the latest...

**Sunrise Thursday -- we have mostly clear skies, with a pleasantly mild temp near 63ºF/17ºC. Forecast details are on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above...

Monday, June 27, 2011

anticipating the next round... (am.27.jun.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy at dawn... but the visibility is good, due to a lack of fog at the moment.  the early morning low temp has been 67.6F (19.8C), with a current humidity reading of 93%.  there has been no additional rainfall overnight.

although there are lots of clouds evident on the satellite photos this morning, there are no huge areas of rain and thunderstorms across northern india, as we were seeing this time yesterday morning.  that really doesn't mean a lot though, as there could be rapid development of thundershowers at any time.  during monsoon season, we often get stretches of 12-24 hours without any rain... but a good downpour of an inch (2.5cm) or more is never too far around the corner.  it's likely that we'll pick up several inches of rain by friday, as conditions at the surface and aloft will be favorable for the occasional deluge.

we've definitely arrived at the time of year when drying of clothes is a major and time-consuming task, and during the coming weeks, the development of mold and mildew will start to become an issue... probably the two major down-sides of the season. :-(

MONDAY: mostly cloudy.  occasional fog, with a good chance of a period or two of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with some rain likely.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog and rain.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: rain likely... with clouds and fog.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  some fog, with a few showers around.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy... foggy with occasional rain.
high: 22C (71F)

Sunday, June 26, 2011

a reprieve... (pm.26.jun.11)>

not a bad evening in progress... with clouds, patchy fog, and a few peeks of sun.  a decent end to an otherwise wet and dismal day.  between 11am and 4pm i recorded 0.79" (2.0cm) of rain, which, added to the 0.13" (3mm) before sunrise this morning, gives us a total of 0.92" (2.3cm) for the day.  temperatures have moved little all day long... but we finally reached a high of 71.6F (22C) late this afternoon.

i think we'd all agree that monsoon 2011 has gotten off to a rip-roaring start, with 4.62" (11.73cm) of rain falling since genuine monsoon conditions set in on thursday.  that's an average of 1.2" (3cm) per day, which is actually very close to the daily average expected over the course of the entire 10-12 week season.  humidity was 100% for much of the day, but has settled back to around 90% this evening.

it's refreshing to get a break this evening... but there are ominous signs for the coming week.  there is a massive amount of tropical moisture in the air all across northern india, and a series of weak upper-level disturbances are forecast to drop southeastward during the next few days... creating a very unstable airmass.  expect some very heavy rainfall totals (perhaps 5-8"/12-20cm) by friday.  unless we can get some sunshine during the morning and mid-day hours, temperatures will have a hard time climbing above 73F (23C) this week.

by the way, there was an official monsoon declaration in delhi and the remainder of punjab and haryana today... leaving only parts of rajasthan and gujarat out of the action.

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  chance of a period of thundershowers overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

MONDAY: clouds, fog and a little sunshine mixed in.  another round of rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: occasional moderate to heavy rain... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with some showers in the area.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and a few peeks of sun.  a period or two of rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

textbook classic... (am.26.jun.11)>

here at the top of mcleod ganj, visibility is only about 30 feet (10 meters) at dawn this morning thanks to thick fog.  there is some drizzle at the moment... with 0.13" (3mm) of new rain during the pre-dawn hours.  here are the stats for the past 24 hours:

yesterday's high temp: 77.4F (25.2C)
this morning's low temp: 68F (20C)
24 hour rainfall: 2.83" (7.2cm)
total rainfall for JUNE: 11.70" (29.7cm)

we have classic, textbook monsoon conditions out there this morning (background photo is current view from my balcony).  humidity is hovering between 95-100%, which means the atmosphere is holding as much moisture as it is capable of... thus, the thick fog.  satellite photos show lots of rain and thunder happening from southwestern kashmir through parts of western himachal, southward through most of punjab and haryana.. now knocking on the door of the delhi metro.  so far, delhi has escaped the official monsoon declaration... but today is likely to be their day.

winds aloft are very light... almost calm.  that means the areas of rain and thunderstorms that develop can drift in any direction, and hang around long enough to dump a tremendous amount of rain (as we saw here yesterday afternoon).  i was surprised that the lightning yesterday was so intense... but it's just another indication of the huge amounts of thermodynamic energy the atmosphere is holding.

although we may get some stretches of dry conditions, and even a peek or two of sunshine here and there, be prepared for sudden downpours with thunder and lightning at any time... and don't expect the humidity to relent!

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy.  a period or two of rain (possibly heavy) and thunderstorms.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: clouds, fog and occasional rain with thunder.
low: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: clouds and fog, with a peek or two of sun.  occasional rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY: clouds, fog, and periods of moderate to heavy rain.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy.  periods of fog and rain.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  a few rain showers around.
high: 22C (71F)

Saturday, June 25, 2011

*heavy rain and dangerous lightning*

3:27pm... rain has ended for the moment, but there is still some thunder rumbling in the distance.  2.70" (6.9cm) is the rainfall total for the day.

2:16pm... i have 2.59" (6.6cm) in the rain gauge... just in the past hour and 5 minutes.  lightning has (obviously) been very intense and dangerous during the past 45 minutes or so... lots of cloud-to-ground strikes in the immediate area.

forecast details below...

tropical humidity... (am.25.jun.11)>

we have mostly cloudy skies with some light fog at sunrise this morning.  the low temp has been 70.2F (21.2C), with no rainfall overnight.  the humidity currently stands at a very muggy 89%.

satellite pics show that the main rain and thunder activity overnight has occurred just to our south, across much of punjab, and southwestern himachal... it looks like chandigarh is getting in on the action at the moment.  winds aloft are very light, from the north, so all of this is drifting away from us.  however, tropical moisture is all over the place, so more areas of rain and possible thunder could develop at any time.  with this kind of airmass, it's not difficult at all to get an inch (2.5cm) of rain in a short period of time, so be prepared for that potential.  in case you missed it on the last post, the IMD has declared the official onset of the monsoon for our area... you can check the latest map here, or click on the MONSOON WATCH tab above.

it is looking very likely that we'll be seeing at least a couple of rounds of very heavy rains between now and early next week... our first real dose of what will become fairly commonplace during the coming 10-12 weeks.  stay tuned...

SATURDAY: clouds, some fog, and a couple of peeks of sun.  humid, with a good chance of a period or two of rain and thunder.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy.  occasional fog and rain likely.
low: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: clouds, fog and occasional moderate to heavy rain.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain, possibly heavy.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds and fog... more rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

Friday, June 24, 2011

IT'S OFFICIAL... (pm.24.jun.11)>

it is totally overcast and foggy this evening... with a bit of drizzle and/or a couple of sprinkles at the moment.  the high temp reached 75.9F (24.4C), and we've had 0.10" (3mm) of rainfall since this morning.  on my balcony at the top of mcleod ganj, humidity has averaged right around 85% today.

although rainfall has been light so far... the moisture/humidity has made the air thick, so clouds and fog have been the dominant features of the day.  i was pleasantly surprised this afternoon when i found that the IMD has agreed with us, and moved the leading edge of the monsoon much further northwestward to include the dharamsala area.  check the map here.  this means that the deep, rich, tropical moisture associated with the monsoon season has now officially arrived...  i feel relieved, actually!

the discrepancies between the various computer models that i've mentioned recently appear to be disappearing as well... with a growing consensus that our chances for very heavy rainfall will be increasing, effective immediately.  in fact, it looks like we will be in the thick of classic long-lasting monsoon downpours by late in the weekend or early next week.  of course temperatures will respond accordingly... and will continue their downward trend...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, foggy and humid.  a period of rain and thunder possible overnight.
low: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: clouds, fog, and a few peeks of sun.  good chance of some rain and thunder.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy... fog and periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: clouds and fog.  moderate to heavy rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy.  periods of fog and rain (occasionally heavy).
high: 22C (71F)

the arrival... (am.24.jun.11)>

it's cloudy and foggy at dawn, with some light showers and a few of rumbles of thunder.  my outdoor humidity reading is currently 91%, which is the highest i have seen this season.  the early morning low temp has been 68.9F (20.5C), with just a trace of rainfall as of 6:20am.

despite all the rain we've had this month (8.77"/22.3cm), it's only during the past 24 hours that we are experiencing genuine monsoon conditions.  as i mentioned last evening, we'll have to see if the deep tropical moisture will stick around, or if it will be pushed back to the southeast... and we'll also have to see if the IMD is paying much attention to us here on the front slopes of the mountains in himachal pradesh.!  at any rate, this is the saturated airmass we've been waiting for.

at both the beginning and the end of monsoon season, there are always some "surges and retreats" of the deep, rich tropical moisture, so we may have a few peeks of sunshine here and there... but with so much moisture around, clouds and patchy fog will never be too far away.  that means our temperatures will most likely be trending cooler than they were earlier this week...

