Thursday, May 19, 2011

a sunny start... (am.19.may.11)>

we have 100% clear skies before sunrise, and our early morning low temp has been 72.3F (22.4C).  the satellite view currently shows calm and quiet weather across all of northern india, although there is a large cluster of thundershowers engulfing about the western half of nepal.

expect another very warm day today, before things start to cool down a bit as we head into the weekend.  our giant bubble of high pressure aloft has been weakening gradually since tuesday, and will further break down between now and sunday.  colder air is filtering in in the upper atmosphere, and a couple of fairly strong upper-level disturbances are forecast to drop southeastward out of central asia.  all of this means that we will see better and better chances of scattered thunderstorms over the next few days... and i wouldn't be surprised to see a period of fierce storminess sometime between friday afternoon and sunday.  the limiting factor is the lack of deep, rich low-level moisture... which should keep rainfall amounts relatively light (perhaps less than a half inch).

the hottest weather of the year continues just down the hill... with high temps still reaching 40C (104F) and above, across virtually all of northern india below 1000m/3300ft.  however, if the showers and storms materialize this weekend, there will be significant relief for at least a couple of days...

THURSDAY: lots of morning sunshine... but becoming partly cloudy in the PM, with a chance of a thundershower or two.  very warm.
high: 30C (86F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: thunderstorms possible before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies, with a period of showers and thunderstorms possible.  not quite as warm.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: still a good chance of a period or two of showers and storms.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with pleasant temps.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  just a slight chance of a shower.
high: 28C (82F)