the latest...

**It's been a while since we've had totally clear skies at sunrise, but that's the story early on this Friday morning. The temp is near 64ºF/18ºC.

Monday, February 28, 2011

active weather again this week... (pm.28.feb.11)>

cloudy this evening... we've had 100% overcast since about 1:00pm.  there were some nice periods of sunshine through the high clouds this morning, though, and that boosted our high temp to 52.7F (11.5C) here at the top of mcleod ganj.

the satellite pics are quite a mess right now... lots of clouds... mostly of the middle and high variety, extending from the persian gulf all the way into northern india.  this is an indication of the very extensive area of disturbed weather in the upper atmosphere that will be our dominant weather feature for this entire week.  we should see some peeks of sun from time to time, but overall, it will be a cloudy scenario through friday, with increasing chances of scattered showers and thundershowers.  i still think wednesday and thursday will be the worst days this week... but stay tuned... as the exact timing of the periodic waves of nasty weather could shift 12 hours either forward or backward.

there will be more widespread heavy snowfall in the himalayas this week... in fact, it was already snowing again up at triund this afternoon.  this time, i think the snow line will have a hard time getting all the way down to mcleod... but considering the ultra-cold nature of this late winter of 2011, it would be prudent to keep on top of the developing situation...

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and breezy at times.  chance of a shower or thundershower developing.
low: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY: some brief periods of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy.  a couple of showers or thundershowers are possible.
high: 11C (52F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy.  periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 10C (50F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy... still a good chance of a few showers around.
high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: isolated showers??  otherwise increasing amounts of sunshine.  a bit milder.
high: 12C (53F)

clouds vs. sun: the sequel... (am.28.feb.11)>

we have a good amount of high clouds across the area early this morning, with a milder temp of 44.5F (6.9C).  some warmer air is trying to surge into northern india, but unfortunately, the increasing cloudiness is not going to allow us to take much advantage of it.

satellite photos show our next weather-maker... a broad area of upper-level low pressure forming between the perisan gulf and pakistan.  a fast jet stream is going to keep batches of mid- and high clouds streaming across our skies today, but with any luck, we'll be able to get a few periods of sun in between.  we may not be so fortunate later in the week, as this next series of disturbances will begin to cause clouds to thicken up and rain chances to increase... especially during the wednesday to friday period.

surprise, surprise... more heavy snow is on its way to the mountains during the coming first few days of march.  and for us, the new month will begin as the old one has ended... on the wet and chilly side...

MONDAY: clouds, with a few periods of sun mixed in at times.  a bit milder, with only a slight chance of a late day shower.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  a chance of a shower or thundershower overnight.
low: 7C (45F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  increasing chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 11C (52F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of rain.  a thunderstorm possible as well.
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 10C (50F)

FRIDAY: still cloudy...  quite cold, with more rain in the area.
high: 9C (49F)

Sunday, February 27, 2011

relatively quiet... (pm.27.feb.11)>

quite a bit of variety today, weatherwise... with a good amount of sun along with some nasty clouds during the noon hour and even a couple of brief, light rain/sleet/snow showers during the early afternoon.  our high temp was only 48.2F (9C), with less than 1mm of precipitation.

the way things look at the moment, tomorrow will be another relatively quiet day, although we'll have some clouds around.  our super-fast jet stream carrying upper-level disturbances from the middle east into central and south asia will remain active, and that means we'll see more inclement weather as we approach the middle of the week.  wednesday and thursday currently hold the potential to be the most cloudy and rainy days of the next several... but the timing could vary, so stay tuned.

temps should warm up slightly during the next 48 hours... but then plateau or even cool off again for the rest of the week...

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear early, with increasing clouds late.
low: 4C (39F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  slight chance of a shower or two by late afternoon.  milder.
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of showers and thundershowers.
high: 12C (53F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely.  a thunderstorm possible as well.
high: 11C (51F)

THURSDAY: clouds... a few peeks of sun.  some rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 10C (50F)

FRIDAY: a few left-over light showers... otherwise becoming partly cloudy.
high: 10C (50F)

glimpses of sun... (am.27.feb.11)>

our sunday morning is dawning with partly cloudy skies and a mid-january-like temp of 37F (2.8C).  i'm actually surprised to see these patches of clouds... they indicate that the atmosphere hasn't completely calmed down from our storm system of the past few days.

our weather pattern can be best described as "dirty"... a fast moving jet stream, pools of cold air aloft, and occasional "wiggles" or weak circulations in the upper atmosphere which prevent us from enjoying any long stretches of cloudless, sunny skies.  today and tomorrow look to be the best days of the coming week, when we should be able to eek out some decent sunshine... but even so, a random, isolated shower or two is not out of the question.  things will become more disturbed or "dirty" from tuesday through thursday, with more clouds and better chances of rain entering the forecast again.  the good news is that temperatures should moderate a bit during the next few days, though remaining below normal for the end of feb / beginning of march...

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... with milder temps.  risk of a brief sprinkle or light shower (of rain OR snow).
high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 4C (40F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy with a slight chance of a light shower or two... mainly PM.
high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy... good chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 11C (52F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  scattered showers around.
high: 12C (53F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thundershowers.
high: 11C (51F)

Saturday, February 26, 2011

improvement... (pm.26.feb.11)>

this is turning out to be one of the coldest days of the entire winter season... as our high temp only reached 41.5F (5.3C) during the mid-afternoon.  we've had exactly 1.0cm (0.40") of melted/liquid precipitation during the past 24 hours... and that included about 1/2 to 1" of snow in mcleod ganj, and 2-3" of snow in parts of naddi and dharamkot this morning between about 8am and noon.  the snow melted quickly, but by all accounts, it is one of the latest accumulating snows in the immediate area of the past 10-15 years.  previous to today, the latest accumulating snowfall i remember, personally, occurred on 17-18 feb, 2003.

we've still got a few sprinkles and random very light showers going on early this evening, but all afternoon, skies have been trying to clear a bit just to our west and south.  in the near term, our weather news is relatively good... we should have a break in the action for 48 hours or so... with temps warming up a few degrees, and sunshine making a return.  but the upper-level pattern remains very active, and that means there is another disturbance on the way for the middle of the coming week.  clouds will thicken and rain chances will be on the increase once again, which will stall any hope for a seasonal march warm-up...

SATURDAY NIGHT: a stray shower possible yet this evening... then clearing skies.  cold!
low: 3C (37F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning... partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a slight chance of a brief light shower.  more mild...
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: increasing cloudiness.  a late afternoon/evening shower possible?
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 11C (52F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of some showers and thundershowers.
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY: more rain and thundershowers possible.  otherwise mostly cloudy and cool.
high: 9C ((49F)

SATURDAY MORNING'S SNOW...

*2:03pm... temp 40.5F (4.7C).  all snow melted here at the top of mcleod ganj.  just received a report of 5cm (2") of snow in naddi village... although it is also melting rapidly.

*12:44pm... still mostly cloudy, but it appears that the snow is over.  generally an inch or less in mcleod ganj.  waiting for some reports from higher up... 

*11:20am... mix of light rain and snow.  temp is 35.4F (1.9C).

*11:01am... snow is now very light, and skies are brightening a bit.  snow on concrete surfaces and railings is melting quickly... but there remains a light coating on the trees.

*10:46am... still snowing moderately... but no wind now.  i just measured about a half inch on my rooftop.  it's very wet and slushy, since the air temp is a couple of degrees above freezing.

*10:27am... moderate snow... rapidly accumulating on trees and rooftops here at the top of mcleod ganj.  temp is 36F (2.2C).

*10:17am... huge flakes of snow.  visibility is only 200m or so.  if this keeps up, we'll start to see some accumulation.

*10:09am... it's breezy, with a bizarre mix of snow, rain and thick fog.  precipitation is generally light, but there have been a few quick bursts of moderate rain/snow in the last hour and a half.

*9:53am... 36.9F (2.7C)... now a mix of light rain and snow. snow isn't sticking.

*9:00am... we're getting a fairly heavy snow shower... low visibility. temp 37.5F (3C).

*8:33am... snow/sleet mixture in upper mcleod ganj.

