the latest...

**Sunrise Thursday -- we have mostly clear skies, with a pleasantly mild temp near 63ºF/17ºC. Forecast details are on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above...

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

unseasonably mild... (pm.31.may.11)>

skies are partly cloudy this evening after a day pretty much split 50/50 between clouds and sunshine.  the afternoon high reached 79.9F (26.6C) for the second day in a row... we still haven't been able to bust the 80F barrier since last thursday.

there are thundershowers scattered all along the higher peaks of the front ranges of the himalayas just before sunset... from kashmir and himachal pradesh into uttar anchal and western nepal.  nothing significant has occurred over the dhauladars though.  the last couple of days have been pretty quiet, but it looks like the active weather is set to return during the coming day or so.  an upper-level disturbance is organizing now to our northwest, and will pivot southeastward through pakistan and himalayan north india during the next 48-60 hours.  i still think the prime timeframe for strong thunderstorms and significant rainfall will occur between tomorrow (wednesday) and the wee hours of friday morning.  maybe i'm being optimistic, but i think rain amounts could be in the 1/2 to 1" range (1.3-2.5cm).  last week, lightning caused a major fire in triund and killed hundreds of sheep and goats on the higher passes... so be aware and be prepared if you plan to be trekking on wednesday and thursday!

things will rapidly calm down on friday, with unseasonably cool temperatures for a day or two before it starts to warm up late in the weekend.  it has been very nice to be spared the very warm and muggy weather that typically occurs during the may/june transition..

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and comfortable, with a chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies.  shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.
high: 27C (80F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool.  good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY: slight chance of a morning shower, then becoming mostly sunny.
high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies... warming a bit.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: sunshine and a few clouds, with a risk of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 27C (80F)


may bows out... (am.31.may.11)>

a very nice morning is dawning... we have clear to partly cloudy skies.  the early morning low temp has been 68.7F (20.4C).

satellite photos show dead calm weather from afghanistan into northwest india, so it looks like at least the first part of our tuesday will be sunny and quiet.  but with the morning sun comes rapid warming, leading to the potential for a few thundershowers to develop over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  temps will climb for the fourth day in a row... finally approaching "normal" for the end of may, and should stay in that range for the first day of june as well.

as the new month arrives, rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase once again.  a rather strong upper-level disturbance will be trekking from northern pakistan into northern india between late tomorrow and early friday, and it looks like this system will be able to tap into some good moisture.  at this point, i think we could see at least a couple of waves of strong thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rainfall during the late wednesday afternoon through early friday morning timeframe.  our rainfall is running well below normal since the last week of april, so it would be nice to catch up a bit...


TUESDAY: mostly sunny early, then becoming partly cloudy.  warmer, with a thundershower possible this afternoon.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: a couple of showers or thundershowers in the area this evening... otherwise partly cloudy skies.
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and warm... increasing chance of a period of thunderstorms by late afternoon and evening.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and turning cooler.  good chance of a period or two of rain and thunderstorms.
high: 26C (79F)

FRIDAY: a morning shower possible, otherwise partly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 26C (79F)


Monday, May 30, 2011

fickleness... (pm.30.may.11)>

we have sunshine and just a few cumulus clouds over the mountains this evening.  thundershowers failed to develop today, despite an ominous build-up of clouds during the late morning.  those clouds quickly dissipated though, leaving us with a mostly sunny afternoon.  i recorded a high temp of 79.9F (26.6C) up at the top of mcleod ganj.

it looks like we'll remain in this recent fickle "limbo" state for another 36-48 hours or so... with alternating clouds and sun, along with at least a slight chance of a thundershower during the afternoon and overnight hours.  temperatures have been creeping up slowly for the past 3 days, and will continue that trend through wednesday.  however, by wednesday afternoon, we'll start to come under the shadow of the next upper-level storm system which will swing in from the west.  the computer model guidance looks pretty impressive with regard to some strong thunderstorm activity and even the potential for some heavy rainfall... especially between late wednesday and very early friday morning.  factor that into your outdoor plans.

temps still haven't rebounded to the "normal" range for the end of may... but could yet do so tomorrow and the day after.  then... we'll get another shot of cooler air along with the increased rain risk for the latter part of the week.

*the IMD (india meteorological department) has issued the first monsoon onset map of the 2011 season.  it shows that the leading edge of monsoon conditions have now arrived in coastal kerala... pretty much right on schedule.  we still have about a month to get ready!*

MONDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.  slight chance of some thunder after midnight.
low: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.  risk of a random PM thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, warm and more humid.  good chance of a thunderstorm developing during the afternoon/evening.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good possibility of some showers and thunderstorms in the area.  rainfall could be heavy.
high: 27C (80F)

FRIDAY: rain diminishing and moving out... then partly cloudy and mild.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: sun and a few clouds.  pleasant temps.
high: 26C (79F)

things to watch... (am.30.may.11)>

a fresh and pleasant monday morning... we have partly cloudy skies and 65.8F (18.8C) just before sunrise.  there was no additional rainfall overnight.

clouds will do battle with the sun again today, as temperatures try to creep upward a little bit more.  computer models have been doing a lousy job (weatherman shifting blame :-)) forecasting temps the last couple of days... they keep showing a bullish warm-up, but we haven't even been able to get back up to 80F (26.7C) since last thursday before the big rains.  we'll try again today!  the flow in the upper atmosphere is coming from the northwest, and is embedded with weak little disturbances... so thundershowers may again blossom over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  but as we saw yesterday, it is unlikely that we'll get any significant rainfall out of the deal.  we'll have to wait for the late wednesday through early friday time frame, when a much stronger upper-level storm system moves through... bringing with it a couple of rounds of strong thunderstorms and potentially moderate to heavy rainfall.

the warmest days of the coming week should be tuesday and wednesday, but temperatures will drop again by late thursday and friday, courtesy of the clouds and rain.

MONDAY: partly sunny and pleasantly warm.  a PM thundershower is possible.
high: 27C (81F)

MONDAY NIGHT: an evening shower/thundershower in the area... then becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and warm.  just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and warm.  chance of thunderstorms... especially late in the day.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: clouds, a few peeks of sun.  good chance of a couple of periods of rain and thunderstorms.
high: 27C (80F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and cooler.  some lingering showers in the area.
high: 25C (77F)

Sunday, May 29, 2011

never dull... (pm.29.may.11)>

there are still a lot of clouds around before sunset this evening, but most of the thundershower activity appears to have either moved out or dissipated.  thunder started rumbling over the dhauladars very early today... around 12:30pm... and continued on and off and on and off until around 4:30pm.  in my rain gauge on tushita road just below the mountaineering center i measured only 0.11" (3mm), just about all of that happened between 3:30 and 4:00pm.  the high temp was 79.2F (26.2C).

despite the lack of any significant disturbance or storm system in the area, mountain thundershowers obviously had no trouble getting going this afternoon.  i haven't heard about any significant rainfall amounts, but the dark clouds and thunder surely kept everyone on their toes throughout the afternoon hours.  the only thing that will change during the next couple of days will be a continuing gradual rise in temperatures... so the afternoon instability will remain, keeping the chance of rumbling thunder and a few showers in the forecast.

a more substantial, organized upper-level disturbance is on the way for wednesday and thursday... and that is going to increase our chances of a round or two of strong storms with significant rainfall.  as the month of june arrives, increasing amounts of moisture come with it, so the temperature and humidity combination will make it feel less comfortable than during the drier days of early and mid may...

SUNDAY NIGHT: diminishing risk of a brief thundershower this evening... then becoming partly cloudy overnight.
low: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly sunny and warmer.  a thundershower possible in the PM.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  warm, with a period of afternoon thundershowers possible.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: good chance of some showers and thunderstorms, otherwise partly cloudy.
high: 28C (82F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 27C (80F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and pleasant.  just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 26C (78F)

*persistent thunder*

4:09pm... we've had a moderate shower here at the top of mcleod ganj, and now some very gusty winds.  thunder/lightning has settled down for the moment.  temp has dropped to 70F.


