming on the horizon.  a strong disturbance is forecast to begin affecting northern india on friday, with an increasing chance of some rain, along with a gradual turn to significantly cooler temps...

SUNDAY NIGHT: clouds, haze and fog this evening will give way to clear skies after sunset.
low: 16C (60F)

MONDAY: early morning sun, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy and hazy with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.  an isolated PM thundershower is possible.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and breezy.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy, breezy and cool, with an increasing chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 19C (67F)

sunday morning (17oct)>

100% clear yet again this morning... with a temperature of 16C/61F here in upper mcleod ganj.

**UPDATE @ 850AM**  strangely, a lot of haze and light fog has developed in the couple of hours since sunrise.  visibilities are already quite limited from my vantage point up here at the top of mcleod ganj.  if this keeps up, our sunshiny sunday is going to be spoiled, and temps will be a bit cooler than expected!!**

if you liked yesterday, you will be equally pleased with today.  we'll have unlimited sunshine again until the early afternoon hours, when a few puffy cumulus clouds will develop over the mountains.  the atmosphere is very stable these days, which means it is nearly impossible for those cumulus clouds to grow into showers and thunderstorms, as they did for about 9 days in a row during the afternoons earlier this month.  as i've been mentioning, there are indications of some weak instability for monday and tuesday, but i am getting more and more doubtful that anything will come of it.  for now, i'll include a slight chance of a PM thundershower on those days.  the other thing to watch is the potential for a major shift in the pattern by the latter part of the week... which could bring a turn to cooler temperatures, and possibly some rainfall.  but most of that lies just beyond this forecast period...

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds, haze and some light fog at times.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: becoming clear around sunset.  mild for this time of year.
low: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning... but partly cloudy in the afternoon with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (71F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  a brief, isolated thundershower is possible in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  just a bit cooler.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  breezy and cooling down a bit...
high: 19C (67F)

Saturday, October 16, 2010

saturday night (16oct)>

just perfect.  that is the only way to describe today's weather.  we have clear skies at the moment, with a gorgeous sunset in progress.  skies were sunny all day, with just a few afternoon clouds over the mountains.  the high temp in upper mcleod ganj reached 21.5C/71F.

we have to go all the way back to the month of MAY to find a string of days as sunny and dry as we've had recently... but the difference is that during may, temps were topping 30C/86F... so it wasn't nearly as pleasant.  it looks like another beautiful day is shaping up for tomorrow... with lots of sun, along with comfortably mild temperatures.  on monday and tuesday, there is a small chance of some afternoon thundershower development, thanks to slightly cooling temperatures aloft, and a bit of moisture sneaking in from the southeast.  even then... rain chances will be relatively slight, with sunshine remaining the dominant feature.  we may cool down just a little bit by the middle of the coming week... but overall, expect more nice stuff!

SATURDAY NIGHT: clear skies.  mild.
low: 16C (61F)

SUNDAY: sunny in the morning, with just a few clouds over the mountains during the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but increasing clouds in the afternoon with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy skies, with an afternoon thundershower still possible.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and continued mild.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny skies.  just a bit cooler.
high: 19C (67F)

saturday morning (16oct)>

clear skies... and a mild 16C/61F just before sunrise this morning.

more super-fine october weather on the way for the weekend.  both today and tomorrow should feature unlimited sunshine until just after noon... with a build-up of clouds over the tops of the mountains for a couple of hours during the mid-afternoon.  temperatures will be on the warm side for this time of year, and even the night-time temps will be a few degrees milder than normal.  i'm still keeping an eye on a turn to slightly more unstable conditions early next week, which could bring a random afternoon thundershower or two... but the new data this morning looks pretty unimpressive.  plan on a continuation of the nice weather for the next several days, but as always, if you're going to be trekking/camping in the mountains, it's very smart to always be prepared for a sudden storm.

SATURDAY: sunny this morning.  becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.  super nice!
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: clear skies.
low: 17C (62F)

SUNDAY: sunny in the morning, with a few afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and some (mainly afternoon) clouds.  an isolated PM thundershower?
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny... still rather mild.
high: 21C (69F)

Friday, October 15, 2010

friday evening (15oct)>

now THIS is nice weather... we have mostly clear skies this evening, with just a few clouds hugging the mountains, after a day with lots of sunshine.  i recorded a high temp in upper mcleod ganj of 22.2C/72F, which is the warmest since the 9th of september.

it really is nice to be finally into a quiet and mostly sunny weather pattern, after the afternoon clouds, gloom and showers which have dominated since the official end of the monsoon.  it is unusually warm in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, relative to temperatures at the surface, and that's what is creating the stability which is keeping the clouds and rain at bay.  as i mentioned this morning... there is a little "fly in the ointment" on the horizon, however.  a pocket of moisture and instability is expected to form just to our south and east over the course of the next few days, which will increase rain chances from near shimla through uttar anchal and into nepal.  although the best chances of afternoon thundershowers will remain to our southeast, there is at least a slight risk that our near-perfect weather could be spoiled as we head into the new week.  just something to keep an eye on...

