the latest...

**It's been a while since we've had totally clear skies at sunrise, but that's the story early on this Friday morning. The temp is near 64ºF/18ºC.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

turning the page... (pm.29.feb.12)>

What a way to finish off the month of February!  Other than the fact that we had a chilly start to the morning, the day turned out very close to perfect, with lots of sunshine, and comfortable temperatures.  I recorded a high of 60.4F (15.8C), which was slightly warmer than expected.

I am automatically leary, and a little bit paranoid, when the weather pattern looks like it is going to be quiet for a few days.  That's the situation now... as a weak ridge of high pressure builds across northern India, with no sign of any kind of storm systems until the latter half of the weekend.  I've been looking hard for a "fly in the ointment" that might play the spoiler for the first two or three days of March, but I don't see it.  It appears that we're in line for a good amount of sun, along with gradually warming temperatures.

It is possible that we could see a dramatic surge of spring-time air by Saturday and Sunday, in advance of the next significant upper-level disturbance.  I'm playing it conservative for now, but we'll be watching it on a day-by-day basis, along with an increasing chance of rain for Sunday and Monday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
cool, with mostly clear skies.
low: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY:
sunshine... with some clouds over the mountains.
high: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY:
plenty of sunshine... warming slightly.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY:
partly cloudy and pleasant.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy with chance of a couple of showers or thunderstorms developing.  springtime temps.
morning low: 12C (53F)
daytime high: 18C (65F)

MONDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun with a good chance of a period or two of showers and/or thunderstorms.
morning low: 12C (54F)
daytime high: 18C (65F)

leap day sun... (am.29.feb.12)>

We have crystal clear skies at sunrise this morning... but it's quite cool.  I have an overnight low temp of 45.3F (7.4C) which occurred around 6:00am.  If it's that chilly at my place, then I'm sure it is down around 40F (4C) in some spots.

The weak upper-level disturbance we had in the area on Monday and Tuesday has dissipated, but there is still some very cold air left behind in the upper atmosphere.  As the sun heats up the surface this morning, we just might see clouds develop over the mountains, with a risk of a shower or thundershower popping up somewhere. It looks like a great day otherwise, just keep that in mind if you plan to be wandering in the hills.

Warmer air will be making its way back -- in all levels of the atmosphere -- during the remainder of the week, as a high pressure ridge builds in.  March should arrive in style, with plenty of sun, and pleasant temperatures.  We're looking at a surge of real "springtime" air by late Saturday and Sunday, ahead of the next potentially wet weather system...

WEDNESDAY:
sunshine this morning, but becoming partly cloudy with a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 14C (58F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
becoming mostly clear.  still a bit cool.
low: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY - FIRST DAY OF MARCH:
partly to mostly sunny.
high: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  warming up a bit.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY:
sunshine, but increasing clouds.  pleasant temps.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY
partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of a thundershower or two by afternoon.
morning low: 11C (52F)
daytime high: 17C (63F)

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

wrapping up feb... (pm.28.feb.12)>

Skies are partly cloudy as we approach sunset this evening, after a day which featured some nice sunshine, but also periods of clouds, and a round of thundershowers with some sleet and small hail this morning between about 10:00 and 10:40am.  I measured 0.10" (3mm) of rain, along with a high temp of 59.5F (15.3C) which occurred early this afternoon during an extended sunny break.

The concern about a "brief, passing shower" that we've had in the forecast the last couple of days finally came to fruition this morning... but I think we got a little more than we bargained for.  Although it was short-lived, there were rumbles of thunder and even some ice pellets; evidence of a pool of very cold air in the upper atmosphere associated with our weak upper-level disturbance.  If you got caught out in it, I'm sure it wasn't very pleasant.

That disturbance is now moving east-southeast of us, and will be gradually replaced by a weak ridge of high pressure as we move into the middle and latter parts of the week.  It's doubtful that we'll see 100% sunshine, but it should be generally bright and pleasant nonetheless, with temperatures warming up a bit more by Saturday.  There is still an indication of a new system moving in by Sunday, which will increase rain chances once again...

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.  a bit cooler.
low: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny skies.  an isolated PM shower?
high: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY (FIRST DAY OF MARCH): sunshine and a few clouds.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and milder.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY: increasing high clouds... warmer temps.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of thundershowers developing.
morning low: 12C (53F)
daytime high: 17C (63F)

general serenity... (am.28.feb.12)>

UPDATE @ 10:42AM... I have 0.10" (3mm) of rain and melted sleet/hail up here.  The temp has dipped to 48F (9C)... so our high temp today has been revised downward a bit.  That was fun... let's see if we end up getting another one of those little episodes before the day is out... or if we can coax the sun back.


UPDATE @ 10:23AM... There is a little sleet/small hail mixed with the rain up here at the top of Mcleod.  Wondering what is happening up in Dharamkot and Naddi.  This is an indication of the cold air aloft, associated with our upper-level disturbance passing through...


UPDATE @ 10:10AM... Well it looks like the sky is falling out there at the moment.  We have a thundershower that has developed overhead which is putting a dent in our "serenity"!

It's a partly cloudy morning... but it looks like there could be a few light showers up along the mountains.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 51.2F (10.7C) which is mild, but not quite as balmy as it was yesterday morning at this time.

The weather pattern remains fairly quiet... we still have a weak upper-level disturbance in the area, which is stirring up the clouds and those few sprinkles and light showers just above us... but it's nothing to write home about.  By tomorrow, a weak ridge of high pressure will be building in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  That should set us up for a few days of generally sunny skies, and slowly warming temps.  Things look good as we turn the page to March.

It's possible that we could have a pretty dramatic surge of warmer air by the weekend, in advance of a potential rain-maker moving in late Saturday into Sunday.  Signs of Spring...

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.  a couple of showers/thundershowers in the area... not as warm as yesterday.
high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
high: 15C (59F)

THURSDAY (FIRST DAY OF MARCH): sunshine and a few clouds.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warming up a bit.
morning low: 10C (51F)
daytime high: 17C (63F)

SATURDAY: increasing clouds... comfortable temps.  slight chance of a late day shower.
morning low: 12C (54F)
daytime high: 18C (64F)

Monday, February 27, 2012

definitely tolerable... (pm.27.feb.12)>

A stunning evening in progress... we have mostly clear skies just before sunset, as the snow on the mountains continues to melt away.  I recorded a high temp of 62.2F (16.8C) early this afternoon as the sun took over.

