the latest...

**It's been a while since we've had totally clear skies at sunrise, but that's the story early on this Friday morning. The temp is near 64ºF/18ºC.

Friday, September 30, 2011

september's rebellion... (pm.30.sep.11)>

today's high temp: 68.2F (20.1C) around 10:30am
today's low temp: 59.9F (15.5C) around 3:30pm
rainfall this afternoon: 0.63" (1.6cm) between 2:00 and 4:15pm
**RAINFALL SINCE SUNDAY: 4.42" (11.2cm)**

we're enjoying some evening sunshine for the second day in a row, but we also had to endure the third round of afternoon thundershowers in the past four days.  current satellite photos show that most of that action is fizzling out with the setting sun, but it appears that there were scattered showers with thunder and even a bit of hail from parts of kashmir through himachal and uttarakhand, as has been the case every afternoon this week.

here on the last day of the month, i can honestly say that this has been about the most rebellious and disobedient latter half of september that i can ever remember!  although we had four dry days in a row late last week, we've never been able to completely rid ourselves of the fog and cloudiness during the mid-day and PM hours, and humidity remains higher than it normally is by this time of year, generally 60-85% range.

although officially, technically and practically, the monsoon is long gone, the lingering moisture here in the foothills and mountains is now being capitalized on by an upper-level pattern that is looking more and more like autumn.  we just haven't been able to catch a break this year... and there are no signs of a significant lasting change as we get into the first week of october.

FRIDAY NIGHT: a lingering thundershower possible during the evening, otherwise becoming mostly clear.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies.  another round of afternoon thundershowers possible.
high: 21C (70F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a risk of a thundershower in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: more of the same mix of clouds and sun.  chance of a PM shower remains.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy.  chance of an afternoon shower.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies with an isolated afternoon shower possible.
high: 21C (70F)

Thursday, September 29, 2011

our own show... (pm.29.sep.11)>

the day is ending as it began, with mostly sunny skies.  it is nice to have some evening sunshine, which has been a pretty rare event this month.  the middle of the day was much different than its start and finish, with a thundershower that lasted about an hour and a half, between roughly 1:00 and 2:30pm.  it wasn't as intense as what we experienced on tuesday afternoon, but still, i recorded a hefty 0.81" (2cm) of rain.  our high temperature today reached 69.6F (20.9C) just before the noon hour.

the available computer model guidance remains pretty much worthless with regard to things happening here along and just southwest of the dhauladar mountain range.  we always have our own show going on up here, but the last week has been particularly bizarre.  although rainfall has ceased over almost all of the northwest half of india, we here along some of the front ranges of the himalayas are the exception to the rule.  the lingering moisture continues to interact with competing airmasses and early autumn sunshine to produce areas of thick clouds, some fog, and random thundershowers along the mountains.

it has been nice to get some good periods of drier, sunnier weather from time to time, but i'm afraid the overall conditions are going to remain the same for the next several days at least, which means we all have to continue to be prepared to run for cover in the case of sudden showers... and put up with a few bouts of afternoon gloom.  temperatures, for the most part, will remain pleasantly mild...

THURSDAY NIGHT: random thundershowers still in the vicinity... otherwise partly cloudy skies.
low: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny til late morning, then partly to mostly cloudy.  an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  risk of a PM shower.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: generally sunny in the morning... partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower PM.
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: partly sunny with an isolated PM shower possible
high: 21C (70F)

TUESDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.
high: 21C (70F)

still a bit fickle... (am.29.sep.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
this morning's low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
24 hour rainfall: trace

we have mostly clear skies at sunrise this morning, with a humidity reading of 81%.  satellite pics show generally clear skies and smooth sailing from afghanistan and pakistan, across northern india, into nepal and most of tibet.

yesterday did turn out to be less dramatic than tuesday... and there was definitely more sunshine and an improvement in the fog situation.  we're still not nearly to the crisp, bright blue skies that we're waiting for as autumn progresses, but yesterday was a small step in the right direction.

the flow in the upper atmosphere is from the northwest, and will remain so right through the weekend into early next week.  at the surface, we're still getting a weak flow from the southeast, keeping that trapped low-level moisture from getting completely swept out of here.  this spells a continuing trend of generally sunny conditions to start the day, followed by an increase in clouds (and a bit of fog) from noon through the early evening hours.  isolated thundershowers have occurred every single day of the past week in the mountains from southern kashmir through himachal to uttarakhand... and i see no reason for that to change... so continue to be prepared for at least a slight chance of a sudden shower in the PM hours.

THURSDAY: mostly sunny this morning.  partly cloudy by noon, with a risk of a PM shower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: an isolated evening shower possible... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 16C (61F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of morning sun, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  slight chance of a brief shower.
low: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: morning sun giving way to periods of afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny AM, partly cloudy PM.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few clouds.  pleasant temps.
high: 22C (71F)

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

unstuck?... (am.28.sep.11)>

this morning's low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
outdoor humidity: 79%
24 hour rainfall: 2.68" (6.8cm)

skies are mostly clear at sunrise, so it looks like we'll be getting some nice sunshine again to start the day.  how long it will last is another question.  our airmass remains in the process of changing character, from tropical to continental, and made another big step yesterday afternoon, after that major thunderstorm moved out.  it will be interesting to see whether we still have the factors in place to produce the clouds, fog and thundershower activity during the afternoons from today forward.  all of the computer models are only slightly better than worthless in tracking the micro-scale features that are in process along the front ranges of the mountains.

let's keep the potential for the fog and perhaps a thundershower in the forecast for this afternoon, see what develops, and then let that guide us in determining the trend as we head into the weekend.

temperatures have obviously cooled off a notch, and will continue to do so, especially from evenings through early mornings...

WEDNESDAY: plenty of sunshine this morning.  but becoming mostly cloudy with some patchy fog by mid-day.  still a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  an early evening shower possible, followed by rapidly clearing skies.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  nice temps.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few periods of clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 23C (73F)

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

what a day... (pm.27.sep.11)>

today's high temp: 70.7F (21.5C)... around 11:30am
today's low temp: 54.0F (12.2C)... around 3:00pm, during the rain/hail
rainfall this afternoon: 2.68" (6.8cm)... between 1:30 and 4:15pm

there have been a handful of times over the years that i have been completely shocked and stunned... astonished.   and today was one of those times.  the intensity of this afternoon's thunderstorm took me completely by surprise.  there have been random, relatively tame showers and thundershowers scattered throughout the mountains from kashmir through himachal and further southeast into uttarakhand during the afternoons for the last few days, but the storm that nailed us this afternoon was off the charts compared to anything i thought we might experience.

as i pour over the available data this evening, all i can see is that there must have been a disturbance in the upper atmosphere that was underestimated by all of the computer models, that was able to take advantage of all this surface moisture sitting around here.  with the help of a few hours of strong sunshine this morning, the moisture was lifted and condensed, as the upper-level disturbance passed overhead.  bingo.  a 2+ hour period of heavy rain and occasional hail.  the hail itself is an indication that there was enough turbulence in the atmosphere to force water droplets up above the freezing level multiple times before allowing them to fall to the ground.  there is also a light coating of snow on the highest peaks of the dhauladars visible this evening.

tonight at sunset, we have a clearer sky than we've seen in a while.  cooler, drier and more stable air has been brought down to the surface in the wake of the storm... which is a welcome change.  let's see if the clouds and fog can manage to return tomorrow, or if today's events have advanced us along...

TUESDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear.  coolish temps.
low: 14C (57F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny in the morning.  becoming partly cloudy by noon, with a risk of an afternoon shower.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy PM.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and nice.
high: 23C (73F)

getting blasted...

4:10pm... 2.64" (6.7cm) in the rain gauge.  there is some partial clearing, although thunder and light rain remain in the area.


3:36pm... those breaks in the clouds i was seeing earlier have disappeared, and satellite pics show a narrow area of nearly stationary thundershowers stretching all along the dhauladar range.  this may continue for a while.  temp now 58.6F (14.8C).  rainfall total to come...


