the latest...

**WEDNESDAY 8:00AM -- I'm surprised to see an additional 0.70" (1.8cm) of rain in the gauge overnight. We also had some thunder, lightning and occasionally gusty winds during the wee hours.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

bye-bye march... (pm.31.mar.12)>

We have a layer of high clouds overhead just before sunset this evening.  After nearly full sunshine until 2:00pm, we've been contending with this high cloudiness... which has turned out to be more extensive than expected.  The high temperature made it up to 75.7F (24.3C), nonetheless.  But after getting used to the warm sunshine recently, it feels coolish this evening under the clouds.

Despite the gloomy-looking skies the past few hours, there is no rain threatening... at least not yet.  We still have a strong ridge of high pressure in place, but as temperatures warm even further in the upper atmosphere, we've seen this extensive area of high clouds develop across Pakistan and north India.  We should see a mix of sunshine and clouds again tomorrow, with an increase in the chance of a few scattered showers or thundershowers from Sunday night through Tuesday.  I'm still not confident that there is enough moisture available for us to receive any significant rainfall (greater than 1cm/0.40"), but we'll watch and hope.

This air mass will remain quite a bit warmer than normal for the end of March / beginning of April, so with even just a few hours of sunshine, thermometers will be rising well into the WARM zone.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
occasional high clouds.  mild.
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of sunshine and clouds.  WARM start to APRIL
high: 25C (77F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy and mild.  a shower or thundershower possible.
low: 18C (65F)

MONDAY:
both clouds and sun.  chance of a couple of showers or thundershowers around.
high: 24C (76F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy.  still a risk of a shower/thundershower.
morning low: 17C (62F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY:
partly to mostly sunny.  still on the warm side.
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY:
partly cloudy.  unseasonably warm.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

the time warp... (am.31.mar.12)>

It's kind of like we've stepped through a time warp during the last 24-36 hours.  We have full sunshine early this morning, and I've recorded an overnight low temp of 64.2F (17.9C), which is the warmest minimum temperature of the season.  Humidity is still very low... at 29%.

A summer-like weather pattern is now firmly established across northern India... providing the warmest temps of the year across a wide area.  It is getting truly HOT down on the plains, with highs expected to exceed 34-35C (93-95F) for the next 2 or 3 days at least.  The air mass is also very dry, so rain chances are slim and none... apart from a random, isolated shower that might develop over the mountains during the afternoons.  This scenario is ahead of schedule... something we would normally see in the middle of April or later.

Some weak upper-level disturbances will attempt to push from the west into this big high pressure ridge starting on Sunday night.  That will give us a little better chance of a passing shower or two during the early part of next week... but right now, nothing significant is expected, and temperatures will cool down only slightly.

SATURDAY:
sunshine this morning.  perhaps a few PM clouds.  unseasonably warm!
high: 26C (79F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
a few high clouds... othewise mostly clear.  very mild.
low: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds.  very warm to start APRIL.
high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy and warm.  chance of a shower or thundershower.
morning low: 18C (64F)
daytime high: 25C (77F)

TUESDAY:
a shower and /or thundershower possible, otherwise both clouds and sun.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY:
sun and occasional clouds.  still warm.
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

Friday, March 30, 2012

off the charts... (pm.30.mar.12)>

Some high clouds are drifting in from the west, as we approach sunset.  But sunshine has been the dominant feature of the day... which helped to boost our high temp to 76.6F (24.8C).  That was significantly warmer than expected, and also the warmest temperature of the year.  Humidity continues to hover around 35%.

Believe it or not, this atmosphere has even MORE warming to do during the coming two days at least... and that is going to put us well above normal for the March/April transition.  In fact, temps this weekend are going to be much more like the END of April.  An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build, creating generally stable conditions through most of Sunday, so it still looks like temperatures down toward Kangra will be around 34C (93F) for afternoon highs!

Some minor disturbances in the upper-level flow will begin to manifest early next week, which will increase our chance of some random shower and thundershower action.  Very little cooling is expected, however... so expect temps to remain above normal for perhaps another week or more...

FRIDAY NIGHT:
a few high clouds... otherwise mostly clear.  very mild.
low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  unseasonably warm.
high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
occasional high clouds.  WAY above normal temps!
low: 18C (64F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of sun and mainly high clouds.  WARM start to APRIL.
high: 26C (78F)

MONDAY:
chance of a shower or thunderstorm... otherwise partly cloudy.  still warm.
morning low: 18C (64F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy with a shower or thundershower possible.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  temps remaining above normal.
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

march warmth... (am.30.mar.12)>

We have 100% clear skies as the sun peeks over the mountains this morning.  It is very pleasant... I'm recording an overnight low of 59.5F (15.3C), and the humidity remains low, at 33%.

The clock is ticking on the month of March, and it looks like it will end quietly.  The weather pattern during the next few days will be dominated by a building ridge of high pressure throughout all levels of the atmosphere, which will keep sunshine in control, and allow temperatures to continue warming up.  I'm bumping up forecast temps across the board during the coming days... taking us higher than we've been this year so far.

There are indications that instability will be increasing over the mountains, day by day, so just be aware that cumulus clouds could start building during the afternoon hours, leading to the risk of an isolated shower.  Down here where we live, we could also start to see some random showers or thundershowers early next week, but nothing significant is expected, due to the severe lack of moisture in the air.

By the way, Kangra temps are forecast to be approaching 34-35C (93-95F) by Sunday... so get into a "summer" mindset if you're heading down the hill...