FRIDAY NIGHT: clear skies.  mild.
low: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY: lots of morning sun.  a few clouds during the afternoon.  quite warm for october.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: sunshine in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the PM.  still on the warm side...
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny AM, partly to mostly cloudy PM, with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies, with a brief afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: mix of sun and clouds, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

friday morning (15oct)>

temperatures have actually been steadily warmer the last several nights... and this morning my pre-sunrise temp in upper mcleod ganj is 16C/61F, which is the warmest since the 12th of september!  we have totally clear skies.

sunny mornings and partly cloudy afternoons will continue for the next few days at least, but i am seeing one "fly in the ointment".  there will be a little pocket of instability developing by sunday over southern parts of himachal pradesh, uttar anchal, into nepal.  the computer models are hinting at some thundershower development in these areas for the early part of next week.  currently, it looks like most of the activity should remain south and east of us... but keep in mind there is at least a slight risk of some afternoon thunder, starting on sunday.  temperatures will remain rather mild/warm for this time of year, with no blast of winterish chill expected through the forecast period...

FRIDAY: sunny this morning, with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon.  pleasantly mild.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly clear.... rather mild.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but partly to mostly cloudy in the PM.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies, with a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a brief PM thundershower possible.
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, October 14, 2010

thursday evening (14oct)>

skies are a bit hazy this evening, but most of the clouds have already dissipated, leaving us with a beautiful view of the mountains just before sunset.  not a drop of rain again today, with a high temperature in upper mcleod ganj of 21C/69.6F.

today was definitely one of the nicest days in the past several weeks... we had nearly 100% sunshine until around 12:30pm... and even during the afternoon hours the clouds never completely took over.  it looks like we will enjoy more of this kind of pleasant autumn weather for the next several days, thanks to stable conditions from the surface all the way through the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.  there are no signs of anything approaching that will disrupt our quiet pattern, so maybe we can put away the umbrellas for awhile!  temperatures remain a little above normal for this time of year... so far, this has been quite a mild october...

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly clear and comfortably cool.
low: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: sunny til noon, then partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: sunny AM, a few clouds PM.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and a few clouds.  stable temperatures...
high: 20C (68F)

thursday morning (14oct)>

it's another clear, beautiful morning... with 14C/58F just before sunrise.  we've now had 3 full days without measurable rainfall.

expect the morning sun to continue, with at least some clouds developing during the afternoon hours... but only a remote chance of any shower or thundershower action during the next several days.  a stable weather pattern continues to take hold across most of northern india, with warm temps aloft preventing the reliable daily dose of thunder and downpours that we had earlier this month.  our overnight temperatures have actually been moderating a bit the last few nights... while daytime temps are pretty much stable.

THURSDAY: lots of sunshine this morning.  partly to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy in the evening, but becoming clear around sunset.
low: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY: sun in the morning, partly cloudy in the PM.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny, but hazy at times.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, haze and a few clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 20C (68F)

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

wednesday evening (13oct)>

super nice evening in progress... clouds are dissipating just before sunset.  no rain again today, with a high temp this afternoon of 19.7C/67.5F in upper mcleod ganj.

actually, there were more clouds around this afternoon than we had yesterday afternoon, and for awhile, i was thinking we might end up getting a light shower.  the overall weather pattern is uneventful, and will continue that way right through the next 5 days.  there is an upper-level disturbance over central asia at the moment, but it looks like it will slip by just to our north.  temperatures aloft will continue to warm up a bit, and that will keep things stable over most of northern india.  the higher mountains and passes are vulnerable this time of year to sudden, brief storms that could bring hail and even some snow... but we won't get any of that (at least the snow part) down here at our elevation!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear.  comfortably cool.
low: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning, with a period of clouds during the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  mild temps.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and continued mild.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: more of the same... mostly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 20C (68F)

wednesday morning (13oct)>

it's another totally clear morning, with a pre-sunrise temperature of 14C/57F in upper mcleod ganj.  we've had no rainfall in the past 24 hours.

i always get a bit nervous to completely remove rain chances from the forecast... but it really does look like we are in line for some nice, quiet, dry weather for at least a few days.  there was more sun yesterday afternoon than we've had in weeks... as the afternoon clouds were much less widespread, thick and ominious than they have been.  this is thanks to the significant warming that is occurring aloft.  warmer air in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere acts as a cap, and effectively shuts down thundershower development.  if you plan to be trekking, climbing or overnighting in the mountains, it is still a good idea to be prepared for a sudden storm... but for the most part, it does look like the quiet autumn weather is here for a while...