3:33pm... thunder has been rumbling on and off for about 3 hours, but up to now, there have been only a few sprinkles and very light showers... only enough to wet the bottom of my rain gauge.  looking to the northwest, and glancing at the satellite pics, it appears that we may have a heavier thundershower moving in.  updates to follow, if necessary.

humidity up... (am.29.may.11)>

the temp is 69.1F (20.6C) just before sunrise this morning, under partly cloudy skies.  the satellite photos are showing one lone thundershower in the vicinity of mandi, with other patches of clouds scattered across much of himachal and kashmir.

we're obviously in the midst of a warming trend again... and that will continue for the next two or three days... taking us back close to the warmest temps of the season by mid-week.  you may have also noticed that our humidity is higher now, and that makes it feel a bit more uncomfortable even if temps aren't quite as high.  the overall weather pattern is going to be generally quiet until about wednesday... but the atmosphere will remain marginally unstable (warming at the surface, pockets of cold air aloft), so be aware of the potential for some isolated thundershowers to pop up mainly during the afternoon hours.

it looks like there will be a more substantial upper-level disturbance making an appearance for the latter half of the week, and that will give us a better shot at some significant shower and thunderstorm action, and also cause temperatures to drop just a bit.

**by the way, check out the comment on last night's post (just below) by one of our regular weathergeek readers.  the intense cloud-to-ground lightning late last week torched the old forest rest house up at triund, and also killed hundreds of goats and sheep.  thanks, rishul, for passing along that important info.  lightning strikes on the mountains can be merciless.


SUNDAY: partly sunny and warmer.  scattered PM thundershowers.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: a thundershower in the area this evening??  otherwise partly cloudy and warm.
low: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny, with a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

TUESDAY: sun and a few clouds... warm.  risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy with a better chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 28C (82F)

Saturday, May 28, 2011

clouds vs. sun... (pm.28.may.11)>

it's mostly cloudy about an hour before sunset this evening.  the clouds outperformed the sun for most of the daylight hours today, although we did get enough sunshine to bump the high temp up to 78.1F (25.6C)... which was still a couple of degrees cooler than expected.  despite the occasionally ugly clouds over the mountains this afternoon, there has been no rainfall.

it looks like we're getting into a "roll the dice" weather pattern for the next two or three days, with regard to thunderstorm potential.  the atmosphere is just marginally unstable... but with gradual warming at the surface, and those pesky little pockets of cooler air aloft drifting through, an afternoon thundershower or two can't be ruled out through tuesday.  by wednesday and thursday, thunderstorm chances will be a bit higher... just in time for the arrival of a new month.

temperatures will continue to rise, and with the humidity edging upwards as well, we have a few rather stuffy and uncomfortable nights on the way during the coming week.  ahhhhh... summer.

SATURDAY NIGHT: becoming clear to partly cloudy overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny skies. warmer, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 28C (82F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny and warm.  just a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  warm and rather muggy, with a slight chance again of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy with a better chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  good chance of a few thunderstorms.
high: 28C (82F)

not so wet... (am.28.may.11)>

there are a few clouds around the area at sunrise, with an early morning temp of 65.7F (18.7C).  there has been no more rainfall overnight that i am aware of.  the total for the month currently stands at 2.67" (6.8cm).

satellite photos show a few random patches of clouds across northern parts of both pakistan and india this morning, but no showers or thunderstorms happening anywhere at the moment.  today should not be nearly as active as yesterday, but as the sun gets a chance of warm up the lower layers of the atmosphere, there could still be enough instability to generate a thundershower or two this afternoon into the evening.  actually, this slightly unsettled pattern will remain with us all the way into next week... providing at least a mentionable chance of a shower or storm nearly every day.  otherwise, there will be plenty of sunshine to go around as well.

friday's rains chased the warm temps down the mountain... but that summertime air will be surging back starting today.  expect a gradual warming trend into early next week, as MAY ends pretty close to normal character...

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and pleasantly warm.  a thundershower is possible during the PM.
high: 27C (81F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the area during the evening, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun and a few clouds, with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  warmer...
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and warm.  slight chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy with a couple of thunderstorms possible.
high: 28C (83F)

Friday, May 27, 2011

wettest day of the month... (pm.27.may.11)>

it is turning out to be a very nice evening, after kind of a wild day.  thunderstorms swept through during the pre-dawn hours... there was another round of light to moderate showers during the mid-morning... and then an extended period of thundershowers during the mid-afternoon which delivered an additional 0.58" (1.5cm) of rainfall to the day's total.  records show that we've had the wettest day since the 18th of april.  here are the specs:

high temp: 73.8F (23.2C)
low temp: 61.9F (16.6C)
total rainfall since midnight: 1.08" (2.7cm)

the upper-level disturbance responsible for our very active day of weather was several hours late in arriving, but didn't fail to deliver some much appreciated rainfall and a nice refreshing shot of cooler air.  this system pretty much blew itself out over us this afternoon, and now it looks like we'll see a bit quieter pattern for the next several days.  still, there will be some pockets of instability drifting by, so 20-30% chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain in the forecast right into the middle of next week.  the vast majority of our days will be dry, with plenty of summer sun, but continue to be aware of the thundershower risk.

temperatures will warm up rapidly over the weekend, and stay very close to the late may climatological averages as we wrap up the month and make the transition to june...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies... pleasant temps.
low: 18C (65F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon with a risk of a thundershower.  warming up again.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and warm.  an isolated late-day thundershower?
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  warm, with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a couple of showers and storms.
high: 28C (82F)

showers around... (am.27.may.11)>

*update at 1:36pm... total rainfall since midnight = 0.50" (1.3cm).  thunder rumbling again now.

*update at 8:35am... i have a fresh 0.17" (4mm) of rain during the past 45mins or so.  moderate showers still in progress, but the fog has lifted, at least for now.

*update at 8:05am... since i posted an hour and a half ago, thick fog has rolled in, and we have some steady light to moderate rain showers in progress.  a massive area of showers covers much of himachal, moving very slowly to the east.  temp has dropped back to around 64F (17.8C).  it looks exactly like the middle of monsoon season out there at the moment!

(original early morning posting)...

it's cloudy and 69.5F (20.8C) just before sunrise this morning, with some light rain showers still scattered around the area.  we had a healthy round of thunderstorms move through between about 2:00 and 4:00am, which delivered exactly 0.20" (5mm) of rain here at the top of mcleod ganj.  i'm registering an overnight low temp of 64.2F (17.9C).

satellite photos show us directly underneath the latest in a series of upper-level disturbances moving through the western himalayan region... stirring up a fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms across punjab and himachal pradesh.  this activity will likely fizzle out this morning as it moves to the east, but we could see yet another round or two of showers and storms develop later today into this evening, after a little sunshine gets a chance to warm things up and destabilize the atmosphere again.

this system will have moved east of us by tomorrow... but a rather disturbed flow aloft is expected to continue through the weekend into next week.  this is very much a normal pattern for this time of year, with warming temps at the surface and just enough relatively colder air in the upper-levels to keep a chance of a thunderstorm in the forecast on just about any afternoon/evening...