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and very humid.  foggy at times, with occasional periods of rain and thunder.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy and foggy with some showers around.
low: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY: clouds, fog, and a peek or two of sun.  good chance of occasional rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  periods of fog and thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: clouds and fog.... rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

Thursday, June 23, 2011

well on our way... (pm.23.jun.11)>

there is a mix of clouds, fog, and peeks of sun around the area this evening, and it seems that the rain has ended for the time being.  i recorded 0.92" (2.3cm) today... the vast majority of that occurred between 3 and 4:30pm.  the high temp was 77.9F (25.5C), with humidity above 70% for much of the day.

we've had a nice healthy dose of monsoon conditions today... our airmass is finally taking on the true characteristics of monsoon season, as moisture from the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere continues to increase.  we'll see if this moisture is really here to stay this time, or if it will be pushed back to the south and east.  there are still a lot of discrepancies between the three main computer models... with one forecasting an onslaught of tropical moisture and heavy rain, one keeping us mainly dry, and another one somewhere in between.  i think the best call is to trend toward increasing humidity and rainfall as we head into the weekend.

you never know what the IMD (india met department) will decide to do, but i think there's a good chance we could have an official monsoon declaration in the next 4-5 days...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and muggy, with a risk of another period of rain and thunder overnight.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds, sun, and fog.  humid, with a couple of thundershowers in the area.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few thundershowers.  very muggy.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: clouds and fog with a peek or two of sunshine.  humid, with occasional rain and thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunder likely.
high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY: clouds, fog and occasional rain.
high: 22C (71F)

rain chance rising... (am.23.jun.11)>

yesterday's high temp: 82.2F (27.9C)
this morning's low temp: 72.0F (22.2C)
24 hour rainfall: none (as of 6am)

we have mostly cloudy skies just before sunrise this morning, the humidity stands at about 70%... and thunder is rumbling.  satellite pics show no organized areas of rain in our neighborhood, but there is a lot of moisture in place, and the atmosphere is increasingly unstable.

the combination of warmth and humidity the last couple of days have made it arguably the most uncomfortable period of the entire summer season... and it looks like it won't relent until the more consistent and persistent rains begin.  with all this moisture in the air, along with changes in the upper-air pattern, we will be seeing the chance of thunder and heavy downpours of rain increasing during the remainder of the week.  there has recently been absolutely no agreement or consistency between the various computer models regarding either temperatures or rain chances... but at least one of them is pointing to very heavy rainfall in our area by this weekend.  umbrellas have been out of service again, going on three days...  but it's probably a good idea to make sure they are a part of our standard equipment.

as clouds increase and sunshine fades, temperatures will dip... but in general, humidity should be on the rise right through the coming weekend...

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  humid, with a few thundershowers around the area.  a period or two of fog is also possible.
high: 26C (78F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy.  some rain and thunder possible.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and a bit of sun.  good chance of some fog, rain and thunder.
high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY: humid, with clouds, fog and peeks of sun.  good chance of occasional rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and humid with periods of fog and rain.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

competing factors... (am.22.jun.11)>

it is another totally clear morning... and one of the warmest of the past month, with a pre-sunrise temp of 71.8F (22.1C).  we've now had more than 36 hours without rainfall.

yesterday's dramatic return to summertime weather brought us the warmest temperatures in two weeks, but can it hold on?  muggy, tropical air continues to spread slowly north and westward across the indian subcontinent, but hot, dry, summertime air remains entrenched to the southwest of us.  add to that mix the cooler mountain air to the north and northeast, and you get an interesting weather scenario for us here.  the volatility of all these factors converging will give us the chance of rapidly developing showers and thunderstorms at any time during the next few days... along with the potential for some fog.  but also, the summer sun is not going to give up just yet, so temperatures (at least for the next day or two) will be a bit warmer than they were earlier this month.

the truth of the matter is this:  we get to remain in the speculation phase for a while longer, in advance of the inevitable arrival of the monsoon...

WEDNESDAY: a sunny start, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a period of thundershowers.  humidity increasing.
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and muggy.  good chance of a thunderstorm.
low: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  humid, with a couple of showers and thunderstorms around.
high: 25C (77F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  good chance of fog, and a period or two of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds, sun and some fog.  occasional thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy.  humid with some fog.  good chance of showers.
high: 22C (71F)

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

warmest in 2 weeks... (pm.21.jun.11)>

in observation of the summer solstice today, the atmosphere decided to revert to where it was exactly two weeks ago... with sunny to partly cloudy skies and a high temp of 80.4F (26.9C).  there has been zero rainfall in the past 24 hours... but the muggy air has been gradually returning since early this afternoon.

although we are still about a week ahead of the climatological average of the start of monsoon in the dharamsala area, our unusually wet and cool june has got us all in the monsoon mindset, so today (rather average for the 21st of june, actually), seemed quite strange in comparison.  the next few days are going to be very interesting, as a large mass of tropical moisture continues to work its way westward across the heart of india.  monsoon conditions are beginning in earnest in locations to our south and east... and we'll have to watch carefully to see if we can catch a piece of the action.  the whole atmospheric pattern across the northern half of india is in a state of transition... so the recent pre-monsoon fickleness and uncertainty will continue...!

the northwesterly flow which has delievered regular shots of cooler, fresh air recently is disappearing, so i am pretty confident that the humidity/moisture flowing back in here this evening is probably not going to be chased away again any time soon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy... humidity on the increase.  slight chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and muggy.  better chance of a couple of showers or a thunderstorm.
high: 24C (76F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  foggy, with a good chance of some rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY: clouds, some fog, and a few peeks of sun.  some showers and thundershowers around.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  humid, with a chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  a period or two of showers with thunder.
high: 22C (71F)

summer solstice... (am.21.jun.11)>

perfection this morning... we have totally clear skies before sunrise.  the pre-dawn low temp has been 67.3F (19.6C), and our humidity reading stands at a very comfortable 53%.  there has been no additional rainfall overnight.

the summer solstice occurs tonight in our time zone... this is the time when the sun reaches its furthest northward position, providing us with the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere.  from this point on, our days will gradually get shorter and shorter.  we'll start off the day in true "summer" fashion, with lots of sunshine and rapidly warming temps.  but as we've seen almost every day recently, humidity will increase, clouds will build, and thundershowers will pop up... especially as we head into the afternoon hours.

monsoon conditions have been trying to get going here along the himalayan front ranges for several days now, but the real deep, rich tropical moisture has not arrived yet, and a weak northwest flow aloft continues to deliver some shots of drier central asian air to chase away the mugginess.  there are some major adjustments happening in the upper atmosphere though, which may turn the tide later this week.  as always, you can check the MONSOON WATCH tab above for more info and a link to the latest map...

TUESDAY: sunny early, with increasing clouds by mid-day.  a period of rain and thunder possible during the PM.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and becoming more humid.  chance of a couple of thundershowers.
low: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  more humid, with periods of fog, along with some rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  muggy with fog at times.  occasional rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy.  good chance of some showery, foggy periods.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of some rain.
high: 22C (71F)

Monday, June 20, 2011

oh, the ambiguity... (pm.20.jun.11)>

a stunningly gorgeous evening in progress, with partly cloudy skies, pleasant temps and tolerable humidity.  we had another rather ferocious downpour late this morning, which delivered 0.62" (1.6cm) of rain, accompanied by fog and some gusty winds... but with this northwesterly flow aloft, some clear and drier air from central asia has moved in once again.  today's high reached 73.9F (23.3C).

late june is normally erratic and volatile, but i'm not sure i remember such wild swings between monsoon-like downpours with fog... and periods of sunshine with pleasant, fresh air.  when we are truly into monsoon season, the sunshine and lower humidity is much harder to come by, and we can go for days and days without being able to get a view down into the valley or up to the dhauladar range. ** remember to check the MONSOON WATCH tab above for the latest progress of the leading edge of real monsoon conditions**.

this flip-flopping, alternating, wildly-swinging pattern will keep on for another couple of days.  but as the upper-air flow shifts during the latter half of this week, we may be seeing the development of more prolonged periods of clouds, fog and rain... along with a consistently nearly-saturated airmass (read: humidity 80-90%+).  stay tuned!!