WEDNESDAY: lots of sun this morning.  a mix of sun and a few clouds during the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: skies will become mostly clear around sunset... and remain clear overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning with a few clouds during the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: hazy sunshine... nice temps.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: no changes... mostly sunny, but hazy.
high: 20C (68F)

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

tuesday evening (12oct)>

we have partly cloudy, semi-hazy skies in mcleod ganj this evening.  other than clouds over the mountains during the afternoon hours, we had lots of sunshine today... with a high temp of 20.2C/68.4F.

it appears that we've finally broken out of our 10-day spell of afternoon thundershowers that started back on saturday the 2nd of october.  for the first time this autumn season, the pattern is finally starting to adapt to what it SHOULD look like this time of year.  it really is way past time to get rid of this instability that causes thick clouds and thunder to develop during the PM hours day after day.  right now, the temperatures in the middle and upper atmosphere are warming, compared to temps at the surface.  that spells stable conditions for the next several days... meaning... the morning sun will continue, but it should stretch into the afternoon hours as well.  there remains an outside chance of a random shower or a bit of thunder over the mountains during the mid-late afternoon hours, but by and large, dry weather will dominate.  pleasantly mild temps will continue by day, with comfortably cool temps by night...

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: unlimited sunshine in the morning, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: sunny AM, partly cloudy PM.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny skies, mild temps.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny, but quite hazy.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: hazy sunshine... continued quite mild.
high: 20C (68F)

tuesday morning (12oct)>

clear skies, a light breeze, and 13C/56F before sunrise this morning.  the only rainfall we've had in the past 24 hours was just a few light showers between noon and 1:00pm yesterday... but it was not enough to measure.

for the first time this month, the signs are looking optimistic for improving weather.  the first 11 days of october have been wetter than normal... thanks to thundershowers which have developed nearly every afternoon.  but some significant changes in the general pattern are in progress right now.  temperatures in the upper atmosphere are gradually warming up, which will finally bring some stability... it will be more difficult for the afternoon clouds to build large and high enough to develop into the kind of thundershower/storm action we've had over and over again.  our sunny mornings will continue, of course, but as we move through the week, the afternoons should gradually improve as well... with more sunshine and lower rain chances.  in response to the increasing sunshine, temperatures will be pleasant...

TUESDAY: sunny this morning.  becoming partly to mostly cloudy by afternoon, with risk of a brief, passing shower.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: slight chance of brief evening shower, then becoming clear.
low: 13C (56F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny skies in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: morning sunshine, with just a few afternoon clouds over the mountains.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and mild.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: still lots of sunshine, with pleasantly mild temps.
high: 21C (69F)

Monday, October 11, 2010

monday evening (11oct)>

have we turned the page?  we're currently enjoying the nicest evening in a long while... with partly cloudy skies, zero fog, zero thunder and zero rain.  it was a strange day... nice sunshine this morning, then a rapid increase in clouds and chilly wind which led to a short period of light showers between noon and 12:30pm (nothing measurable), which then transitioned into a mix of clouds and sun during the remainder of the afternoon.  today's high temp in upper mcleod ganj was 19.7C/67.5F.

it does look like our general weather pattern is changing... finally.  winds are turning more to the west-northwest in the upper atmosphere, and temperatures aloft have begun warming.  that's why another significant round of thundershowers was not able to get going today.  it might be a bit touch-and-go through tomorrow, with at least a slight chance of a passing thundershower, but i do expect drier and sunnier conditions to take hold as we head into the middle of the week.  as always, if you are trekking into the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours it is a good idea to be prepared for rapid changes... but in general, i think we are heading into a much more stable pattern.

MONDAY NIGHT: a few clouds this evening... but becoming clear overnight.
low: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning... with a mix of clouds and sun after noon.  a random, brief thundershower is possible.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: morning sunshine, with a few clouds during the afternoon.  nice temps!
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and seasonably mild.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: still plenty of sun, along with mild temps.
high: 21C (69F)

monday morning (11oct)>

yet another crystal clear sky early this morning... with a temp of 13C/55F.  satellite pics show a lone cluster of thunderstorms right along the pakistan/kashmir border, otherwise clear skies prevail across the rest of north india and nepal.

during the past 9 days, we've had 3.09" (7.8cm) of rain in upper mcleod ganj... the heaviest of which occurred last friday afternoon/evening when we had more than an inch in about an hour.  but... i am seeing some promising signs for the week ahead, finally.  temperatures in the upper atmosphere will be warming up steadily, which will gradually put a cap on the afternoon thundershower development.  although we've had nice sunshine every morning for the last couple of weeks, we are overdue to get into the pattern of all day sunshine that normally takes root this time of year.  i'm still going to include a shot at some PM thundershowers today... but chances will diminish considerably for the rest of the week.. with a trend toward increasing amounts of afternoon sunshine.