*7:41am... report of snow mixed with rain in naddi village.

YOUR FULL FORECAST BELOW...



damp and chilly... (am.26.feb.11)>

we have clouds, fog and light rain showers in mcleod ganj prior to sunrise this morning, with a temp of just 39.2F (4C).  despite the rumbling thunder and occasional showers overnight, i am measuring just 2mm (.08") of rain thus far.

heavy snow has been falling since yesterday afternoon in the mountains of kashmir, ladakh and himachal pradesh, adding to the heavy snowfall which occurred on wednesday and thursday.  also, a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms swept from punjab through southern himachal overnight... which we caught the northern edge of.  this morning's satellite pics indicate that most of the organized storminess has now moved to our east, but we are left with lots of low clouds, fog, and lingering showers in its wake.

as i've been mentioning for days now... we are truly stuck in a pattern that refuses to relent.  although we will likely see a bit of improving weather on sunday into early monday, yet another "wiggle" in the jetstream is scheduled for late monday into wednesday of next week... bringing more clouds and increasing rain chances. this pattern will also prevent the warm air building further south on the subcontinent from making its way northward anytime soon...

SATURDAY: cold, with clouds, fog and a mixture of rain and snow showers.  light accumulations likely in naddi and dharamkot, and upper parts of mcleod ganj and bhagsu.  some clearing during the PM...
high: 7C (44F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: becoming clear to partly cloudy... but chilly.
low: 4C (40F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy skies, with a slight chance of a brief shower.  milder.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: increasing cloudiness, with showers possible by late afternoon.
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 10C (50F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy... still a risk of some showers around.
high: 11C (51F)

Friday, February 25, 2011

where is spring?... (pm.25.feb.11)>

it's cloudy this evening, with a temp of 45F (7C).  today's high only reached 49.6F (9.8C) around noon.  once again, we got to enjoy a bit of sun this morning, but clouds were the dominant feature during the PM hours.

if we're going to get some rain this weekend, it is likely to occur tonight into mid-day saturday.  satellite pics this evening show a large area of clouds with embedded showers and thundershowers from eastern pakistan into kashmir.  i think it will be difficult for us to escape the next 18 hours or so without at least some rainfall.  due to the chilly temps, the snow line may drop all the way to 2000m (6500ft) overnight, but i think significant accumulations of snow will stay higher up the mountain.

i am very sorry that i have little good news to report... because except for some brief improvement on sunday into early monday... it looks like yet another upper-level disturbance is on the way next week.  that means more clouds and a decent chance of some showers... not to mention temperatures which will remain well below normal...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and windy at times with a good chance of a few showers... a thunderstorm or two possible as well.  cold!
low: 4C (39F)

SATURDAY: best chance of lingering showers in the morning... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a smaller chance of a shower in the PM.  still rather cold.
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  just a slight chance of a sprinkle or two.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy skies in the morning, becoming cloudy by late afternoon with a chance of some showers.
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of some rain.
high: 11C (51F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with the chance of rain showers remaining...
high: 10C (50F)

atmospheric conflict... (am.25.feb.11)>

skies are partly cloudy early this morning, with a chilly breeze, and 41.5F (5.3C).  we've had no measurable rain since the pre-dawn hours of thursday morning.

there is no significant change to our recent weather pattern...  there is an unusually strong jetstream bringing what seems to be a never-ending series of upper-level disturbances from iran across afghanistan and pakistan into northern india.  these individual disturbances are fairly weak, but each of them has enough energy to stir up some thick overcast, and perhaps a few showers and thundershowers (with snow above 2300m/7500ft).  so far, the computer models advertising significant rainfall for us have been dead wrong... but there is still data showing a period or two of moderate rainfall and thunderstorms between now and saturday evening... so be advised that things could turn wet and nasty quite suddenly.

you might be surprised (or not!) to know that NORMAL high temperatures for late february are near 18C/65F... with NORMAL low temps around 11C/52F... so it is indeed way colder than it should be.  unfortunately, our much-longed-for spring warm-up is still not going to arrive in the near future...

FRIDAY: some morning sunshine, then cloudy with a few showers and thundershowers possible.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and cold, with a good chance of some rain and thundershowers.
low: 4C (40F)

SATURDAY: scattered showers in the area... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and cool.
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with only a slight chance of a shower.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with more showers possible by late PM.
high: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain showers.
high: 10C (50F)

Thursday, February 24, 2011

waiting for more showers... (pm.24.feb.11)>

heavy, gray clouds blanket the area early this evening... but we did have a few hours of sunshine this morning which boosted our high temp to 50.5F (10.3C) around 11am.  it was another one of those days when it was balmy in the morning sunshine, but then just a couple of hours later, very chilly under the clouds.

we'll remain under the influence of a continuing series of upper-level disturbances right through the forecast period, which will give us nearly daily chances of showers, along with a good amount of cloudiness.  it is a great relief to get the sunny breaks, but i'm afraid those will be short-lived.  current data indicates that our very best chances of rain will occur from tonight into early saturday... and again from late monday through tuesday.  it still looks like showers will be of the scattered variety... not an all-day, persistent rain situation.

it's cold enough for plenty of snow to continue piling up at elevations above 2300m (7500ft) or so... and even down here in mcleod, temps will be cooling down even further in the coming 48 hours.

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of more showers and thundershowers developing.
low: 4C (40F)

FRIDAY: scattered showers and a few thundershowers likely.  otherwise mostly cloudy and cool.
high: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  still a chance of a few showers around.
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy... just a slight chance of a brief shower.
high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a better chance of more showers by late PM.
high: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain.
high: 10C (50F)

in and out of the rain... (am.24.feb.11)>

skies are partly cloudy early this morning, with a very chilly 40.5F (4.7C) here in upper mcleod ganj.  thanks to a couple of rounds of showers and thundershowers overnight, i have 0.15" (4mm) in the rain gauge... bringing the 24 hour total to 0.27" (7mm).

there's a break in the action this morning... but that doesn't mean the clouds and showers are gone for good.  the satellite photos show last night's wave of energy now moving across the himalayas into western tibet... but the main upper-level storm system is still lingering to our west, and will deliver a few more episodes of thick clouds and showers during the next five days.  temperatures are going to remain very cool for this time of year... but despite that... the snow line should remain above mcleod ganj.  there could be over a foot of new snow up toward triund by the weekend.

looking on the bright side, right now sunday appears to be perhaps the best day of the next several...

THURSDAY: a bit of sunshine this morning, then mostly cloudy with a good chance of more showers and thundershowers.  cool...
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a few periods of rain and thundershowers.
low: 4C (40F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and rather cold, with occasional rain and thundershowers likely.
high: 9C (48F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible.
high: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  only a slight chance of a shower or two.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: becoming mostly cloudy with a better chance of more rain moving in...
high: 10C (50F)

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

inclement for the long-haul... (pm.23.feb.11)>

light rain is falling this evening, with gusty winds and a chilly temp of 45F (7.2C).  thanks to 90% cloudy skies today, our high temp only made it up to 52.2F (11.2C)... and the rain gauge shows about 3mm (0.12") of precipitation thus far.

a broad area of upper-level low pressure remains anchored just to our west, and will continue to be the dominant influence during the next 4-5 days or so.  right now, a fairly potent little bundle of energy is being ejected across northern india... and that's what's responsible for the ominous-looking clouds and the light rainfall today.  get used to this, because we should see several waves of energy moving through, right into early next week, which will keep us from escaping the clouds and precipitation for very long.  most of the computer model info says that the heaviest rain and snow will stay to our north... but i think measurable rain is likely around here as well.

temperatures have little chance of warming up very much as long as this pattern holds... and the higher elevations have little chance of missing out on more heavy snowfall, to add to the record-breaking snowpack already in place...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a few periods of showers and possible thundershowers.
low: 6C (42F)

THURSDAY: clouds, with a few peeks of sun possible.  good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.  still quite cool...
high: 10C (50F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with more rain showers likely...
high: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with some scattered showers still possible.
high: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY: clouds, along with a bit of sun.  chance of scattered showers.
high: 11C (51F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with a better chance of more rain moving in...
high: 11C (51F)

a bit precarious... (am.23.feb.11)>

it's mostly cloudy early this morning, with a temp of 47.5F (8.6C).  no precipitation in the rain gauge yet.

all the data i am looking at this morning indicates that we are in for a long spell of unsettled weather, thanks to a persistent trough of low pressure just to our west over afghanistan and pakistan.  this is not an intense or particularly strong weather system, but it is going to be able to stir up quite a bit of cloudiness, along with some shower activity for the next several days.  most of the rain in our area should be of the light and scattered variety, but as i mentioned last night, some of our computer model data is pointing to a period or two of more moderate rainfall, especially between thursday and saturday.  if you have outdoor plans between now and the weekend, it might be good to have a "plan B" in mind.

temperatures are going to remain below normal for this time of year, but the snow line should stay well above us here in mcleod... most likely around 2100-2300m (6900-7500ft)... with heavier snow likely with increasing elevation.  stay tuned for updates!

