Thursday, September 15, 2011

turning point approaches... (am.15.sep.11)>

this morning's low temp: 65.5F (18.6C)
rainfall yesterday up to 7:30pm: 1.19" (3.0cm)
rainfall overnight/early this morning: 0.48" (1.2cm)
total 24 hour rainfall up to 7:00am: 1.64" (4.2cm)

we had thunder rumbling around very early this morning, with a few light showers, then a healthy downpour around 5:30-6:00am.  skies are attempting to clear at the moment, but the airmass is still nearly saturated, so clouds and fog won't be very far away throughout the day.

if you're a rain lover, enjoy the next 36-48 hours or so, because it is looking more and more likely that we are now finally on the tail end of bonafide monsoon conditions here in himachal pradesh.  abundant tropical moisture remains in place, as the first strong upper-level disturbance of the new fall season drops in from the northwest.  periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms will occur between now and late friday night, but as this system moves out of here over the weekend, much drier air from central asia will replace the tropical airmass that has been encamped over northwest india for nearly 3 months.  humidity will drop substantially, and rain chances/amounts will fall as well.

"official monsoon withdrawal" will take at least another several days, as there must be 5 days in a row without measurable rainfall for that to happen.  but as is the case at the beginning of the season, the official declaration is not as important as the obvious changes that we can all see and feel.  stay tuned.

THURSDAY: a glimpse or two of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional fog, along with a few periods of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with fog, rain and thunderstorms.  heavy rain possible.
low: 18C (65F)

FRIDAY: periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.  the potential for heavy rain is quite high.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: LESS HUMID, with partly sunny skies.  risk of a lingering shower or two.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.  a brief PM shower possible.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy skies.  a couple of afternoon showers are possible.
high: 24C (75F)