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies.  slight chance of a thundershower.
low: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny.  good chance of another round of thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and humid with some thundershowers around.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: clouds, fog, and a peek or two of sun.  periods of rain and thunder likely.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain and thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with fog and periods of rain.
high: 22C (71F)

our juicy atmosphere... (am.20.jun.11)>

skies are partly cloudy just before sunrise this morning... it's 68.5F (20.3C), and the humidity stands at 74%.  there was no rainfall overnight, and all is quiet across himachal pradesh for now... but there are some areas of rain and thunder to our west and north across parts of kashmir and northern pakistan which could affect us in a matter of hours.

we'll continue to see a mixed bag of summer/pre-monsoon conditions during the next few days, as we continue to wait for the definitive and official monsoon declaration.  periods of sunshine will alternate with periods of thick clouds and even some fog, while a couple of heavy downpours with thunder are a good bet as well from time to time.  our humidity levels will remain close to 70%... but could top 80% for brief periods during the early part of this week.

a weak but stubborn northwesterly flow aloft is keeping true monsoon conditions from engulfing the northwest third of india, but there are indications that may change by late in the week, as a more tropical easterly flow develops.  bottom line... the flirtation with monsoon 2011 will intensify.

MONDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  humid with some thundershowers around by mid-day.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY NIGHT: good chance of a period or two of rain and thunder.
low: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny and rather muggy.  some showers in the area.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and humid.  occasional fog, along with some showers and thunder.
high:: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: clouds, peeks of sun, and some fog.  good chance of a few periods of rain.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional rain and thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

Sunday, June 19, 2011

the waiting game... (pm.19.june.11)>

overnight low temp: 65.6F (18.7C)
daytime high: 76.6F (24.8C)
24 hour rainfall: 0.01" (<1mm)
average outdoor humidity: 60-70%

other than some thunder and a few brief showers before dawn and during the mid-afternoon, it has been a very nice sunday.  our average humidity readings remain well below where they need to be for full-fledged monsoon conditions to overtake us... so we must consider ourselves still in the pre-monsoon season, despite the occasional bursts of heavy showers and periodic foggy interludes.

as we approach the summer solstice (highest sun angle and longest day of the year), expect a little of all the ingredients... sun, clouds, fog, thunder, showers, humidity... to continue their rotation.

SUNDAY NIGHT: risk of a passing shower, otherwise partly cloudy and rather humid.
low: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  good chance of a period of thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: sun, clouds and some fog.  a period or two of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, foggy and humid.  good chance of occasional showers.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: clouds and fog with a peek or two of sunshine.  muggy with some showers likely.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  rain showers likely.
high: 22C (72F)

Saturday, June 18, 2011

where it is

sun-clouds-fog-showers... (pm.18.jun.11)>

the air is fresh, visibility is good, and we have a mix of clouds and some peeks of sunshine this evening.  we had some thunder and a few rain showers, mainly between noon and about 4pm, but it amounted to just 0.25" (6mm).  the high reached 74.5F (23.6C) thanks to sunshine during the mid to late morning.

although the month of june has been wetter and cooler than normal, we have the northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere to thank (or blame), as opposed to an early monsoon.  yes, surface moisture/humidity is increasing, pretty much on schedule, but it is the persistent flow of cool air aloft from central asia that has kept the atmosphere rather unstable and showery, and held down our temperatures.  one year ago, it was still around 86-89F (30-32C) at this time!

the monsoon is making progress over eastern and north-central india recently, but is having a really hard time pushing into the northwest third of the country.  practically, for us, it matters little... as we will continue to see nearly daily doses of rain and thunder, some passing fog, and humidity that is now starting to push into the 75% range during parts of the day.  the only thing distinguishing this from genuine monsoon conditions is the regular return to clear visibility and periods of nice sunshine.  we're still waiting for humidity to rise consistently and persistently above 80% to allow the clouds and fog to take over the show...

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and comfortable... slight chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 19C (66F)

SUNDAY: some sun...some clouds... some fog.  a period or two of rain and thunder.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: a bit of sun in the midst of clouds and some fog.  a few showers and thundershowers around.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  humid with periods of fog.  good chance of some rain and thunder.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds, fog, a peek or two of sun.  occasional showers.
high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

umbrella within reach... (am.18.jun.11)>

a large area of rain and thunderstorms has been sliding just south of us across much of punjab into southern himachal pradesh overnight... but we are dry, with mostly cloudy skies at the moment.  the overnight low temp has been 66.6F (19.2C), and our humidity stands at 72%.

a cocktail of pre-monsoon conditions is in the forecast again today... and for the next several days for that matter.  there will be times when it will feel and look like the middle of july, but with our average humidity remaining generally below 75-80%, clearing will come easily between occasional downpours of rain (as we saw yesterday).  but i think we can all agree that we've reached the time when it's not a great idea to leave home without the trusty umbrella.  [regular updates on the progress of monsoon on MONSOON WATCH tab above]

although humidity will be on the rise into the middle of next week, temperatures will be very pleasant... one of the positive benefits of the season...

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a period or two of fog.  good chance of showers/thundershowers in the area.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a couple of showers/thunder possible, otherwise partly cloudy skies.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny with a chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: sun, clouds and some fog... with a good chance of a few showers.
high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (73F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy, foggy and humid with periods of rain.
high: 23C (73F)

Friday, June 17, 2011

flip-flopping... (pm.17.jun.11)>

we're coming to the end of yet another schitzophrenic day, with a beautiful, pleasant evening in progress.  we started out with cloudy skies and occasional fog this morning, which led to a period of heavy rain during the noon hour... but sunshine broke out around 3pm, and has remained with us ever since.  i measured 0.88" (2.2cm) of rain up at the top of mcleod ganj, along with a high temp of just 74.3F (23.5C).

the fact that the clouds and fog aren't really taking over yet is an indication that the india meteorological department is correct in keeping the "official" northern limit of the monsoon south and east of here.  despite the (almost daily) tastes of monsoon-like conditions, it will take at least several more days before we are truly engulfed.  the limiting factor right now is the northwesterly flow in the mid- and upper levels of the atmosphere which is preventing the authentic deep tropical moisture from advancing into the northwest 1/3 of india. [for latest info on MONSOON WATCH... click tab above]

so... through the weekend and into early next week we can expect more flip-flopping between sunshine, clouds, periods of fog, and the occasional downpour of rain.  humidity has been consistently in the 60-75% range for about three days now, and should continue to creep upward.  temperatures, however, will be trending generally downward...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a chance of another period of showers or a thunderstorm overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and possible fog.  good chance of a period or two of rain and thunder.
high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY: some sun, in between periods of clouds and fog.  a few thundershowers in the area.
high: 24C (76F)

MONDAY: partly sunny skies... a thundershower or two possible.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and humid, with a couple of periods of rain and thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY: humid with a mix of clouds, fog and a bit of sun.  some showers likely.
high: 23C (73F)

showers lurking... (am.17.jun.11)>

cloudy skies this morning... the low temp has been 68.5F (20.3C), and the humdity is the highest i've seen it yet... 74%.  we've had no rainfall since wednesday afternoon, but that may be changing shortly.

satellite pics show a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms to our west and north, and the upper level flow is driving them towards the southeast.  be on the lookout for a couple of periods of thundershowers today... and they may not wait until the afternoon.  the atmosphere continues to become more and more moisture-laden, but a northwesterly flow aloft is keeping the northern limit of the monsoon stalled out across south-central and eastern india.  that's really only a technicality, though, since we'll see increasingly monsoon-like conditions here during the next several days.

sunshine will be at a premium and humidity high... so there won't be much fluctuation between daytime and overnight temperatures.  our highest temp of the entire summer season was 86.5F (30.3C) back on the 16th of may... it looks like we won't have an opportunity to challenge that again this year.