WEDNESDAY:  a few glimpses of sun... otherwise mostly cloudy skies.  a few light showers may develop as the day goes on...
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers.
low: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and cool with a good chance of a few showers.  a thundershower is also possible.
high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY: periods of rain likely, along with a thundershower or two.  breezy and cool.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: clouds, perhaps a couple of peeks of sun.  still a good chance of a few showers.
high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and chilly, with a good chance of more showers.
high: 9C (49F)

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

february doldrums... (pm.22.feb.11)>

clouds are quite thick early this evening.  we did get some sunshine through thin, high clouds this morning, which allowed the temp to max out at 55.8F (13.2C) around noon.  current satellite photos show a band of cloudiness right on top of us, but it looks like we could get at least some clearing later this evening, before yet another batch of clouds moves in overnight.

the weather pattern is going to be quite active for the next several days.  there will be a general area of low pressure aloft hanging just to our west, and it will eject several disturbances which will move through northern india between now and sunday.  this scenario is going to keep us in and out of the clouds (mostly in), and also in line for occasional periods of rain showers.  there is a major discrepancy between computer models this evening... one model shows only light precipitation between tomorrow and the weekend, but the other two models are hinting at the potential for some rather significant rainfall.  we should have a better picture of which model(s) are correct by 24 hours from now.  suffice it to say that the weather will be moving in a general "downhill" direction as we move through the rest of the week.

of course heavy snowfall is again in the forecast for the mountains and passes above 2300m (7500ft) or so... starting tomorrow.

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  a sprinkle or two possible.
low: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY: a glimpse or two of sun... otherwise mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers developing.
high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and cooler, with a good chance of a few periods of showers and thundershowers.
high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and cool.  occasional showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: a few showers lingering??  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY:  good chance of more rain showers... still unseasonably cool.
high: 9C (49F)

more clouds already... (am.22.feb.11)>

skies are overcast early this morning... with a mild temp of 49F (9.4C).  apparently we're allowed only one day of sunshine out of every ten!!  satellite photos this morning show lots of mid- and high cloudiness spreading into the area... out ahead of the next in a never-ending series of upper-level disturbances, which is now over northern afghanistan.

once again, there isn't a lot of deep moisture available for this system to tap into, so despite the clouds during the next few days, precipitation will be rather scattered and light.  the best chance of rainfall will occur from tomorrow afternoon through friday, but again... don't expect any all-day rains... just hit and miss showers for the most part.  heavier preciptation will occur further to our north in the mountains (again), where it will be in the form of another round of significant snow.

yesterday's healthy warm-up will be on hold... as temperatures fail to make much of a further gain.  our much cooler-than-normal february weather will continue...

TUESDAY: a mix of high clouds, along with a few periods of sun.
high: 14C (57F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.
low: 10C (50F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few sprinkles or light showers developing.
high: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers... possibly a thundershower.
high: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: still a good chance of some rain showers around.  otherwise mostly cloudy and quite cool.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: a random light shower or two??  otherwise becoming partly cloudy.
high: 11C (52F)

Monday, February 21, 2011

a respite... (pm.21.feb.11)>

we have partly cloudy skies late this afternoon, after a gorgeous sunny morning, and a comfortable high temp of 57.3F (14C).  today's high was exactly 10F warmer than yesterday!  welcome indeed.

we're "in between" weather disturbances at the moment... and it looks like we'll get another 36 hours or so of relatively nice weather before things turn yet again.  another upper-level low pressure area is developing in the vicinity of iran, and is already starting to spread a canopy of high clouds across afghanistan and pakistan.  we'll see an increase in those high clouds tomorrow, and then an increasing chance of rain showers from wednesday through friday.  i don't see any long-lasting rains, just a prolonged period where occasional and scattered showers will be developing in and around the area.

temps will be pleasant again tomorrow, but will gradually cool down once again toward the end of the week, thanks to thicker cloud cover and precipitation...

MONDAY NIGHT: becoming clear to partly cloudy.
low: 7C (45F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and high clouds.  still rather mild...
high: 14C (57F)

WEDNESDAY: becoming mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers developing.
high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and cooler with periods of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY: cloudy and cool with a good chance of more rain in the area...
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds... a bit milder.
high: 12C (53F)

sunshine!... (am.21.feb.11)>

for a change... we have totally clear skies early this morning, with a temp of 43F (6C).  other than a few sprinkles, there has been no measurable rain in the past 24 hours. but it's a different story up the mountain where several inches of snow fell on saturday and sunday, to add to the massive snowpack.

we get to enjoy a nice, quiet weather pattern for the next couple of days.  today will start off with lots of sunshine, but we'll have to watch out for cloud development over the mountains by around noon-time.  our next weather system may spread some high clouds into the area on tuesday, but it won't be until wednesday that rain chances increase again... and that rain potential looks like it could last for a few days.  temperatures will be more pleasant from now through wednesday, but then it will cool off again for the end of the week.

MONDAY: sunshine this morning... becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  milder!
high: 12C (53F)

MONDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY: sun, with increasing high clouds.
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of a shower or two by afternoon.
high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of rain and thundershowers.
high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and cool with a good chance of more rain...
high: 10C (50F)

Sunday, February 20, 2011

a better monday... (pm.20.feb.11)>

it's cloudy early this evening... and i recorded a very chilly high temp of only 48.7 (9.3C), along with no more than 8 or 9 drops of rain the entire day.  there have been reports of snow falling at triund since just before noon... but the precipitation has failed to make much of a show down here at our elevation.

our upper-level disturbance is sitting over western punjab at the moment, and continues to move east as it weakens.  today there have been snow showers north of us over the mountains, and some showers and thundershowers to our south across punjab and haryana... but very little in our neighborhood.  we still have a shot at a little light precipitation between now and midnight, but then this disturbance will be moving out of the picture.  we'll have a break in the action tomorrow into tuesday, and then yet another disturbance will begin to increase rain chances for the latter half of the week.

perhaps the bigger news is that temperatures will remain well below normal for the end of february... although we'll see a small warm-up in the next few days, it will still feel more like january.

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a few sprinkles or light showers possible until about midnight.
low: 4C (40F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy... slight chance of a brief shower by evening.
high: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of a few rain showers.
high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain.
high: 11C (52F)

FRIDAY: a few showers still possible... otherwise cloudy with a few peeks of sun.
high: 10C (50F)

rain potential... (am.20.feb.11)>

we have partly cloudy skies just prior to sunrise this morning, with a temp of 43F (6.1C).  no rainfall recorded overnight.

still waiting for this rather weak weather disturbance to move through and exit the area during the next 24 hours.  satellite photos are showing a large, well-organized area of cloudiness just to our west... extending from northern kashmir through most of central and northern pakistan, down into western gujurat... moving eastward.  that means we are in line for thickening cloud cover this morning, and an increasing chance of some showers and possibly a few thundershowers.  it still looks like precipitation should be on the light side, for the most part, with several inches (up to a foot) of snow in the higher elevations and passes.

monday and tuesday will be the best days of the upcoming forecast period... with some sunshine and milder temps, but then yet another round of rain and mountain snow is scheduled for wednesday and thursday, along with cooling temps again...