FRIDAY: clouds alternating with a few peeks of sunshine.  not as warm, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 24C (75F) *revised*

FRIDAY NIGHT: an evening thunderstorm possible... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.  warm, with an isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: warm with lots of sun.  only a slight chance of a PM storm.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... a better chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

Thursday, May 26, 2011

temporarily calm... (pm.26.may.11)>

we have nearly 100% sunny skies early this evening, after only a brief build-up of big cumulus clouds and isolated thundershowers over the mountains during the afternoon.  i recorded a (slightly warmer than expected) high temp of 84.0F (28.9C).  i'm also pretty surprised that we haven't had any shower or thunderstorm action yet today.

it looks like our next upper-level disturbance is running several hours behind schedule... which allowed us the drier and warmer than expected weather today.  satellite and computer model data continue to indicate an increasingly unstable airmass developing during the next 12 to 24 hours, so thunderstorms could erupt rapidly overnight into friday, with little advance warning.  it would be wise to be prepared for rapidly changing weather if you plan to be out and about, away from shelter.

although we will likely get some good stretches of sunshine and smooth sailing from the weekend into early next week, our weather pattern will remain a bit on the unstable side... with warm temps at the surface, and little ripples of energy and colder air aloft drifting through.  that means we'll probably still get hit with random mainly afternoon and overnight thunderstorms right through the forecast period.  i think most of us would agree that each and every shower or storm is a welcome summertime relief, and a boon to our water supply.

THURSDAY NIGHT: clear early... but thunderstorms are a good possibility late.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies, with just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and warmer, with a random PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: sunshine, a few clouds, chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)

sun and storms... (am.26.may.11)>

skies are clear just before sunrise this morning, with a comfortable temp of 70.2F (21.2C) to start the day.  all of the thundershower action from early last night has totally dissipated, but we were left with a rainfall total of 0.16" (4mm)... all of which occurred between about 2:30pm and 10:00pm.

we're in the midst of a series of upper-level disturbances moving through the western himalayan region... and it looks like the next one is on the way for later today through friday.  scattered showers and thunderstorms are already evident on the satellite pics across much of afghanistan and the central and northern parts of pakistan, a sign of what we can look forward to during the next 24 to 36 hours.  again, due to limited moisture, it will be tough for us to get heavy rainfall... but the unstable atmosphere and energy aloft will be enough to stir up some rather noisy thunderstorms, with dangerous lightning and gusty winds.  be aware and prepared if you  plan to be away from shelter!

storm chances will diminish somewhat by the weekend, as temperatures resume their warm-up... but still isolated to widely scattered thundershowers could pop up mainly during the afternoon hours.  all in all, it looks like a fairly normal pre-monsoon weather pattern...

THURSDAY: morning sun... becoming partly to mostly cloudy by afternoon, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 28C (82F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: a few showers and thunderstorms in the area, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of a couple of thunderstorms.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and slightly warmer.  an isolated thunderstorm possible.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: sun and a few clouds... slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 29C (85F)

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

kinda rowdy... (pm.25.may.11)>

a cloudy evening in progress, with more thunderstorms lurking.  what a day... it was sunny and warm until early afternoon, when clouds thickened, thunder rumbled, and some wicked cloud-to-ground lightning zapped the area for about a half hour.  we did get a brief shower, but it only amounted to 0.08" (2mm) at my place.  the high temp was 84.0F (28.9C), which occurred during the noon hour.  we actually dropped to 68.2F (20.1F) around 2:45pm during the shower, but the temp quickly rebounded.

the first in a series of upper-level disturbances is affecting us now, and will keep us under the gun for potential thundershowers overnight.  there is actually another large area of showers and storms to our northwest which could drift in soon, if it holds together.  then... disturbances number 2 and number 3 will move through between tomorrow and saturday, bringing us yet more opportunities for thunder and some rainfall.  as i've been mentioning, we have a serious lack of moisture available... so rainfall amounts shouldn't be very heavy, despite the noisy thunder and gusty winds from time to time.

in between showers and storms, there will still be a good bit of sunshine, along with fairly typical late may temperatures... so be prepared for storminess, but expect a few hours of nice weather as well.  by sunday, things will calm down again, and temperatures will creep upward.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies, with more showers and thunderstorms in the area.
low: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: alternating clouds and sun, with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 28C (82F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  good chance of a couple of thundershowers.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny and warm.  a thundershower is possible.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny skies... just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

MONDAY: plenty of sunshine... warm temps.
high: 29C (85F)

thunder risk returns... (am.25.may.11)>

it's hazy with patches of high clouds across the area just before sunrise.  the early morning temp is 72.3F (22.4C) in the upper part of town.  our clouds this morning are the remains of showers and thunderstorms which died out over central pakistan overnight.

after two totally dry and thunderless days, the chance of showers and storms re-enters the forecast today.  there is no strong, well organized storm system moving in, but instead, there will be a series of relatively weak upper-level disturbances drifting through between now and the weekend.  instability will be on the rise this afternoon into tomorrow, leading to the development of some hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms.  just as we saw last weekend, there isn't a lot of moisture to work with... so we may again experience more thunder and gusty winds than significant rainfall.  in between the action, there should still be some nice periods of sunshine throughout the remainder of the week.

temperatures have warmed up again during the past 24 hours or so and except during periods of rain, will stay seasonably warm for the next several days at least.  climatologically speaking, the next 15 to 20 days are typically the warmest of the year in mcleod ganj...

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and warm.  a shower or thunderstorm is possible... especially during the PM hours.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: chance of a couple of thunderstorms in the area, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy... still a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm, with a slight chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

some bumps ahead... (pm.24.may.11)>

there is haze, and there are a few high clouds in the area just past sunset this evening.  today's high temp was (a much warmer) 84.2F (29.0C), with a sunny morning and a hazy and partly cloudy afternoon.  we've now had two days in a row with zero thunder and zero rain.

...but that is likely to change during the next day or so.  tonight's satellite photos show a huge explosion of thunderstorms to our west across central pakistan, thanks to the first in a series of upper-level disturbances moving in for the latter half of the week.  things have been very stable since late sunday night, but colder air arriving in the upper atmosphere, combined with continued warming at the surface is going to put us back in an increasingly unstable situation effective immediately.  there's not enough moisture available for heavy rainfall, but i do expect us to see increasing chances of thundery conditions, gusty winds and some decent showers for the rest of the week.  please keep that in mind as you make your outdoor plans.

it was very nice to have a few nights of pleasant temperatures, but now we're back into the warmth of summer which should remain with us right through the forecast period.  with this pattern, i don't see much chance of returning to the coolish weather we enjoyed saturday night through monday.  the thick of the north indian summer is upon us...

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and rather warm.  chance of a thunderstorm moving through.
low: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and very warm, with a thunderstorm possible.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: good chance of a couple of shower and thunderstorms, otherwise partly sunny.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun with a period of thunderstorms possible.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: still a chance of thunderstorms, with partly cloudy skies.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny with only a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

another good one... (am.24.may.11)>

clear skies before sunrise... the early morning low has been a comfortable 67.1F (19.5C) here at the top of mcleod ganj.

quiet weather prevails across all of northern india again this morning, as we continue to enjoy the effects of a weak ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  these stable conditions should continue for another day and a half before a new series of disturbances aloft start to destabilize the atmosphere again... leading to a good chance of some thunderstorm action.  right now, i'd put the best chance of storms on thursday, but honestly... any time between mid-day wednesday and saturday there is a pretty good potential for something to pop up.

temperatures will be on the rise both today and tomorrow... but the increasing chance of showers and storms will stifle that warming trend for the latter part of the week.  still, we'll remain in the ballpark of "normal" for the final week of may.

TUESDAY: a sunny morning, then a few mountain clouds in the PM.  warmer...
high: 28C (83F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear, mild.
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm, with a chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies, with a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with a risk of a thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)

Monday, May 23, 2011

back to warm... (pm.23.may.11)>

i'm not sure how a day could be much closer to perfection...  lots of sunshine, only a few afternoon clouds over the mountains, and a very comfortable high temp of 79.9F (26.6C).

what a difference from the last three days.  the satellite perspective this evening shows absolutely nothing happening across pakistan and the northern half of india, as high pressure builds in again, providing a stable airmass for a couple of days.  temperatures recovered quite a bit across the plains of northern india today, and even more dramatic warming will occur tomorrow into wednesday, before the next series of upper-level disturbances arrive for the latter part of the week.

we are way way below the normal rainfall for the month of may, but it looks like shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase again starting late wednesday, and continuing into the weekend.  once again, there won't be any all-day rains... but the atmosphere will become unstable enough to cause a few intense thunderstorms to erupt, especially during the afternoon and overnight hours.  be prepared for that if you plan to be roaming in the mountains.

MONDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear.  not as cool as last night.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: lots of sunshine... warming up.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.  chance of a thunderstorm by late afternoon.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny skies... good chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a period of thunderstorms possible.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny.  still warm, with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

exceptional... (am.23.may.11)>

we have clear skies, and a coolish temp of 64.0F (17.8C) before sunrise this morning.  nice to get some comfortable sleeping weather again, even if it will be short-lived.  we've had no additional rainfall since last evening, but the total from friday afternoon through sunday night stands at 0.58" (1.5cm).

the cooler weather ushered in by weekend rain and storms has been very welcome and much appreciated but unfortunately, it won't last.  today will still be relatively comfortable, but very warm air will be surging back into the area as the week goes on, so both afternoon highs and early morning lows will be on the rise again.  our weekend storm system is pretty much out of the picture now... being replaced by a ridge of high pressure aloft, which will be responsible for the warming trend, and for shutting down rain chances for a couple of days.

by late wednesday, the first in a series of new disturbances in the upper-atmosphere will drift through, giving us an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day during the last half of the week.

MONDAY: sunshine this morning, with a few clouds and a slight chance of a mountain thundershower this afternoon.  comfortably warm.
high: 27C (80F)

MONDAY NIGHT: becoming clear.  not quite as cool.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and warming up.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm, with a chance of a thunderstorm by late PM.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy with a good chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a chance of a thunderstorm or two.  very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

Sunday, May 22, 2011

lingering showers... (pm.22.may.11)>

today's high: 77.0F (25.0C)
today's low: 61.1F (16.2C)
rainfall since midnight: 0.34" (9mm)*
rainfall since friday: 0.58" (1.5cm)*
total rainfall for MAY: 1.42" (3.6cm)*

*updated at 9:36pm... additional 0.10" (2.5mm) since original post.

we have that strange mix of dark clouds and thunder over the mountains, a few light showers, and also some sunshine early this evening.  our persistent upper-level disturbance remains overhead, and has made for a day alternating between clouds and sun, showers and thunder.  our low temperature actually occurred around 11am, during this morning's thunderstorm.

all of north india is celebrating the cooler temps last night and today... as rain and thunderstorms have been widespread from himachal and punjab to delhi and beyond... providing a reprieve from the 42-44C (107-112F) temps of the past few days.

the risk of showers and storms will continue this evening, but then should diminish rapidly overnight and monday, as the atmosphere begins to stabilize once again.  high pressure aloft will gradually build into the area this week... allowing temps to rebound from chilly to very warm by wednesday.  we should get at least a couple of totally dry days during the coming week, but little ripples of energy aloft will make thundershower chances worth mentioning again by late wednesday.  unfortunately, this month is running well below normal in terms of rainfall... and we don't stand a very good chance of catching up during the next 9 days.

SUNDAY NIGHT: thundershowers ending... with clearing skies.  rather cool.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: just a slight chance of a lingering shower... otherwise mostly sunny and comfortably warm.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: lots of sunshine... warming up.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and warm with a better chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... very warm, with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

natural A/C... (am.22.may.11)>

there are lots of leftover high, thin clouds around the area before sunrise this morning, with a current temp of 68.4F (20.2C).  i recorded a low temp of 62.2F (16.8C), in the midst of a thundershower that delivered 0.08" (2mm) of rainfall during the wee hours of the morning.  a massive area of showers and thunderstorms moved across northern india overnight, giving at least some rain to just about all of punjab, himachal, harayana, uttar anchal and even the delhi metro area.  it looks like the heaviest rain fell (more than 0.40"/1cm) across much of punjab, northern haryana and the southern part of himachal.  chandigarh is just now reporting 1.5cm (0.60").

is there more on the way?  the upper-level disturbance responsible for the off-and-on showers and storms we've been dodging since friday will remain in the area through this evening, keeping things unsettled for another 12-18 hours or so.  already there are new thunderstorms erupting in east-central pakistan, just to the west of amritsar, which could be an indication of what we can expect as the day goes on.  so far, here in mcleod, we've only received 0.32" (8mm) of rain since noon friday, so it would be nice if we could double that.

by monday, the atmosphere should settle down, as high pressure attempts to re-establish itself from the surface into the upper-levels... that should effectively diminish our rain chances for a few days, and allow temperatures to rebound from these pleasantly mild conditions we're enjoying now.

SUNDAY: mostly sunny early AM, then increasing clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms.  pleasantly cool temps.
high: 25C (77F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: risk of a few showers and storms, mainly before midnight.  otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY: just a slight chance of a lingering shower, otherwise becoming mostly sunny.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: lots of sunshine... warming up again.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly sunny and warm, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 29C (85F)

Saturday, May 21, 2011

*STORM UPDATE*

5:33am... mostly cloudy and 67F (19.4C).  rainfall overnight measures 0.08" (2mm).

12:30am... it is foggy, with some thunder, lightning and light rain.  satellite indicates a huge area of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving through northern india, and we do indeed seem to be on the northern edge.  temp has dropped to 68.5F (20.3C), and rainfall intensity is increasing.

8:48pm... i've been glued to the satellite data for the past few hours, watching thunderstorms develop to our west.  right now, there is a huge area of thunderstorms that has consolidated across east-central pakistan and punjab.  the upper-level winds are steering all of this to the east... which means that we could catch the northern edge tonight after about 10-11pm or so.  there is also a chance that it could slip just to our south.  at any rate, it looks like a very stormy night all over punjab and at least the southern 2/3 of himachal pradesh.

YOUR COMPLETE FORECAST BELOW...

storms lurk... (pm.21.may.11)>

a very pleasant evening in progress, with partly cloudy skies and a temp of 76F (24.4C), after an early afternoon high of 82.9F (28.3C).  there was a 45 minute period late this afternoon when the sky was looking really ominous... dark, with some thunder and lightning... otherwise it has actually been a very nice day.  although showers and thunderstorms have been scattered all over northern pakistan and northern india today, we've managed to escape any measurable rainfall (so far).

currently, there are some big clusters of thunderstorms to our west... but they appear to be "hit and miss", so we'll have to see if any of them hold together and target our area later tonight.  if we do catch one, we'll see a repeat of what happened last night... lots of thunder and lightning, very gusty winds, and perhaps a third to a half inch (0.7-1.0cm) of rain.

if we don't get it tonight, then we have another good chance of a hefty round of showers and storms tomorrow into tomorrow night, as the center of this latest upper-level disturbance moves through.  i'd put the probability at 60-70% of more showers and storms before this system exits to the east early monday.  then... a period of more settled weather will move in for much of next week, along with temperatures returning to near or slightly above normal for the latter part of may...

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy, with some rain and thunderstorms overnight.  pleasant temps.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.  cooler.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies, with only a slight chance of a lingering shower.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and a bit warmer.
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: lots of sunshine... warmer.
high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  a PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (85F)

collision zone... (am.21.may.11)>

it is partly cloudy at sunrise, with a temp of 70.3F (21.3C).  total rainfall during the past 24 hours has been 0.23" (6mm)... most of that happened between 7:30 and 8:30pm last night.  there was more thunder rumbling around overnight, but no measurable rain after about 9:00pm.  there are still some fizzling scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern india, but we're dodging the action for the moment.

we will likely see more stormy weather during the next 36-48 hours as a vigorous upper-level disturbance slowly moves through northern india.  we are witnessing a collision of airmasses... with hot, sultry air just to our south, and much cooler air from the higher altitudes of central asia trying to slide in from the north.  this battle zone will be the focus for the development of more showers and thunderstorms from time to time, all the way into sunday evening, and i'm fairly confident of getting another half inch (1cm) or more by then.  of course there is the third and final IPL cricket match (punjab kings XI vs. deccan chargers) scheduled for 4pm this afternoon at HPCA stadium in dharamsala...  i think there is a good chance we'll have storms in the area at that time, so delays are possible.

in addition to hopefully picking up some much-needed rainfall, we'll also be able to enjoy some slightly cooler temperatures for the next couple of days.  in fact, today and tomorrow could feature the coolest high temps of the past two weeks.  but don't get used to it, because the heat will be gradually returning next week...