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some fog at times.  humid, with a couple of periods of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: scattered thundershowers in the area.  otherwise mostly cloudy.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sun, clouds and some fog.  a period or two of thundershowers.
high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny.  muggy, with some showers in the area.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of some showers and thunder.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of showers.
high: 23C (74F)

Thursday, June 16, 2011

increasing mugginess... (pm.16.jun.11)>

clouds are clinging to the mountains this evening... while the sun shines further down the hill.  we've only had fleeting glimpses of sun today, and that held our high temp to just 75.2F (24C).  although there has been no rainfall as of this posting, humidity crept up another few percentage points today... it's been hovering right around 70-72%.

nothing very dramatic to report... the upper air pattern is calm and quiet, surface moisture continues to increase, and the official leading edge of monsoon conditions remains well to our south and east.  what we've experienced the last two or three days is very typical of the pre-monsoon days... periods of sun - occasional thick clouds and some fog - gradually rising humidity - periodic heavy downpours.  when the wall of deep, tropical moisture finally engulfs us, we'll see fog which lasts for many hours and sometimes days on end, along with rainfall rates which average at least 1" (2.5cm) per day.  this is what we have to look forward to by the end of the month!

in the meantime, get caught up on laundry, make sure your umbrella is in working condition, and that you know how to lay hands on your other wet weather gear!  and> be prepared for sudden heavy downpours which could dump a half inch to an inch of rain in just an hour's time.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  period of showers and thunderstorms possible overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: clouds mixed with periods of sunshine.  humid, with a couple of thundershowers in the area.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY: clouds and hazy sunshine.  good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 26C (78F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny and muggy.  some showers and thundershowers in the area.
high: 25C (77F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a period or two of showers and thunder.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds, fog and peeks of sunshine.  humid, with occasional showers.
high: 23C (74F)

humidity is here to stay... (am.16.jun.11)>

it's hazy and partly cloudy at dawn this morning, with a temp of 68.4F (20.2C).  low temperatures the last three or four mornings have been very consistent.  it doesn't look like there has been any additional rainfall overnight.  total rainfall for june is just over 6" (15.2cm) as of the mid-point of the month... wetter than normal, but insignificant compared to what will be coming in july and august.

satellite pics show numerous patches of low and mid-level cloudiness across himachal pradesh, but there doesn't appear to be any shower and thunderstorm action at the moment.  that could change at any time... especially as we get into the afternoon hours and the sun has had a chance to heat up the atmosphere a bit.  our humidity continues to creep up day by day... and should be mainly in the 60-70% range today... that's an indication that the atmosphere is storing plenty of moisture to feed a few moderate to heavy showers.  for the next few days, there will continue to be a light flow from the north in the upper levels... which will carry any PM showers and storms off the mountains and right into mcleod ganj.  (remember to check the MONSOON WATCH tab above for updates on the "official" progress of monsoon conditions across the subcontinent.)

the sun is going to have a hard time winning the battle with the clouds... but periods of sunshine here and there will keep temps close to where they've been for the last 8 to 10 days or so...

THURSDAY: partly sunny this morning... mostly cloudy this afternoon.  humid, with a period of two of thundershowers.
high: 26C (78F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: a couple of showers around... mainly in the evening.  otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: a mix of hazy sunshine and clouds, with a good chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny.  muggy, with PM thundershowers possible.
high: 27C (79F)

SUNDAY: humid with a mix of clouds and sun.  a thundershower or two in the area.
high: 27C (79F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and muggy... a few showers and thunderstorms.
high: 25C (77F)

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

monsoon lite... (pm.15.jun.11)>

today has been like two totally distinct, separate days.  this morning it was mostly sunny and warm (the high reached 79F/26.1C just before noon), but clouds literally exploded during the noon hour, and occasional moderate to heavy showers occurred on and off between 12:30 and 3:30pm, along with some thunder.  i recorded 0.59" (1.5cm) of rain just below the mountaineering center at the top of mcleod ganj.

although the IMD (india meteorological department) has only declared "official" monsoon conditions over parts of southern and eastern india, we are definitely getting in on the action here on the south-facing slopes of the himalayan front ranges. [check MONSOON WATCH tab above for the latest info]  the humidity today topped 70% for a while, and as a general rule of thumb, consistent humidity readings of 80% and above indicate the certain arrival of the monsoon season.  that means we are precariously close.  monsoon conditions tend to develop more quickly along the mountains than down on the plains... for example, it was a sunny day in dehra dun, chandigarh and delhi.

during the coming few days we'll continue to see the moisture surge and retreat along the dhauladars and other front ranges of the himalayas... so expect periods of warm sunshine (mainly in the AM), then periods of clouds, some fog, and bursts of heavy showers (mainly afternoon and evening).  the days of quick-drying of laundry have pretty much come to an end :-(

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a period or two of showers.
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  rather humid, with a couple of thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 26C (78F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny.  muggy, with a shower or thundershower during the afternoon.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny and muggy.  an afternoon thunderstorm possible.
high: 26C (79F)

SUNDAY: humid with hazy sun and clouds.  risk of a couple of thundershowers, mainly in the PM.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and humid, with a few thundershowers around.
high: 25 (77F)

limbo land... (am.15.jun.11)>

we have mostly clear skies at sunrise, with a temp of 68.4F (20.2C).  there were a few sprinkles and very light showers after dark last night... but the 24 hour rainfall total stands at 0.36" (9mm), most of which occurred between 2 and 4pm yesterday afternoon.  there were some showers and thunderstorms overnight mainly south of us... and this morning satellite photos show the cloud remnants covering much of the southern half of himachal.

with the leading edge of the real monsoon conditions still hung up across the southern and eastern portions of india, we will remain in this limbo pre-monsoon state for several more days at least.  a moderate amount of moisture is in place, the flow in the upper atmosphere is from the north-northwest, while at the surface, a southerly breeze is trying to pull warm air up from the south.  this combination will keep us in line for scattered showers and some thunder during mainly the afternoon, evening and overnight hours.  hazy sunshine will be confined mostly to the mornings.  humidity readings here at the top of mcleod ganj have been hitting 60% at times during the last couple of days... so it is noticeably muggy... especially if you're walking up stairs and hills!

fortunately, our temperatures have stayed fairly comfortable... highs have been between 75-80F (24-27C) for the past week.  we should hold in that range into the weekend...

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine this morning... increasing clouds by noon with a couple of PM thundershowers.
high: 26C (79F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: scattered showers and some thunder in the area, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: a mix of hazy sun and clouds.  humid, with a thundershower or two, mainly PM.
high: 26C (79F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny, warm and humid.  risk of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY: muggy, with sun, haze, clouds and a passing thunderstorm.
high: 27C (80F)

SUNDAY: mix of clouds and hazy sun.  risk of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 26C (79F)

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

more of the same... (pm.14.jun.11)>

skies are partly cloudy this evening, with a few sprinkles and light showers in the area during the past hour or so.  there was a period of moderate rain and thunder around 3pm... which has given us a respectable 0.36" (9mm) of rain so far today.  a beautiful sunny morning allowed our high temp to reach 78.1F (25.6C), but as expected, clouds developed very rapidly right around the noon hour.

there are more showers and thunderstorms upstream to our northwest over the southwestern quarter of kashmir, and if they don't die out with the setting sun, they will drift into our area during the late evening.  the upper air pattern is becoming more and more typical of the pre-monsoon days... very light winds with fairly uniform temperatures up there.  moisture continues to increase and cluster along the front range of the himalayas from nepal and uttar anchal into himachal pradesh and southern kashmir, even though the rich, bonafide monsoon moisture remains well to the south for now.  this pattern will change little in the coming four or five days... providing us with periods of hazy, humid sunshine, afternoon clouds, and occasional rounds of showers with thunder.

it looks like temperatures are going nowhere, due to the afternoon warming being stifled by the quick build-up of clouds.  we'll remain near or slightly below normal into the weekend...which is kind of a gift.

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with thundershowers in the area until midnight.
low: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: morning sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds.  also a good chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 26C (79F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and muggy.  risk of a thundershower, mainly in the afternoon/evening.
high: 26C (79F)

FRIDAY: mix of hazy sun and clouds.  humid, with a PM thundershower possible.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY: hazy and humid... mix of clouds and sun.  slight chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 27C (80F)

SUNDAY: more hazy sunshine and clouds.  chance of a mainly PM shower or storm.
high: 26C (79F)

hazy sun, then clouds... (am.14.jun.11)>

we have clear skies and 68.5F (20.3C) as the sun peeks over the mountains this morning.  there has been no precipitation overnight, and only 0.01" (0.2mm) in the past 24 hours.

sunshine will be abundant for a while this morning before the clouds develop again over the mountains... most likely before noon.  it looks like the haze is back as well.  there are really no distinguishing features in the upper-level pattern... but moisture continues to increase all along the mountains, so the daytime heating will create enough instability to fire up some random showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.  we'll be repeating that scenario each day this week... so be on the lookout for a period of afternoon through evening and overnight rain and thunder.  otherwise get used to the new reality of higher humidity.

temperatures have been pretty steady the last several days, and should stay that way or perhaps warm up another degree or two as we head through the week.  enjoy these nice periods of warm sunshine, because it won't be long before the clouds and fog dominate for days on end...