MONDAY: sunny skies this morning.  becoming partly to mostly cloudy around noon, with one or two afternoon thundershowers possible.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY NIGHT: any evening showers quickly ending... then becoming mostly clear.
low: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  only a slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: morning sun... a mix of sun and clouds in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and very comfortable.
high: 21C (69F)

Sunday, October 10, 2010

sunday evening (10oct)>

mostly cloudy skies with a thundershower in progress early this evening.  we made it through most of the day without rainfall... but the showers began just before 5pm.  today's high temp in upper mcleod ganj was 20C/68F**rainfall total today at the wxgeek office was just 0.09" (2mm)**

i almost thought we were going to make it through the day without the obligatory downpour... but the clouds building on the mountains this afternoon have finally started to unleash... so far, showers are lighter than they've been the last 3 days, though.  still absolutely no cut-and-dried changes to report... i still think we'll see a gradual end to the afternoon thundershower action during the coming week, but factor the rain chances into your plans UNTIL we are sure that we have broken out of this pattern.  otherwise, enjoy the morning sun, and the seasonably mild temperatures.

by the way, an interesting factoid>>  the last time we had a totally SUNNY day in mcleod ganj was 26 MAY.  are we overdue, or what??

SUNDAY NIGHT: thundershowers ending this evening... then becoming mostly clear by 8pm.
low: 13C (55F)

MONDAY: morning sunshine, followed by increasing clouds around noon.  still a thundershower or two during the PM hours.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning... partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with an isolated thundershower possible.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny skies in the morning, partly cloudy in the PM.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  mild.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 21C (69F)

sunday morning (10oct)>

coolest morning of the season... with 12C/54F in upper mcleod ganj before sunrise.  skies are clear.

it will be interesting to see how much longer our october "mini-monsoon" will last.  we've had at least some rainfall on 7 of the last 8 days... and i've recorded a total of 3" (7.6cm) during that time.  you know the story by now, all the available computer model guidance keeps reducing rain chances to zero... but that has not been reflected in reality.  at this point, it's just a day-by-day proposition to watch and see when the atmosphere will stabilize enough to put a cap on this afternoon thundershower action.  i am becoming more confident that we'll see improvements during the coming week.  temperatures aloft will begin to warm up, relative to temps at the surface... and that is a recipe for a much more settled weather scenario.  as far as temperatures here at ground-level... it's starting to cool down to where it should be this time of year.

SUNDAY: mostly sunny skies this morning.  becoming mostly cloudy around noon, with a good chance of a period of two of thundershowers during the PM.
high: 19C (67F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: any showers ending before sunset... then clearing and rather cool.
low: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny AM, mostly cloudy PM, with a random thundershower possible.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: lots of sunshine.  pleasantly mild temps.
high: 21C (69F)

Saturday, October 9, 2010

saturday evening (9oct)>

our saturday has turned out cooler and cloudier than expected... the sunshine was pretty much gone by 11am, and the high temp only reached 17.5C/63.5F in upper mcleod ganj.  showers during the afternoon delivered the following amounts of rain (along with some small hail):
-near main temple... 0.75" (1.9cm)
-upper mcleod ganj...0.63" (1.6cm)

we still have a nice big pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere, which is keeping things rather unstable here in the mountains of north india.  as we saw this morning, it only took a little sunshine to warm up the surface and destabilize the atmosphere.  once again, the computer models are rapidly bringing in some warmer temps aloft, thus cutting off the rain chances.  i think it's wise to continue to expect afternoon thundershowers for another couple of days.  eventually, we are going to get some stunning dry and sunny autumn weather around here, but things are running a bit behind schedule this year.  i really do think that we will see improvement by the middle of next week... but stay tuned to see how it all unfolds...

SATURDAY NIGHT: still a chance of a shower or two this evening... then becoming mostly clear after 7pm.  rather cool.
low: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning.  becoming mostly cloudy around noon, with a good chance of a period of thundershowers between 1 and 6pm.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY: sunshine in the morning.  partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a brief thundershower possible.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: sunny skies in the morning.  partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasantly mild.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny... nice fall weather.
high: 20C (68F)

saturday morning (9oct)>

it's the coolest morning of the season so far... with 12.8C/55F just before sunrise.  skies are clear.  here is a recap of rainfall totals from yesterday afternoon and evening:
-near main temple... 1.45" (3.7cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 1.12" (2.8cm)

we've been stuck in a rut for almost a week now... with our routine of morning sun, a mid-day build-up of clouds, followed by a period or two of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and early evenings.  can we break out of that pattern anytime soon?  first, we have to get rid of the pool of colder air aloft that is responsible for the recently unstable conditions.  this time of year, the temperatures are gradually cooling down in all levels of the atmosphere... but it is the relative difference between temps at the surface and aloft that creates the volatility leading to PM storms.  there are subtle indications that things will become more stable as we head into next week, but in the meantime, be prepared to dodge more thundershowers.  evening and night-time temperatures have been cooling down... but we're still managing to get some mild to warm temps in the daytime, thanks to our sunny mornings...