SATURDAY: parly sunny skies, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.  not as warm.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a few showers and thunderstorms likely, otherwise partly cloudy and cooler.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY: still a good chance of thundershowers in the area.  pleasant temps, with a mix of clouds and sun.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy with only a slight chance of a pm shower.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: plenty of sunshine... warm.
high: 29C (84F)

Friday, May 20, 2011

*HAPPENING NOW*

9:05pm... it's really windy up here, but the rain has stopped for the moment.  temp has risen back up to 75.7F (24.3C).  my total rainfall for the day is 0.23" (6mm).

8:33pm... just checked the rain gauge and am very surprised (and happy) to see 0.19" (5mm) has accumulated during the last hour and a half or so.  more than i expected.  still some light rain falling... but things seem to have calmed down for now.

7:55pm... the rain is still light, but gusty winds continue, along with occasional thunder and lightning.  my temp has dropped to 68F (20C).  the coolest up here in exactly one week.

7:32pm... natural air conditioning.  a very large area of thundershowers continues to develop to our northwest, moving into the western half of himachal pradesh.  i have light rain, occasional thunder and lightning and wind gusts of 45mph (72kph) here.  no power at the moment.

SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LATEST FORECAST...

threatening skies... (pm.20.may.11)>

quite a variety of weather today so far... we had a good amount of sunshine which boosted us to a high temp of 82.6F (28.1C) during the late morning... followed by a period of showers without thunder during the noon hour... followed by a period of thunder without showers during the mid-afternoon.  now, during the hour before sunset, we have angry-looking skies, with more thundershowers in the vicinity.  i measured just 0.04" (1mm) from our mid-day showers.

the satellite view this evening shows two large clusters of thundershowers in the area... one just to our east, and one just to our northwest.  as our anticipated upper-level disturbance approaches, i expect the coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms to increase; and it still looks like the best chance of some significant rainfall will occur between now and sunday evening.  it won't rain all weekend... there will still be periods of sunshine... but be aware of the increased shower/storm potential.  temperatures this afternoon have already dropped, and we can look forward to less heat throughout the weekend.  it could be touch and go for the IPL cricket match between the punjab kings XI and the deccan chargers late tomorrow afternoon, with the thunderstorm threat.

there will be a resurgence of generally dry and warmer weather starting on monday.  in fact, temperatures will probably rebound fully by the middle of next week.

FRIDAY NIGHT: showers and thunderstorms in the area (gusty winds, too)... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and cooler.
low: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and not as warm, with a good chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
low: 19C (66F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with another round of thundershowers possible.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warmer... with just a slight chance of a brief PM shower.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 28C (83F)

WEDNESDAY: warm, with lots of sun.  a late-day thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

weekend action... (am.20.may.11)>

it's hazy, with just a few clouds around at sunrise this morning.  the early morning low temp has been 74.1F (23.4C)... the warmest of the year.  it has definitely been rather uncomfortable sleeping weather for a few nights now.

we're awaiting some changes during the coming 24-36 hours which will include a better and better chance of some thunderstorms, along with a bit of a drop in temperatures.  cooling in the upper atmosphere is underway already, and we're still watching a fairly strong upper-level disturbance which will drop southeastward through northern india on saturday and sunday.  it's a rather complicated weather pattern, but the bottom line is this: we should see some decent thunderstorm activity, especially between late today and sunday, AND we will likely get a brief shot of some cooler air.  unfortunately, we're lacking the moisture needed for heavy rainfall, so at this point, i don't expect more than about a half inch (1cm) or so.  let's see if that changes.

by monday, things will start to calm down again... with lots of sun and temps on the rise into the middle of next week.  only five weeks til the potential onset of the monsoon!

FRIDAY: hazy sunshine mixed with clouds.  increasing chance of a thunderstorm as the day goes on.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: a couple of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity.
low: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of a period or two of thunderstorms.  not as warm.
high: 27C (80F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of a couple of showers or thundershowers.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... slight chance of a lingering shower.
high: 27C (81F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and warming up.
high: 28C (83F)

Thursday, May 19, 2011

begging for rain... (pm.19.may.11)>

clouds from mountain thundershowers are obscuring the sky before sunset this evening.  today was the second warmest day of the year, with a high temp of 86.2F (30.1C) recorded at the top of mcleod ganj just below the mountaineering center.  satellite photos show scattered thundershowers from southwest kashmir through himachal and uttar anchal... but we've managed to avoid them so far.

this evening we are on the brink of a turn to some slightly cooler weather for a few days.  temperatures in the upper atmosphere continue to cool down... little by little... as our recent giant dome of high pressure collapses.  this will keep a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast right through sunday.  a fairly potent upper-level disturbance will swing through here late friday through sunday, so i'm thinking that will be the best "window of opportunity" for some significant rainfall.  unfortunately, that coincides with the third and final IPL cricket match (saturday afternoon/evening)... it could be a bit dicey.

i am hearing about water problems all over the place recently... which is kind of surprising, considering the massive snow pack we've had to work with from winter/spring snows.  anyway... a half-inch or so of rain would be very welcome.  then, by monday and tuesday, rain chances will diminish again, as temps rebound.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of a thundershower.
low: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny and not quite as warm, with a couple of showers or a thunderstorm possible.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies... a good chance of a period or two of thunderstorms.  pleasant temps.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: a lingering shower or thundershower in the area... otherwise partly cloudy and nice.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warming up again.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and warm.
high: 28C (83F)

a sunny start... (am.19.may.11)>

we have 100% clear skies before sunrise, and our early morning low temp has been 72.3F (22.4C).  the satellite view currently shows calm and quiet weather across all of northern india, although there is a large cluster of thundershowers engulfing about the western half of nepal.

expect another very warm day today, before things start to cool down a bit as we head into the weekend.  our giant bubble of high pressure aloft has been weakening gradually since tuesday, and will further break down between now and sunday.  colder air is filtering in in the upper atmosphere, and a couple of fairly strong upper-level disturbances are forecast to drop southeastward out of central asia.  all of this means that we will see better and better chances of scattered thunderstorms over the next few days... and i wouldn't be surprised to see a period of fierce storminess sometime between friday afternoon and sunday.  the limiting factor is the lack of deep, rich low-level moisture... which should keep rainfall amounts relatively light (perhaps less than a half inch).

the hottest weather of the year continues just down the hill... with high temps still reaching 40C (104F) and above, across virtually all of northern india below 1000m/3300ft.  however, if the showers and storms materialize this weekend, there will be significant relief for at least a couple of days...

