Sunday, April 15, 2012

a better outlook... (pm.15.apr.12)>

The sun has appeared again in the western sky this evening, after a very dark and ominous couple of hours late this afternoon.  There was thunder, a few sprinkles, and even some random small hail right around 5:00pm, but I didn't record anything measurable.  Thanks to sunshine during the morning and first half of the afternoon, the high temp at the top of McLeod Ganj reached a comfortable 71.4F (21.9C), which was warmer than expected.

As I scroll through the different weather charts and computer models, I'm seeing a rather challenging week ahead.  The general features include a gradually building ridge of high pressure, which should allow temperatures to return back to normal for this time of year... which is good news.  But the main concern during the next three days or so is the potential for instability remaining in the atmosphere, due to warming at the surface combined with some lingering cold pockets aloft.  Overall, I think we'll see the sunshine dominate, but isolated mainly afternoon and evening thundershowers are going to continue to develop over the mountains... providing us with an almost daily threat.  This scenario reminds me that there are only a handful of days during the warm seasons when afternoon thunder in the mountains is totally non-existent.

There will be yet another shift in the pattern by the end of the week, as a broad trough of low pressure and disturbed weather begins edging in from the west.  Our April rainfall is already way above normal... and it looks like we'll be adding to that once again by next weekend.

SUNDAY NIGHT:
a few thundershowers in the area before midnight... then clearing.
low: 12C (54F)

MONDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  an isolated PM thundershower?
high: 22C (71F)

MONDAY NIGHT:
risk of an evening shower, otherwise clear to partly cloudy.
low: 14C (57F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  risk of a period of thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  warming up.
morning low: 16C (60F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

THURSDAY:
a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 25C (77F)

FRIDAY:
partly cloudy and warm.  thunderstorm chances on the increase.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 26C (78F)