The circulation around a weak upper-level disturbance to our northwest provided us with a mostly cloudy morning, along with a couple of hours of very strong and gusty winds.  But it has also been responsible for pulling up a batch of very mild air from the plains of north India, which we've been able to enjoy all day.  There have been some scattered rain and snow showers in the mountains to our north today, but as far as I am aware, there hasn't been so much as a drop of rain anywhere in the Dharamsala area.  This system will still be in the area tomorrow, so we'll keep a standard 20% chance of a stray shower in the forecast, but that's about the extent of it.

A rather non-descript and uneventful weather scenario should dominate the latter half of the week, with a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds, along with relatively pleasant temps for the February/March transition.  Unfortunately, there might be a new storm system brewing over the weekend... which will increase our rain chances by late Saturday and Sunday...

By the way>  maybe you've noticed that I have been making some feeble attempts to understand podcasting.  The main link/player is located near the top of the page on the right.  The most recent post is entitled 002 Micro-Climates, and if you have the patience to listen, you might find it interesting.  If you live here, you'll relate to it.

MONDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies, with a slight chace of a random shower passing by overnight.
low: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and some clouds.  a brief, isolated shower still possible
high: 16C (61F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

THURSDAY (FIRST DAY OF MARCH): sunshine and a few clouds.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: still a good amount of sunshine, with mild temps.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: increasing clouds... chance of a shower by evening.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

seasonal transition... (am.27.feb.12)>

Dare I say it's a balmy morning?  The current temp is 56F (13.3C), and I recorded a low temp of just 52.9F (11.6C) just after midnight before the clouds moved in.  These early morning temps are more like the second week of March, than the last week of Feb.... so suddenly we've bounced above normal for a change.  I even had my first spider of the year camping out on my kitchen wall while I was making coffee this morning!

The clouds are quite thick at sunrise... mainly mid- and high-level variety, and there are some gusty winds at the moment.  This is in association with a weak upper-level system which is hitting northern India with a glancing blow today into Tuesday.  We should still have some sunshine bursting through from time to time, but both today and Tuesday probably won't feature the nearly unlimited sun we enjoyed on Sunday.  There is also a small chance of a period of mainly light showers at some point... I'm not expecting anything very signficant.

The latter part of the week looks dry, quiet, and fairly comfortable, with at least partly sunny skies.  At this point, it looks like March will have a very lamb-like arrival...

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then a mix of clouds and sunshine.  Breezy at times, with  just a slight chance of a few sprinkles or a passing shower.
high: 16C (61F)

MONDAY NIGHT: There could be an isolated shower or thundershower in the area, otherwise partly cloudy and mild.
low: 10C (50F)

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds.  Still a risk of a brief shower.
high: 16C (61F)

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

THURSDAY (FIRST DAY OF MARCH): Sunshine and a few clouds.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

Sunday, February 26, 2012

nice recovery... (pm.26.feb.12)>

Other than a couple of very thin patches of cirrus clouds, our sky is clear just before sunset this evening.  It has been a fantastic Sunday... full of sunshine and pleasant late winter temps.  I recorded a high of 59.5F (15.3C) in the upper part of town this afternoon.

Today goes down in the books as the nicest day of 2012, I'm sure... and I even had my first sighting of a Western tourist in a t-shirt and shorts wandering around in the main market right around 5:00pm.  That may be pushing it a little, but at least it's a sign of the season to come.

Satellite pics are showing another upper-level disturbance moving across Afghanistan, but this one is fairly weak, and at this point, it appears that most of its energy will be diverted just north of us as it passes by tomorrow and Tuesday.  We'll see an increase in mainly high clouds tonight and tomorrow, leading to a slight chance of a passing shower or two... but I'll be surprised if there's much more action than that.  The rest of the week is looking pretty quiet, as we transition into March.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover... but our airmass should remain warm enough to allow even a few periods of sunshine to translate into a mild, pseudo-springtime feel.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Fair, with increasing high clouds after midnight.
low: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: A mix of sunshine and mainly high clouds.  Slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy, to mostly cloudy at times.  Slight chance of one or two brief showers.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

THURSDAY: Sunshine and a few clouds... a nice start to MARCH.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, with comfortable temps.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 17C (62F)

truly fine... (am.26.feb.12)>

saturday's high temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
this morning's (sun) low temp: 47.7F (8.7C)
24 hour rainfall: zero

i've been back here for just over two weeks, and i am sure this is the first time we've had a 100% clear sky at sunrise.  it is a fantastic, gorgeous morning... and i hope it translates into an equally gorgeous afternoon.

the atmosphere is warming up again, and we should see a healthy surge in temperatures today and monday, as we approach the "normal" range for the end of february.  as the week goes on, temps may plateau, but remain relatively mild and comfortable.  the general weather pattern doesn't feature any significant storm systems during the coming week, but with each successive run of the computer model guidance, one or two more weak wiggles and disturbances in the mid- and upper atmospheric flow are showing up for at least the first part of the week. so -- we may have the opportunity to dodge a quick shower or two, especially late monday into tuesday afternoon... although rain chances remain quite small.

enjoy your sunday!

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies.  pleasant temps.
high: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: increasing high clouds overnight.  rather mild.
low: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: both sunshine and high clouds.  only a slight chance of a PM shower.
high: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a slight chance of a rain shower.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny... comfortable.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

THURSDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.  a nice start to the month of MARCH.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

Saturday, February 25, 2012

clouds to sun... (am.25.feb.12)>

a gray saturday morning underway, with a healthy layer of mid- and high clouds across the area.  i recorded an overnight low of 47.3F (8.5C), and the rain gauge is empty.

satellite photos show a broken layer of high overcast across much of northern india this morning... extending as far south as delhi.  there may be a few sprinkles or very light showers embedded in the clouds in a couple of spots, but nothing more than that.  these clouds should break up/move out towards mid-day, leaving us with generally clear to partly cloudy skies for the rest of the weekend.

the overall weather pattern is undergoing some major adjustments for the end of the month, which will lead to a drier, milder, and sunnier scenario by the middle of the coming week.  before that happens, there is yet one more fast-moving disturbance scheduled to fly through here on monday.  it could stir up a quick shower or thundershower... but at this point, i think most of the precipitation will remain to our north in the mountains...