3:09pm... haven't ventured out to check my rain gauge yet, since it is still raining moderately... but it looks to me like there may be close to 2" in there!  will report a total when it finally winds down.


2:55pm... marble-sized hail and rain, but some breaks in the clouds, blue sky appearing to the north.


2:42pm... now heavy rain and consistent small hail.  temperature has dropped to 57F (13.9C)... coolest temperature of the season.  wind seems to have calmed a bit for the moment.


2:30pm... a potent thundershower has been gaining strength during the past half hour or so.  in addition to moderate rainfall and thunder and lightning, i am getting some small hail stones at my place just below tushita and the mountaineering center.  it is also very windy at the moment.  temperatures have fallen rapidly, to 60F (15.5C).

firmly stuck... (am.27.sep.11)>

the sun is shining early this morning... a consistent feature of the hour or two or three right after sunrise on every morning of the past week.  humidity is a bit higher than the past few days, at 80%, and we've had an overnight low temp of 60.6F (15.9C).  there has been 0.09" (2mm) of rain during the past 24 hours, almost all of that came yesterday afternoon just before 2:00pm.

well, this is our first full day being officially free of monsoon 2011, but i don't think it's going to make much difference.  i will be very surprised if we see any dramatic improvement over our recent scenario, which has been characterized by morning sunshine giving way to clouds by mid-day, and then a period of clouds and thick fog during the late afternoon and evening hours... with even a random thundershower or two roaming the landscape.

there are certain times of the year when "micro-climates" rule all along the himalayan chains... and the dhauladars are infamous for that, since they mark the sharp boundary between the extremes of the indian plains to the south-southwest and the high mountain environments further north and east.  these days we are simply victims of the effects of the lingering moisture that remains trapped all along the foothills and front ranges of the himalayas.  it only takes a couple of hours of morning sun to start the condensation process... leading to the clouds, fog and isolated showers.  it is looking more and more like we need another strong upper-level disturbance from central asia to sweep through here and clean things out... but there appears to be nothing like that on the horizon yet.

TUESDAY: partly sunny this morning, mostly cloudy by noon, with a brief, random thundershower possible during the PM.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: clouds, fog and a lingering shower this evening, then clearning after sunset.
low: 16C (61F)

WEDNESDAY: a good amount of morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: morning sunshine, with some afternoon clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

Monday, September 26, 2011

lackluster "withdrawal"... (pm.26.sep.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy again this evening... after another day that followed pretty close to the pattern we've been seeing for the past week.  nice healthy sunshine until about 11am boosted our high temp to 71.4F (21.9C), and a thundershower between about 1:40 and 2:00pm was responsible for 0.09" (2mm) of rainfall.

but... today was the day that the india meteorological department has chosen to withdraw monsoon 2011 from himachal pradesh, along with other large parts of northern india.  (official statement here)  i have to say... this has been a strange withdrawal/retreat period.  there is no doubt that the monsoon rains shut off quite abruptly on the 16th of the month... since that date, we've only received 0.78" (2cm) of rain.  but this daily thick cloudiness and fog from the mid-day hours into the evening is still something that shows no signs of relenting.  the only times i've been away from mcleod during the latter half of september during the last 10 years were in 2007 and 2008... and i really don't recall anything quite like this.  but maybe that's why i've always been addicted to weather... there are no fail-safe formulas, and no hard and fast rules.  the varieties of scenarios are infinite.!!

anyway, despite the official declaration from on high, i don't really think we're going to see a sudden turn to wall-to-wall sunshine and zero fog.  expect the status quo until further notice...

MONDAY NIGHT: still a chance of a shower this evening, then clearing skies after sunset.
low: 17C (62F)

TUESDAY: a good amount of morning sun, then increasing clouds and fog.  a brief PM shower possible.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: morning sun... with partly cloudy skies in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  pleasant temps.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: still a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

MONSOON WITHDRAWAL 2011

THE INDIA MET DEPARTMENT HAS NOW DECLARED OFFICIAL MONSOON WITHDRAWAL FROM HIMACHAL PRADESH...  more details and the latest forecast info to come later this evening.

repeat performance... (am.26.sep.11)>

it is mostly clear, as the eastern sky brightens early this morning.  we've had a low temp of 61.0F (16.1C), with no additional rainfall overnight...  our thundershower last evening between 6:30 and 7:30pm delivered 0.21" (5mm) of rain.  total rainfall in the past nine days has been just 0.69" (1.8cm)!!

the humidity reading this morning is 67%, which is fairly average for the last several days.  although deep monsoon moisture is long gone, having been swept well to our south and east more than a week ago, our central weather story continues to be the lingering low-level moisture that remains stuck all along the front ranges of the himalayas.  we still have an east-southeast flow in the very lowest layers of the atmosphere which isn't allowing this moisture to escape.  so... every day by noon, after the sun has had a chance to heat things up a bit, that latent moisture in the air condenses out into clouds and patchy fog, with isolated brief light showers roaming about.  frankly, i see nothing in the computer model guidance to indicate that this pattern is going to dramatically change anytime soon.

temperatures are stuck as well... with no significantly cooler autumn-like temperatures expected just yet...

MONDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  some periods of fog in the PM, along with the risk of a passing shower.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY NIGHT: chance of a brief evening shower, then becoming mostly clear after dark.
low: 17C (62F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies... just a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: more of the same mix of sun and some clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

Sunday, September 25, 2011

renegade shower... (pm.25.sep.11)>

we finally got our renegade shower (with thunder) this evening, if only for a few minutes.  i just arrived home to find 0.21" (5mm) in the rain gauge, but already, skies are clearing and the stars are trying to come out.  today's high temp was 72.5F (22.5C), with alternating sun and clouds throughout the day.

isolated showers and thundershowers have been occurring in the mountains all week, but still we managed to get four full days without a drop of rain here in mcleod.  this evening we got to catch a bit of the action.  those shower chances will remain, but are quite small for any specific place on a given day.  expect more of the same mix of sun, clouds, and patches of late afternoon/evening fog as we enter the final days of the month.  our average daily humidity is now tolerable... sufficient for drying clothes... as long as you get an early start!

temperatures have been very uniform, with not much variability anticipated in the near term...

SUNDAY NIGHT: showers ending... clearing skies.
low: 17C (62F)

MONDAY: partly sunny skies.  some late afternoon fog, along with a risk of a brief shower.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.  slight chance of a shower.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: still a mix of sun and periods of clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: sunshine and some clouds.  nice temps.
high: 22C (72F)

the sun/cloud battle... (am.25.sep.11)>

it's another sunny, beautiful morning (at least it was until 5 minutes ago when some hazy funk has developed)... the low temp has been a rather comfortable 63.0F (17.2C), and the humidity stands at 77% to start the day.

although we haven't had a drop of rain in mcleod ganj and vicinity since tuesday afternoon, i am convinced that the very minute i remove even the slightest mention of isolated showers from the forecast, we'll end up getting one.!  every day, satellite indicates at least a couple of those roaming the mountains of himachal, and i still think it's just a matter of time until we catch a few drops.  but still... it is a minor thing, compared to the volume of rainfall we were receiving regularly up until just over a week ago.

the main story line continues to be the decent amounts of morning sun, yielding to a build-up of clouds and patchy fog that has seemed to peak during the late afternoon/early evening, before rapidly dissipating just after sunset.  there are no hard-and-fast rules or formulas pointing to the demise of that phenomenon... we may have to wait for the next "western disturbance" to blast through here to clean out the atmosphere once and for all...