TUESDAY: sunshine early... giving way to partly to mostly cloudy skies by afternoon.  rather warm and muggy, with a chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a risk of a thundershower.
low: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy sun and clouds.  humid, with a period of thundershowers possible.
high: 27C (80F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun, haze and some clouds.  slight chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 27C (80F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy, hazy and humid.  a thunderstorm possible.
high: 26C (79F)

SATURDAY: pre-monsoon mixture of sun, clouds, humidity and a chance of a shower or storm.
high: 26C (79F)

Monday, June 13, 2011

pre-monsoon combo... (pm.13.jun.11)>

sunshine is peeking through the clouds this evening after a brief thundershower which brought just 0.01" to my rain gauge at the top of mcleod ganj.  there was a good amount of sunshine this morning, but clouds quickly thickened during the mid-day hours... with a period of very dark overcast between about 2:30 and 5:00pm.  the high temp reached 77.9F (25.5C)... with humidity topping 60% at times.

satellite pics show a scattering of mostly weak, light thundershower activity over the mountains from kashmir through himachal into uttar anchal, but at this point, there isn't anything with any muscle to be seen.  there is now a lot of moisture in the air, but with warmer temps and very little dynamic energy in the upper-levels, it's not terribly unstable.  it looks like the upper air pattern will change very little during the coming week, but moisture is going to remain on the increase.  that means we'll continue with the chance of thundershowers during mainly the afternoon and overnight hours... one or two of which could dump some heavy rainfall.

temperatures will be largely dependent on sunshine... we've had a hard time getting past the 80F barrier during the past week, but that could change any day this week, and the humidity will make it feel even warmer.

MONDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  humid, with a period of thundershowers possible.
low: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  chance of a thundershower, mainly in the PM.
high: 27C (80F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny, warm and humid.  a shower or thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (80F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and muggy.  slight chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 27C (80F)

FRIDAY: humid with hazy sunshine and some clouds.  a thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY: more pre-monsoon mugginess... clouds, sun and a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 26C (79F)

a warm monday... (am.13.jun.11)>

a beautiful morning... mostly clear skies and a pleasant temp of 69.6F (20.9C) to start the day.  unlike this time yesterday morning, satellite pics are showing nothing but a few random patches of clouds across north india.

not sure if today will be as near perfection as yesterday, but it does look like we have generally quiet weather on the way... at least until the mid-afternoon hours when a random thundershower could enter the picture.  our big thunder/rain event during the wee hours of sunday morning has really worked over the atmosphere, and things may remain stable for a bit longer before the battle between airmasses resumes.  that will become more likely as the week goes on... with the flow aloft turning back to the north-northwest, which will force any thunderstorms developing over the mountains right down into our backyard.

today may be shaping up to be the warmest day in about a week... and depending on when a period of  cooling rain occurs, we could see the warm temps stick around for a few days.  humidity is tolerable now, but should be gradually on the rise day-by-day, right through friday.

MONDAY: partly cloudy and a little warmer, with a random thundershower possible during the PM.
high: 27C (80F)

MONDAY NIGHT: risk of an evening thundershower, then another shower or storm possible overnight.  otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sunshine, haze and a few clouds.  chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and more humid, with a shower or thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (81F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny... hazy and humid.  chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 27C (81F)

FRIDAY: clouds, haze, some sun.  muggy, with a thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (80F)

Sunday, June 12, 2011

interesting times... (pm.12.jun.11)>

this has turned out to be one of the finer days of our summer season... lots of sunshine with just a few clouds early this morning, and over the mountains during the afternoon/evening hours.  last night's mega-thunderstorms (2.30"/5.8cm of rain in less than 4 hours) chased all the haze away for now... so we've had great visibility as well.  the high temp reached 79.5F (26.4C), with humidity around 45% during the PM.

this is one of the most interesting times of the year in our area... as we watch the combination of summer heat, increasing moisture and resilient cool mountain air all fighting for supremacy.  as we approach the summer solstice on 21 june (the longest day of the year), we'll see that battle intensify... as all three factors consolidate to produce monsoon conditions which will dominate for the following 3 months.  the moral of the story is this... during the month of june, it is common for us to fluctuate back and forth between heat, humidity, blasts of cool air, and massive downpours during the run-up to the monsoon's takeover at the very end of the month.

it is looking like this week will contain all of the above.  computer models are in dispute over which of the competing factors will overtake the others during the next several days... so be prepared for everything.  we'll likely see some nice stretches of sunny and warm weather, but some generous rains are also a good bet, with occasional clouds and even a muggy night or two thrown into the mix...

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.  warm, with a chance of a thunderstorm, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with increasing haze and humidity.  a period of showers and thunderstorms possible.
high: 27C (80F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, warm and humid, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 27C (81F)

THURSDAY: hazy sunshine and clouds.  warm and muggy... a shower or thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (81F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of thundershowers.  humid.
high: 27C (80F)


lush and green... (am.12.jun.11)>

early morning thunderstorms (between 2:45 and 6:30am) delivered a whopping 2.30" (5.8cm) of rain... the largest rainfall total in a 24 hour period since april 17th.!  the storms were gathering in northern pakistan and western kashmir last night, and fed on the warm and muggy air (it was still 74F/23C here at 2:00am) as they plowed to the east-southeast through virtually all of himachal pradesh and punjab.  now the sun is trying to break out, the hills are lush and green, and we have nice clear visibility for a change.  the temp dropped to 61.2F (16.2C) during the height of the storm, but has now rebounded to 68F (20C).

now that the atmosphere has been totally recycled, we should have a pretty nice sunday... with some sunshine and pleasant temps.  we're going to remain right on the battle line between the roasting heat on the plains south and west of us, and the cooler mountain air to the north and east though, and that means another round of storms could erupt from the late afternoon through the overnight hours somewhere along the western himalayan front range.  the flow aloft will drive any action towards the east and southeast.

despite all the "monsoon talk" you might be hearing... this isn't it.  yet.  we're still waiting on the deep tropical moisture that remains in southern and extreme eastern india which will increase our humidity into the 80-100% range and put us in a nearly perpetual fog bank.  it's quite obvious when it hits.  check the MONSOON WATCH tab above to follow the progress.  having said that, we will be seeing increasingly muggy/humid conditions during the coming week, along with occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms in between periods of warm sunshine.

SUNDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few clouds.  slight chance of another thundershower by late afternoon.
high: 26C (78F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies with a chance of a period of showers and thunderstorms.
low: 18C (65F)

MONDAY: partly sunny... increasingly humid.  a shower or thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine.  rather humid, with a chance of a thunderstorm or two.
high: 27C (80F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine, a few clouds... warm and muggy.  slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 27C (81F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny, warm and humid.  risk of a thundershower.
high: 27C (81F)

*NOW*

6:57am... the hills are green, there is (believe it or not) more new snow on the higher mountain peaks, and our air is fresh and clear, thanks to the total recycling of the atmosphere during the last several hours.  we should see some sunshine soon, as this storm departs to the east.

6:27am... i almost had a heart attack just now as i checked the rain gauge... 2.30" (5.8cm) since 2:45am!!  still raining lightly.  temp is 62.5F (16.9C).

3:30am... thunderstorms moved in between 2:30-2:45am, and have been producing a lot of thunder and lightning, along with moderate to heavy rain.  satellite shows a massive area of showers and storms extending from southern kashmir through western himachal, into central punjab.  movement is slowly to the east.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

how long will it last?.. (pm.11.jun.11)>

it's a very nice, comfortable saturday evening, with partly sunny skies.  although the clouds looked ominous for a while this afternoon, it has been dry again (now two days in a row)... and our temperature managed to peak out at 77.2F (25.1C).  humidity remains moderately high... it's been around 55-60% during the afternoon hours.

there are thunderstorms rapidly developing across northern pakistan and roughly the western half of kashmir this evening, and the upper-air flow will carry them southeastward into our area later tonight... if they hold together.  the atmosphere has been only marginally unstable for the past 36 hours or so... due to the warming which is occurring in the mid- and upper levels.  we still haven't been able to capitalize on much of a warm-up here at the surface, but conditions remain favorable for a couple of degrees of warming during the next few days.  unfortunately, due to the humidity in place, even slightly warmer temps are going to make things rather muggy and uncomfortable.

we're in a pretty normal pre-monsoon pattern... and that means scattered mainly afternoon and overnight thunderstorms will remain a good possibility into early next week... although we'll see extended periods of hazy sunshine and dry conditions in between.  the air is now quite moisture-laden, so a round of thundershowers could easily produce more than 0.50" (1.3cm) of rain.