[check *HAPPENING NOW* tab (above) for updates throughout the day, should bad weather develop]

SUNDAY: becoming mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers.  a thundershower or two possible as well.  a chilly day...
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with some showers likely... mainly before midnight.
low: 4C (40F)

MONDAY: just a slight chance of a lingering shower, otherwise partly cloudy and not as cold.
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... milder.
high: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers developing by afternoon.
high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of occasional rain showers.  cooler again...
high: 10C (50F)

Saturday, February 19, 2011

showery sunday shaping up... (pm.19.feb.11)>

our skies are partly cloudy early this evening, after a high temp of 50.2F (10.1C).  once again, the clouds and the sun were competing today... it was grey and gloomy during the morning and early afternoon, with a good amount of sun making its appearance after about 130-200pm.  i witnessed one brief shower this morning around 930am, otherwise the day has been dry in mcleod.

the weak weather system over the western himalayas is still centered over northern parts of pakistan.  it will swing through northern india late tonight and tomorrow, bringing us another increase in clouds, along with a better chance of a few showers and thundershowers.  snow has fallen, and will continue to fall in the higher mountains... where there could be up to a foot or so of new accumulation above 2200m (7200ft) by late sunday night.  down where most of us live, i don't see us getting much more than a half inch (1cm or so) of rain out of all this.

quiet and milder weather is on the way for monday and tuesday, but then yet another chance of rain appears by the middle of next week... as this parade of upper-level disturbances continues...

SATURDAY NIGHT:  increasing clouds again... with a good chance of a few showers developing.  a thundershower is possible late.
low: 6C (42F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and quite cold, with a few showers and/or thundershowers likely.
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: any rain should end by midnight or so... then becoming partly cloudy.
low: 5C (41F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun and clouds... milder.
high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: becoming mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 12C (54F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of more showers/thundershowers.
high: 12C (53F)

weekend gloom... (am.19.feb.11)>

waking up to cloudy skies and 43F (6C) this morning.  i'm having a hard time remembering the last time we had nice sunny weather on the weekend.  the satellite pics are showing an upper-level disturbance moving through northern pakistan at the moment... and although it is much weaker than our previous system, it hasn't had trouble gathering the clouds together.

the computer models aren't coming up with much in the way of significant rainfall as this system passes through, but between now and sunday night, be aware of a good chance of a few mostly light showers.  a random thundershower is possible as well.  another round of snow is likely in the mountains, but instead of accumulations in FEET, it will be mostly accumulations in INCHES this time.  the clouds will put a stop to our recent gradual warm-up today and tomorrow... but some milder temps are on the way next week, along with yet another chance of showers by wednesday...

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy skies with perhaps a few glimpses of sun.  good chance of a few sprinkles and light showers developing.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a few showers likely, with a thundershower possible.  otherwise mostly cloudy.
low: 5C (41F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers and possible thundershowers.
high: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  milder.
high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy and warming up a bit more...
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds thicken again, with a good chance of rain showers.
high: 13C (55F)

Friday, February 18, 2011

clouds vs. sun... (pm.18.feb.11)

skies are mostly cloudy late this afternoon, after a day when there was a continuous back and forth between the sun and the clouds.  we did manage to reach a high temp of 51.4F (10.8C) which was the warmest since last sunday!

the first in a new series of disturbances is crossing the area today, but a slightly stronger one is on the way for the weekend.  there isn't much moisture available, and the dynamic energy is not impressive... but we could still eek out a few showers on both saturday and sunday... with several inches of snow likely in the mountains above 2100m (6900ft).  there will be a break in the action on monday into tuesday, but then another disturbance... possibly a little stronger... will move in by wednesday.  temperatures will struggle to moderate just a bit, but will remain well below normal for the latter part of february...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a few sprinkles or very light showers possible overnight.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY: a few peeks of sun between periods of cloudiness.  increasing chance of a few light rain showers.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few showers.  a thundershower possible as well.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: partly sunny skies.  a bit milder.
high: 12C (54F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine.
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 13C (56F)

generally quiet... (am.18.feb.11)>

another chilly morning... 38F (3.3C) up here at the wxgeek office, with mostly clear skies to start the day.  these clear skies may not last long though, as there is already another weak upper-level disturbance moving into pakistan, and it's spreading a batch of high clouds our way.

although we can't look forward to a completely quiet weather pattern during the next several days, there is nothing on the way that will even remotely resemble our last storm system.  this approaching series of weak disturbances may stir up a few showers from saturday afternoon through sunday (along with more snow above 2100m/6900ft)... but amounts of rain and snow should be relatively light.

our temperatures remain well below normal for the latter half of february, despite the slow moderation between now and the first part of next week.

FRIDAY: mostly sunny early, then becoming partly cloudy.
high: 11C (51F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy... not as cold.
low: 4C (40F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few light showers, mainly after noon.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  good chance of occasional showers.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
high: 12C (54F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and a few clouds.  rather pleasant.
high: 13C (55F)

Thursday, February 17, 2011

a little more sun... (pm.17.feb.11)>

we've recently had a light shower in upper mcleod ganj... but not enough rain to measure.  i heard one rumble of thunder early this afternoon as well.  otherwise there was more sun today than we've had in about a week, and the high temperature managed to make it up to 49F (9.4C).

there is some lingering instability left over from our recent storm system... and that's why we still had some clouds and isolated light showers today.  it looks like we won't get into an extremely calm and stable pattern during the next few days... but it is going to be much quieter and more pleasant than it has been during most of the past week.  temperatures will be slowly and gradually moderating, and there will be at least some sun the next couple of days.  i am watching another disturbance which will bring a chance of some showers from saturday evening through sunday, but right now it doesn't look like a big deal at all.  then we'll resume the generally fair and milder weather on monday and tuesday...

by the way... i've been told that the total snowfall at triund since saturday is around 5 feet!  record snowfall is being reported in the higher mountains of himachal, from lahaul and spiti down into kinnaur.

THURSDAY NIGHT: an isolated light shower or two possible this evening, then partly cloudy and chilly overnight.
low: 4C (39F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy skies.  a bit milder.
high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: some morning sun, with increasing clouds by afternoon.  a shower or two possible by evening.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a few showers around.
high: 12C (53F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun and a few periods of clouds.
high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY:  partly to mostly sunny and rather pleasant.
high: 13C (55F)

could it be over?... (am.17.feb.11)

we have partly cloudy skies early this morning and a very chilly 36F (2.2C).  the rain stopped during the late evening... but i recorded another 0.15" (4mm) since last night's post... which gives us a storm total of 3.32" (8.4cm) during the past 5 days.  since the snow : water ratio is generally 10 : 1, that explains why elevations above 2200m (7200ft) received 2-3 feet or more of snow.!

things are looking much more calm and quiet  for the next few days.  the only thing left of our recent storm system is a lingering pool of unseasonably cold air extending from the surface into the upper atmosphere.  if we can manage to get some decent sunshine today, then the surface will warm up a bit... and that could lead to some instability which could trigger an isolated shower or thundershower.  so don't be surprised if there are yet a few raindrops or sleet pellets or random snowflakes around the area later today.  but generally speaking... we are in for some dramatic improvement.

a weak upper-level disturbance will drift through late saturday and sunday, which could stir up another round of light shower action... but it will be only a small nuisance compared to the weather of the past several days.