SUNDAY: sunny skies until late morning, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy.  patchy fog and an isolated PM shower possible.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: lingering clouds and some fog in the evening, then becoming clear.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: morning sun, with some clouds and a slight chance of a shower in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: more sunshine... less cloudiness.  comfortable autumn temps.
high: 23C (73F)

Saturday, September 24, 2011

morning vs. evening... (pm.24.sep.11)>

there are just a few small breaks in the clouds this evening, but we did have more sunshine today than we've seen so far during this transition out of the monsoon season.  our high temp around mid-day was 72.9F (23.3C), and it's now four days in a row without any rain in the immediate area.

isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are still happening in the mountains from kashmir and himachal into uttar anchal during the mid- to late PM hours, and that makes me wonder if the official monsoon withdrawal will be declared for us in the next couple of days... or not.  the tedious and unusually slow trend of moisture departure continues, and overall, there has been noticeable improvement during the past week, but it remains to be seen how long this stubborn low-level moisture will hang in.  the murky conditions seem to be the most pronounced in the evenings (like right now), but then quickly dissipate right after sunset.  like clockwork.

all i know is that my laundry is drying quite nicely now, the doors fit into the doorjambs once again (just in the last 3-4 days), and the ferns are now clearly yellow, and dying.  those kinds of signs are irreversible...

SATURDAY NIGHT: evening clouds and a bit of fog... with clearing skies shortly after sunset.
low: 17C (62F)

SUNDAY: sunny skies til late morning, then partly to mostly cloudy.  an isolated PM shower?
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny AM, then a mix of sun and some clouds in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: a good amount of sun, with some PM clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

a perfect morning... (am.24.sep.11)>

we have crystal clear skies at sunrise this morning, with a humidity reading of 69%.  our overnight low temp has been 63.1F (17.3C).

monsoon withdrawal declarations by the IMD are now underway (check tab above), and will most likely be issued for himachal pradesh within the next couple of days.  average daily humidity continues to decrease, and we've had three days now without a drop of rain (and only 0.48"/1.2cm in the past week).  the pesky afternoon and early evening fog continues to develop, but even that should be totally out of the picture in a matter of days.  this year, the transformation has happened so incrementally, but the change of season is now nearly complete.

although there have been no showers in our vicinity since tuesday afternoon, keep in mind that there could still be a sudden, random, light shower during the PM hours for the next day or two... or at least until this lingering low-level moisture completely exits stage right.  temperatures will remain comfortable!

SATURDAY: lots of morning sun, with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy by noon.  patchy fog possible, along with a slight chance of a shower in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: clouds and/or fog giving way to clear skies after sunset.
low: 17C (62F)

SUNDAY: sunshine in the morning, partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and nice.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: lots of morning sun, then partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 23C (74F)

Friday, September 23, 2011

rainless days... (pm.23.sep.11)>

happy first day of fall...

clouds and fog have thickened up again this evening, after a day which has featured a greater percentage of sunshine than we've seen thus far during these dying days of the monsoon.  there was zero rainfall again today (the third in a row without so much as a drop), and our high temp reached a comfortable 74.3F (23.5C).

the first official monsoon withdrawal declaration was issued today... check the MONSOON'S DEMISE tab above for details.  no official declaration for us yet though, and it will be interesting to see what the IMD decides to do, considering the rainfall has pretty much ended, but the late day fog remains.

there are no significant changes to the general weather pattern expected for the next several days, so we'll have to rely on some gradually drier air sneaking in from the northwest to eventually stifle the PM interludes of clouds and fog.  i am hesistant to completely remove the risk of showers from the forecast, but any rainfall that occurs should be rather isolated and light, as has been the case for nearly a week now.

FRIDAY NIGHT: some clouds and areas of fog around this evening, then becoming mostly clear.
low: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: morning sunshine giving way to periods of clouds and fog by mid-day.  slight risk of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny AM, partly to mostly cloudy PM with an isolated shower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.  nice temps.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: sunny in the morning, a few clouds in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.
high: 23C (74F)

autumnal equinox... (am.23.sep.11)>

skies are mostly clear this morning at sunrise.  the current humidity reading is 72%, which is the lowest sunrise humidity i've recorded this month... a good sign.  my early morning low temp has been 63F (17.2C).

the weather pattern from the surface all the way into the upper atmosphere is pretty much stagnant.  there are some subtle things going on, but i'm not sure if there is anything significant enough happening to jolt us out of the morning sun/afternoon gloom thing we've been experiencing for about the last five days.  all week, computer models have been trying to introduce drier air from the northwest into the lower layers of the atmosphere, but so far, that hasn't really been materializing.  climatology and history prove that this lingering fog doesn't usually survive past about the 25-27th of september, so we'll see if we can get some improvement soon.  keep in mind that there are still some isolated mainly light showers (and a bit of thunder) occurring in the himalayas during the afternoons, so we may yet catch some of that action as well.

the autumnal equinox occurs this afternoon at 2:35pm indian standard time.  that is the moment when the direct rays of the sun are exactly on the equator, passing back into the southern hemisphere for the fall and winter seasons (and of course bringing spring and summer down under...).

FRIDAY: sunshine this morning, but becoming partly to mostly cloudy again by noon, with some periods of fog.  still a risk of an isolated PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: some fog, perhaps a brief shower in the evening, then clearing just after sunset.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY: morning sun, but clouds and a bit of fog developing around mid-day.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... still pleasant temps.
high: 23C (74F)

Thursday, September 22, 2011

mornings still best... (pm.22.sep.11)>

it is 100% cloudy and foggy this evening, but there has been no rainfall for the second day in a row.  we've only received 0.48" (1.2cm) of rain in the past six days, which makes this the driest stretch of days we've seen since before the monsoon arrived in early june.  thanks to sunshine this morning, with a few glimpses into the early afternoon, we were able to make it to 71.6F (22.0C).

ok... so we've gotten rid of most of the rain for this monsoon season, but the clouds and fog are another story entirely.  we've had periods of thick fog during the late afternoons and evenings the last several days that rival anything in the very middle of the season.  unfortunately, i can't find any tangible evidence that this low-level moisture responsible for the gloominess is going anywhere.  we may have to wait for the next upper-level disturbance to sweep through here to clear out the atmosphere for good, but at the moment, there is nothing on the horizon.  so, it looks like we'll have to be content with the few hours of very pleasant morning sunshine we've been getting on a daily basis.  if you're a late riser... too bad for you!

monsoon withdrawal declarations are on the way for parts of northwest india... check the MONSOON'S DEMISE tab above for details.

THURSDAY NIGHT: risk of a shower this evening, then clouds and fog giving way to mostly clear skies after dark.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: plenty of sunshine in the AM, with clouds and fog developing by mid-day.  slight chance of a shower during the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: morning sun, with periods of clouds and some fog in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning.  partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: morning sun giving way to some afternoon clouds.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: still a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 22C (72F)

sun and some clouds... (am.22.sep.11)>

there are just a few scattered clouds in the eastern sky, otherwise it is mostly clear at sunrise this morning.  we've had no rainfall overnight, and the low temp has been 63.1F (17.3C).

it looks like we can expect the same routine again today... with a generous amount of sunshine until the late morning, when clouds and some fog will develop.  there also remains the risk of a period of light showers at some point during the afternoon.  deep tropical moisture is no longer present, but remnant monsoon moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere remains stagnant in the hills and valleys all along the front ranges of the himalayas.  it continues to thin out, but will prevent us from enjoying totally sunny skies for a while longer.

there have still been no official monsoon withdrawal declarations from the IMD, but they are now talking about a possible withdrawal for much of rajasthan, punjab and haryana in the next 2-3 days.

temperatures have been pleasantly cool during the evenings, overnights and early mornings, but it will remain comfortably warm during our increasing hours of sunshine as we head into the weekend.