SATURDAY: cloudy skies early, with a mix of clouds and sunshine thereafter.  just a slight chance of a quick sprinkle or light shower.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy.
low: 8C (47F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and more comfortable.
high: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: both sunshine and some clouds, with a slight chance of a passing shower.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny and mild.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

Friday, February 24, 2012

a quiet weekend... (pm.24.feb.12)>

we're in the midst of a very nice evening on this third day of losar.  there is a greater sun to cloud ratio than we've had at sunset for more than a week.  despite that greater percentage of sunshine, the high was actually lower than  it's been in a few days... i recorded 55.6F (13.1C).

february is drawing to a close, and it looks like this rather turbulent month will finish up quietly.  there is still a weak circulation in the upper atmosphere... leftovers of the system that has been hanging around all week... but it is soon to disappear completely, leaving us with a generally flat pattern for several days.  as i mentioned this morning, one of the computer models has been hinting at a fast-moving system sweeping through here on monday, so we'll have to watch that; but i'm opting to leave rain out of the forecast for now.

temperatures will be on the cool side at night, but approaching a near normal "mild zone" during the daylight hours.  if things pan out (like we'd all like), we may even be feeling a hint of spring in the air by the middle of next week...

FRIDAY NIGHT: cool... with clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 7C (45F)

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  just a slight chance of an isolated PM shower.
high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and nice.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: sun and a few clouds.  mild.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly sunny, with comfortable temps.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (61F)

on the upswing... (am.24.feb.12)>

it's a bit cooler out there this morning than it has been in the last few days... i've recorded an overnight low of 46.2F (7.9C).  our sky is partly cloudy at sunrise.

although we managed only 0.92" (2.3cm) of rain this week, since the first showers began on sunday evening, it has been an active week, weatherwise.  we have been contending with this upper-level storm system for 5 or 6 days now, and it's still parked just to our northwest.  yesterday it failed to stir up much in the way of shower and thundershower action, as it had done the previous two evenings, but it is still generating quite a lot of cloudiness, patches of fog, and the occasional spritzes and sprinkles of rain.  it certainly has been nice to get the sunny breaks in the midst of it all, though.

as this system dies out, the general trend over the course of the next few days will be toward an improving weather scenario.  although there is no super dramatic turn to full sunshine and warm temps, we should be seeing a greater percentage of sun, along with gradually more comfortable conditions into early next week.  one of the computer models is showing a weak, fast-moving system skirting us on monday, but we'll keep an eye on it for another day or so before putting rain back in the forecast...

FRIDAY: a mix of sunshine and clouds.  a brief shower or two still possible, mainly this afternoon.
high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: perhaps a shower in the area during the evening, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 8C (47F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy skies, with an isolated PM shower possible.
high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and more pleasant.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

MONDAY: sunshine and some high clouds.  mild temps.
mornng low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny and mild.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 16C (60F)

Thursday, February 23, 2012

murky for now... (pm.23.feb.12)>

yet another moody kind of day. some nice periods of sun... thick fog during the early morning and again during the early afternoon, and a few sprinkles of rain... also during the early afternoon.  the temperatures was on a roller-coaster ride, with the dramatic changes between sun and clouds/fog... but i ended up with a high of 57.2F (14.0C) which occurred around 1:00pm.

in the near-term, there is no major change to the weather story... our over-staying guest, the upper-level disturbance, remains near the pakistan/kashmir border, but has lost a lot of its steam during the past 24 hours or so.  computer models have been doing a terrible job determining precipitation amounts over northern india, as we've ended up with much less rainfall than has been consistently predicted.  it looks like there could still be some random showers during the coming day or so, but most likely nothing of any major consequence.

looking ahead... the overall pattern may be trying to adjust to something more calm, quiet and serene than we've experienced for quite a long time.  we'll have to watch the potential for pesky clouds that sometimes get trapped along the front ranges of the mountains even during a fair weather pattern... but it IS looking hopeful.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thundershower moving through overnight.
low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a brief, passing shower possible.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.  pleasant.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

shower risk remains... (am.23.feb.12)>

the temp is 48.6F (9.2C) at sunrise this morning... with mostly cloudy skies and patches of fog around the area.  other than a sprinkle or two, there has been no measurable rainfall since our thundershower last evening.

a nearly stationary upper-level disturbance sits along the pakistan-kashmir border, and will gradually give up its energy and die away during the next couple of days.  this feature has been the main influence on our weather since sunday, and although we haven't had widespread, persistent rainfall since monday night, it has been responsible for generating the scattered showers and thundershowers since tuesday evening.  as long as this circulation remains anchored just to our west, our airmass is going to remain rather unstable, so just be aware of the potential for another round or two of passing showers/thunder both today and friday.  hopefully we'll see some periods of sunshine again in the midst of it all.

a large-scale pattern change is being advertised by computer models over the weekend into early next week.  for the first time in a LONG time, there doesn't appear to be another storm system waiting in the wings... and that should allow us to enjoy some dry and quiet weather, along with a modest warming trend...

THURSDAY: some fog this morning, then a mix of clouds and sunshine.  good chance of another round of showers (with thunder?).
high: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: could be a thundershower or two in the area during the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy... with a couple of showers still possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  still that pesky shower risk in the afternoon.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and nice.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: sunshine and a few clouds
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 15C (59F)

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

watching the pin-wheel... (pm.22.feb.12)>

5:55p... thunderstorms have been rapidly developing to our south and southwest during the past hour or so, and appear to be moving to the northeast.  i am hearing thunder at 5:55pm.  we could have rain, thunder and lightning moving into mcleod ganj this evening.  more info to come...

6:20p... thunder and lightning every 5 minutes or so.  just now getting a few sprinkles up here on tushita road.

6:30p... i have fog, strong wind gusts, light to moderate rain, thunder and lightning... and a few very small hail stones. (and power which keeps going on and off..!)

6:50p... the upper-level storm system we've been following for the last 3 days or so is now centered just to the west of srinagar (probably about over gulmarg, if you're familiar with kashmir).  it's simply an area of low pressure which circulates counter-clockwise (or anti-clockwise), and has been kind of like a "pin wheel", with alternating pulses of disturbed, convective (rising) air, and then drier, more stable air.  the convective pulses are what have been responsible for our thick clouds, showers, thunder, etc... with some nice periods of quiet and dry weather in between.  this system is now dying a slow death over kashmir... but will continue to influence our weather through tomorrow evening.  maybe that's TMI (too much information), but i can't help myself sometimes...

