Thursday, May 5, 2011

thundershower risk rising... (pm.5.may.11)>

we're in the midst of a very nice evening, with partly cloudy skies and temps slowly dropping from an afternoon high of 83.3F (28.5C).  there was some thunder rumbling in the mountains between about 2 and 5pm, but it seems to have ended for the time being.

a notable upper-level disturbance is spinning through eastern uzbekistan at the moment, and will slide southeastward and weaken during the next 48 hours or so.  currently, satellite photos show some scattered thunderstorm action across much of pakistan, and extending as far eastward as central punjab (not to mention the convection happening over the mountain peaks in north india).  with warm and increasingly unstable air in place, there is a pretty good chance that we could see showers and thunderstorms either move into or develop across the area overnight into friday.  i still think the best chance of rain for us will come during the 36 hours between tonight and saturday morning, with temps cooling off just a bit for the first part of the weekend.

this weather system will fall apart and then move east of us by late saturday and sunday... and that means lower thundershower chances, along with rebounding temps for the first part of next week.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with an increasing chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and not quite as warm, with a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant... but still a risk of a lingering thundershower.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and warming up again.
high: 27C (81F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny skies... warm.
high: 28C (83F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy and very warm, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)