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy... a round of thunderstorms is possible overnight.
low: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: a mix of hazy sunshine and clouds.  chance of a period of showers/thunderstorms.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY: partly sunny and muggy.  one or two thundershowers possible.
high: 27C (80F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.  warm and humid, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, mainly in the PM.
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY: warm and humid with hazy sunshine and some clouds.
high: 28C (82F)

THURSDAY: mix of sun and clouds.  muggy, with a thunderstorm or two possible.
high: 27C (81F)

filtered sunshine... (am.11.jun.11)>

a quiet and pleasant early morning in progress... some scattered high clouds are moving into the area, and the pre-dawn low temperature has been 68F (20C).  there was no rainfall overnight, and no measurable rainfall in the past 24 hours.

satellite pics show an area of mostly thin, high cloudiness spreading in from the west... leftovers from a batch of thunderstorms which moved across northern pakistan overnight.  otherwise, there is no active weather over the western himalayan region, for a change.  our upper-level flow is shifting to the west and northwest, which is allowing warmer air to filter in, in all levels of the atmosphere.  this pattern has also allowed us to dry out during the last day or so.  we should see a good amount of sunshine today, but instability will build towards the mid-afternoon hours, leading to a chance of a period of thundershowers.  in fact, there could be a round of showers and storms on any of the next several days, in the midst of hazy sunshine and some clouds, as our pre-monsoon humidity increases.

temperatures have been a bit topsy-turvy so far this month... we've had a handful of very warm days, and a handful of pleasant ones.  it appears that we're back in a trend toward rising temps this weekend into early next week, but i'm not expecting anything unusually warm for this time of year...

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and warmer.  a thundershower is possible during the PM.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: risk of a period of thundershowers... otherwise partly cloudy skies.
low: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: a mix of hazy sunshine and clouds.  warm, with a period of showers and thunderstorms possible.
high: 27C (81F)

MONDAY: sun, haze and some clouds.  warm and muggy with a chance of a thunderstorm, mainly in the PM.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, warm and humid.  risk of an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 28C (82F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine, warm and humid.  slight chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 28C (82F)

Friday, June 10, 2011

dry, so far... (pm.10.jun.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy this evening... but we had a few hours of nice sunshine during much of the morning into the early afternoon.  clouds quickly developed over the mountains around 1:00pm, but as far as i've seen or heard, there has been no thunder and no rain (yet) today.  i recorded a high temp of 77.5F (25.3C) just below the mountaineering center at the top of mcleod ganj.

the satellite view shows that things are much quieter this evening than they've been at this time during the past 3 days.  although there are clouds over the mountains from kashmir through himachal into uttar anchal, there are only one or two weak, isolated showers at this point.  this is a sign that the upper-level low pressure system just to our northeast is finally breaking down.  high pressure aloft will gradually take over during the weekend into early next week... allowing a warm-up in all levels of the atmosphere.  however, moisture will be increasing, so any instability during the afternoon and overnight hours could trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms.  we'll enjoy some sunny periods during the next few days, but the rain potential will always be near.

it will be increasingly warm and muggy... but in the event of a thunderstorm,  we'll get to enjoy at least a few hours of natural air conditioning.  so far, the month of june has been wetter and cooler than normal...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies.  chance of a thunderstorm moving through after midnight.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and warmer.  a shower or thundershower possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 27C (80F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  warm and humid, with a risk of an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 27C (81F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy, warm and muggy, with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 28C (82F)

TUESDAY: hazy sunshine and some clouds.  a PM thundershower possible.
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny, warm and muggy.  thunderstorms possible.
high: 27C (81F)

impressive rainfall... (am.10.jun.11)>

mostly cloudy at dawn
current temp: 64.9F (18.3C)
rainfall 8:30-9:30pm: 0.91" (2.3cm)
rainfall 12:30-3:00am: 0.22" (6mm)
total rainfall past 12 hours: 1.13" (2.9cm)

the thunderstorm last night right around 9:00pm was definitely the most potent of the pre-monsoon season thus far.  nearly an inch of rain fell in less than a half hour, overwhelming all of the drainage ditches and gullies.!  just a taste of what we'll be dealing with almost daily by this time next month.  by the way, i've reposted the monthly rainfall averages for dharamsala (tab above), so you can see the dramatic increase in the amount of rain we start receiving in june.

it is another gloomy morning, with only a few breaks in the clouds.  i think we'll see more sun today than during the past couple of days, and temperatures will try to warm up a bit... but this northeasterly flow off the mountains since tuesday night/wednesday morning has chased the truly summertime air pretty far down the hill.  it will gradually come back over the weekend, as the atmosphere realigns itself, and our upper-air flow shifts more westerly.

some of the computer models are still insisting that the thundershower potential is going to all but disappear during the next few days, but considering the fact that we've had at least some measurable rainfall on 8 of the last 10 days, i am much more inclined to keep rogue showers and storms in the forecast, mainly during the afternoon and overnight hours.

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  a thundershower or two possible this afternoon.
high: 26C (78F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: chance of a period of thundershowers, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 19C (66F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and warmer, with an isolated PM thunderstorm possible.
high: 27C (81F)

SUNDAY: hazy sunshine and some clouds, with a risk of an afternoon thunderstorm or two.
high: 28C (82F)

MONDAY: warm, with sunshine, haze and mainly PM clouds.  slight chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny with a thundershower or two possible.
high: 27C (81F)

Thursday, June 9, 2011

*NOW*

9:35pm... light rain showers, some thunder and lightning still happening.  june is the 4th wettest month of year in dharamsala (behind july, august and september), by the way.

9:15pm... WOW.  that was a healthy downpour.  i have 0.91" (2.3cm) in the rain gauge... all in the last half hour.  gullies/drainage is overloaded in my neighborhood.  heavy rain seems to have ended for now...

8:58pm... very heavy rain... some small hail mixed in.

8:51pm... potent thundershower in progress.  satellite pics show an area of showers and thunderstorms drifting into our area from southern kashmir.  moderate intensity rainfall at the moment, with lots of thunder, lightning and some gusty winds.

forecast details below...

clouds dominate... (pm.9.june.11)>

there are a few peeks of sunshine between the clouds this evening... pretty much the same scenario we've had all day.  there was some thunder before sunrise again, and a bit more thunder during the early afternoon, but personally, i haven't seen any raindrops.  the high temp reached 76.3F (24.6C), with humidity in the 50-55% range.

a broad area of upper-level low pressure over tibet continues to provide us with a northeasterly flow of air aloft... this coolish flow is interacting with the summertime air at the surface across northern india to produce quite a bit of cloudiness, along with widely scattered showers and thundershowers (which have been sticking pretty close to the mountains).  this pattern is currently in the process of breaking down, however, which will allow a warmer and slightly more stable airmass to move in from the west during the next few days.

although the official leading edge of monsoon conditions remains in southern and extreme eastern india, we are seeing an appreciable increase in humidity.  we are into the time of year when a period of showers or thundershowers is about a 40% likelihood on any day, in the midst of alternating sunshine and clouds.  temperatures have been cooler than normal for the past couple of days... but at this point, i'm banking on a rebound as we head for the weekend...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with some thundershowers in the area.
low: 20C (68F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny and a bit warmer.  risk of a thundershower.
high: 27C (80F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and warm.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY: hazy sunshine and some clouds.  warm and muggy with a shower or thundershower possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 29C (83F)

MONDAY: a mix of hazy sun and clouds.  rather humid, with some passing thundershowers possible.
high: 29C (83F)

TUESDAY: warm and muggy with a few thundershowers in the area.
high: 27C (81F)

meteorological mixed bag... (am.9.jun.11)>

thunder has been rumbling to the south since about 5am, and skies are mostly cloudy at dawn this morning.  the overnight low temp has been a pleasant 66.4F (19.1C).  there has been no rainfall overnight up here at the top of mcleod ganj. satellite photos are currently unavailable for some reason... hopefully they'll be back up soon.

we remain wedged between an unusually strong low pressure system parked over central tibet, and that large, sprawling area of high pressure from the persian gulf into punjab and rajasthan.  this combination is providing us with a flow from the north-northeast in the upper atmosphere... and keeping scattered showers and thundershowers popping up and dying all along the western and central himalayas.  it has also cooled our temperatures down a few degrees from where we were last weekend into early this week.  computer model guidance says that this tibetan low pressure system will weaken and move out of the picture, to be replaced again by generally fair and warmer weather... but so far i am seeing little tangible evidence of that.

it looks like the sun will continue to play hide-and-seek with the clouds, with random showers and thundershowers roaming the area today (rainfall on the light side)... with perhaps a turn to a bit more sunshine and lower rain chances as we approach the weekend.  temperatures should remain fairly pleasant for this time of year... but could bounce back into the "normal" range between saturday and monday...