SATURDAY: morning sunshine... then becoming partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a good chance of a couple of thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: evening thundershowers ending.  becoming mostly clear and cool overnight.
low: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: sunshine in the morning.  partly cloudy in the afternoon with a continuing risk of a thundershower or two.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the PM, with just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 20C (68F)

Friday, October 8, 2010

friday evening (8oct)>

it is raining yaks and mountain goats this evening... after a period of much lighter thundershower activity early in the afternoon.  rain is falling quite heavily at the moment... so i'll have some significant rainfall totals to report later this evening.  check back here for that.  the high temp around noon (before the clouds and thunder) was 20.7C/69.3F.

**rainfall update @ 740pm... i recorded 1.12" (2.8cm) of rain here in upper mcleod ganj this afternoon and evening.  that brings the october total to 2.37" (6cm).**

well i am very glad i didn't buy the computer models' deceptive tactics.  for the past 3 days, they keep trying to drive this instability out of here, and decrease rain chances to near zero... but without fail, we continue to see potent thundershowers/storms in the afternoons and early evenings.  i am STILL not seeing a dramatic change in the overall weather pattern... so i am strongly inclined to keep PM rain in the forecast for the next few days.  so far, this increasingly stable airmass advertised by the computer models appears to be just fantasy!  so... expect more morning sun, along with the potential for things to turn rapidly ugly in the afternoons.  temps have been very consistent from day to day... with overnight lows around 14C (57-58F) and daytime highs around 20-21C (69-71F).  no major changes in that department in the foreseeable future...

FRIDAY NIGHT: showers and thunderstorms this evening will end after sunset... with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny in the morning.  increasing clouds around noon, with a couple of thundershowers likely during the afternoon/evening.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: morning sun, then some afternoon clouds with a good chance of a period of thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: sunshine in the morning will give way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  still a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a mixture of sun and clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

friday morning (8oct)>

clear skies... 14C/57F before sunrise this morning.  this is the 14th clear morning in a row...  but we've had 1.25" (3.2cm) of rain in the past week, thanks to the nearly daily dose of afternoon thundershowers.

this morning's computer model guidance continues to decrease rain potential to near zero... but as i've been mentioning the last couple of days, i am not buying it until i see evidence of it!  this afternoon thundershower action we've been getting has been due to a pool of cold air aloft, combined with upper-level winds that are blowing directly from the north.  that causes all of the convection to slide right off the dhauladars into mcleod ganj.  according to the satellite pics, we've been practically the ONLY beneficiaries of rainfall in all of northern india... aside from the few lucky folks caught beneath one or two other scattered showers along the front ranges of the mountains.

i'm going to include a moderate chance of thundershowers in the forecast for this afternoon, and then be optimistic and say only a slight chance as we head into the weekend.  then, we should get rid of them altogether thereafter.  otherwise, expect the beautiful morning sun to continue unabated... along with comfortably mild fall temps...

FRIDAY: lots of sun this morning.  clouds will build up by mid-day, with a good chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: any early evening showers ending... followed by mostly clear skies.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: sunny in the morning.  partly to mostly cloudy in the PM with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: morning sun, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 20C (68F)

Thursday, October 7, 2010

thursday evening (7oct)>

a decent evening is in progress... after another impressive thundershower during the mid-afternoon.  i had at least 0.80" (2cm) of rain at the wxgeek office in upper mcleod ganj... all of that came in just over half an hour, along with several minutes of pea to marble-sized hail.  according to my records, that's the most rain we've had since 22 september... and the 5th of the past 6 days with at least some rain during the afternoon.  today's high, before the rain, was 21.7C/71F.

**UPDATE @ 745pm... rainfall totals**
-near main temple... 0.50" (1.3cm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.84" (2.1cm)

i'm still in the same mood i was in this time yesterday... very reluctant to remove afternoon thundershower chances from the forecast.  everyday, the computer models try to advertise a return to a more stable atmosphere... but apparently there is still just enough cold air aloft to bring a bit of rock-n-roll to our afternoons.  for that reason, let's just expect that there will be at least a moderate chance of thunder and a period of rain during the PM hours for the next 2-3 days.  the glorious mornings will continue, though... so if you are planning a hike or a picnic, best to get started early.  still no evidence of any significant cooling...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a brief shower possible til 7pm... then becoming mostly clear.
low: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: lots of morning sunshine (again).  becoming partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a good chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: sun in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.  slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  an isolated, brief PM shower?
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: sunny morning, partly cloudy afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: lots of sun, with just a few PM clouds.
high: 21C (69F)