THURSDAY: a good amount of morning sun, with skies becoming mostly cloudy and foggy at times by mid-day.  risk of a period of showers this afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: lingering clouds and fog during the evening, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, with a mix of clouds and sun during the afternoon.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 24C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 24C (74F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, occasional clouds in the afternoon.
high: 24C (74F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy.  nice temps.
high: 23C (73F)

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

continued progress... (pm.21.sep.11)>

we've got clouds, a bit of fog, and some glimpses of the setting sun this evening.  there has been NO RAINFALL today (thus far), with a mid-day high temp of 72.5F (22.5C).

there are no dramatic changes to report... today's lack of rain was nice, but we still had to contend with the rapid build-up of clouds and brief periods of fog from the noon hour into the late afternoon.  what we are dealing with is a tremendous improvement over what was happening exactly one week ago, and gradual and incremental improvements can be expected as we head toward the weekend.  that means we will still be dealing with some clouds and a bit of fog by the mid-day hours... and there will be at least a mentionable chance of a light, passing shower.  but the good news is that average humidity readings will continue to edge downward, with a slightly higher percentage of sunshine as the days pass.

my laundry, which included a couple of fairly thick towels, almost completely dried today... and that is definitely a positive sign!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: lingering clouds and fog will quickly give way to mostly clear skies.
low: 16C (61F)

THURSDAY: morning sunshine, with some clouds and a bit of fog by mid-day.  risk of an isolated PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and very nice.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: sunshine with just a few clouds in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

one foot in, one foot out... (am.21.sep.11)>

it's shaping up to be a beautiful sunny morning.  our overnight low temp has been 61.9F (16.6C), and we've had 0.15" (4mm) of rain in the past 24 hours... most of which occurred between 2:30 and 5:00pm yesterday.

there is a complete absence of clouds this morning from afghanistan through all of northern india, and water vapor satellite imagery indicates that the back edge of deep monsoon moisture has now pushed all the way into central uttar pradesh.  of course lingering low-level moisture remains strung out all along the himalayan chains... and that's what has been responsible for the continued development of clouds and fog, along with a few isolated showers during the afternoons.  this is a feature that is pretty much ignored by the computer models, but obviously significant for us.  it's like we have one foot IN and one foot OUT of monsoon conditions... and i'm afraid we will have to endure the afternoon gloom and dampness until all of this left-over moisture is scoured out of the lower atmosphere.

the afternoon showers will be light.. we've only had 0.48" (1.2cm) of rain in the past four days... but the mornings will be the best time for enjoying the sunshine and drying out.  i'm still optimistically removing the rain altogether by the weekend.  we'll see...

WEDNESDAY: sunny this morning.  becoming partly to mostly cloudy around noon, with a good chance of some fog, along with a shower or two.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: any light showers ending during the evening... then clearing.
low: 16C (62F)

THURSDAY: lots of morning sun.  partly to mostly cloudy by the afternoon with a risk of a shower.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies with pleasant temps.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and very nice.
high: 24C (75F)

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

lingering dampness... (pm.20.sep.11)>

the sun is trying to break through again this evening, after another day which has included lots of variety.  the morning was mostly sunny and pleasant, but clouds and fog developed again right around the noon hour, leading to a period of occasional light rain showers starting around 2:20pm.  even now, as sunset approaches, there are still some sprinkles in the air.  total rainfall at the wxgeek office on tushita road was just 0.12" (3mm), and i recorded a high temp of 72.5F (22.5C).

we have obviously still not been able to get rid of this stubborn lingering moisture that has been responsible for the clouds, fog and scattered showers during the afternoons.  although rainfall amounts have been very light, nothing even close to what we were seeing last week, we still haven't reached the point where we can be assured of totally sunny and dry, post-monsoon conditions.  computer models continue to advertise a quiet, steadily and gradually drying weather pattern as we head into the latter part of the week.  just keep the umbrella in tow for the next few days... especially if you'll be out and about between roughly 1 and 6pm.

TUESDAY NIGHT: any showers ending early, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny skies in the morning, with some clouds, fog, and a shower or two during the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: morning sun, afternoon clouds.  still a risk of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: a good amount of sunshine, along with pleasant temps.
high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and nice.
high: 24C (76F)

step by step... (am.20.sep.11)>

we have mostly clear skies just before sunrise this morning.  the low temp overnight has been 61.9F (16.6C), with no rainfall since our showers late yesterday afternoon.  we've only received 0.33" (8mm) of rain since sundown on friday!

monsoon conditions are only active now across southern and eastern india, but there won't be any official declarations of withdrawal here in the north and west until the IMD is convinced that surface and upper-level weather features continue to move into alignment... without a "relapse" so to speak.  as we've seen, there is still a decent amount of low-level moisture available to lead to the development of some rather thick clouds and patches of fog during the mid-day and afternoon hours.  there have also been random, isolated showers in the afternoons in a few spots along the himalayas... but we're now going on four days without widespread moderate to heavy rainfall in northwest india... so the signs are good.  expect gradual improvement to continue  into the coming weekend.

we haven't talked at all about temperatures recently... but you've probably noticed that it has cooled down just slightly in the evenings and overnight hours.  as our humidity gradually drops, so will the night-time temps. during the daytime, as we get a greater percentage of sun, it will remain pleasantly warm.

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.  clouds and periods of fog most likely around mid-day into the afternoon.  there is still a chance of an isolated shower or two in the area during the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: a brief shower possible in the evening, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 16C (61F)

WEDNESDAY: generally sunny in the morning, with some clouds and a bit of fog by early afternoon.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: a good amount of sun... nice temps.
high: 24C (76F)

Monday, September 19, 2011

beautiful evening... (pm.19.sep.11)>

we are in the midst of a stunningly beautiful evening... after our fizzling monsoon stirred up a couple of late afternoon showers (with a little thunder) that produced 0.25" (0.6cm) of rain at the top of town on tushita road.  i recorded a high temp of 73.4F (23C).

we've been from one extreme to the other today, with generally sunny skies during the morning yielding to a period of clouds and fog, along with those showers during the mid- to late afternoon hours... then rapidly back to sunshine again.  all in all, pretty typical for the waning days of monsoon season.  the trend we've seen during the last two or three days will continue as the week progresses.  monsoon 2011 is in retreat, and we will likely see an increasing amount of sunshine, gradually lower average humidity readings during the day, and  smaller and smaller chances of significant rainfall.

i'm going to remove rain chances from the forecast altogether starting on thursday...  time will tell how foolhardy that is, but i really do think by the end of the week, we might be able to haul out the rugs and carpets for airing, catch up on laundry (without worrying about leaving it hanging out), and maybe even consider leaving the umbrellas at home. (?)

MONDAY NIGHT: still a risk of a passing shower or thundershower overnight... otherwise clear to partly cloudy.
low: 17C (62F)

TUESDAY: sunshine mixed with periods of clouds and a bit of fog by mid-day.  still a risk of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: sun and some clouds.  only a slight chance of a brief afternoon shower.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: a good amount of sunshine... pleasant.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and nice.
high: 24C (76F)

on our way... (am.19.sep.11)>

skies are clear to partly cloudy at sunrise this morning.  the overnight low temp has been 63.1F (17.3C), and there has been no rainfall during the past 24 hours.

monsoon conditions are weakening rapidly across northwest india, and that trend will continue this week.  the evaporation of moisture from the very wet ground, combined with lingering moisture in the lowest layers of the atmosphere will keep some periods of clouds and patchy fog in the forecast for another couple of days at least, but it is starting to look like the deep tropical moisture is most likely gone for this season.

isolated, mainly afternoon showers may still occur, but long-lasting, heavy rainfall isn't expected.  keep the umbrella within reach, but it will be needed less and less during the coming days.!

MONDAY: sunshine alternating with periods of clouds and some patchy fog at times.  risk of an isloated PM shower or two.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY NIGHT: a brief evening shower possible... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.  still a chance of an isolated shower in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny with only a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: mostly sunny and nice.
high: 24C (75F)

Sunday, September 18, 2011

positive momentum... (pm.18.sep.11)>

there are patches of clouds and fog drifting through this evening, but a bit of sunshine has been showing up as well.  thanks to a handful of appearances of the sun, our high temp made it to 71.8F (22.1C).  according to my records, today was the first time this month without so much as a single drop of rain.

and it has now been exactly 48 hours since we've seen significant rainfall... as yesterday's light rain and drizzle during the afternoon amounted to less than a tenth of an inch (2mm).  i am seeing nothing but positive signs for the week ahead.  although there remains a good amount of moisture trapped in the lowest layers of the atmosphere, drier air continues to flow in aloft, from the west.  gradually, this drier air in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere will mix down to the surface, scouring out the leftover monsoon moisture that has been stubborn to leave us.  we still can't rule out an isolated shower or two, mainly during the afternoons, but the chances of widespread, significant amounts of rain are diminishing rapidly.

it will take several days for official monsoon withdrawal declarations to be made for northwest india, but there seems to be nothing on the horizon that would reverse our current positive trends... click here for the latest.