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine.  not quite as cold.  still a risk of a random shower/thundershower, mainly during the PM.
high: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and chilly.
low: 3C (38F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine... a bit milder.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: some morning sun, then increasing clouds.  chance of a light shower by evening.
high: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers possible.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 12C (53F)

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

enough already!... (pm.16.feb.11)>

the temperature has barely moved today... hanging right around 39-40F (4C)... a cold day here even by early or mid january standards.  i've recorded an additional 0.32" (8mm) of precipitation, most of it rain, but some of it melted sleet and snow from this morning and very early afternoon.  it didn't really accumulate here in mcleod ganj... but light snow/sleet accumulations did occur in parts of dharamkot and naddi village.  a little sunshine is actually trying to make an appearance early this evening...

this storm system has definitely over-stayed its welcome... but by all indications, it is very close to being gone for good.  the satellite photos are showing a few widely scattered rain and snow showers from southwestern kashmir into himachal (heavier rain/snow down toward kinnaur), but there is also a lot more clear sky showing up to our west than i've seen in several days.  we can't rule out a few more random showers this evening and overnight... but the trend will be toward drier weather, along with a higher percentage of sunshine appearing between the clouds.

another disturbance is scheduled to move in over the weekend, but at the moment it looks quite weak, and rather inconsequential compared to what we've just been through.  temps will start to moderate... but only slowly...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: a couple of rain/sleet/snow showers are still possible... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and cold.
low: 2C (36F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and not quite as cold... still a risk of a random shower.
high: 8C (47F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy skies.  a bit milder.
high: 10C (50F)

SATURDAY: clouds with periods of sun... slight chance of more showers late.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with a chance of a few light rain showers.
high: 12C (53F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.
high: 12C (54F)

the last gasp?... (am.16.feb.11)>

**update @ 10:25am** a mix of sleet and snow falling in upper mcleod ganj late this morning.**

cloudy skies... 38.7F (3.7C) early this morning, with snow on the hills just above mcleod ganj.  i'm anxious to hear some reports from dharamkot and naddi, because from my perspective, it looks like there could have been some light accumulations there overnight.  here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center, i recorded an additional 0.19" (5mm) of rainfall since last evening.  that boosts our storm total rainfall to 2.85" (7.2cm).

i know most of us are ready for this to be over, and it looks like it will be soon.  there is still a lingering area of weak low-pressure in the upper atmosphere over northern india, but there is very little energy left in it, and as it shifts eastward today and tonight, most of our precipitation will come to an end.  this storm has been one of the biggest snow-producers for the mountains of himachal in a long time... delivering several feet of snow to elevations above about 2300m (7500ft).  this massive snowpack is our insurance policy for abundant water availability in mcleod ganj during the coming months before monsoon.!!

anyway... there will still be some rain and snow showers in the area today, but they will be lighter and more scattered than during the past 3 days.  we should gradually see a return to a bit of sunshine during the latter half of the week, and temps will start to moderate a few degrees.  unfortunately, the overall weather pattern remains rather active from the middle east into central and south asia... and that means yet another series of disturbances will bring rain and snow chances once again by next week...

WEDNESDAY: still a good chance of a few rain and/or snow showers in the area.  otherwise mostly cloudy, with some sun peeking through at times.
high: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: a couple of rain or snow showers possible.  partly to mostly cloudy and cold.
low: 3C (38F)

THURSDAY: just a slight chance of a shower... otherwise partly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few clouds... slightly warmer.
high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a light shower late in the day.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy.  good chance of more rain showers developing.
high: 12C (53F)

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

bone-chilling... (pm.15.feb.11)>

skies are cloudy, there are some light showers in the area, and the temperature is holding at 40F (4.4C) just before sunset this evening.  today's high only reached 44F (6.7F) up here at the top of mcleod ganj, and i recorded 0.62" (1.6cm) of rain since 9am... that brings the total rainfall since late saturday night up to 2.66" (6.8cm).

according to reports, there was a bit of wet snow that made it down into upper parts of naddi and dharamkot earlier today... but accumulating snows have remained above galu temple for the most part.  i posted a link on the previous post (below) concerning some of the massive snowfall totals that have been reported across the higher elevations of himachal pradesh.  even manali had about 19" (51cm) NOT INCLUDING what may have fallen today.  keylong also had record snowfall of 3ft as of late yesterday.  i'll try to post updated reports/stories as they are available.

this slow-moving storm that has been with us for 4 days now is finally loosening its grip, and will be moving out during the coming 24 hours.  there is still a good chance of more rain and snow tonight into wednesday, but then we'll see a significant decrease in precipitation chances and cloudiness for the end of the week.  our temperatures have been FAR below normal for mid-february... and will moderate a bit by the weekend, but will likely remain a bit cooler than they should be. 

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, breezy and cold... more periods of rain likely, possibly mixed with snow overnight.
low: 3C (37F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds giving way to a little sun...?  still cold, with some occasional rain and/or snow showers in the area.
high: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY: slight chance of a lingering shower... otherwise partly cloudy and not quite as cold.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... slight chance of a shower late in the day.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few scattered light showers possible.
high: 12C (53F)

lots of new snow above... (am.15.feb.11)>

**very heavy and record snowfall in mountains of himachal** http://www.himvani.com/news/2011/02/14/keylong-gets-record-snowfall/10613

waking up to a very chilly 40F (4.4C), a brand new 1.04" (2.6cm) of water in the rain gauge, and a beautiful blanket of new snow on the mountains above town.  until i hear some specific reports, it's hard to tell exactly where the snow line is, but i would estimate it is around 2100m (6900ft)... which would be near galu temple.  our total rainfall since this all began late saturday night is now 2.04" (5.2cm).

so... when will it end?  we may actually be getting fairly close to the backside of this system, but it doesn't look like there is going to be any dramatic, definitive improvement for a while yet.  from the satellite pic, it appears that the center of circulation is somewhere over western kashmir, so we still have a south-southwesterly flow bringing up lots of moisture into most of himachal pradesh.  i think there is a very good chance that we'll see more rain and thunderstorm activity today... with the snow line edging ever closer to dharamkot, naddi, and possibly mcleod ganj.  the latest measurable snow i can remember in mcleod ganj during the past decade was 17 february, 2003... when we had about 2" of slushy sleet and snow.

although we may see increasing amounts of sun and decreasing rain and snow chances toward the end of the week, temperatures are going to remain below normal... and random showers can't be ruled out... even as we approach the weekend.

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and very cool, with more periods of rain and thunder likely.  sleet and snow potential will increase...?
high: 7C (45F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: good chance of some rain and/or snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy and cold.
low: 3C (38F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds, with a few peeks of sun.  still a good chance of a few rain and snow showers in the area.
high: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and still rather cool.  a couple of PM showers are possible.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds... a bit milder.
high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies, with a slight chance of a shower late.
high: 11C (52F)

Monday, February 14, 2011

no relief, yet... (pm.14.feb.11)>

it looks just like the middle of monsoon season outside right now, with near zero visibility in thick fog.  the only difference is that the temp is 47F (8.3C)... so it's about 25F (14C) colder than it is during monsoon.!  it has been a rather eventful day... we've had rain showers, a bit of thunder, some hail, and then a period of sleet, clouds, fog, gusty winds at times... and even a couple of brief glimpses of sunshine thrown into the mix.  my rain gauge shows almost exactly 1.0" (2.5cm) for the total since precipitation began late saturday night... about half of that has occurred in the past 24 hours.

the upper-level low pressure area which is responsible for all of this is now located right along the kashmir/pakistan border.  it will drift slowly to the east and weaken during the coming 48 hours... but there will be enough energy left to keep us "in the soup" so to speak.  i think the potential for significant precipitation will remain with us for another 36-48 hours or so... with some gradual improvement by late wednesday or thursday.  a couple of our computer models are still advertising some heavy rainfall between now and tomorrow evening... and of course that means heavy snow potential remains for the higher elevations.

the sleet this morning is evidence of some very cold air aloft... so although it is several degrees above freezing at the surface, a mix of sleet and snow is not at all out of the question for mcleod ganj during the next day or two.  i think significant accumulations of snow will remain above 2100m (6900ft) or so... but i wouldn't be terribly surprised if i am wrong.  it will have to be carefully watched.

