Friday, July 20, 2012

expectations... (am.20.jul.12)>

Our Friday morning is dawning with mostly clear skies and some light haze, along with very mild temperatures and humidity hovering around 90%.  I recorded an overnight low temp of 69.8F (21.0C), which is the warmest of the past two weeks.  There has been no rainfall since last report.

Apart from our brief but dramatic resurgence of monsoon fog/rain on Wednesday, monsoon conditions have been very feeble for about a week now.  I can hardly ever remember seeing so much sun and so many stars during the middle of July before!  I think it is becoming clear that Monsoon 2012 is going to turn out to be one of the weakest of the past decade... unless something drastic happens soon.  So far this year, the deep, rich and juicy tropical moisture has not been able to penetrate into northwest India for more than a couple of days at a time -- always retreating back to the southeast.  There have been indications for several days now that we will see a substantial surge over the weekend into the first half of next week... but it remains to be seen whether or not that will actually materialize.

At this point, I still expect an increasing chance of showers and thundershowers, along with more lengthy periods of clouds and fog as we progress through the weekend.  The drier air aloft this season has been tenacious, however, so I am lacking confidence that we'll really get socked in for an extended period.  Just be prepared for the rapid, sudden, dramatic changes we've grown used to this year... sun to clouds to fog to downpours to sun again!  Looking forward to seeing the new data this evening...

FRIDAY:
early sun giving way to clouds and some fog.  a couple of showers and/or thundershowers likely.
high: 25C (77F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with fog at times.  a period or two of showers/thundershowers likely.
low: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of clouds, fog and some sun at times.  a period or two of rain and thunder likely.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
mostly cloudy with some periods of fog.  occasional rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy.  occasional fog, rain and thunder.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 21C (71F)