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine with comfortable temps.  a couple of showers and thundershowers in the area.
high: 26C (79F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: chance of a thundershower or two, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies.  still risk of a random shower or thundershower.
high: 27C (81F)

SATURDAY: hazy sunshine and some clouds.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY: sun, haze and some clouds.  rather warm and muggy with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy, warm and muggy.  slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)


Wednesday, June 8, 2011

mild for june... (pm.8.jun.11)>

there are a few breaks in the overcast to the south and west, otherwise skies are mostly cloudy just before sunset this evening.  glimpses of sunshine turned out to be a rarity today... so we only saw a high temp of 76.1F (24.5C), pleasantly cooler than expected.  there were a few brief periods of showers between about 12:30 and 3:30pm, but in my rain gauge, it only amounted to 0.08" (2mm).

counter-clockwise (anti-clockwise) circulation around an area of upper-level low pressure in the middle of tibet is responsible for generating the persistent cloudiness and occasional showers and thundershowers of the past 24 hours or so.  the clouds and showers have been driven southwestward from the mountains... but haven't contained a lot of moisture... thus the very light rainfall totals.  this feature is expected to weaken during the next day or so, allowing upper-level high pressure to our west to build back into the area over the weekend.  even so,   i am not at all confident that we can totally get rid of the potential for afternoon and evening thundershowers in the midst of some long stretches of hazy sunshine.

after four warm days in a row, it was nice to get some cooler weather today, but a return to seasonable warmth is likely.  there are still plenty of opportunities for a few days of very warm weather before monsoon conditions set in...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: still some showers and thundershowers in the area until midnight... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  warmer, with a chance of a thundershower, mainly in the PM.
high: 27C (80F)

FRIDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny and warm.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny and warm with an afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

MONDAY: hazy sunshine and occasional clouds... very warm.
high: 29C (84F)

flirting with showers... (am.8.jun.11)>

it's mostly cloudy at dawn this morning, with a temp of 69.6F (20.9C).  i've had no measurable rainfall since about 9:30pm... but there was more thunder between 3:00 and 4:00am, thanks to an area of tenacious thundershowers which survived almost all night in central himachal.  rainfall here last night: 0.20" (5mm).

an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere has developed over central tibet... and our persistent area of high pressure aloft remains centered over afghanistan.  we are right in between, and have been the beneficiaries of these mountain thundershowers which have actually been moving from the northeast to the southwest... rather unusual.  the flow in the upper atmosphere will continue to drive any development over the mountains right down into our neighborhood... so we'll keep scattered mainly afternoon and evening thundershowers in the forecast for another couple of days.  after that, it appears that the big area of high pressure to our west will regain control, lowering shower chances, and boosting tempertatures once again.

there are indications we could see a surge of humidity coming in over the weekend, to go along with the summer warmth.  the atmosphere is gradually preparing for the monsoon's arrival in just a few weeks!  remember to check the MONSOON WATCH tab above, if you're interested in the latest info regarding the northward advance of monsoon 2011.

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny skies, not quite as warm.  an afternoon thundershower is possible again.
high: 27C (81F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: an evening thundershower or two in the area... otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sun, haze and some clouds.  an isolated PM shower or thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  warm.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and very warm, with increasing humidity.
high: 29C (85F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy, warm and muggy.
high: 29C (84F)

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

thundershower moving through...

9:55pm... just a few sprinkles and some thunder leftover now.  0.20" (5mm) in the rain gauge during the last half hour.  temp 72F (22.2C)


9:29pm... a new area of thundershowers has developed to our northeast, and is drifting southwestward through mcleod ganj now.  rainfall is moderate to heavy at the moment, with quite a bit of thunder and lightning.  i am also getting some hail here at my place.  expect this to continue for the next hour or so...

your complete forecast below...

a taste of everything... (pm.7.jun.11)>

this morning's low temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
this afternoon's high temp: 82.6F (28.1C)
24 hour rainfall: 0.01" (0.3mm)

a thundershower is currently in progress this evening.  it's been another day of morning sun and haze, with partly cloudy skies, rumbling thunder and a couple of light showers during the afternoon.  seems we are firmly entrenched in a pattern here.  judging from the satellite pics, these thundershowers along the himalayan front ranges are relatively weak for the most part, and should diminish by midnight.

the pre-monsoon doldrums are apparently upon us.  there are no real distinguishing features in the upper-air pattern, as a general area of high pressure remains anchored to our west, with some weak disturbances rotating south-southeastward from central asia into kashmir and himachal pradesh.  these disturbances contain little pockets of cold air aloft... providing the instability necessary for our random PM thunder action.  a couple of the computer models are insisting that this risk of thundershowers will disappear, but considering what has happened the past few days, i think it's best to keep it in the forecast until we see tangible proof otherwise.

our temperature may have peaked yesterday... but we'll remain fairly close to normal for the first half of june right through the next several days with a slow and steady increase in humidity.  no surprise at all for this time of year...

TUESDAY NIGHT: thundershowers in the area until midnight... then clearing overnight.
low: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of hazy sunshine and some clouds.  still that risk of a PM thundershower or two.
high: 28C (83F)

THURSDAY: hazy, partly cloudy and warm.  a shower or thundershower possible during the afternoon.
high: 28C (83F)

FRIDAY: sun, haze and a few clouds.  warm and kinda stuffy.
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies... warm and more humid.
high: 29C (84F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny, warm and muggy, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

Monday, June 6, 2011

no blanket required... (pm.6.jun.11)>

skies are partly cloudy this evening, as this afternoon's thundershowers have drifted off to the southeast.  we've had a very very typical early june day with a mix of hazy sunshine, a few clouds, and a period of thundershowers between 2 and 4:30pm which delivered 0.04" (1mm) of rain at the top of mcleod ganj.  i recorded a high temp of 84.7F (29.3C), which was the warmest since the 19th of may.

a huge area of high pressure aloft continues to dominate the weather pattern to our west... bumping up against the western himalayas.  this scenario is keeping things calm and peaceful for the most part, the exception being the scattered summertime thundershowers which pop up over the mountains on the majority of afternoons during this time of year.  there will be no significant change in the general pattern into the weekend, other than the fact that the mid-levels of the atmosphere may stabilize further, which could stifle even our PM thunder potential by thursday.  the haze will continue to be a factor, dimming the full intensity of the june sunshine.

temperatures should remain near their current levels, or even warm up another degree or two... keeping us pretty close to the warmest weather of the season.  some uncomfortable nights ahead...

MONDAY NIGHT: a random thundershower still possible this evening, then becoming mostly clear.  rather warm.
low: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny AM, partly cloudy PM with a chance of a brief thundershower.  very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: very warm with hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  only a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: a mix sun, haze and a few clouds.  still very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  stagnant air!
high: 29C (84F)

SATURDAY: more hazy sunshine with some afternoon clouds.
high: 29C (84F)

warm with hazy sun... (am.6.jun.11)>

apart from the haze, skies are clear before sunrise this morning.  i'm recording an overnight low of 72.5F (22.5C), the warmest since 16 may, which also happened to be the warmest day of the year thus far.  the thundershowers that were rumbling around kashmir and himachal again last night have totally dissipated, after avoiding us altogether... only a trace of rainfall in the past 24 hours.

four days of steady warming have now brought us right back to normal for early june, and with further warming this week, we'll end up above normal.  this is due to the persistent ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere sprawled from the persian gulf into northwest india, which has been allowing the heat to build once again.  it looks like the welcome arrival of a nice thunderstorm will be the only way to break the heat, and there is at least a mentionable chance of that happening both today and tomorrow during the afternoons/evenings.  there are still no organized storm systems in sight... but instability created by the heating of the surface during the day, colliding with the cooler air entrenched above the mountains will provide us with the potential for some of that thundershower relief.

otherwise, we'll continue to see a mix of sunshine, haze and some afternoon clouds... very much on par for the  first half of june.