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

wednesday evening (6oct)>

skies are partly cloudy just before sunset... after a potent late afternoon/early evening thundershower dumped 0.31" (8mm)of rain here in upper mcleod ganj.  we also had some small hail right around 5pm.  otherwise it has been a normal day... tons of morning sun, increasing clouds during the afternoon, and a high temp of 21.4C/70.5F.

i have to say that i am reluctant to take afternoon thundershowers out of the forecast.  although our computer models continue to try to push this recent instability further east, there are indications that cold air will remain entrenched in the upper atmosphere for another day or two... which will be enough to stir up trouble during the mid-late afternoon hours.  so... i'm not going to clear this thundershowery stuff out of here just yet.  if it DOES disappear, then we can be pleasantly surprised.  having said that, there should be a definite trend toward less moisture in the air, along with some slightly cooler temps, by early next week...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: showers ending early... then becoming mostly clear by 8pm.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: lots of morning sunshine.  increasing clouds around noon, with a thundershower or two possible after 2pm...
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: morning sun, with increasing clouds and a chance of a brief thundershower in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: sunny in the morning... partly cloudy in the afternoon.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and cooling down just a bit...
high: 19C (67F)

wednesday morning (6oct)>

another clear morning... with a pre-sunrise temp of 15C/59F.  i recorded a barely measurable 0.01" of rain during our thundersprinkles yesterday afternoon.

our weather scenario will remain pretty much the same today... there is still enough instability, thanks to some cold air aloft, to produce random showers/thundershowers again this afternoon.  after that, rain chances will drop back below 20% for the end of the week.  there will still be a build-up of clouds in the afternoons, with isolated or scattered thundershowers over the mountains, though.  so far this autumn season, we still haven't been able to get a strong enough push of dry air from central asia to completely sweep this lingering moisture out of here.  until that happens, i guess we'll have to be satisfied with our string of sunny, gorgeous mornings... and just learn to cope with the clouds and occasionally thundery afternoons and evenings...

WEDNESDAY: sunny this morning.  increasing clouds around noon, with a good chance of a thundershower at some point during the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: chance of an evening shower... then clearing after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.  just a slight chance of a brief thundershower during the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: lots of sun in the morning.  a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  mild temps.
high: 20C (68F)

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

tuesday evening (5oct)>

it is mostly cloudy with some fog here in mcleod ganj just before sunset this evening.  we had thunder, along with a few light showers between 3 and 515pm, after another beautiful sunny morning, and a decent early afternoon.  will post rainfall totals later this evening... but i'm thinking it amounted to less than a tenth of an inch (2mm).  today's high temp was 21C/70F at the top of town.

the latest satellite pics show clusters of thundershowers along the front ranges of the himalayas... from western himachal pradesh (over us) all the way through uttar anchal to extreme western nepal.  we have a north-northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere, so that is pushing all the afternoon convective development from the mountain peaks down onto the foothills.  there are indications that the upper-air flow will become more westerly during the next few days, which should give us lower chances of afternoon thunder action by the end of the week.  other than that... no significant changes are ahead... expect the beautiful mornings to continue, with the usual increase in cloudiness during the afternoons.  temperatures will cool down only slightly...

TUESDAY NIGHT: chance of a lingering shower early this evening, with skies becoming mostly clear by 8pm.
low: 14C (58F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of morning sun... followed by increasing clouds by mid-day.  a brief thundershower is possible during the PM hours.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning.  partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny AM, partly cloudy PM.
high: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies with a brief PM thundershower possible.
high: 20C (68F)

tuesday morning (5oct)>

according to my records, this is the coolest morning of the new fall season (just barely)... with a pre-sunrise temp of 13.9C/57F.  skies are 100% clear.  here are rainfall totals from our thunderstorm yesterday afternoon:
-near main temple... 0.20" (5mm)
-upper mcleod ganj... 0.09" (2mm)
this was the first measurable rain in mcleod ganj since 24 september.

...and more may be coming this afternoon.  we'll start off with brilliant sunshine again this morning, but clouds will be on the increase by noon, with a good chance of another round of scattered showers/storms developing over the mountains and drifting through town during the afternoon hours.  this recent action is thanks to an upper-level circulation and pool of colder air aloft, which has increased the instability of the atmosphere.  with colder air aloft, the heat and moisture building at the surface rises much more easily (and rapidly), condensing into towering cumulus clouds...which are the pre-cursor of thunderstorms.  anyway... most of the day will be nice, just be ready to take cover if/when things turn nasty for an hour or two.  conditions will stabilize somewhat as we head into the latter half of the week... so afternoon shower potential will gradually diminish.