7:30pm...
* today's high temp was 59.4F (15.2C)... which i think is the highest temp of 2012.  somebody correct me if i'm wrong.  it occurred during the last blast of sunshine late this afternoon.
* rainfall today up here on tushita road below the mountaineering center was just 0.05" (1mm).
* total rainfall since this latest weather system moved in on sunday evening has been 0.92" (2.3cm).

livin' on the edge... (am.22.feb.12)>

LOSAR TASHI DELEK!...

it is mostly cloudy at sunrise this morning, but it's dry at the moment.  our "sound and light show" last evening was a nice losar fireworks display, but i only received about 0.10" (2-3mm) of moisture out of the deal.  there were a few sprinkles and very light showers after that, but not enough to measure.  temperatures remain mild... i have an overnight low of 50.5F (10.3C) on tushita road.

there will be more areas of rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two across himachal pradesh today, as our days-old, slow-moving upper level disturbance continues to flirt with northern india.  the system will move into western kashmir today, then basically sit still and weaken... and eventually die out altogether.  that means we have to keep at least a 50/50 chance of some showers and thundershowers in the forecast today and into thursday... although it is likely that some areas will miss out.  i still think we'll see another round or two of measurable rainfall between now and thursday evening.

no significantly cooler air is poised to sweep in, so temperatures will remain on the mild side, and largely dependent on breaks in the clouds allowing a few minutes of sunshine from time to time.  expect what could be a more extended period of nicer weather next week... we have indications of a pattern change.  more on that later...

FIRST DAY OF LOSAR:  gusty winds, clouds and a few peeks of sunshine... but still a good chance of a period of rain.  another thunderstorm possible as well.
high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: a few rain showers and/or a thundershower in the area, otherwise partly cloudy skies.
low: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a couple of showers or a thundershower.
high: 13C (55F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a slight chance of a passing shower.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY: partly sunny... a nice day.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (58F) 

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

tibetan losar wx... (pm.21.feb.12)>

it has been one heck of a moody day.  clouds.  bursts of sunshine.  sporadic (generally light) rain showers.  and all of that occuring simultaneously on a couple of occasions.  i recorded a high temp of 55.6F (13.1C), with a wet rain gauge, but nothing measurable since before sunrise this morning.

i've been very surprised all day that the bulk of the precipitation stayed generally north and northeast of us, along the higher mountain ranges.  waves of energy passing through in the upper atmosphere will continue to drift through northern india between now and tomorrow (wed) night, which will stir up more showers (and thunder?) from time to time, and still perhaps a period or two of moderate to heavy rain.  tomorrow morning will be busy for tibetans and many foreigners as well, since it's the first day of losar... unfortunately, it could be a wet morning.

there will be a smaller chance of rain as we approach the end of the week, but the weather pattern doesn't look totally settled, which means limited sunshine, and the risk of an occasional shower.  temperatures will remain on the mild side... but still not as warm as we'd like for the end of february...

TUESDAY NIGHT: variable clouds, with a good chance of a period or two of rain.  thunder possible as well.
low: 8C (47F)

(WED) FIRST DAY OF LOSAR: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  rain likely at times through the day.
high: 12C (54F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a couple of showers in the area.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy.  a decent day.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a passing rain shower.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

more to come... (am.21.feb.12)>

monday's high temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
overnight low temp: 45.9F (7.7C)
overnight rainfall: 0.61" (1.5cm)
rainfall since monday morning: 0.75" (1.9cm)

we have cloudy skies this morning just after sunrise... but no rain at the moment.  we've already had close to 2cm since this latest storm system started moving in, and there should be plenty more where that came from.  the break in the action we're experiencing early this morning won't last very long, i'm inclined to think, as it looks like, from the satellite vantage point, the next batch of rain is organizing just to our west.

the best frame of mind for all of us is to expect occasional periods of rain for the next 36-48 hours.  "occasional" means that there will be some dry weather in between, but it would be a good idea to keep the umbrella and rain gear within reach if you need to be out and about.

still no indication that there will be enough cold air available to bring the snow line anywhere close to mcleod, or even naddi and dharamkot for that matter.  this is definitely a more "springtime" storm system, with lots of mild air wrapped up in it.  we are watching for some clearing toward the end of the week, but no dramatic turn to an extended period of dry and sunny weather is expected...

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy.  occasional periods of rain likely, with some thunder possible as well.
high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: more on-again, off-again rain is likely.
low: 8C (46F)

WEDNESDAY (FIRST DAY OF TIBETAN LOSAR): continued mostly cloudy, with a good chance of another period or two of rain anytime during the day.  some thunder, too?
high: 12C (53F)

THURSDAY: maybe a bit of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few showers still possible.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy... a nicer day.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and some sun, with a chance of a shower or two.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

Monday, February 20, 2012

no escaping the rain... (pm.20.feb.12)>

the day is ending rather pleasantly, with a bit of sun peeking through the clouds on the western horizon.  clouds have dominated the day, however... and occasional light rain from the mid-morning into the early afternoon totaled 0.14" (4mm).  the thermometer barely budged all day... but did finally reach 54.1F (12.3C) when the clouds broke a little during the late afternoon.

we're currently catching a break in the action, but another wave of rain will be heading our way later tonight and/or tomorrow... and it will most likely be heavier than what we had today.  then, there will be another wave or two of rain after that through the first day of losar and perhaps even lasting into thursday.  the upper-level storm system responsible for the wet weather is still scheduled to begin pushing into western kashmir on wednesday, then weaken and die out right over our heads.  this spells an extended period of rain-dodging and gray skies.  a couple of the computer models are still spitting out data which indicates 4-5cm (1.5-2") of rain is not out of the question by thursday.

there is no dramatic insurgence of colder air expected, so that snow line which was way up near triund today should stay up above the vast majority of the population...

