Friday, April 27, 2012

active pattern... (am.27.apr.12)>

There are a few breaks in the overcast just before sunrise this morning, otherwise it is mostly cloudy and 59.4F (15.2C).  I recorded a whopping 0.70" (1.8cm) of rain last night -- that makes a total of 1.11" (2.8cm) during the past two evenings.

As we've been discussing all week long, we're stuck in a very active weather pattern for this normally quiet time of the year.  The upper-level flow is brisk, with one disturbance after another tracking eastward across northern India.  As summertime heat lurks in the lower elevations just to our south, these disturbances and pools of cold air aloft are generating very unstable conditions nearly each afternoon, lasting well into the night.  The pattern will remain active all the way into early next week, which means we'll have to be braced for more rounds of showers and thunderstorms from time to time.  The sunshine won't be totally absent, however, so there should be some periods of pleasant weather in between the action.

The computer models are struggling big-time with temperatures during the next several days.  Actually, a seasonably warm air mass remains in place at the surface, but the amount of sunshine we're able to get is the key to being able to capitalize on the benefits.  Also, when thundershowers hit, the colder air aloft is temporarily brought down to the surface.  So... I guess that means we'll be on a bit of a roller-coaster ride, sometimes in the space of just a couple of hours...

FRIDAY:
a mix of clouds and some periods of sunshine.  chance of a thundershower developing during the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
a period of thundershowers possible... otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 14C (58F)

SATURDAY:
partly cloudy with a good chance of a couple of showers and thunderstorms in the area.
high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:
both clouds and some sun.  still a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.
morning low: 13C (56F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY:
partly sunny, breezy and unseasonably cool.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.
morning low: 13C (55F)
daytime high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  too cool for MAY, with a chance of more thundershowers.
morning low: 13C (55F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)