TUESDAY: lots of morning sun.  increasing clouds by mid-day, with a good chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: chance of an evening thundershower... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 14C (57F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny in the morning, then partly to mostly cloudy in the PM.  only a slight chance of a passing thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: plenty of morning sun, with partly cloudy skies in the PM.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: sun and a few clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

Monday, October 4, 2010

monday evening (4oct)>

our thunderstorm this afternoon broke a nine-day rainless streak.  thunder began just after 1:00pm, with a period of mostly light showers between 2:00 and 3:00pm.  i was less than 100 meters away from a cloud-to-ground lightning strike at around 2:15pm that hit a tree just below the cell tower up near rishi bawan... there was orange smoke for a minute or two!  despite all the thunder and lightning drama, my rainfall total in upper mcleod ganj was just 0.09" (2mm).  the high temp today before the rain was 21C/69.5F.

a "wiggle" in the upper air pattern is overhead right now, and will gradually shift south and east of us during the next 24-48 hours.  during this time... we can expect a few afternoon/early evening thundershowers.  we'll still get our morning sunshine, but just be aware that between early afternoon and sunset, there could be a random thundershower or two.  the instability should pass by the latter half of the week... leaving us with sunny to partly cloudy skies.  temperatures have really not been cooling down much just yet.  but due to the shorter hours of daylight, we will see a slow downward progression toward the weekend...

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with just a slight chance of a shower before 10pm... then becoming clear overnight.
low: 14C (58F)

TUESDAY: morning sunshine... with increasing clouds around noon.  partly to mostly cloudy PM, with a good chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny in the morning... partly cloudy in the afternoon with a chance of a brief thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies with only a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: sunshine in the morning, with some afternoon clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

monday morning (4oct)>

clear skies before sunrise... with a comfortable temp of 15.5C/60F.  the current satellite view shows a cluster of clouds between central rajasthan and the delhi NCR, with clear skies elsewhere.

i'm still concerned about some random thundershowers the next couple of days.  so far... they have developed and remained mostly over the higher mountains during the PM hours... but there are indications that one or two of them could drift into mcleod ganj.  there is a fairly potent upper-air disturbance sliding through today and tomorrow, with a pool of colder air aloft.  although no long-lasting, widespread rain is expected, just be prepared for the potential of a thundershower between approximately 2pm and 6pm... both today and tomorrow.  otherwise, we'll continue to see lots of morning sunshine... along with temperatures remaining pretty close to 21C (70F) during the day, and 15C (59F) overnight, right through the week.

MONDAY: morning sun, with increasing clouds by the afternoon.  a thundershower is possible after 2pm or so.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY NIGHT: chance of an evening thundershower... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a chance of a shower or a thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies... just a slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: sunny in the morning... partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

Sunday, October 3, 2010

sunday evening (3oct)>

it's cloudy and foggy here in the main square of mcleod ganj only a few minutes before sunset.  there were no surprises today... nice morning sunshine, with increasing clouds throughout the mid-day, afternoon and evening hours.  although i hear reports of some light showers above dharamkot... there was not so much as a sprinkle in mcleod.  today's high on tushita road just below the mountaineering center was 21C/70F.

satellite pics this evening show quite a few thundershowers hugging the mountains of central kashmir, himachal pradesh, and northern uttar anchal.  the trekkers might be a little disturbed, but it looks like very few populated areas are being affected.  the general weather scenario will change little during the next several days... still, our recent pattern of morning sun with an afternoon build-up of clouds will prevail.  it is impossible to rule out a random/passing thundershower at some point during the PM hours during the next 2-3 days, as cold air aloft keeps things a bit unstable over the mountains.  but other than that, we are in a holding pattern... our recent temperatures, humidity levels and mix of sun and clouds will keep on keepin on.

SUNDAY NIGHT: evening clouds and fog... then, becoming mostly clear by 8pm.
low: 15C (59F)

MONDAY: lots of morning sun... with increasing clouds by afternoon, along with a chance of a brief thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning.  partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a thundershower possible.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: a sunny morning... partly cloudy in the afternoon.  just a slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: morning sun... partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies.  temps steady...
high: 21C (69F)

sunday morning (3oct)>

crystal clear skies and 15.5C/60F before sunrise this morning.  you've probably noticed that our early morning low temperatures have been very steady for about the past month... between 14-16C (57-61F).  still no indication of the coming winter season!

we'll have another beautiful morning, with lots of sun... but clouds will again be on the increase towards noon, with a pretty good chance of more random thundershowers developing up towards truind and actually along the whole south side of the dhauladar range.  as we saw yesterday, some of this action could sneak down into dharamkot, bhagsu, naddi and mcleod ganj before it dissipates.  i was on my way back from triund yesterday afternoon... and we had a pretty good shower around the magic view cafe at about 415pm.  any showers that make it down to mcleod should be fairly light... and possibly not measurable at all.  just be on the lookout.  this potential for brief thundershowers during the afternoons will continue for the next 2-3 days, due to some cooling aloft, creating a bit of instability.  otherwise, the morning sun will continue day after day... and temperatures will remain consistently mild...