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a good chance of more rain developing.
low: 8C (47F)

TUESDAY: cloudy skies, with periods of rain likely.  there could be some thunder as well.
high: 12C (53F)

WEDNESDAY (FIRST DAY OF LOSAR): mostly cloudy with occasional rain and possible thunder.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a rain shower or two still in the area.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  a nicer day.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

wet week expected... (am.20.feb.12)>

it is mostly cloudy at sunrise this morning, and i'm recording a mild overnight low temp of 49.6F (9.8C).  rainfall since last evening has been just 0.02" (less than 1mm) here in the upper part of town.

very nice to have some milder air in place... but it won't really mean much due to the fact that we've been losing our sunshine little by little the last couple of days.  the storm system moving in from central asia will have gradually greater influence on our weather between now and wednesday... increasing our chances of rain. we're in for an extended period of damp weather, with even a period or two of heavy rain not out of the question during this coming week.  a couple of the computer models are showing around 5cm (2") of rain in our vicinity, mainly between late today and wednesday evening... so we shall see if that becomes reality or not.

as we've been talking about a lot recently... the warmer air in all but the highest levels of the atmosphere will keep the snow line well above us... but very heavy snow is going to be likely this week above 2500m (8200ft).  here at our elevation, temperatures will be in the range of normal for a late february wet spell...

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  good chance of a few rain showers developing.
high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a period or two of rain likely.
low: 8C (47F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain.  thunder possible as well.
high: 12C (53F)

WEDNESDAY (FIRST DAY OF LOSAR): cloudy skies with occasional rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

THURSDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  still a shower or two in the area.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

Sunday, February 19, 2012

rainy stretch ahead... (pm.19.feb.12)>

we've had our first light rain shower in mcleod ganj early this evening... a sign of things to come.  otherwise, we had a partly sunny morning and a mostly cloudy afternoon, with a high temp of 57.0F (13.9C) which occurred during the sunshine just before noon.

the storm system we're waiting for continues to develop and progress at a snail's pace.  the center of the upper-level energy is just now entering northern afghanistan, and will be moving ever so slowly eastward during the next  3-4 days.  rain chances will be gradually on the rise during the coming 24-48 hours, peaking on tuesday night into early wednesday.  at this point, it looks like we may be looking at 4-5cm (1.5-2") of rain in a few spots by the time the first day of losar comes to an end.  i still think the airmass will be warm enough to keep the snow line well above where most of us live.  but as always... stay tuned as the situation evolves.

our temperatures have been steadily rising the last few days... but due to the thicker clouds and prevalence of rain, we probably won't warm up much more.  however, overnight lows will remain quite comfortable, all things considered.

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy and mild.  couple of mainly light showers passing through.
low: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  good chance of a few rain showers.
high: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY: cloudy with periods of rain likely.  thunder possible as well.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY (FIRST DAY OF LOSAR): mostly cloudy skies with more rain likely, along with a chance of a thunderstorm.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

THURSDAY: becoming partly cloudy... but still a chance of a shower or two.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and drying out.
morning low: 8C (47C)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

those high clouds... (am.19.feb.12)>

the shiver-factor has reduced significantly the last couple of mornings...  i'm recording a low temp of 47.8F (8.8C) here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center.  it's a beautiful morning, with scattered high clouds just prior to sunrise.

we're spending our weekend in a state of limbo, as we wait for the sprawling, very slow-moving storm system to our west to begin stirring up some rain showers.  so far, it has only been providing us with some high cloudiness, as well as pulling up some milder air ahead of it.  computer models are all showing that this system may never acually move through northern india... instead, the center will move into western kashmir by mid-week, then just die away.  although we could have some stray showers pop up later today, the focus continues to be on late monday through wednesday for the best chance of some moderate to heavy rainfall.

with a warmer airmass in place, it is going to be hard to get any snow below about 2300m (7500ft) or so, but as usual, we'll keep a close eye on it, especially during the tues/wed period.  temperatures are not warm, by any means, but at least it is now quite a bit more comfortable than it's been in a long while...

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with mild temps.  one or two light rain showers are possible by late in the day.
high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers.
low: 10C (50F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies, with a better chance of a period or two of rain.
high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY: cloudy with occasional rain likely.  thunder possible as well.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of rain and thunder.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  still a couple of showers in the area.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

Saturday, February 18, 2012

limbo-land... (pm.18.feb.12)>

there is a high overcast sky this evening... much like this time yesterday.  but thanks to morning sunshine and some warmer air nudging in from the south, we made it to a high temp of 55.8F (13.2C).  not beach weather, by any stretch, but it's at least considerably milder than it was earlier this week.  there has been no rainfall in the area that i am aware of.

satellite pics continue to show large patches of mainly high clouds being manufactured and ejected into nothern india... in advance of a developing strong storm system.  as we've been talking about the last couple of days, rain chances have been pushed back, as we wait for this potent upper-level system to move our way.  there could be some stray showers popping up around the area tomorrow, but it still looks like the best chances of significant rainfall will hold off until monday... and especially tuesday and wednesday.  a couple of the computer models are trying to keep most of the heavier rain just to our north in kashmir.... so we'll just have to watch it.

very mild air is being drawn northward ahead of this system, so we'll continue to erase the really chilly overnight low temps from the forecast for the next several days.  unfortunately, with limited sunshine, we won't be able to capitalize much on the warmer airmass during the daytime.

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  mild overnight temps.
low: 9C (48F)

SUNDAY: a few glimpses of sun between clouds, with a couple of afternoon showers possible.
high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and mild... good chance of occasional rain showers.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY: cloudy with periods of rain likely.  thunder is possible as well.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: cloudy with more rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a couple of lingering rain showers possible.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

a mild weekend... (am.18.feb.12)>

a very different comfort level this morning, at least at my house... the overnight low dropped to just 46.2F (7.9C).  there are some high clouds in the area, but it does look like the sun will be visible as it peeks over the mountains very shortly.

our weekend is definitely starting off on the right foot, with these milder temperatures and sunshine.  the next storm system remains well to the west of us, but as it shoots out little waves of energy in advance, we'll see periods of cloudiness at times, along with a small chance of a passing shower or two.  it doesn't look like there will be much of significance to dampen outdoor weekend plans.  in fact, temperatures will probably be close to the warmest of the year so far.

the real show starts monday, and especially by tuesday into wednesday, as the center of this slow-moving storm system finally pushes into northern india.  rain chances will increase dramatically... but the airmass is going to be so mild that the snow line should remain well above mcleod, naddi and dharamkot.  more info on that as it becomes available in the next few days...