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with areas of fog.  periods of rain likely... possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow.  a thunderstorm is possible as well...
low: 6C (42F)

TUESDAY: more occasional rain likely... possibly mixed with sleet and snow.  good chance of a thunderstorm also.
high: 8C (46F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: good chance of rain showers.. possibly changing to sleet and snow showers.
low: 4C (39F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few rain and/or snow showers.  still cold.
high: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and not as quite as cold, with a slight chance of a shower.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and milder.!
high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few PM showers.
high: 12C (54F)

active wx pattern... (am.14.feb.11)>

** sleet is mixed with the rain @ 920am... evidence of much colder air aloft**

what a lovely monday morning.  we had a nice thundershower around 630am, which delivered a fair amount of small hail... it's so slippery on my terrance, i almost ended up on my arse when i went out to check the rain gauge a few minutes ago.  our total rainfall since all this began late saturday night is now up to 0.91" (2.3cm), and my early morning temp here in upper mcleod ganj is 43F (6.1C).

at the moment, i can't tell where the snow line is... we are so socked in with clouds and fog... but from what i can surmise, it's still fairly high, and not an immediate threat.

this morning's satellite perspective shows the center of circulation of this storm system now moving into northern pakistan.  it will continue to drift eastward during the next 2-3 days... and that means that we can expect more of the same.  in fact, even by the end of the week, our upper-level flow will still be "dirty"... that means we'll be underneath a strong jet stream embedded with all kinds of little wiggles and disturbances.  so... get used to cloudy, wet, occasionally windy and unseasonably cold weather.

there will be some gradual cooling in all levels of the atmosphere, that's why we'll have to carefully watch the potential for the snow line to make it into mcleod ganj.  tomorrow and wednesday look to be the best days for a snow/sleet mixture to occur here.  obviously, very heavy snowfall of 2 feet or more is occurring up above 2500m (8200ft), but that heavy snow will drop closer to 2000m (6500ft) during the next couple of days.

MONDAY: clouds, with a few brief breaks, breezy and cold.  periods of rain (mixed with sleet), along with a thunderstorm or two.
high: 8C (47F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, windy and cold, with occasional rain (mixed with sleet/snow) and possible thunderstorms.
low: 5C (41F)

TUESDAY: more rain likely.. possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow.  otherwise mostly cloudy with gusty winds. (more thunder possible as well).
high: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY: good chance of occasional rain and snow.  cold and breezy.
high: 7C (44F)

THURSDAY: some leftover rain and snow showers around... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, but still a slight chance of a shower or two.  milder!
high: 11C (51F)

Sunday, February 13, 2011

rain continues... (pm.13.feb.11)>

light rain is falling just before sunset, and i am measuring exactly 0.50" (1.3cm) for the day's total thus far.  our temperatures have barely moved... we've been stuck between about 44F and 46F (6.7 to 7.7C) since early morning.  the snow line remains very high... around triund or perhaps a little below.

i don't have much in the way of improvement to report... our upper-level trough of low pressure is sitting almost stationary over afghanistan, and will move only very slowly eastward during the next 48-72 hours.  ahead of this system, plenty of moisture is being drawn northward from the arabian sea, while cold air is gradually seeping southward into the western himalayan region.  that means things aren't going to get much better anytime soon... we'll continue to see periods of light to moderate rain, along with a lowering snow line, which could end up in our neighborhood eventually.  the good news is that the WIND hasn't been much of a factor, and so far, we've escaped the thunder and lightning.  maybe that will keep us from ending up without electricty for long periods, as we saw this time last week.

a return to drier, milder and generally more pleasant weather is possible by the end of the week... but get used to the cool temps and wet weather in the meantime.

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy with occasional rain.  some thunder late?
low: 6C (43F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  periods of rain, along with possible thunderstorms.  cold...
high: 9C (48F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and cold with  rain showers... possibly mixing with sleet or snow.
high: 8C (47F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies... still cold.  good chance of rain and/or snow showers.
high: 8C (46F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few light rain or snow showers possible.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  slight chance of a PM shower.  warming a bit...
high: 11C (52F)

wet and cool... (am.13.feb.11)>

we have light rain, cloudy skies, and a very chilly 44F (6.7C) early this sunday morning.  the wind has also been gusty at times overnight but so far, nothing like it was last weekend.  i have 0.30" (7.6mm) in my rain gauge here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center.  currently, the snow line appears to be somewhere between triund and galu temple... around 2500m (8200ft).

the temperatures really took a dive overnight with the onset of the steady light rain, and i think it will be hard for us to recover too much, unless we are blessed with a bit of sunshine...which is probably unlikely.  the satellite view this morning shows the center of our storm system right over the middle of afghanistan... but it is moving very very slowly.  there are going to be multiple waves of energy moving eastward across our area during the next few days... and that's going to keep us in a very unstable/unsettled weather pattern right into the middle of the week.  there is plenty of moisture available from the arabian sea, and as that gets drawn into the mix, expect periods of rain to continue... along with the potential for a thunderstorm or two.

we'll have to carefully watch the rain/snow line as it creeps gradually down the mountain.  but at this point, i expect accumulating snow to remain well above 2000m (6500ft) until at least monday night or tuesday morning.

[check the *HAPPENING NOW* tab (top of page) for updates...]

SUNDAY: cloudy with gusty winds at times.  periods of rain likely, along with a possible thunderstorm.
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy and windy with occasional rain and thunderstorms.
low: 5C (41F)

MONDAY: cloudy, windy and cold.  periods of rain and possible thunderstorms.  rain could mix with sleet and/or snow.
high: 9C (48F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with more rain likely... good chance of some sleet/snow, especially just above mcleod ganj.
high: 8C (47F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with rain and/or snow showers...especially in the morning.
high: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY: slight chance of a couple of left-over showers... then becoming partly cloudy.  not as cool.
high: 11C (51F)

Saturday, February 12, 2011

very very grey... (pm.12.feb.11)>

it's been a 100% cloudy day, but despite the overcast, there have only been a few random sprinkles thus far.  the high temp barely reached 55F (12.7C).  i just noticed that an avalanche warning has been issued for the upper mountains of himachal (lahaul and spiti) as the snow begins to pile up there.

our storm system is now centered over the southwest corner of afghanistan.. and out ahead of it there is a massive area of clouds, rain, snow and even a few thunderstorms.  this is what is heading our way for the first half of the coming week.  the shower and thunderstorm action could begin anytime here in mcleod ganj... but the window of opportunity for the heaviest rain appears to be from sunday into mid-day tuesday.  the wind will pick up as well... although it may not be quite as fierce as it was last weekend.

temperatures should remain too warm for snow here in mcleod until perhaps monday night or tuesday, when we could see some sleet and snow mixed in with the rain.  it will be a different story in the higher elevations, with at least a foot of snow expected above 2300m (7500ft) before all is said and done.

depending on power/internet connections... i will try to post frequent updates on the *HAPPENING NOW* page (tab above)...

SATURDAY NIGHT: cloudy with winds increasing.  good chance of a few showers and thundershowers moving in.
low: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY: cloudy and windy with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy and windy with occasional rain and thunderstorms.
low: 9C (48F)

MONDAY: clouds, gusty winds... periods of rain and thunder.  some sleet/snow mixed in by evening??
high: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of more rain... possibly mixed with sleet and snow.  windy and colder...
high: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and snow showers possible.  quite cool.
high: 9C (49F)

THURSDAY: slight chance of a brief rain/snow shower or two... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
high: 11C (51F)

a not-so-nice weekend... (am.12.feb.11)>

we have a mild 50F (10C) early this morning... under mostly cloudy skies.  the satellite photos are showing a huge area of mid- and high-level clouds across an extensive area from afghanistan to himachal pradesh and kashmir.  most of the rain and snow associated with this system is still hanging well to our west, but there have been some light rain and snow showers popping up already, further up in the dhauladars.

the overall scenario has changed very little since last night... we are in for a long period of unsettled weather, which will last all the way into the middle of next week.  clouds will continue to thicken, we'll have occasionally gusty winds, shower and thundershower chances will increase, and temperatures will eventually drop off significantly.  the most likely time for significant rainfall is on sunday through tuesday.  heavy snow is a definite bet for areas above 2500m (8200ft), but the snow line will drop down to around 2000m (6500ft) by late monday and tuesday.

check this space for updates!!