SUNDAY: sunny this morning.  becoming partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon, with a brief period of thundershowers possible.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: clearing skies. 
low: 15C (59F)

MONDAY:  lots of morning sun, but increasing clouds again in the afternoon.  one or two brief thundershowers possible.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: morning sun, some afternoon clouds.  again, a chance of random thundershower during the mid- late afternoon hours.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: sunshine in the morning, a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 20C (68F)

Saturday, October 2, 2010

saturday evening (2oct)>

we have partly cloudy skies just after sunset this evening.  after another sunny morning, we had a bit of an active afternoon (at least compared with the past week+), as some thundershowers which developed over the dhauladars tried to drift down into mcleod ganj before dying.  rainfall was not measurable, but there were a few sprinkles and brief light showers... along with some rumbles of thunder.  today's high temp at the wxgeek office was 21.3C/70.3F.

i had really not expected these thundershowers until early next week, but apparently the atmosphere is now unstable enough to stir up a little action during the afternoon.  although nothing significant or long-lasting is expected, it looks like we will have to include the mention of random, brief thundershowers in the forecast for the next few afternoons.  the chances will be better the higher up the mountain you are.  we'll still have gorgeous mornings though, with pretty much unlimited sunshine until after 1100-1130am or so.  temperatures will show little change right through the middle of next week...

SATURDAY NIGHT: patches of clouds and fog will disappear before 8pm.  then clear skies overnight.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: lots of sun in the morning... becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a random, brief PM thundershower possible.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, with increasing afternoon clouds.  an isolated thundershower possible after 2pm.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny.  still that risk of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

saturday morning (2oct)>

clear skies and 16C/60F before dawn.  it looks like another beautiful morning is shaping up, with the usual development of clouds expected by the early afternoon.  the pattern will remain virtually unchanged right through the middle of next week... but a bit of cooling aloft may bring enough instability for one or two afternoon thundershowers over the mountains, especially on monday and tuesday.  nothing to get concerned about at this point... still generally great weather for outdoor activities.

SATURDAY: sunny skies this morning.  becoming partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon.  mild temps.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: any clouds/fog will clear out quickly after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny AM.  partly cloudy PM with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies... with just a small chance of a random PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny with a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

Friday, October 1, 2010

friday evening (1oct)>

october has begun pretty much the same as september ended...  we have clouds and fog just before sunset this evening... after sunshine this morning, and a mix of clouds and sun during most of the afternoon.  today's high temp was a comfortable 21.4C/71.5F.

it really is amazing how beautiful our mornings have been during the past 5-6 days... but equally amazing that so much cloudiness is still developing in the afternoons and evenings.  i really don't see anything to jolt us out of this pattern.  the overall weather scenario will change little during the next several days.  the one notable change is that a series of weak upper-level disturbances will drift through... bringing in some slightly cooler temperatures in the upper atmosphere.  that will increase the instability and spell a little better chance of some afternoon thundershowers over the mountains of himachal pradesh.  those thundershowers will be very few and far between... but as we head into early next week, there is at least a mentionable chance of encountering one or two.  temperatures will be cooling down bit by bit, with the longer nights and shorter days of autumn...

FRIDAY NIGHT: clouds and fog this evening... then becoming mostly clear after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

SATURDAY: lots of morning sun, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning... mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a slight chance of a brief thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly sunny skies, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny.  an afternoon thundershower is possible.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with still a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

friday morning (1oct)>

we have clear skies and 15C/59F early this morning.  satellite pics show very little happening across pakistan, northern india and nepal.

expect our daily dose of morning sunshine to continue right through the forecast period.  we'll still get a build-up of clouds during the afternoon hours, but as threatening as they may look at times, no significant rainfall is expected.  there was some thunder over the mountains yesterday afternoon... but frankly that could occur on just about any day during this time of year.  i am a little concerned about a series of weak upper-level disturbances that will wobble through northern india during the first part of next week.  although instability and moisture are minimal, there is a chance we could see a couple of rounds of random thundershowers.  any rainfall that does occur should be quite light, though.  extended guidance from the computer models is showing pretty stable temperatures into the middle of next week...

FRIDAY: sunshine this morning.  partly to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: evening clouds... then clearing shortly after sunset.
low: 14C (58F)

SATURDAY: lots of morning sun, but becoming partly to mostly cloudy in the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies, with a chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.  a thundershower is possible, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)