THURSDAY: lots of morning sunshine... but becoming partly cloudy in the PM, with a chance of a thundershower or two.  very warm.
high: 30C (86F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: thunderstorms possible before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies, with a period of showers and thunderstorms possible.  not quite as warm.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: still a good chance of a period or two of showers and storms.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with pleasant temps.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  just a slight chance of a shower.
high: 28C (82F)

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

rainless thunder... (pm.18.may.11)>

right on cue, thunder rumbled from about 2:20pm until 5:00pm, but as far as i know, there has been not so much as a sprinkle of rain in mcleod ganj.  we saw a good amount of sun this morning into the very early afternoon, which boosted our high temp to 84.4F (29.1C)according to my records, today is the 10th day in a row with a high temp of 80F or above.

satellite photos this evening show quite a few thundershowers along the front ranges of the himalayas, but it seems that most of the action has remained in the higher elevations so far.  we could still catch a shower or some thunder overnight... and then reload and repeat the scenario tomorrow.  temperatures in the upper atmosphere have been gradually cooling for the past 24 hours or so, while surface temps remain very warm.  that's what creates an unstable airmass... which leads to scattered showers and storms.

we're still watching a potent upper-level disturbance which should move through here late friday and saturday.  it will cause our temps to drop a few degrees, and also give us a better chance of some significant rainfall in addition to thunder and gusty winds.  it's still a long way off... but i am a little worried about conditions for the third and final IPL cricket match in dharamsala on saturday afternoon/evening.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a thundershower or two.
low: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and still warm.  a thundershower is possible, mainly during the PM.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY: a mix of haze, clouds and sun, with a couple of showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies... not as warm.  good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: risk of a lingering shower or thundershower, otherwise partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 27C (80F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warming up again.
high: 28C (83F)

summer volatility... (am.18.may.11)>

we have partly cloudy skies just before sunrise this morning, with a temp of 72.3F (22.4C).  despite the 8 hours of nearly continuous thunder, lightning and gusty winds yesterday afternoon and evening, we only managed 0.12" (3mm) of rain... most of that occurring between 4:30 and 5:00pm.  it really was a bizarre evening up here in mcleod... but just down the hill at the HPCA stadium in dharamsala, the IPL cricket match went on without interruption.

last evening's thunderstorms didn't do much to chase away the heat, judging by this morning's temperatures.  and it looks like it will remain very warm for another couple of days before a dramatic change in the overall weather pattern takes place.  there will still be a chance of an eruption of afternoon/evening thundershowers today and tomorrow... thanks to the growing instability and sheer thermodynamic energy in the atmosphere.  but, by friday, we'll add a rather vigorous upper-level disturbance to the mix, which will increase the probability of getting some substantial rainfall (instead of just thunder and wind).  still... we're lacking deep, rich moisture to work with, so we'll see what kind of rainfall amounts we can muster this weekend.

sunshine through haze/some clouds will still do the trick in boosting temps well into the 80sF (near 30C) today and tomorrow, but then we may actually dip below normal for this time of year... especially on saturday and sunday.

WEDNESDAY: a mix of haze, sun and clouds.  chance of a thundershower this afternoon.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a risk of a thundershower.
low: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny, hazy and warm.  a period of thundershowers possible.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms.  rather mild.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: still a chance of a thundershower or two... otherwise partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 27C (80F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warming up again.
high: 28C (83F)

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

temporary relief... (pm.17.may.11)>

it was nice to receive a gift of a hefty thundershower this afternoon which, although it only delivered 0.11" (3mm) of rain, did manage to temporarily chase away some of the haze and cool things off just a bit.  it is still mostly cloudy about an hour before sunset.. with a few lingering areas of showers and rumbles of thunder around.  today's high temp reached 85.1F (29.5C).

today is a perfect example of the practical reality of the "any given day" principle.  during the late spring and early summertime in the himalayas, the perfect combination of surface heat and a bit of cold air and weak circulation in the upper atmosphere can touch off a thundershower... on any given day.  we'll have to wait for the weekend to receive more substantial rainfall, but this afternoon's action was a welcome preview.

as the week goes on, there is going to be a more significant shift in the overall weather pattern.  temperatures will be cooling down aloft, as our recent massive ridge of high pressure breaks down.  it will take a couple of more days before our temps here at the surface cool off much... so the resulting instability (battle of cool vs warm air) will give us at least a mentionable chance of a thunderstorm every day.

the punjab kings XI host the royal challengers bangalore tonight at 8PM in dharamsala at the HPCA stadium.  millions of viewers will be tuning in, so let's hope the weather continues to improve this evening!

TUESDAY NIGHT: evening thundershowers winding down... then partly cloudy overnight.
low: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  very warm, with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 30C (86F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sunshine, haze and clouds, with a risk of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy with a couple of showers and thunderstorms possible.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  not so warm... with a good chance of a period or two of showers/thunderstorms.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.  still a risk of a random thundershower.
high: 27C (80F)

hazy heat... (am.17.may.11)>

it's another warm morning... my low temp has only been 74.7F (23.7C) during this hour prior to sunrise.  skies are hazy, with a some patches of high clouds around.

it looks like we're in line for another day or two with temperatures trying to rise higher than they've been this year, as this unusually warm month of may continues.  we still have a broad and sprawling area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere dominating the weather pattern... but there is evidence that it is going to be breaking down by the latter part of the week, which will bring some changes.  the first thing that will happen is that colder air will start filtering in aloft, which will make things more and more unstable, leading to an increasing chance of a thunderstorm or two.  secondly, temperatures at the surface will cool off just a few degrees as we approach the weekend.

the haze has been thickening day by day due to this stagnant airmass, but a round or two of showers and thunderstorms will do wonders in cleaning things up.  right now, i think the best chance of rain is going to hold off until the weekend, but an isolated thundershower or two is not out of the question... even by late this afternoon.

the second IPL cricket match will be tonight at 8PM at HPCA stadium in dharamsala.  skies should be partly cloudy and hazy with a temp of around 90F (32C) for the coin toss and start of the match between the punjab kings XI and the bangalore royal challengers.

TUESDAY: partly sunny, hazy and very warm.  an isolated thundershower is possible this afternoon.
high: 31C (88F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: slight chance of a thundershower in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy and warm.
low: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun, haze and a few clouds.  still very warm, with a risk of a thundershower.
high: 31C (87F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and hazy, with a chance of a thunderstorm at some point.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and not as warm.  a thunderstorm or two possible.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 27C (80F)

Monday, May 16, 2011

peaking... (pm.16.may.11)>

today has probably been the haziest day of the season, and also the warmest.  about an hour before sunset, we have hazy sunshine, a few clouds over the mountains, and the temp slowly dropping from an afternoon high of 86.5F (30.3C).  according to my records, this is the first 30C+ temp of the year.

the clouds tried hard to build over the mountains this afternoon, but it is now so warm in the upper atmosphere, that there just isn't enough instability to fire up much thundershower activity.  still... the satellite view this evening shows evidence of some isolated convection over the higher peaks from kashmir and himachal into uttar anchal.  today the haze really thickened up... it was really bad for most of the afternoon, restricting the visibility in all directions.  this is typical during this kind of weather pattern, as dust, smoke and other pollutants are virtually trapped.  at this point, the only solution to the problem is rain.

...and speaking of rain... the chances will remain slim for another day or two.  however, by the latter part of the week, our giant dome of high pressure is going to collapse, thanks to much colder air filtering in aloft.  this scenario will increase our shower and thunderstorm potential day by day.  in fact, by late friday and saturday, we stand a good chance to get some significant rainfall, and perhaps a  period of rowdy thunderstorms.  in the meantime, the heat is on...

MONDAY NIGHT: fair to partly cloudy and warm.
low: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: very warm again... with hazy sunshine and a few clouds.
high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and hazy, with a shower or thundershower possible.
high: 31C (87F)

THURSDAY: a mix of hazy sunshine and clouds, with a risk of a thundershower.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: haze, sun and clouds.  chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  not as warm.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 27C (80F)

warmer and warmer... (am.16.may.11)>

it is a balmy 73.9F (23.3C) before sunrise this morning, with clear skies.  that temperature is the warmest early morning low of the season.

a massive dome of high pressure dominates the weather pattern from the arabian peninsula into central and south asia.  temperatures are very warm from the surface into the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, and will stay that way for the next three days at least.  the warmest weather of 2011 is expected all across northern india between now and wednesday... with widespread oppressive heat (42C/107F+)  just to our south on the plains.  the good news is that humidity remains very low... so although our temps will be close to the warmest they ever get around here, at least the air will be pleasantly dry.

as i am constantly mentioning, isolated mountain thundershowers can occur on just about any given afternoon during this time of year... but significant rainfall is highly unlikely for a few days.  that will change by the end of the week, as a rather potent upper-level disturbance slices into our dome of high pressure, increasing the instability factor and bringing a better chance of some thunderstorms.  more on that as the week goes on...