SUNDAY NIGHT: slight chance of a stray sprinkle/light shower this evening.  otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies.
high: 17C (62F)

MONDAY: a mix of sunshine, clouds, and a few patches of fog.  an isolated shower possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.  slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  only a slight chance of an isolated PM shower.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and nice.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
high: 24C (75F)

transitioning... (am.18.sep.11)>

it's partly cloudy just before the sun peeks over the mountains this morning.  there were a few more sprinkles of rain overnight, and i recorded a low temp of 62.8F (17.1C).

we'll continue to fight this lingering low-level moisture for the next couple of days... which means despite some nice periods of sunshine, there will still be some clouds, occasional fog, and perhps a couple of (mainly light) showers to contend with.  all signs point to a continued drying out trend as we get into the middle and latter parts of the week... with no indication of a major resurgence of heavy or long-lasting monsoon rainfall.  so, although we're not yet to our crisp bright blue skies of autumn, we are making progress.

remember to check the MONSOON'S DEMISE tab at the top of the page if you're interested in an ongoing discussion of the official status of the withdrawal of monsoon conditions across the subcontinent.

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies.  still some periods of fog and perhaps a shower or two, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:  chance of an evening shower, otherwise partly cloudy overnight.
low: 17C (63F)

MONDAY: periods of sunshine, along with occasional clouds and a bit of fog.  risk of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  slight chance of an afternoon shower.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies, with still a risk of a brief shower in the PM.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 24C (75F)

Saturday, September 17, 2011

sputtering out... (pm.17.sep.11)>

we are socked in with clouds and fog this evening, with a few light sprinkles/showers in the area.  rainfall has only been 0.08" (2mm)* just below tushita and the mountaineering center.  we started off with some nice sunshine this morning, but the clouds, and eventually fog, started building in during the mid-day hours.  the high temp was 72.3F (22.4C).
[*updated @ 730pm]

although the rain has obviously eased up dramatically during the past 24 hours, there remains enough moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere to keep us from celebrating a totally defunct monsoon just yet.  our recent upper-level western disturbance did wonders in sweeping most of the mid- and upper level moisture east and south of us... introducing a drier flow of generally westerly winds aloft.  but as i was worried about, it is still going to take several more days until we can scour out this pesky moisture in the lowest layers of the atmosphere.

still... i think we can expect incremental improvement during the new week, with humidity gradually dropping, and the risk of significant rainfall diminishing as well.  not yet a good idea to send the umbrella into retirement, but it won't be long.

SATURDAY NIGHT: some evening fog, along with a shower or two... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

SUNDAY: a good amount of sunshine in the AM, then some clouds and fog developing, with a couple of showers possible in the afternoon.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: morning sun, followed by some clouds and fog, along with the risk of a shower during the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  only a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy with a brief shower possible in the afternoon.
high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.
high: 24C (75F) 

guarded optimism... (am.17.sep.11)>

skies are partly cloudy at sunrise this morning, as things begin to dry out from the last three days of heavy rainfall.  there was just a trace of rain overnight... leaving our total since wednesday afternoon at 6.37" (16.2cm).  i've recorded a low temperature before dawn of 61.7F (16.5C).

the weather system we've been talking about for much of the week is now weakening as it passes across northern india... but it has done its job.  winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere have shifted back to a more westerly direction, and already, drier air is filtering in.  there remains some lingering moisture in the lowest layers of the atmosphere, and along with the obviously very wet ground, it will take some time for things to truly dry out.  but... the overall weather pattern has now entered the phase we need to see to put an end to the monsoon season... so we'll be watching the transition during the coming week or so.

be aware that there could still be a few scattered showers and perhaps a thundershower, mainly during the afternoons in the days ahead, but probablities of significant rainfall will be decreasing, and amounts will diminish.  as usual, i'll pass along any "official" info from the india meteorological department regarding the retreating monsoon...

SATURDAY: some sunshine returns... along with occasional clouds as well.  still a risk of a period of showers and thunder, mainly during the PM.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a brief evening shower possible... then mostly clear and comfortably cool overnight.
low: 17C (62F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies... pleasant.  chance of a passing shower in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  an afternoon shower possible.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and nice... only a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny.  an isolated PM shower still possible.
high: 24C (76F)

Friday, September 16, 2011

drying out soon... (pm.16.sep.11)>

another wet day... it has been raining pretty much continuously, with only a few brief breaks.  i've recorded an additional 0.96" (2.4cm) as of 7:30pm*, which brings us up to 6.37" (16.2cm)* since this latest rainy spell began on wednesday afternoon.  today's high temp was the coolest of the month... 66.6F (19.2C).
[*updated at 730pm]

we're still getting bursts of moderate rain this evening, and satellite pics show the center of our "game-changing" upper-level disturbance centered along the pakistan/kashmir border, just to the southwest of srinagar.  there are still numerous clusters of rain with embedded thundershowers from extreme east-central pakistan, across punjab and himachal, into southern kashmir... all of the activity moving to the east and northeast.  this system will pass by overnight and early saturday, and as it does, it will push the deep monsoon airmass out of the northwest part of india.  over the weekend, we'll enjoy a dramatic change... the first real signs of the new season.

all of the forecast guidance and computer model data i am seeing today is pointing to a much drier, less humid and sunnier scenario for next week.  at this point, i'm not going to totally take the chance of scattered rain showers out of the forecast, since there could still be enough moisture around to stir up the mainly afternoon mountain shower action... but confidence is building that the days of 90-100% humidity, thick fog and frequent heavy downpours are quickly drawing to a close.  check back for further updates throughout the weekend...

FRIDAY NIGHT: still a couple of rain showers overnight... thunder possible as well.  winds could be gusty at times.  quite cool. (*updated @ 830pm).
low: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and LESS HUMID.  still a chance of some stray showers around the area.
high: 22C (71F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.  risk of a PM shower.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  a shower or two possible during the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies, pleasant temps.  just a slight chance of a random shower.
high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY: gorgeous early autumn weather... mix of sun and clouds with a slight chance of a brief PM shower.
high: 24C (75F)

huge rainfall totals... (am.16.sep.11)>

i've got some big rainfall numbers to report this morning as of 6am:

-12 hour total (overnight): 1.89" (4.8cm)
-24 hour total (since thu morning): 4.22" (10.7cm)
-48 hour total (since wed morning): 5.41" (13.7cm)

there is still some light rain in the area, and we've had a rather cool overnight low temp of 61.2F (16.2C), along with a breeze that has picked up in the last couple of hours.

our inaugural western upper-level disturbance of the season is making its move across the western himalayas at the moment, with style.  as it plows into this deep field of tropical moisture, widespread rain and even a few thunderstorms have been developing and tracking slowly to the east.  the center of this disturbance won't pass by until late tonight, so our chances of heavy rainfall will continue for another 12-18 hours or so.  as it passes, it looks like it will be strong enough to sweep our monsoon airmass south and east of us... leaving us with much drier air, more sunshine, and much less rainfall for the rest of the weekend into next week.

we'll have to watch carefully next week to see if monsoon conditions creep back in here, or if we can start counting the days to an "official" monsoon withdrawal declaration for northwest india!

FRIDAY: clouds with random peeks of sun.  periods of rain likely with possible thunderstorms, along with the continuing potential for heavy downpours.  cooler.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of another round of rain and thunder.  breezy and cooler.
low: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY: LESS HUMID.... partly cloudy skies, with a couple of stray showers possible.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.  chance of an afternoon shower.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds, with a risk of a shower, mainly in the PM.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy.  slight chance of a brief shower.
high: 24C (75F)

Thursday, September 15, 2011

the last gasp?.. (pm.15.sep.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy this evening, with some patches of fog.  it has been a very wet day... nearly a half inch of rain fell prior to sunrise this morning, with a massive deluge right around the noon hour which dumped 2.33" (5.9cm) in about an hour and a half.  there was flooding in many areas, including the main square, where the western union office was inundated and rocks/debris piled up, as usual.  the total rainfall for the day = 2.81" (7.1cm) thus far, and our high temp was 71.8F (22.1C).