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy... perhaps a couple of peeks of sun.  gusty winds at times, with increasing chance of a shower or thundershower, especially during the afternoon.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and rather windy, with a good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
low: 11C (51F)

SUNDAY: cloudy and windy with periods of rain and possible thunderstorms.
high: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: cloudy, windy and cooler, with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.
high: 10C (50F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and chilly...  still some gusty winds, along with a good chance of rain, possibly mixed with sleet or snow.
high: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY: a few rain and/or snow showers around... mostly cloudy and very cool...
high: 9C (49F)

Friday, February 11, 2011

another weekend, another storm... (pm.11.feb.11)>

what a nice morning!!  and what a gloomy afternoon.  clouds have rolled in thick and heavy during the past few hours, and although i haven't seen any raindrops yet, it looks like there may be some light precipitation occurring further up the mountain.  our high temperature of 57F (13.9C) occurred right around noon.

the upper-level disturbance responsible for our approaching wet weather is now situated over southern iran.  it will strengthen as it slowly makes its way eastward during the coming 3-4 days.  this is a very slow-mover, which will give it time to tap into some moisture from the arabian sea, increasing our rain chances bit-by-bit and day-by-day, right into  early next week.  the bull's-eye is on sunday and monday for the most significant rainfall, along with a good chance of some thundershowers and gusty winds.  i still think the snow is going to stay above mcleod ganj... most likely even higher... above 2500m (8200ft) or so... but, by late monday or tuesday, we could see the snow line drop down closer to 2000m (6500ft). 

it's a good idea to stay on top of the weather situation if you have any outdoor activities scheduled, or if you plan to be traveling during the next several days...

FRIDAY NIGHT: off and on periods of cloudiness... chance of a light shower or two.
low: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with a few peeks of sun.  becoming breezy, with a good chance of a few showers or thundershowers developing.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and windy with a good chance of a thundershower or two.
low: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY: cloudy and windy with periods of rain and thundershowers likely.
high: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: cloudy, windy and cooler, with occasional rain and thunderstorms.
high: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: still cloudy, breezy and cool, with periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet.
high: 9C (48F)

WEDNESDAY: rain and/or snow showers ending.  then partly cloudy skies.
high: 9C (49F)

slow changes... (am.11.feb.11)>

it's 47F (8C) just before sunrise this morning, with partly cloudy skies.  i was surprised to wake up and see so few clouds... and the satellite pic shows the majority of the thick cloud cover associated with this next storm system still holding off to our west.  this is indeed a slow-moving and slow-developing storm... but it appears that once it moves in, it will also be very slow to leave.  all of the available computer model data indicates we are in for a period of unsettled, cloudy, breezy and showery weather which could last into the middle of next week.

today will still be decent... clouds will continue to thicken up, and there may be some random rain showers.  we'll see more clouds, more wind and a better chance of showers on saturday... but sunday and monday continue to be the days with the BEST chance of crummy weather... i.e., clouds, wind, thundershowers.  cold air should remain well above mcleod ganj, so once again, snow (heavy at times) will be confined to elevations above 2500m (8200ft).  a reminder... sunday through tues-wed will not be a good time to be in the higher mountains.

temperatures will remain fairly mild, but will drop off during the early part of next week...

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a chance of a random sprinkle or light shower in the PM.
high: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy.  a brief shower possible.
low: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: clouds, with a few peeks of sunshine.  breezy.  good chance of a couple of light rain showers.
high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and windy with some showers, along with possible thunderstorms.
high: 12C (54F)

MONDAY: cloudy and windy with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 11C (52F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy. windy and quite cool, with showers and thundershowers in the area.
high: 11C (51F)

Thursday, February 10, 2011

clouds thicken... (pm.10.feb.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy this evening... after a day of mixed sun and clouds, and a high temp of 57.7F (14.3C).

our next storm system is still organizing along a line from central asia down to the persian gulf, and promises to bring us a prolonged period of unsettled weather as we head into the weekend and early next week.  already we're seeing the increase in cloud cover... and tomorrow the chance of light rain showers will enter the forecast.  rain chances will then increase every day through monday... along with the potential for strong and gusty winds and some thunder.  it still looks like our best chances of significant rainfall will be on sunday and monday... and that means heavy snow in the mountains above.  temperatures will remain fairly mild until late saturday or sunday, when the increasingly wet weather and lack of sunshine will make it feel more chilly.

if you have travel plans, be sure to keep track of developing weather conditions...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with an isolated shower possible.
low: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: clouds, with a few peeks of sun.  chance of a few light showers.
high: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with some gusty winds developing.  better chance of occasional showers and thundershowers.
high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: cloudy, windy and cooler with some showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: cloudy skies.  still windy, with more rain and possible thunderstorms.
high: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and cool with a chance of a few rain showers.
high: 11C (51F)

more clouds than sun... (am.10.feb.11)>

we have quite a lot of high clouds obscuring the sky early this morning... with a temp of 47F (8C).  satellite photos show patches of mid and high cloudiness extending from himachal and kashmir, westward into afghanistan and iran. with our upper-level flow coming from the west, that means we'll be dealing with more clouds than sun for the remainder of the week.

our weather scenario is looking remarkably similar to what we had at this time last week... a slow-moving, slow-developing storm system to our west.  the only difference is that this approaching system doesn't look as potent as the last one.  still, we're in line for clouds, increasing rain chances, and more of those gusty winds.  currently, sunday and monday look to be the wettest and windiest days... with heavy snowfall likely again up above 2500m (8200ft).  although i'm sure most of us would prefer sunshine and warmer temperatures, it is great that we are getting the rain and snow this time of year, to ensure a decent water supply during the coming dry pre-monsoon months...

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  a few sprinkles or very light showers this afternoon?  temps still rather mild.
high: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a random shower.
low: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: clouds, with just a few peeks of sun.  chance of one or two light rain showers.
high: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with a better chance of showers and possible thundershowers.  winds becoming strong and gusty.
high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: cloudy, windy and cooler, with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: cloudy with gusty winds... scattered showers and thunderstorms.
high: 11C (51F)

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

unsettled wx ahead... (pm.9.feb.11)>

high clouds have thickened up a bit late this afternoon... but the majority of the day was sunny, which boosted our high temp to 56.5F (13.6C).  another one of those days when it was very comfortable in the direct sunlight, but chilly in the shade.

our brief period of totally settled, calm and quiet weather is coming to an end... again.  the blanket of high clouds this evening is the first sign of our next storm system which will slowly and gradually begin to affect us over the course of the next several days.  expect the sun to cloud ratio to tip in favor of clouds during the next 48 hours... along with an increasing chance of some sprinkles, then showers, then thundershowers between late tomorrow and sunday.  the probability of gusty winds will re-enter the forecast as well as we approach the weekend, and  heavy snow is on the way for the higher elevations again (2500m and above).  at this point, i still don't think we are in for the kind of nastiness we had with the last storm system... but it is something to keep an eye on, nonetheless...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies.
low: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of a sprinkle or light shower...mainly in the PM.
high: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY: clouds, with a few peeks of sun.  chance of a few light rain showers.
high: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  becoming windy, with a better chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: cloudy, windy and cooler with a few periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  still a chance of a few showers around.
high: 11C (51F)

a day or two of calm... (am.9.feb.11)>

we have clear skies and a not-too-cool 44F (6.5C) early this morning... and the only real adjustment i'm making to the forecast is to nudge the temps UP a couple of degrees.  the satellite photos this morning are showing a few patches of high clouds upstream, which will make their way into northern india today, otherwise expect more sunshine.

our weather pattern in the mid- to long term is not so quiet, however.  there is yet another storm system organizing over iran... and it will be bringing us a gradual turn to inclement weather (again) by the end of the week.  at this point, it doesn't look as intense as our most recent storm, but clouds and rain chances will be on the increase... and we could see another bout of windy weather as well.  check all the details below...

WEDNESDAY: sunshine this morning, with some high clouds moving in during the PM.  nice and mild...
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 8C (46F)

THURSDAY: increasing clouds with an isolated sprinkle or two possible by late in the day.
high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and breezy, with a chance of a few light rain showers.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and windy with a good chance of a few rain showers.  thundershowers possible as well.
high: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: cloudy, windy and cooler.  good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 11C (51F)

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

smooth sailing... (pm.8.feb.11)>

other than a couple of puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains, skies are mostly clear this evening.  sunshine today boosted our temp to a high of 52F (11C)... although unless you were in direct sunlight, it was quite chilly.

it looks we are in for at least a couple of days of quiet weather... with a good amount of sun, and some modest warming.  there is another storm system on the horizon however, which will bring an increase in clouds, wind and rain chances as we approach the end of the week.  it seems the timing of stormy weather has been very bad during the last several weeks... always appearing on the weekends.  this next system doesn't look as vicious as the previous one, but stay tuned for updates as it comes together...