MONDAY: very warm with hazy sunshine.  a few clouds over the mountains in the PM.
high: 31C (87F)

MONDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy and warm.
low: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny, hazy and very warm.
high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny with a small chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 31C (87F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny... an isolated late-day thunderstorm possible.
high: 30C (86F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and not quite as warm, with a chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 28C (82F)

Sunday, May 15, 2011

dharamsala shines... (pm.15.may.11)>

skies are partly cloudy just before sunset this evening, after a high temp of 85.6F (29.8C), which matches last thursday's warmest temperature of 2011.  it's been a great day for the millions of television cricket viewers to tune in and see what a beautiful place this is!

despite the sunshine for most of the day, a couple of tenacious thundershowers developed along the higher peaks of the mountains from kashmir and himachal into uttar anchal this afternoon... proof that even with this kind of fair and generally stable weather pattern, the chance of rain is never 0% this time of year.   nevertheless, the chance of showers and storms is very low here in the vicinity of mcleod ganj for the next couple of days, as high pressure continues to strengthen in the upper atmosphere.  temperatures should continue to slowly rise as well, most likely peaking on tuesday or wednesday.

by the middle of the week, the upper-air pattern will shift a bit, and that will allow a moderately strong disturbance to drop southeastward into northern india.  the chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two will increase by friday, as temperatures drop back closer to normal for this time of year.

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy this evening... then becoming clear overnight.  rather warm.
low: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: very warm with hazy sunshine in the morning, and a few mountain clouds during the afternoon.
high: 31C (87F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and hazy... warmest day of the year.
high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun, haze and a few clouds.  an isolated PM thundershower is possible.
high: 31C (87F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny with a slight chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms around, otherwise partly cloudy.  not quite as warm.
high: 28C (82F)

mid-point of may... (am.15.may.11)>

it is 70.0F (21.1C) before sunrise this morning, with clear skies and some light haze.  the view from space shows clear skies across all of pakistan and northern india.

as we approach the mid-point of may, i am noticing that we've only received 0.73" (1.9cm) of rainfall, and we've just had four days with a high temp below 80F (26.7C).  that means that so far, the month of may is running drier and warmer than normal.  and it looks like that trend will continue.

a massive, sprawling area of summer-time high pressure in the upper atmosphere will dominate our weather pattern for the next 3-4 days... featuring sunshine and very warm temperatures.  the dust, smoke and pollution has become trapped again, so haze will thicken again as the heat builds.  other than a random, rogue thundershower over the mountains during the afternoon hours, there is very little chance of any rainfall until about the middle of the week.  an upper-level disturbance may "flatten" our high pressure ridge starting on wednesday, leading to some instability and an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the latter part of the week.  i think we have definitely reached the point where some rainfall would be very welcome.

brace yourself for the warmest temps of the season between now and wednesday... even overnight lows will be less merciful.  but this is it, folks... mid-may to mid-june usually tends to be the warmest stretch of the year in mcleod.

the punjab kings XI host the delhi daredevils at HPCA stadium in dharamsala at 4PM.  the temperature for the coin toss and the start of the match should be around 35C (95F), with hazy sunshine.

SUNDAY: hazy sunshine, very warm.  just a few PM clouds over the mountains.
high: 30C (86F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.  a warm night.
low: 22C (71F)

MONDAY: sunshine, haze and heat.
high: 31C (87F)

TUESDAY: warmest day of the week?  sunshine and haze.
high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  slight chance of a late-day thunderstorm.
high: 31C (87F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy skies, with a couple of showers and thunderstorms possible.
high: 29C (85F)

Saturday, May 14, 2011

hospitality agenda... (pm.14.may.11)>

skies are mostly clear just before sunset this evening.  there has been lots and lots of sunshine today, with just a moderate build-up of clouds over the mountains this afternoon, and a couple of isolated thundershowers over in lauhal and spiti.  i recorded a high temp of 83.8F (28.8C).

the media and celebrity circus that accompanies India Premiere League cricket has started... and when the dharamsala area is showcased on nationwide television tomorrow afternoon for the first of three local matches, things should be looking good.  a very calm and quiet upper-air pattern continues to develop from the arabian peninsula to the western himalayas... providing lots of sunshine, summertime warmth, and very little chance of any significant rainfall.  of course every afternoon holds the potential for the development of a rogue thundershower over the mountain peaks, but it doesn't look like any of that action would make it down here to where we live, until perhaps the middle of next week.

temperatures will continue to warm up over the course of the next few days... likely surpassing 30C (86F) here in mcleod.  i think we can call it HOT down at the cricket stadium, where afternoon highs should be in excess of 35C (95F) throughout the week.  by the way, computer models are forecasting 43C (109F) for kangra on tuesday and wednesday!  we'll see if that turns out to be true...

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly clear...mild.
low: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: sunny in the morning... a few mountain clouds during the PM.  very warm.
high: 30C (86F)

MONDAY: very warm, with hazy sunshine.
high: 31C (87F)

TUESDAY: summertime warmth... hazy sun and a few clouds.
high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy with a chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 31C (87F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm possible.
high: 29C (85F)

cricket fever... (am.14.may.11)>

*scroll down just below this post for info on the recent blogger outage that affected access/updates to blogspot sites*

getting caught up... showers and a few thunderstorms were scattered all across the western himalayas and the plains of pakistan and northern india thursday night through friday evening.  all we got out of the deal was a period of thunder, gusty winds and some sprinkles during the wee hours of friday morning, and then a sprinkle or two in the upper part of town friday afternoon.  but temperatures did drop a few degrees for all of us.  recent stats:

friday morning low: 67.6C (19.8C)
friday afternoon high: 80.8F (27C.1C)
precipitation: TRACE

we have clear skies and a mild temp of 68.6F (20.3C) just before sunrise on this saturday morning.  current satellite photos show a cluster of thundershowers way down between delhi and agra... but nothing at all happening over himalayan north india.

with a few showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity yesterday, it was nice to enjoy some slightly cooler temps.  unfortunately, that break will be short-lived, as the mercury starts climbing again today.  the strongest and broadest area of high pressure aloft of this spring/summer season is developing now from afghanistan and pakistan into northern india.  temperatures will warm in all levels of the atmosphere... leading to relatively stable conditions for a few days.  that means: plenty of sunshine, very low chances of rain, increasing haze and rising temperatures.  remember, as always, it is wise to be prepared for a sudden thundershower in the mountains, even in the midst of a generally sunny and calm weather pattern.

here in mcleod ganj it's likely that we'll surpass 30C (86F) for the first time this year in the coming few days... while 35-37C (95-100F) is on tap for lower dharamsala.  some toasty weather for IPL cricket players, fans and dignitaries hanging out in our area during the next week or so.