SATURDAY: a mix of sunshine and high clouds, with only a slight chance of a passing shower during the PM.
milder temps!
high: 13C (55F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a brief shower possible.
low: 9C (48F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  one or two light showers are possible.
high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with a better chance of a few periods of rain.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13 (56F)

TUESDAY: cloudy... best chance of occasional rain.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of more rain.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

Friday, February 17, 2012

gradually milder... (pm.17.feb.12)>

we have quite a lot of high cloudiness obscuring the sunset this evening, after sunshine this morning into the early afternoon boosted our high temp to 53.6F (12.0C).  that's the warmest of the past week.

it would have been nice to hold on to those blue skies for a few more hours this afternoon, but already, the next weather system is spewing out waves of high clouds well in advance of its arrival.  this system is not well-organized just yet, and it looks like it will take a few days before the best chances of rain materialize across himachal pradesh.  although there could be a few scattered light showers over the weekend, the potential for heavier rain will hold off until the monday through wednesday timeframe.

temperatures from the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere are going to warm steadily during the next 48-72 hours... so when the precipitation finally gets going, the snow line should be well up the mountain.  the best news for the coming few days is that temperatures are going to be milder than they've been in a while... it will be especially notable during the overnight hours.

FRIDAY NIGHT: a thin layer of high clouds.  not as cool.
low: 7C (45F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and some periods of sun.  chance of a shower or two by late in the day.
high: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a couple of passing showers possible.  quite mild.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy... good chance of a period or two of rain.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with rain likely.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: still cloudy with a good chance of more rain.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

late winter sun... (am.17.feb.12)>

we have a nearly clear sky just before sunrise this morning... the last time that happened was on saturday, nearly a week ago.  it's chilly to start the day... i've recorded a pre-dawn low temp of 41.7F (5.4C).

yesterday turned out quite nice, but it looks like today will be even better.  we are "in between" weather systems for just this short 48 hour period, allowing us to soak up some sunshine, dry out and warm up a bit.  there will be some high, thin cirrus clouds streaming in from the west today which may dim the sun from time to time, but it will still be pretty bright and pleasant.

although showers are back in the forecast for the weekend, it looks right now that they will be few and far between, as the main energy associated with this approaching system is going to hold off until the first and middle parts of next week.  be prepared for a rain shower or two on both saturday and sunday... but no long-lasting, heavy rainfall is expected.  it will likely be a different story by monday or tuesday, though.

temperatures will be on a steady warming trend right through the next 4-5 days.  in fact, it should remain fairly mild even at night... which means we might get to cut back on the heating energy!

FRIDAY: sunshine and a few patches of high clouds.  a pleasant day...
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and not as cool.
low: 7C (44F)

SATURDAY: a mix of both clouds and some sun.  chance of a passing shower by the afternoon.
high: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a couple of rain showers possible.  mild!
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with a better chance of a few periods of rain.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of occasional rain.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

Thursday, February 16, 2012

enjoying a break... (pm.16.feb.12)>

we have a pleasant evening in progress... with partly cloudy skies and milder temps than we've seen all week.  i recorded a high temp of 52.3F (11.3C), thanks to the fact that the sunshine definitely won the battle with the clouds today.

our latest wiggle aloft could do no more than muster some scattered clouds today... mainly over the mountains.  tomorrow looks even better, with a good amount of sunshine and slightly milder temperatures expected.  enjoy it while it lasts, because starting on saturday, we'll come under the influence of the next upper-level storm system to our west, which looks like it will move in slowly, but then be even slower to depart.  computer models are forecasting wet weather for the majority of next week.

the good news is that warmer air is bubbling up from the south, and should cause temperatures to rise in all levels of the atmosphere during the next several days.  at this point, it looks like the snow line should remain well above mcleod, naddi and dharamkot as the next batch of moisture moves in...

THURSDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 6C (43F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sunshine and a few clouds.  rather mild temps.
high: 12C (53F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or two by afternoon.  milder.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY: scattered rain showers possible, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of rain.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy.  more rain showers likely.
morning low: 11C (51F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

cloud-sun challenge... (am.16.feb.12)>

skies are partly cloudy before sunrise this morning.  i've recorded a low temp of 41.2F (5.1C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.

our weather pattern remains unsettled, with wave after wave of weak upper-level disturbances drifting through the western himalayan region.  we have another one of those in the area today, but i don't think it will do much more than prevent the sun from totally banishing the clouds, along with giving us at least a mentionable chance of a passing  rain shower at some point.  tomorrow (friday) still looks like the nicest day of the week, in advance of yet another weak storm system which is poised to affect us over the weekend into early next week with an increasing chance of occasional rain showers once again.

temperatures will remain on the "cool" side of normal today... but milder air is going to be gradually nosing its way in as we approach the weekend.  despite the clouds and rain potential, i think it will feel a lot more comfortable than it has for the past several days...

by the way... i've updated the SPRING/SUMMER OUTLOOK.  click the tab at the top of the page to check it out.

THURSDAY:  a mix of clouds and some sun.  a couple of brief, passing showers are possible.
high: 9C (49F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: maybe a brief evening shower, then partly cloudy.
low: 6C (42F)

FRIDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.  more comfortable.
high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and rather mild, with a risk of a PM shower.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few rain showers possible.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy, breezy and mild, with a good chance of occasional rain showers.
morning low: 10C (50F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

slightly better... (pm.15.feb.12)>

we have a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine at sunset this evening, at the end of a day that has featured a combination of sunshine, clouds and fog.  in fact, it almost looked like a mid-monsoon afternoon, with the thick fog between about 1:00 and 3:00pm.  there has been no measurable rainfall today... and the high temp reached 50.2F (10.1C) during the period of nice sunshine late this morning.

despite the lingering clouds and fog, today turned out nicer than anticipated... with at least a couple of hours of welcome sunshine, and a lack of rain for the first time since saturday.  there have been some scattered showers in himachal this afternoon and evening, but so far, they've avoided us.  those showers are a product of an upper-air pattern that remains unsettled... and which will remain a bit disturbed for the next several days at least.  for that reason, it's hard to completely remove the chance of a rain shower or two from the forecast... except for perhaps on friday, which i still think might be the best day of the whole week.

the computer models are flip-flopping on the intensity of a couple of approaching upper-level disturbances over the weekend into early next week.  it does look likely that temperatures will be milder, but we'll have to keep an eye on rainfall potential...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: chance of a passing shower, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 5C (41F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds, sun, and a period or two of fog.  one or two brief showers are possible.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of rain showers again.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

SUNDAY: chance of a shower or two in the area, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and mild.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a period or two of rain.
morning low: 9C (49F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

stagnation... (am.15.feb.12)>

we have clouds and some hazy/foggy stuff around the area early this morning.  additional rain showers last evening delivered another 0.23" (6mm) here on the upper side of mcleod ganj, and i recorded an overnight low temp of 41.5F (5.3C).

although there is no major, organized storm system in the area, we have nothing remotely resembling a fair weather pattern either.  relatively weak upper-level disturbances will continue to track across the area for the next several days... keeping us in line for occasional rain showers, and not much more than some fleeting glimpses of sunshine.  i'd say friday could be the best candidate for a semi-decent day before the next system nudges into the area for the weekend.

temperatures will stay quite cool through thursday, but then it looks like we'll get a gradual moderating trend started as the weekend approaches, keeping any precipitation in liquid form on both saturday and sunday...