FRIDAY:
sunshine... with a few afternoon clouds.  warming up.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear.  mild.
low: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and warm.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  WARM start to APRIL.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 25C (77F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy.  risk of an isolated thundershower.
morning low: 18C (64F)
daytime high: 25C (77F)

TUESDAY:
both sun and clouds... an isolated thundershower possible.
morning low: 18C (64F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

Thursday, March 29, 2012

defining "perfection"... (pm.29.mar.12)>

The sun is in charge this evening... as it has been all day.  "Perfection" is a subjective term, as far as weather goes... but I wonder if we were pretty close today.?  My high temperature in the upper part of town was 72.1F (22.3C), which is only 2F shy of the warmest of the year on both the 18th and 19th of this month.

It appears that we are now on the brink of an extended stretch of warm weather that could mark a definite end to any lingering remains of the winter/spring transition.  A general ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere is building in, and should be the dominant weather feature for the next several days at least.  All computer models are in agreement that temperatures will gradually warm up right into early next week, so we're virtually assured of the warmest weather of 2012 over the weekend.  Apart from a few patches of high clouds, and the potential for cumulus development over the mountains during the PM hours, the sun should remain in control of our days.

Some minor disturbances will approach northern India by Sunday night or Monday, but right now I don't see anything that would bring us a shot at significant rainfall.  It looks like our spring dry season has gotten underway a bit early this year...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear and comfortable.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.  warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear.  mild.
low: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  warmest of 2012.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
sun and a few patches of clouds.  even warmer.  slight chance of an evening thundershower.
morning low: 17C (62F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  an isolated thundershower is possible.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy.  still warm, with a risk of a random shower or thundershower.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

dazzling day... (am.29.mar.12)>

For the first time all week, we have totally clear skies at sunrise.  My overnight low temp here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center is 57.6F (14.2C), which is the coolest I've recorded since last Friday morning.

But things will be warming up in a hurry.  In fact, we should be in line for the warmest temperatures of the season over the coming weekend... allowing us to end March and begin the month of April a couple of degress above normal.  Our atmosphere is stabilizing, as a massive ridge of high pressure starts to build across much of Pakistan and India.  This will force the jetstream well to our north, and give temperatures a chance to warm up... all the way from the surface into the highest reaches of the atmosphere.  You know the story... whenever we get a shift like this, we have to watch for a random shower over the mountains... but things should remain quiet for the most part for the next few days.

By Sunday night, the next set of weak disturbances aloft will start to edge into northern India, bringing a chance of some scattered showers or thundershowers early next week.  But if this last system is any indication of what kind of rainfall we might get, then it doesn't look very hopeful...

THURSDAY:
sun and a few clouds.  warming up.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:
mostly sunny and pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY:
plenty of sunshine.  warmest of the year?
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
becoming partly cloudy.  warm... with a slight chance of a thundershower by evening.
morning low: 17C (62F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

MONDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  still warm, with a shower or thundershower possible.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

dry and warmer... (pm.28.mar.12)>

Skies are mostly clear just prior to sunset this evening.  Clouds and gusty winds dominated the morning hours (even reports of a few raindrops here and there), but the sunshine took control during the afternoon.  My high temperature in the upper part of town was 69.4F (20.8C) at about 4pm.  Humidity is currently 35%.

The very tail end of our train of upper-level disturbances tried really hard to generate some showers this morning, but just like all its predecessors, it failed to do much more than give us some ugly skies for a couple of hours.  And that is the end of that.  We'll now be watching as a big ridge of high pressure builds across most of south Asia during the coming few days.  There could still be some patchy high clouds at times, as temperatures warm up throughout the upper atmosphere, but it looks like we'll be in line for a majority of sunshine, along with a steady warming trend.

If all goes according to plan, we'll be experiencing the warmest weather of 2012 this weekend, as March ends and April begins.  Rain chances will be very slim... unless a random thundershower over the mountains is able to gain some momentum.  Full-on summer on the plains to our south!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear early, partly cloudy late.
low: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY:
sunshine and some high clouds.  warmer.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.
low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:
mostly sunny... warming up.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  warmest of 2012?
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
partly to mostly sunny.  warm start to APRIL.
morning low: 17C (62F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy.  still warm, with a risk of a late day thundershower.
morning low: 17C (63F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)

sun-cloud combo... (am.28.mar.12)>

It's slightly cooler early this morning, but still very pleasant for this time of year.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 58.8F (14.9C), and the humidity at sunrise is 38%.  We have partly cloudy skies at the moment.

The very last upper-level disturbance in the series that has been moving across northern India during the past couple of days will pass by today.  All we've managed to squeeze out of any of these things has been a few sprinkles here and there, along with periods of cloudiness and some gusty winds at times.  We'll still have to keep an eye to the sky today, for that risk of a random shower or thundershower... otherwise we're in for a mix of clouds and sun once again.

A huge ridge of high pressure... almost summer-looking... will be building across the Indian sub-continent starting tomorrow.  The atmosphere should stabilize, allowing plenty of sunshine and a resumption of fairly aggressive warming for the last few days of March.  In fact, it looks like we will start the month of April with temperatures running a few degrees above normal...

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  still a risk of a shower or thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 14C (58F)

THURSDAY:
mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  still warming...
morning low: 16C (60F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy... warmest of the year?
morning low: 16C (61F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
partly sunny.  a warm start to APRIL.
morning low: 17C (62F)
daytime high: 24C (76F)