SATURDAY: sunny this morning... a few mountain clouds along with a slight chance of a thundershower this afternoon.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.. quite warm.
low: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine, very warm.
high: 30C (86F)

MONDAY: summer warmth, with hazy sunshine.
high: 31C (87F)

TUESDAY: sunshine, haze and heat.
high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of hazy sunsine and some clouds... chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 31C (87F)

**WEBHOST MELTDOWN**

blogger, the google service that hosts this website experienced a meltdown thursday night (india time).  all is resolved now, but sorry that the latest weather info was unavailable for a long time.  here's the "post-mortem" message from blogger staff:

What a frustrating day. We’re very sorry that you’ve been unable to publish to Blogger for the past 20.5 hours. We’re nearly back to normal — you can publish again, and in the coming hours posts and comments that were temporarily removed should be restored. Thank you for your patience while we fix this situation. We use Blogger for our own blogs, so we’ve also felt your pain.
Here’s what happened: during scheduled maintenance work Wednesday night, we experienced some data corruption that impacted Blogger’s behavior. Since then, bloggers and readers may have experienced a variety of anomalies including intermittent outages, disappearing posts, and arriving at unintended blogs or error pages. A small subset of Blogger users (we estimate 0.16%) may have encountered additional problems specific to their accounts. Yesterday we returned Blogger to a pre-maintenance state and placed the service in read-only mode while we worked on restoring all content: that’s why you haven’t been able to publish. We rolled back to a version of Blogger as of Wednesday May 11th, so your posts since then were temporarily removed. Those are the posts that we’re in the progress of restoring.
Again, we are very sorry for the impact to our authors and readers. We try hard to ensure Blogger is always available for you to share your thoughts and opinions with the world, and we’ll do our best to prevent this from happening again.
Posted by Eddie Kessler, Tech Lead/Manager, Blogger

Thursday, May 12, 2011

thunderstorm possible... (pm.12.may.11)>

[click the *HAPPENING NOW* tab above for updates on potential thunderstorms tonight]

the temperature edged up just a little more today... i recorded a high temp of 85.6F (29.8C), and the humidity was only around 20% for much of the afternoon.  we have mostly sunny skies currently, athough it is hazy and there are a few clouds hovering over the mountains.

despite the lack of thunder action here, satellite photos this evening show a developing area of showers and thunderstorms to our northwest across northern pakistan and kashmir.  this storminess is associated with the latest weak upper-level disturbance which will be moving through the area during the next 24 hour or so.  although moisture is severely limited (as evidenced by our super-low humidity), the atmosphere is quite unstable, and it won't take much energy and colder air aloft to spark off a thunderstorm or two.  i would put the probability at 50-60% between now and tomorrow evening.

by saturday, high pressure aloft is going to begin to strengthen even further, and that will allow the heat to build even more.  the instability in the atmosphere should diminish though... which should all but erase our thunder chances for the weekend into early next week.  there's no stopping summer now...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and warm... a period of showers/thunderstorms possible overnight.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies with a good chance of a couple of thundershowers in the area.
high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine and summer warmth.
high: 30C (86F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and very warm.
high: 31C (87F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny with just a slight chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 31C (87F)

ripe for thunder..? (am.12.may.11)>

i had to blink and rub my eyes a few times when looking at the thermometer this morning, because i am showing 73F (22.8C)... that's the warmest early morning temp of this season by far.  skies are clear, but the haze is increasing again.

full-on summertime is in the forecast for the next several days at least, as a hot airmass continues to inhabit the northern plains of india, and doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.  for today and tomorrow especially, there will remain a bit of an active flow at the jetstream level... little disturbances and pools of much colder air aloft... and that means we need to keep the mention of an afternoon/overnight round of thunderstorms in the forecast.  one of those random thunderstorms is really the only chance we have of cooling down at all in the next few days.

yesterday's high of 85F (29.5C) was the warmest of 2011, and we should remain in that neighborhood right into the early part of next week... possibly even a few degrees warmer... especially by sunday and monday.  needless to say, every meter further down the hill, the heat will be more intense.  temps in kangra will be rising above 40C (104F), and staying there for a while.

THURSDAY: morning sunshine, but becoming partly cloudy with a period of thunderstorms possible this afternoon.  continued very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: chance of a thunderstorm, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies, with a thunderstorm or two in the area.
high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine and summery warmth.
high: 30C (86F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.  even warmer...
high: 31C (87F)

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

himalayan summer... (pm.11.may.11)>

today was the warmest day of the year... 85.1F (29.5C) at the top of mcleod ganj.  we've had summer sunshine all day, despite some big cumulus clouds developing over the dhauladars this afternoon.

there is a scattering of thundershowers across the western himalayas during the hour before sunset... satellite photos show nothing threatening us at the moment, but that could change quickly.  there will be a couple of fast-moving upper-level disturbances passing through here between now and friday evening, so the potential for sudden development of a few showers or thunderstorms still exists.  nothing particularly well-organized, widespread or long-lasting is expected, but be aware of the chance nonetheless.

apart from that, our very warm temps and sunshine will stick around.  we could actually climb another couple of degrees (at least) over the course of the next several days, with the only limiting factor being the appearance of a thundershower to temporarily cool things down.  we're getting into the relatively short season in mcleod ganj when a fan is nice to own...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: risk of a passing thundershower overnight... otherwise clear to partly cloudy and rather warm.
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies with a chance of an afternoon/evening thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny and very warm.  a thunderstorm or two possible.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny skies... summer-like.
high: 30C (86F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine and warm temps.
high: 30C (86F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and very warm, with a chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 31C (87F)

warmth settles in... (am.11.may.11)>

perfection... 100% clear skies and a pre-sunrise temp of 65.6F (18.7C) to start the day.  no thunderstorms popped up anywhere in himachal overnight, and current satellite pics show only a little action well to our north in northern pakistan and kashmir.

sunshine will be abundant much of today, and that will allow the heat to build rapidly this morning.  but once again, the heat at the lower elevations doesn't get along well with the colder temperatures over the mountains high into the atmosphere.  we'll have to watch for that instability to cook up a thunderstorm or two by the middle of the afternoon.  i think the best chances of thunderstorms will come tomorrow into friday, as a weak disturbance moves through, further stirring up a volatile atmosphere.  very normal for the middle of may, but just keep it in mind if you're going to be in the mountains away from shelter.

the wamest temps of the season are upon us... and we'll be flirting with 30C/86F even in mcleod ganj during the next week or so.  just down the hill in dharamsala 35C/95F is in the bag.  this is the time of year when a thunderstorm is a nice break, as it cools things down a bit...

WEDNESDAY: full sunshine this morning, but becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a thunderstorm possible.  very warm.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies with a chance of a thunderstorm.
low: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny with a good chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms around the area.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: a period of thundershowers possible... otherwise partly cloudy and very warm.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and summer-like.
high: 30C (86F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine... still very warm.
high: 30C (86F)

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

high season thrills... (pm.10.may.11)>

our tuesday really turned itself around, after a stormy start.  we managed lots of sunshine after about 9am, with only a couple of failed attempts for the mountain clouds to develop into thundershowers during the early to mid-afternoon.  there were a few sprinkles in upper dharamkot though, around 2-3pm.  the high temp was 82.4F (28C).  in case you missed the morning post, rainfall in the upper part of town overnight and early this morning was 0.18" (5mm).

with a brisk northwesterly flow aloft, embedded with minor disturbances, and all of this intense heat building on the plains, we're going to have to get used to a slight to moderate chance of a thunderstorm or two popping up during the afternoon and overnight hours during the next few days.  it does look like high pressure in the upper atmosphere will strengthen by the weekend however, which may stifle those storm chances a bit.  still... i'm not seeing any long-lasting rain situations, so if you're going to be adventuring, just be prepared to run for cover if necessary.

although this morning's showers kept temps a little lower than expected today, it's still likely that we'll see the warmest temps of the season thus far during the next several days.  the summer heat is now firmly entrenched across the lower elevations of the kangra valley, just in time for the IPL....

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies... but with a chance of a random thundershower moving through overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and very warm.  chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  should be the warmest day of the year...
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy with a good chance of a period of thunderstorms at some point during the day.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: still a risk of a thunderstorm, otherwise warm, with a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: mostly sunny and very warm.  only a slight chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 30C (86F)

SUNDAY: lots of sunshine... summer temps.
high: 30C (86F)