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a continuing chance of some random showers popping up.
high: 9C (48F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy.  still a chance of a shower or two.
low: 5C (41F)

THURSDAY: clouds with a few peeks of sunshine.  a couple of brief rain showers possible.
high: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and more comfortable.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a chance of a few rain showers developing.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a random shower or two.  rather mild temps.
morning low: 9C (48F)
daytime high: 12C (54F)

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

winter gloom... (pm.14.feb.12)>

it's cloudy and murky and gloomy just before sunset this evening.  despite the rumbles of thunder around 4pm, rainfall today has been very light and spotty.  i've only measured 0.05" (1mm) since early this morning, but that does bring the total rainfall since early sunday up to 1.29" (3.3cm).  the thermometer moved very little today, with a high temp of just 46.0F (7.8C).

an active jetstream continues to flow across the western himalayan region and northern india, which will bring us a series of weak upper-level disturbances over the course of the next several days.  there is just no evidence of a bonafide clearing trend, with a significant amount of cloudiness, along with some scattered showers remaining in the forecast.  although precipitation will be generally light, it's still going to be a bit damp around the edges.  keep in mind that random pools of colder air aloft could covert rain showers to snow showers one of these days, just to remind us that it is still winter.

that potential weekend storm system we've been talking about doesn't look very dramatic at this point... but will at least keep us away from a string of dry and sunny days anytime soon...

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a period of two of rain showers still quite possible.
low: 5C (41F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a couple of showers in the area.
high: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine.  slight chance of a passing shower.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 8C (47F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and more comfortable.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: increasing clouds again, along with a chance of a few rain showers developing.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a couple of showers possible.
morning low: 6C (43F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

very little improvement... (am.14.feb.12)>

very windy early this morning... with mostly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles of rain.  i've only measured an additional 0.01" (less than 1mm) since last evening's report.  temperatures have been nearly steady since yesterday late afternoon... currently it is a relatively mild 44.4F (6.9C) here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center.

although the main storm system that swept through here late sunday and monday has moved east, the upper-atmospheric flow is full of disturbances, which will keep our weather rather active.  more off and on rain shower action is likely today, with gusty winds at times, and plenty of cloudiness.  as far as i can tell, the temperatures aloft have warmed a bit more, so at this point, i don't think we have to be concerned about snow... but things can change in an instant so i'm sure we'll all be keeping a close eye on that snow line!

no major, lasting clearing trends are expected as we head into the latter part of the week.  there will still be the potential for an occasional shower, with temperatures remaining below normal for this time of year.  also watching another more organized storm system for the weekend, but it isn't looking all that impressive just yet.

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with gusty winds at times.  good chance of occasional rain showers in the area.
high: 9C (49F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a period or two of rain still likely.
low: 5C (41F)

WEDNESDAY: maybe a little sun appearing... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain and/or snow showers possible.
high: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine.  one or two passing showers possible.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and more comfortable.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY: clouds thickening... chance of more rain showers developing late in the day.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

Monday, February 13, 2012

not finished yet... (pm.13.feb.12)>

a rather quiet evening in progress after a very active previous 24 hours.  i had another 0.63" (1.6cm) in the rain gauge since about 6:30am, bringing the total rainfall since very early sunday morning to 1.23" (3.1cm).  with some small breaks in the clouds this afternoon, the high temp reached 44.6F (7.0C).

there were just a few snowflakes in mcleod ganj this morning into the early afternoon, with very minor snow accumulations reported in dharamkot and naddi.  as expected, the significant snowfall has remained in the mountains above... at least up to this point.  our upper-level storm system is now centered over western kashmir, and will continue moving gradually eastward during the next 24 hours.  computer models are in a state of disarray over solutions from this point forward.  one model is ending the precipitation altogether, while another is insisting on the development of another round of significant rain and snow between now and tuesday night.  yet another offers something in between, which seems to be the way to go for now.  i think occasional rain and/or snow showers are still a good bet tonight and tuesday... with a painfully slow clearing trend thereafter.

the weather pattern will remain unsettled for the rest of the week, so don't expect a dramatic turn to sunny days and warm temps anytime soon.  in fact, we could be dealing with yet another potent storm system by the weekend...

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of more rain showers developing.  some snow could be mixed in as well.
low: 3C (37F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with a few rain and snow showers still in the area.
high: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a couple of rain and/or snow showers possible.
morning low: 3C (38F)
daytime high: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy.  just a slight chance of a brief shower.
morning low: 4C (40F)
daytime high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and milder.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY: becoming mostly cloudy again.  chance of some rain showers developing late.
morning low: 6C (43F)
daytime high: 11C (51F)

cold and soggy... (am.13.feb.12)>

we have light to moderate rain in the upper part of mcleod ganj before sunrise this morning.  i'm measuring 0.50" (1.3cm) since about 5 o'clock last evening... with a total of 0.60" (1.5cm) since late saturday night.  the low temp at my place has been 38.3F (3.5C)... keeping the precipitation in liquid form so far.

the snow line is obviously somewhere just above mcleod ganj, thanks to some relatively mild air in the middle layers of the atmosphere.  as this upper-level storm passes by over the course of the next 24-36 hours, we'll have to watch the potential for some colder air to get pulled into the mix... which could very easily change the rain to snow here at our elevation.  in any event, we're in line for more wet weather today and perhaps a good bit of tuesday as well.

it does look like we'll be gradually drying out during the middle of the week... with temperatures expected to rebound, at least temporarily.  unfortunately, computer models are already forecasting yet another significant storm system to impact the area over the coming weekend...