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear and cool.
low: 4C (40F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 12C (53F)

THURSDAY: increasing clouds with a slight chance of a late PM sprinkle or two.
high: 13C (55F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a few random, light showers possible.
high: 13C (55F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and breezy, with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and windy, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 12C (53F)

sunshine returns!... (am.8.feb.11)>

waking this moring to some cold temps, but a nice clear sky which is going to be full of sun in just a few minutes.  it's 38F (3C) on tushita road in upper mcleod ganj this morning... the coldest temp i've recorded in about 3 weeks.  satellite pics are showing that our menacing storm has now plowed eastward through the mountains and mostly dissipated, leaving a few feet of snow, and a couple of inches of rain in its wake... along with a lot of frazzled nerves, due to that non-stop wind...

things are looking up for us in the near term.  we'll see a good bit of sun the next couple of days, along with a gradual warming trend this week.  BUT, the flow in the upper atmosphere continues to be strong, and embedded with disturbances... that means we could see more periods of clouds, gusty winds, and scattered showers, especially toward the end of the week.  and although it will be a bit milder, i don't think we're going to reach the warm-ish range that we saw before the storm arrived last week...

by the way... i added a tab above "SAT VIEW OF MONDAY'S STORM"... check it out.

TUESDAY: lots of sun this morning, perhaps a few clouds during the afternoon.  cool...
high: 9C (49F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear and still on the cold side.
low: 4C (39F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny skies.  a little milder.
high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the PM.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and windy... with a chance of a shower or two.
high: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY:mostly cloudy and windy with a good chance of occasional rain showers.
high: 12C (53F)

Monday, February 7, 2011

storm winding down... (pm.7.feb.11)>

what a climax to our past 3-4 days of dealing with this storm system.!  i have to say that i've never seen such dark skies during the afternoon here in mcleod ganj, or anywhere else for that matter.  the thunderstorm complex that rolled through here between 2 and 5 pm was intense, indeed.  late this evening it is 43F (6C), and my rain gauge shows 1.47" (3.7cm), most of which fell this afternoon.  one of our weathergeek observers below OM Hotel reported more than 2" (5cm) of rain.  snowfall has been very heavy up the mountain... well over 1 meter (3ft+) in many areas from the dhaladaurs into lahaul and spiti, kashmir and ladakh.

the latest satellite pic clearly shows the backside of this storm system moving over us right at this moment.  i think there could still be some random light rain and/or snow showers overnight into early tomorrow morning, but for the most part, this event is over.  the winds have died down, and skies will be clearing.  temperatures will remain on the cool side tomorrow, but then we should gradual move back into a more comfortable zone by the end of the week.  BUT... there will be another round of precipitation coming as well...

MONDAY NIGHT: still a few rain and/or snow showers around.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and colder.
low: 3C (37F)

TUESDAY: a random snow shower in the early morning...?  then partly cloudy and cool.
high: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.  a bit milder.
high: 11C (52F)

THURDAY: partly cloudy with a slight chance of an afternoon shower.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a random shower or two possible.
high: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with scattered light rain showers.
high: 12C (54F)

infrastructural meltdown... (am.7.feb.11)>

*check HAPPENING NOW tab above for update*

i apologize for the delay in updating the weather situation... but i lost both my internet connection and my back-up during the wee hours of the morning, and haven't been able to get online. not to mention the lack of power. i know most of us are in the same boat.

these winds have certainly been ferocious, but we still have very little rain to show for all the noise and drama.  thus far, the vast majority of the precipitation associated with this system has remained to our north and west, in the higher mountains.  very heavy snow continues to fall from northern pakistan though much of kashmir and ladakh, and into the himachal ranges as well.  the air remains quite warm below 2500m (8200ft), so there's still not much new snow below triund.

the central circulation of this storm will move across northern india this afternoon and tonight.  right now, there is a large area of rain and thunderstorms developing just to our west, and moving slowly toward the east.  those darn computer models are STILL showing heavy rain for us during the next 18 hours or so... so this may be our last chance to actually get some decent precipitation out of this.  we are not out of the woods just yet...

i will try to post updates... but right now i'm limited by my internet access...  thanks to those of you providing reports!

MONDAY: cloudy and windy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. some hail/sleet possible.  temps steady or gradually falling.
high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY NIGHT: rain and some thunder likely... possibly mixing with sleet or snow.  still windy...
low: 3C (37F)

TUESDAY: a few rain/snow showers possible in the morning... otherwise becoming partly cloudy.  winds diminishing.
high: 8C (47F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and not as cool.
high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and milder.
high: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: increasing clouds with a chance of a few PM rain showers.
high: 13C (55F)

Sunday, February 6, 2011

blasting winds... (pm.6.feb.11)>

late this evening the winds are very strong and gusty, but there have still been only a few light and scattered rain showers around mcleod ganj.  there are reports of very heavy snowfall in the mountains above 2500m (8200ft) all across himachal pradesh and jammu & kashmir, but so far... precipitation has been light at the lower elevations.

the center of this storm system will be moving from pakistan through northern india during the next 24 to 36 hours... bringing with it more strong winds, falling temperatures and a mixture of rain, sleet and snow.  computer models are still forecasting heavy rain and snow for our area between now and tuesday morning... but i think we are all waiting to see the reality of that! 

by tuesday afternoon, this system should be moving to our east, and that means a trend toward quieter and midler weather for the middle and latter parts of the week...

SUNDAY NIGHT: very windy... cloudy, with a good chance of a few periods of rain.
low: 8C (48F)

MONDAY: rain likely, possibly mixing with sleet and snow.  otherwise, clouds and windy with falling temps.
high: 10C (50F)

MONDAY NIGHT: a mix of rain, sleet and snow likely.
low: 2C (36F)

TUESDAY: some rain and snow showers in the morning, then partly cloudy by late afternoon.  still chilly.
high: 8C (47F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 9C (49F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and milder.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY: increasing clouds... but pleasantly mild.
high: 14C (57F)

increasingly nasty... (am.6.feb.11)>

*during this winter storm, click on the HAPPENING NOW tab above, to get the latest updates*

it's cloudy, windy, raining lightly, and 51F (10.5F) in upper mcleod ganj before sunrise this morning.  there were off and on light showers overnight, but the main event was the wind, which was strong and gusty pretty much all night.

it looks like we are right on the verge of getting into the main event of this storm system which has been gradually developing over the last 48 hours or so.  the three major factors coming into place are 1) a vigorous upper-level disturbance which will continue to intensify and move into northern india, and 2) lots of moisture from the arabian sea which is being transported northeastward, right into the western himalayas.  lastly 3) colder air beginning to spill southward from central asia.  this is the recipe for a potent late-winter storm in our part of the world.

expect the scattered light rain showers to become heavier and more persistent during the next 12-24 hours, as temperatures begin to fall.  moderate to heavy rain is likely on monday into tuesday... with very heavy snowfall in the mountains... mainly above 2200m (7200ft).  as i mentioned yesterday, 1-2m (3-6ft) of snow is a good bet for the highest elevations of himachal pradesh.  here in mcleod ganj, the rain may mix with and eventually change over to sleet and snow on monday or tuesday, but our accumulations (as usual) are highly dependent upon how much cold air makes it down to our elevation.  since we all live at different elevations around the area, your reports are valuable!  let me know what's happening where you are, by leaving a comment here, or on facebook.

things should calm down and warm up a bit by the middle of next week.

SUNDAY: cloudy and turning colder with periods of light rain.  some thunder possible as well.
high: 11C (51F) in the early AM, with falling temps.

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy and cold with periods of rain and possible thunderstorms.
low: 4C (40F)

MONDAY: rain likely... possibly becoming mixed with sleet and snow.  thunder also possible.
high: 6C (43F)

TUESDAY: an icy mix of rain, sleet and snow... perhaps changing to ALL snow.
high: 6C (43F)

WEDNESDAY: one or two rain/snow showers in the AM?  then becoming partly cloudy, milder.
high: 9C (49F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and warming up.
high: 12C (53F)