MONDAY: hazy sunshine, with some clouds and a chance of a thundershower during the PM.  very warm.
high: 29C (84F)

MONDAY NIGHT: a shower or thundershower in the area this evening... then clearing overnight.
low: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun, haze and a few clouds.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and hazy.  very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: still very warm, with hazy sunshine and a few clouds.
high: 29C (85F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and hazy.  stagnant.
high: 29C (84F)

Sunday, June 5, 2011

thunder threatening...

8:40pm... lightning to the southeast and to the northwest.  we are dodging bullets so far tonight.


8:14pm...  lobsang wangyal is one blessed soul.  miss tibet finals in progress, and it seems the thundershowers are holding off.


7:36pm...  an area of thundershowers is hovering just to our north and northwest.  winds aloft are very light, so it's hard to say whether this action will drift our way this evening or not.  thunder is rumbling, and there have been a couple of sprinkles in the last hour or so... be prepared just in case.  updates to follow if necessary.

scroll down for your complete forecast...

return of the haze... (pm.5.june.11)>

it's mostly cloudy and hazy this evening, with a few thundershowers threatening.  satellite photos show clusters of thundershowers over kashmir, with some isolated weaker activity over the mountains of himachal.  everything is drifting slowly to the east-southeast.  we did have a brief shower early this afternoon... i counted about 17 big fat raindrops, and that was it.  thanks to the sunshine this morning and the warmer airmass nudging in from the southwest, we reached a high of 83.3F (28.5C) today.

the warmer temps at the surface combined with a couple of weak circulations and colder air in the upper atmosphere managed to stir up this scattered shower and thunder action over the western himalayas this afternoon.  we could catch a bit of rain and thunder this evening... but then things should quiet down and clear out by midnight or so.  after that, no major changes in the general weather pattern are expected right through the coming week.  we have a large area of high pressure extending from the persian gulf into northern india, and it will continue to protect us from any significant storm systems.  we'll see a mix of sunshine, haze, afternoon clouds and that risk of an afternoon thundershower for the next couple of days... with even smaller chances of rain by the end of the week.

after about 10-11 days of cooler-than-normal temperatures, we've finally scratched and clawed our way back to where we should be for early june.  it looks like temps will rise a bit more this week, taking us close to the warmest weather of the season so far... unless we can get saved by a healthy thundershower.

SUNDAY NIGHT: a shower/thundershower in the area before midnight... then becoming mostly clear.
low: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: hazy sunshine in the morning, with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of a thundershower in the afternoon.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun, haze and clouds.  a PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: very warm, with hazy sunshine and a few clouds.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny, hazy and warm.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny, hazy and still warm.
high: 29C (84F)

gradual warm-up... (am.5.june.11)>

another totally clear morning... with a comfortable temperature of 69.3F (20.7C) before sunrise.  last evening's isolated thundershowers over some of the mountains of kashmir and himachal died out quickly, leaving things calm and quiet all across northern india overnight.

our weather pattern will change little during the coming several days, as weak high pressure remains planted from the arabian peninsula into northern india.  the flow in the upper atmosphere is coming from the northwest, and will bring a few random disturbances through the area from time to time... which could fire up a couple of thundershowers over the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours.  nothing to be too concerned about, but be aware and prepared for the potential for a sudden period of thunder and rain if you are in the mountains away from shelter. otherwise, skies will remain partly to mostly sunny right into the middle of the coming week, though the haze is going to become more apparent again.

temperatures are on the rise... yesterday was the warmest day since the 26th of may... and it looks like we may have some of the warmest days of the season just ahead of us.

SUNDAY: lots of morning sun.  becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a chance of a thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: possibility of an evening thundershower in the area, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.  very warm, with an isolated afternoon thundershower possible.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  very warm.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: still warm, with sun, haze and a few clouds.
high: 29C (84F)

Saturday, June 4, 2011

peak of summer... (pm.4.june.11)>

the day started bright and sunny, and is ending bright and sunny... with plenty more bright and sunny in between. what a day for the first week of june!  usually it is either muggy, hot and hazy, or stormy this time of year, but today was one for the history books.  the high temp reached 82.2F (27.9C) which, although slightly cooler than normal, was the warmest in 10 days, while humidity remained comfortably low.

satellite pics are showing only isolated weak thundershowers over some of the higher mountain peaks of the western himalayas this evening... otherwise it is calm and quiet all across our region.  there are no ominous features appearing in our weather pattern, and that should remain the case for the next several days.  the typical summertime thundershowers could pop up over the mountains and drift downhill on any given afternoon or evening (as we all know), but otherwise, sunny and increasingly hazy skies, along with a few PM cumulus clouds will be the rule right into the middle of next week.

i've been holding out to make sure the warming trend advertised by the computer models is for real, but based on today's jump into the low 80s(F), i am becoming more confident that we could see some of the highest temps of the season between tomorrow and thursday.  so far, our warmest day of 2011 was 16 may, when we reached 86.5F (30.3C).

(the MONSOON WATCH tab above is updated regularly, so check it out to follow the advance)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.  mild.
low: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: lots of morning sun, with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  an isolated thundershower is possible.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm, with a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny, hazy and very warm.  slight chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 29C (85F)

WEDNESDAY: very wam with hazy sunshine and a few afternoon clouds.
high: 29C (85F)

THURSDAY: a mix of hazy sunshine and occasional clouds.  summertime warmth.
high; 29C (84F)

warm weekend... (am.4.june.11)>

it's a super bright and sunny saturday morning... not a cloud in the sky.  the pre-sunrise low temp was a comfortable 66.6F (19.2C)

the view from space currently shows absolutely clear skies over a wide area from the persian gulf across afghanistan and pakistan, into the northern half of india.  this is thanks to a strengthening area of high pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which will be the dominant weather feature in our part of the world for the next several days. there will be no organized storm systems moving through... but we'll still have to watch for those afternoon/evening thundershowers to develop in a widely scattered fashion over the mountains.  one or two of those could occasionally drift into our neighborhood, but expect sunshine to prevail for most of the daylight hours... right into the middle of next week.

i mentioned last evening that the computer models are advertising an aggressive warming trend.. the problem is.. they did the same thing last week, and it never really materialized.  it DOES look like we have a very good chance of returning into the "normal" temperature range for early june, but i am going to go conservative for another day or so until we can see if the warm-up is truly for real!

(remember to check the MONSOON WATCH tab at the top of the page, if you're interested in keeping track of the northward advance of monsoon 2011.)

SATURDAY: a sunny morning... with a few mountain clouds during the afternoon.  slight chance of a brief PM shower/thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and continuing to warm up.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: sun and a few clouds.  chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  very warm with a late-day thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

Friday, June 3, 2011

excellent summer wx... (pm.3.jun.11)>

a very nice evening is shaping up... with mostly sunny skies and a few lingering clouds hanging over the mountain peaks.  we had a couple of classic "sun showers" between 2:00 and 3:00pm today, which deposited 0.04" (1mm) in my rain gauge at the top of mcleod ganj.  i never heard any thunder, and the sun was shining the whole time, but the raindrops were pretty fat and juicy for a few minutes!  temps were warmer today... but we've now had eight days in a row without breaching the 80F barrier.  it was close... 79.9F (26.6C).

it looks like a nice weekend is on the way, although we'll have to keep an eye on the potential for another random afternoon shower or two.  there are no significant storm systems on the horizon right through the five-day forecast period, as a weak ridge of high pressure continues trying to build in.  each day should feature a good amount of sun, some clouds billowing over the mountains during the afternoon hours, and at least a slight risk of a passing shower or thundershower.  all in all, a very typical early june weather scenario.

there are indications that our temps may rise quite bit during the next several days... but i am going with a rather conservative warming trend for now, based on how unusually cool it has been for the past week.

*check out the MONSOON WATCH tab above for the latest info on the northward advance of monsoon 2011 across india.*

FRIDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: sunny in the morning, but becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with a brief shower possible.
high: 27C (81F)

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.  chance of a passing PM thundershower.
high: 28C (83F)

MONDAY: plenty of sunshine.  warm temps.
high: 28C (83F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few clouds.  even warmer, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)

WEDNESDAY: warm with hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 29C (84F)