...and we're not out of the woods yet.  as we've been talking about, the first significant "western disturbance" of the season is making its move in our direction, and with all the tropical moisture in place, we are in line for more moderate to heavy rainfall during the next 24 to 36 hours.  in fact, some places from southwestern kashmir through punjab and western himachal pradesh could pick up an additional 4-5" (10-13cm) before saturday morning rolls around.

after that, much drier central asian air will pour across the area in the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere, with significantly drier air at the surface as well.  humidity will drop over the weekend, along with a diminishing potential for heavy rain.  it remains to be seen whether this system will be strong enough to push this year's monsoon moisture far enough south and east of us for good... but it will be a huge leap in the right direction.

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  good chance of more rain (heavy??) and possible thunderstorms overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and thunderstorms.  heavy rainfall potential, again.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY: early morning rain possible, with a chance of a shower or two again later in the day.  otherwise partly cloudy and much less humid.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.  risk of a shower, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy with a risk of mainly afternoon showers.
high: 24C (75F)

thursday rain...

*1:21pm... 2.30" (5.8cm) now.  light to moderate rain is still falling, but the intensity has dropped off a lot during the past half hour or so.

*12:45pm... at the top of mcleod ganj... 1.92" (4.9cm) of rainfall since about 11:15am.  lots of water in the main square, with the usual flooding at the western union office.  rocks and debris clogging up most of the roads.  still raining hard.

turning point approaches... (am.15.sep.11)>

this morning's low temp: 65.5F (18.6C)
rainfall yesterday up to 7:30pm: 1.19" (3.0cm)
rainfall overnight/early this morning: 0.48" (1.2cm)
total 24 hour rainfall up to 7:00am: 1.64" (4.2cm)

we had thunder rumbling around very early this morning, with a few light showers, then a healthy downpour around 5:30-6:00am.  skies are attempting to clear at the moment, but the airmass is still nearly saturated, so clouds and fog won't be very far away throughout the day.

if you're a rain lover, enjoy the next 36-48 hours or so, because it is looking more and more likely that we are now finally on the tail end of bonafide monsoon conditions here in himachal pradesh.  abundant tropical moisture remains in place, as the first strong upper-level disturbance of the new fall season drops in from the northwest.  periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms will occur between now and late friday night, but as this system moves out of here over the weekend, much drier air from central asia will replace the tropical airmass that has been encamped over northwest india for nearly 3 months.  humidity will drop substantially, and rain chances/amounts will fall as well.

"official monsoon withdrawal" will take at least another several days, as there must be 5 days in a row without measurable rainfall for that to happen.  but as is the case at the beginning of the season, the official declaration is not as important as the obvious changes that we can all see and feel.  stay tuned.

THURSDAY: a glimpse or two of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional fog, along with a few periods of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with fog, rain and thunderstorms.  heavy rain possible.
low: 18C (65F)

FRIDAY: periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.  the potential for heavy rain is quite high.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: LESS HUMID, with partly sunny skies.  risk of a lingering shower or two.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.  a brief PM shower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy skies.  a couple of afternoon showers are possible.
high: 24C (75F)

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

game-changer ahead... (pm.14.sep.11)>

it's mostly cloudy this evening with patchy fog and a few light rain showers in the area.  we've had off and on showers today, but there was one particularly heavy deluge between 2 and 3pm that has given us a total rainfall for the day of exactly 1.0" (2.5cm).  thanks to a few peeks of sunshine, our high temp made it up to 74.8F (23.8C).

some very interesting weather is on the way for the next several days.  in the near-term, our risk of moderate to heavy monsoon downpours remains in the forecast... with the potential for more than 3" (7-8cm) between now and friday night.  some thunder and lightning will accompany the rain, as we saw this afternoon.  but, over the weekend, we are going to finally experience a radical shift in the overall weather pattern.  the first significant upper-level disturbance of the fall season will be sweeping in from northwest, delivering a blast of much drier air in its wake.  that means, by late saturday and sunday, we should see a dramatic drop in humidity levels as deep tropical moisture is pushed south and east of us.

there is a good chance we could see a brief resurgence of monsoon moisture thereafter, but right now, it appears that this weekend will mark the "beginning of the end" of monsoon 2011.!!  remember to check the MONSOON'S DEMISE tab at the top of the page for regular updates.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of more rain and thunderstorms developing/moving through.
low: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: a glimpse or two of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunder likely.  rain could be heavy...
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with occasional fog, rain and thunder.  heavy rain possible.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a shower or two in the area, otherwise partly cloudy, breezy and less humid.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies, with a risk of an afternoon shower.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: risk of a shower or two, otherwise partly cloudy and rather pleasant.
high: 23C (74F)

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

saturation... (pm.13.sep.11)>

we've managed to make it into the evening with only a few sprinkles (thus far).  there has been plenty of cloudiness and fog around, with only a few brief periods of sunshine... but rain has had a hard time developing today.  satellite pics show isolated showers along the himalayan chains, from northern pakistan all the way into nepal, but they've mostly avoided us.  i've recorded just 0.02" (less than 1mm) of rain today, with a high temp of 75.7F (24.3C).

outdoor humidity has been hovering in the 92-99% range all day, as evidenced by the persistent fog... indicating that the atmosphere is still chock-full of tropical moisture.  it is just a matter of time before we get another round of moderate to heavy showers.  in fact, it appears that the rain potential will be steadily on the rise throughout the remainder of the week.

finally, something more interesting is on the horizon... the first "western disturbance" of the season is starting to show up on the computer models, possibly moving through here over the weekend.  if that is the case, after its passage, we could see the deep monsoon moisture swept south and east of us for the first time.  stay tuned during the next several days to see how this evolves...

TUESDAY NIGHT: periods of clouds and fog, along with a chance of some rain developing.
low: 18C (65F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with occasional fog.   good chance of a couple of rounds of rain.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.  heavy rain possible.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with fog at times.  rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds, sun, fog, rain and thunder...
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy and breezy and less humid, with a few lingering showers possible.
high: 23C (73F)

autopilot2... (am.13.sep.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 71.6C (22C)
this morning's low temp: 65.7F (18.7C)
24 hour rainfall as of 6:30am: 0.70" (2.0cm)

the sun is shining early this morning, but it's likely not to last long, as clouds and fog are already starting to develop.  for the last couple of days, it has looked like we might actually get a rare dry day, but then as the day in question arrives, computer models have changed their tune, and recognized that there is indeed enough zip left in this late monsoon airmass to squeeze out yet more rain.

as i mentioned last night, there are really no new factors in play... which means the combination of clouds, peeks of sun, fog and downpours of rain we've been accustomed to for weeks, will keep on keepin' on.  there is still enough moisture in the air to get an inch or two of rain in just a few hours, which will keep our september rainfall tally ticking upward...

TUESDAY: glimpses of sunshine, otherwise plenty of clouds and fog in the area.  a period of rain is likely.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: fog and lingering showers in the evening, then generally partly cloudy overnight.
low: 18C (65F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  periods of fog and rain.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: clouds and fog will continue to dominate... good chance of more rain.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies.  still a period or two of fog and some stray showers.
high: 23C (74F)


Monday, September 12, 2011

autopilot... (pm.12.sep.11)>

sunshine has been a rarity today... lots of clouds and periods of fog pretty much all day, with a hefty downpour of rain between 10:50am and noon, which delivered 0.70" (1.8cm) to my rain gauge at the top of mcleod ganj.  that brings the total for september up to 9.28" (23.6cm), which averages out to about 0.80" (2cm) per day for the month... above the norm.  today's high temp was just 71.6F (22C).

i really don't have much new information to convey... the usual suspects will remain in play, keeping us alternating between clouds, fog, downpours of rain, and the occasional period of sunshine (mainly in early mornings and again in the evenings).  forecast guidance tools do not give any indication of an appreciable reduction in moisture/humidity in the air, nor in general patterns from the surface into the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere.  for the near-term, that means status quo.

one week from now, there could be some changes afoot.  will keep an eye on things and let you know if we might start to see the beginning of the end...