MONDAY: cloudy and cold with periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow, especially above mcleod.
high: 6C (43F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a good chance of more rain and/or snow in the area.
low: 2C (36F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with occasional rain and/or snow showers likely.
high: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few rain/snow showers still possible.
morning low: 3C (37F)
daytime high: 8C (46F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy.  slight chance of a brief shower.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and milder.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

Sunday, February 12, 2012

a precarious snow line... (pm.12.feb.12)>

precipitation has been fairly light thus far today... but we've had both rain and snow showers around the area.  i recorded a high temp of 47.3F (8.5C) early this afternoon as a little sunshine tried to peek through the cloud cover.

the coming 36 hours are going to be very interesting, as a strong upper-level storm system swings through northern india.  as we've already witnessed today, the rain/snow line is not far above mcleod ganj, and depending on the battle between differing air masses here along the front ranges of the mountains, we could see either a lot of rain, a significant dumping of snow, or something in between.  my gut says that the best snow potential remains above mcleod, but i wouldn't be surprised if i'm wrong!  stay tuned.

the best rain/snow chances will occur from tonight through late monday night... with things expected to gradually dry out by the middle of the week.  temperatures will struggle with all the clouds and wetness around, but there is a hint of a significant warm-up by friday.

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy skies with increasing periods of rain and/or snow.  a few strong wind gusts.
low: 2C (36F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy with rain and/or snow likely.  precipitation amounts could be heavy.
high: 6C (43F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  still some rain and snow showers in the area.
morning low: 2C (35F)
daytime high: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and a few peeks of sun.  a chance of a couple of rain/snow showers.
morning low: 2C (35F)
daytime high: 8C (46F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and not quite as cool.
morning low: 3C (38F)
daytime high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and milder.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)

wet or white?... (am.12.feb.12)>

i first heard some light rain at around 3:40am... and have 0.10" (3mm) in the rain gauge up here at the top of mcleod ganj on tushita road at the time of this posting.  the overnight low temp has been 40.5F (4.7C), and the humidity this morning stands at 62%.

those early morning showers are the first of many more to come in the next two or three days.  in fact, it is looking more and more likely that we'll see moderate to heavy amounts of rain as this new storm system moves through northern india, with a period of snowfall not out of the question.  right now i'm leaning toward the greatest snow potential remaining above us... but that could change quickly if some of the colder air aloft finds its way a bit further down the mountain.  as we all know... the rain/snow line is next to impossible to predict with any great degree of accuracy!  we get to watch and wait.

at any rate, late today through early tuesday morning should be the target timeframe for picking up the heaviest precipitation.  yes... another extended period of cold and wet weather looks to be inevitable...

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of a few periods of rain.
high: 8C (46F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy skies with rain likely.  rain could mix with or change to snow... mainly above mcleod.
overnight low: 3C (37F)

MONDAY: cloudy and cold with rain likely.  snow potential will be watched!!
high: 6C (43F)

TUESDAY: remaining mostly cloudy with a good chance of more rain and/or snow in the area.
morning low: 2C (35F)
daytime high: 6C (42F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few rain and snow showers around.
morning low: 2C (35F)
dayime high: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy skies.  a brief shower possible.
morning low: 3C (38F)
daytime high: 8C (47F)

Saturday, February 11, 2012

a new storm system... (pm.11.feb.12)>

it was a bright and sunny morning, but high clouds have been thickening up as the day progresses, and just before sunset, we have a mostly cloudy sky.  the high temp this afternoon was a relatively mild 54.1F (12.3C).

for those of you who've been here throughout... it goes without saying that it's been a rough winter.  the final two-thirds of february have a reputation for being one of the most variable and changeable times of the year.  some years, we get an early taste of springtime, with lots of sunshine and temperatures rebounding into the  low 70sF (21-24C).  other years have featured lots of overcast with periods of rain, sleet and snow... all the way until the end of the month.  at this point, it's looking like this year may turn out closer to the latter scenario.

currently, we have a brand new upper-level storm system organizing just to our west, which will be slowly pushing through northern india during the coming 72 hours or so.  there could be a shower or two developing late tonight, but the best chances of rain will be on sunday and monday... with some rain and/or snow showers lingering into tuesday and wednesday.  as always, it will be tricky to nail down the snow line, but based on temps in the middle layers of the atmosphere, i think most of the snow will stay above mcleod ganj, and possibly above naddi and dharamkot as well.  check back here for the latest developments...

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies.  one or two light showers are possible late.
overnight low: 6C (43F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain developing.  rainfall amounts could approach 1" (2.5cm) by late sunday night.
daytime high: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and cool.  more rain likely.
morning low: 5C (41F)
daytime high: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few rain and/or snow showers in the area.
morning low: 3C (38F)
daytime high: 7C (44F)

WEDNESDAY: clouds and a few peeks of sun.  still a good chance of a few scattered rain/snow showers.
morning low: 3C (37F)
daytime high: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy with a slight chance of a brief shower.
morning low: 3C (38F)
daytime high: 8C (47F)

Friday, February 10, 2012

wetness approaching again... (am.10.feb.12)>

although there is currently a break in the action, it appears that more wet weather is heading our way, especially by the latter half of the weekend.  a brand new storm system is getting its act together to our west, and will increase rain and snow chances once again.  it is always very difficult to nail down just where the rain/snow line will be, but at this point, it looks like gradually warmer air will be pulled northward, keeping us mainly in line for rain.  that could change by tuesday or wednesday, though, as colder air pours back in.  stay tuned for updates as things develop...

Thursday, February 2, 2012

february wet spell... (am.2.feb.12)>

a period of unsettled, potentially wet weather is again on the horizon for us, as we head into the first several days of the new month.  an upper-level storm system will slowly trek across northern india between now and sunday or monday, and will increase our chances of rain and possibly snow.

right now, it looks like the best precipitation chances will occur between friday and sunday... and moderate to heavy amounts of rain and/or snow are not out of the question.  at this moment (early thursday morning), i think the best heavy snow risk will be ABOVE the immediate mcleod ganj area... but this is very hard to predict ahead of time, and virtually impossible to monitor via resources available on the internet.  your first hand reports are essential... either here, or on facebook.

just be aware of yet another turn to inclement weather - effective immediately...