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a few rain showers overnight.
low: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and occasional fog.  good chance of a shower at some point.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog, and a good chance of a period or two of rain.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy, with periods of rain and fog.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: clouds and fog, with a few peeks of sun.  still some rain likely.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny.  occasional fog, with a shower or two around the area.
high: 23C (73F)

little relief in sight... (am.12.sep.11)>

this morning's low temp: 64.9F (18.3F)
24 hour rainfall as of 6:30am: 1.19" (3.0cm)


internet connectivity issue this morning.  sorry for late post...

MONDAY: plenty of clouds and fog around, with a few peeks of sunshine (if we're lucky).  looking ripe for a couple of rounds of heavy showers, perhaps some thunder.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY NIGHT: some showers around in the evening, then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and glimpses of sun.  a shower or two... mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  occasional fog and rain showers.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy.  periods of fog and rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: same old thing... clouds, fog, a peek of sun, a couple of periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

Sunday, September 11, 2011

all options... (pm.11.sep.11)>

this morning's low temp: 66F (18.9C)
today's high temp: 76.1F (24.5C)
rainfall midnight to 8:30pm: 1.19" (3.0cm)

we've had all today that the season can offer... some nice sunshine this morning with clear views, some periods of thick clouds and fog with near zero visibility, and a couple of rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall with some thunder thrown into the mix.  most of the rain fell between 11:15am and 2:00pm, but there have been another couple of hefty showers this evening, which i'll add to the total asap. *updated total to 830pm added above*

there are no dramatic changes to the general weather pattern expected during the new week.  we haven't had a dry day since last monday, but i think tomorrow or tuesday could be candidates (thinking positively).  we'll continue to see these pendulum swings between pleasant sunshine and full-on monsoon fog and rain, as tropical moisture maintains its grip on all of the subcontinent.

for the first time, i am seeing just a HINT of a changing airmass about 8-10 days from now.  will have to watch this carefully to see if it is genuine or not...

SUNDAY NIGHT: lingering rain showers this evening, with a chance of another shower overnight.  otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 18C (65F)

MONDAY: alternating sun, clouds and a bit of fog.  risk of a shower or two, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: mix of clouds, sun and fog, with rainshower potential, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional fog and rain.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  periods of fog and rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: another mix of clouds, sun, fog and showers.
high: 23C (72F)

struggling sunshine... (am.11.sep.11)>

our sunday morning is dawning beautifully... with partly cloudy skies and good visibilities, due to a total lack of fog.  humidity remains rather high though, at 83%, after a couple of light showers around 4-5am delivered 0.02" of rain.  this morning's low temp was 66F (19C).

i've made a couple of excursions into the forest above town during the past few days, and am noticing that the ferns and mosses on south and west-facing slopes are rapidly yellowing and drying out.  but in areas with just northern and eastern exposure, the growth is still very robust and green. during the next couple of weeks, as we get a greater and greater percentage of sunshine, and a gradual drop in average daily humidity, we should see more yellowing.  this process is a reliable natural gauge of the monsoon's incremental departure.

despite these positive signs, periods of fog and occasional moderate to heavy downpours will remain in the forecast through the week, with the latter part of the week again looking to hold the best potential for the wettest weather, as another surge of tropical moisture moves northward.

SUNDAY: partly sunny this morning.  mostly cloudy with some fog during the PM, along with a good chance of a period of rain.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: a shower or two possible during the evening, then becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight.
low: 18C (65F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and a bit of fog.  chance of a shower, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy.  a period or two of fog and rain during the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: peeks of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with some fog.  good chance of rain.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)


Saturday, September 10, 2011

umbrella still required... (pm.10.sep.11)>

i was nearly convinced that we were going to end up with a rare dry day, when suddenly the skies opened up and we got a fairly heavy downpour, starting just before 5:00pm.  it is still raining (rather heavily) at the time of this writing,...will report back with a rainfall total later this evening.  although visibility was good for most of the day, clouds were still the dominant feature, with a high temp of 72.5F (22.5C), and humidity generally in the 80-90% range.

*update @ 715pm... i received exactly 0.50" (1.3cm) of rain here at the top of mcleod ganj between 450 and 615pm.*

what happened late this afternoon/evening, is a perfect example of why, despite some nice periods of dry/fogless weather, we are not yet to the place where we can say that the monsoon has left us.  tropical moisture (in abundance) remains, and will continue to manifest itself in areas of thick fog... and rung out of the atmosphere in the form of moderate to heavy downpours on occasion.  of course the periods of sunshine and clear visibility give us hope that the tide will turn in due course.  if you're interested, updates on the withdrawal of monsoon 2011 will be posted on the tab MONSOON'S DEMISE, at the top of the page.

it does look like the trend in the next 2-3 days will be toward a greater proportion of dry hours... but there are indications that we could see another wave/surge of deep moisture and heavy rainfall once again by the middle of the coming week.  stay tuned...

SATURDAY NIGHT: some moderate to heavy showers this evening... then a continuing chance of a shower or two overnight.  otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and a bit of fog.  risk of a period of rain, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: partly sunny skies.  good chance of a PM shower.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: glimpses of sun in the midst of clouds and occasional fog.  good chance of a couple of mainly PM rain showers.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: clouds and fog with peeks of sunshine.  a period or two of rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)


the combo pack... (am.10.sep.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 70.0.F (21.1C)
this morning's low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
24 hour rainfall as of 6:30am: 0.63" (1.6cm)


total rainfall since wednesday: 2.89" (7.3cm)
total rainfall for september thus far: 6.87" (17.4cm)

the sun is doing battle with clouds as it rises above the mountains this morning, after a night in which we received only 0.05" (1mm) of additional rainfall.  satellite views this morning show a wide area of broken cloud cover over northern india, with some embedded light rain showers, but nothing more serious than that.  of course that will change as the day goes on... any sunshine will heat up the lower atmosphere, create instability, and trigger scattered areas of rain and perhaps some thundershowers.  locally heavy downpours are possible once again.

i'm still expecting rain chances to diminish somewhat during the first part of the coming week.  however, tropical humidity/moisture isn't going anywhere, so we can look forward to this continued "surge and retreat" monsoon pattern right into the middle of the month.  looking at extended range data, there is still no sign of a permanent monsoon withdrawal.

SATURDAY: clouds, some fog, and a few peeks of sun.  a period of rain is likely, along with possible thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a shower possible, mainly early, then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, sun, and fog.  good chance of a period or two of rain.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: partly sunny.  patches of fog, along with a chance of a shower or two, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: glimpses of sun between clouds and fog.  chance of a couple of PM showers.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  occasional fog and rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

Friday, September 9, 2011

wildcard weekend... (pm.9.sep.11)>

a beautiful evening is in progress, for the moment at least.  the rain was pretty much non-stop until about 4pm, but it was generally in the light to moderate category, with an additional 0.58" (1.5cm) since 6:30am.  after that, skies cleared rapidly, with some stunning, crisp views all around.  we managed a high temp of just 70.0F (21.1C)... by my records, the coolest day of the month so far.

it's hard to tell if we're getting just a break in the action, or whether this latest surge of monsoon conditions has come to an end.  satellite pics show most of the rain and thunder moving out, but there is a bit of new development which may affect us later this evening or overnight.  computer models insist on more rainfall accumulation, on the order of 2-3cm (1") at least... so be aware that the rain could start up again at any time.

late tomorrow into the first part of next week, it appears we will shift into a weaker phase of the monsoon... so expect longer stretches of dry weather to return, along with a bit more sun and a bit less fog.  of course, the risk of tropical downpours will remain in the forecast, but they should be of shorter duration, with daily rainfall rates diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, but there is still a good chance of another period of rain and thunder.
low: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  occasional fog, with more rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and some fog.  a shower or two likely, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: peeks of sunshine in the midst of occasional clouds and fog.  good chance of a couple of showers.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny.  chance of mainly afternoon rain.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds and fog alternating with some sunshine.  a period or two of rain likely.
high: 23C (73F)

drip drip drip... (am.9.sep.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 73.2F (22.9C)
this morning's low temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
24 hour rainfall as of 6:30am: 1.77" (4.5cm)

skies are cloudy and light rain is falling at sunrise this morning.  although there was a lot of thunder and lightning last night, and it has been raining off and on, there has only been an additional 0.33" (8mm) in the rain gauge during the past 12 hours or so.  the vast majority of our 24 hour total came during yesterday afternoon.

i'm still a bit stunned by some of the rainfall amounts being forecast between now and saturday afternoon by a couple of the usually reliable computer models.  there is a bull's eye of 10-15cm (4-6") right over the northwest half of himachal pradesh.  it will be interesting to see if we get anywhere close to that during the coming 24 to 36 hours.

by late saturday, the flow in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere is going to shift, and that should diminish our rain potential for at least a couple of days.  having said that, there will still be lots of tropical moisture in the air, so we won't yet be saying "goodbye" to monsoon 2011...

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain likely.  heavy rain potential remains, with some thunder possible again as well.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy.  foggy at times, with more rain likely.
low: 18C (64F)

SATURDAY: still a good chance of a couple of rounds of moderate to heavy rain.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with some fog at times.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and a period or two of fog.  a shower or two, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: partly sunny.  a period or two of fog and rain, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: a couple of showers possible, otherwise partly sunny with occasional fog.
high: 23C (73F)

Thursday, September 8, 2011

monsoon: active... (pm.8.sep.11)>

**updated rainfall total @ 7:15pm = 1.45" (3.7cm).  light rain/drizzle and some lightning in progress.**

the heavier rain we've been anticipating for several days arrived this afternoon.  i recorded 1.38" (3.5cm) this afternoon between 1:20 and 4:45pm.  thunder and occasional light rain/drizzle continue around the area at the time of this writing, so check back here for an updated rainfall total later tonight.  a couple of hours of sunshine this morning boosted our high temp to 73.2F (22.9C).

satellite pics this evening show all kinds of rain and thundershower activity across northern india... from kashmir through himachal, then southward through punjab and haryana to the delhi NCR.  this latest active phase of the monsoon pattern will continue into the first part of the weekend... with the likelihood of another couple of rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall.  i'm still keeping an eye on computer model output suggesting quite heavy totals of 10-12cm (4-5") by late friday/early saturday.

looking further ahead, rainfall rates should diminish again by late saturday and sunday, but there is still no indication of a significant decrease in humidity, or in the generally saturated tropical character of the airmass over northern india.  daily periods of clouds, fog and showers will remain in the forecast into the middle of next week (and beyond)...  be sure to check the MONSOON'S DEMISE tab above if you're interested in info on the permanent retreat/withdrawal of this year's rainy season.

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with periods of fog, along with some rain and thunder.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: a period or two of moderate-heavy rain still likely... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with occasional fog.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog.  still a good chance of some rain showers.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: peeks of sunshine, along with periods of clouds and fog.  good chance of a shower or two.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog.  a rain shower or two, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny with occasional fog.  good chance of a shower or two in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

wild swings... (pm.7.sep.11)>

skies are partly cloudy this evening, with occasional patches of fog drifting through.  we had about two hours of rain during the late morning into the early afternoon which amounted to 0.49" (1.2cm), otherwise, we've seen the clouds, fog and sunshine doing battle all day long.  our high temp, which occurred just before the rain moved in, was 73.8F (23.2C).

average daily rainfall rates have decreased significantly since our extremely wet august, but as we look ahead to the next few days, and even the next week to 10 days, there is still no indication that monsoon conditions will end for good.  in fact, heavy rainfall remains a good bet between now and the weekend, with a couple of the computer models still advertising more than 10cm (4") in the next couple of days, along with humidity remaining between 90-100% for the most part.  some downpours could include thunder and lightning as well.

despite the pleasant interludes, it's not a great idea to leave home without the umbrella just yet...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies.  chance of more rain developing overnight.
low: 18C (65F)

THURSDAY: a glimpse or two of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  periods of rain... possibly heavy at times.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: a period or two of rain... potentially heavy.  otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy with some fog.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: still a good chance of rain, otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional fog.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog.  good chance of a shower or two.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with some rain likely.
high: 23C (74F)

increasing wetness... (am.7.sep.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 75F (23.9C)
this morning's low temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
24 hour rainfall as of 6:00am: 0.51" (1.3cm)

we've had no more rain overnight, and just before sunrise this morning, skies are partly cloudy, with a very high humidity reading of 97%.  the total rainfall for the month of september thus far is 3.98" (10.1cm)... and i think there is a decent chance of doubling that during the next 48-72 hours.

conditions are ripe for the development of moderate to heavy rain between now and the weekend, as the latest surge of monsoon moisture and energy arrive.  all computer guidance is in agreement that we should see at least a couple of rounds of significant rainfall... with the accompanying thick fog that we all love so much.  the good news is that there will also be a few periods of sunshine in the midst of it all, but don't expect it to last long.  there could also be some thunder and lightning involved in this latest round, so keep that in mind if you are going to be venturing into the mountains away from shelter.

WEDNESDAY: some morning sun mixed with the clouds... but becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of rain developing.  thunder is possible as well.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with fog at times.  a period of rain likely.
low: 18C (64F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain.  chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: generally cloudy skies with occasional fog and rain.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with some fog.  good chance of more rain.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and fog.  a shower or two around.
high: 23C (74F)

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

another surge... (pm.6.sep.11)>

today's high temp: 75F (23.9C)
rainfall as of 9:00pm: 0.51" (1.3cm)

we've had the usual mix today of mid- and high clouds, glimpses of sunshine, and by mid-afternoon, increasing fog, along with the development of some light to moderate rain. light rain continues to fall at the moment (5:45pm), so check back here for an updated tally later this evening when i am within reach of the gauge again.

despite the couple of hours of truly nice weather earlier today, satellite photos have been looking ominous... with lots of development along the dhauladhars, and another area of widespread rain and thunderstorms blossoming to our south across punjab, haryana and southern himachal.  this action to our south is drifting northward, and may affect us overnight.

as mentioned for the last few days, the latter half of this week is still looking much wetter than the first half.  tropical moisture is surging again, aided by a mid-level wind field favorable for moderate to heavy rainfall on the southwestern slopes of the himalayan ranges.  expect periods of rain for the remainder of the week, with a good chance for some very hefty totals (12cm/5"+) by the time saturday rolls around... and that may be on the conservative side.

of course there will be some breaks in the action here and there, which will (hopefully) include some peeks of sunshine.

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain overnight.  thunder is possible.
low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  occasional fog and rain.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy, with periods of fog, along with moderate to heavy rain at times.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy.  periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY: still mostly cloudy.  occasional fog, and a few rain showers.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds, sun, and patches of fog.  a period of rain possible.
high: 23C (74F)

more clouds... (am.6.sep.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
this morning's low temp: 66.4 (19.1C)
24 hour rainfall as of 6:30am: trace

it's another cloudy morning... but we're now going on 48 hours without significant rainfall, which i think has been a very welcome respite.  humidity this morning stands at 83%, so despite the lack of rain, there is still plenty of moisture in the air.

i think the challenge for all of us in the near-term is NOT to get seduced into thinking the rains are winding down for good.  every single indication points to the development of more moderate to heavy rainfall as this week progresses.  in fact, one of the newer computer models is showing up to 20cm (7.8") of rain getting dumped on roughly the western half of himachal pradesh during the wednesday to friday period.  that could be overblown, but combined with other factors in place, it's at least a heads-up on what could be on the horizon.

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with a few periods of fog.  chance of some showers, mainly during the PM.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a few rain showers possible.
low: 18C (65F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  periods of rain becoming more likely.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain... possibly heavy.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy skies with fog and rain likely.  heavy rain potential continues.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with some fog at times.  a few showers around.
high: 22C (72F)