the latest...

**Assuming there is no more rain before midnight, we'll finish the month of April with 4.49" (11.4cm) -- the normal amount is just 1.90" (4.8cm).

Saturday, June 30, 2012

bizzaro... (pm.30.jun.12)>

It is mostly sunny and quite warm this evening.  The air quality has been better today than yesterday -- not nearly as much haze and dust around.  Although there was a moderate build-up of clouds over the mountains from mid-day into the late afternoon hours, it appears that there has been no thundershower activity anywhere near us.  I recorded a high temp of 88.5F (31.4C), which is far above normal for this final day of June.

The weather pattern dominating the western Himalayan region, including most of northwest India, is much more characteristic of the end of May, instead of the end of June.  In fact, temperatures today were only a couple of degrees shy of what they were exactly one month ago, when we were in the midst of the most significant heat wave of the summer season.  It looks like this calm high pressure dome is going to keep on for another couple of days, preventing much in the way of significant rainfall, and allowing temps to rise even a bit further as we greet July.

Then... a dramatic turn of events appears to be on the horizon.  Deep, rich, tropical moisture which has thus far remained well south and east of us this season is going to be pulled northwestward fairly rapidly during the middle of next week.  We should feel the increase in humidity as early as Tuesday, with rain chances gradually increasing on Wednesday into Thursday.  There's a good chance for us to be immersed in fog and occasional heavy rain showers during the latter half of the coming week!

SATURDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy and quite warm.
low: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY:
plenty of sunshine, with just a few clouds.  much warmer than normal for the 1st of July!
high: 32C (89F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy... warm.
low: 23C (74F)

MONDAY:
hazy sun and a few clouds.  still unseasonably warm/hot.
high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  humidity on the increase.
morning low: 24C (75F)
daytime high: 31C (87F)

WEDNESDAY:
both clouds and sun.  humid, with a good chance of a thundershower or two.
morning low: 24C (75F)
daytime high: 29C (84F)

THURSDAY:
mostly cloudy and very muggy.  good chance of a few periods of fog, rain, and thunder.
morning low: 23C (73F)
daytime high: 27C (80F)

unseasonable warmth... (am.30.jun.12)>

Hazy sunshine is in control early this Saturday morning.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and I recorded a low temp of 71.2F (21.8C).

An extensive area of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere covers all of the western Himalayan region, and should be our main weather feature for the next few days.  Although there is some pre-monsoon moisture/humidity in the lowest layers, it is dry and very warm aloft, and that should prevent widespread instability -- that means it will be hard to come up with anything more than perhaps an isolated thundershower in the mountains during the PM hours.  Apart from the moderate humidity, it is going to feel much more like early June than the June/July transition between now and Tuesday, with temperatures well above normal for this time of year.

This morning's computer model data continues to show an aggressive advance of monsoon conditions north and westward from Uttar Pradesh and Nepal by the middle of the coming week.  If things continue to develop the way the forecast models are indicating, we should see some radical changes around here starting as early as Wednesday, and especially by Thursday and Friday.  By one week from now, we may actually be immersed in genuine monsoon conditions...

SATURDAY:
hazy sun and occasional clouds.  very warm, with an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 30C (86F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
isolated evening thundershower?  otherwise becoming clear to partly cloudy.  rather warm.
low: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY:
unseasonably warm for the 1st of July!  a mix of hazy sun and a few clouds.
high: 31C (88F)

MONDAY:
very warm... with hazy sun and a few clouds.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  very warm and muggy.
morning low: 24C (75F)
daytime high: 31C (87F)

WEDNESDAY:
partly cloudy and more humid... chance of a thundershower or two.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 29C (84F)

Friday, June 29, 2012

monsoon: absent... (pm.29.jun.12)>

Our air mass is full of haze and dust this evening... otherwise skies are partly cloudy.  Humidity has been right around 55% today, which is high compared to what it was a couple of weeks ago, but not that impressive in relation to what it will be a week or so from now.  There was a little thunder during the mid-afternoon, but I'm not aware of any rainfall in the immediate McLeod Ganj area.  The high temp at my location on Tushita Road in the upper part of town reached 84.9F (29.4C).

It is hard to believe we've normally experienced a few days of genuine monsoon conditions by this date, considering the generally quiet and warm weather we've been dealing with for the past 48 hours or so.  During the monsoon season, it's not that unusual to get a stretch of a few days without much rainfall, but humidity rarely dips below 75-80% even if it isn't raining... and the fog is never too far away.  That's why it's a bit surreal to be in this phase that is at least 10 days behind schedule.  Yet another bubble of high pressure in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will shield us from any appreciable advance of deep, rich tropical moisture into the first part of next week.  Keep in mind the potential for a random period of thundershowers at some point -- mainly during the PM hours -- otherwise our weather will feature a majority of hazy sunshine along with temps running way above normal.

Successive new runs of the computer model data continue to point to the latter half of next week for a very aggressive forward advance of monsoon conditions into parts of central and northern India.  Although we may not get an "official" monsoon onset declaration, I think we'll see some radical changes by Wednesday into Thursday.

FRIDAY NIGHT:
slight chance of a thundershower... otherwise partly cloudy and quite warm.
low: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY:
hazy sun and some clouds and unseasonably warm.  an isolated PM thundershower?
high: 30C (86F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
rather warm, with clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:
hazy sun and a few clouds with a risk of some afternoon thunder. way above normal temps for JULY.
high: 31C (88F)

MONDAY:
unseasonably warm with hazy sun and just a few clouds.
morning low: 24C (75F)
daytime high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun, haze and some clouds.  humidity on the rise...
morning low: 24C (75F)
daytime high: 31C (87F)

WEDNESDAY:
both clouds and some sun.  more humid, with a good chance of a period of showers and thundershowers.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 29C (84F)

rebuilding heat... (am.29.jun.12)>

Nearly 100% sunshine very early on this Friday morning is already sending temperatures upward.  I recorded an overnight low of 71.6F (22.0C), which is the warmest in exactly one week -- since before our first round of pre-monsoon moisture arrived.  There has been no rainfall in the past 24 hours.

North Indian summer is going to attempt to have another go during the coming several days, as Monsoon 2012 remains at a standstill well to our south and east.  High pressure in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere is already building, and will provide an unusually warm, dry and sunny period of weather for this time of year.  There could still be some afternoon/evening thundershower development, mainly over the mountains -- so keep that in mind -- but if rainfall does occur between today and Tuesday of next week, it should be far less than the 4.66" (11.8cm) we received between this past Saturday and Wednesday.

Temperatures should be on the order of 4-5C (8-10F) above normal during the next several days, as we transition from June to July.  However, computer model data is still pointing to a major surge in moisture across north India during the latter half of next week, which would cut temps and increase heavy rain chances once again.

FRIDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and very warm.  chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 30C (86F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
an isolated evening thundershower possible, otherwise clear to partly cloudy and quite warm.
low: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  unseasonably warm, with a risk of a passing thundershower in the PM.
high: 31C (87F)

SUNDAY (1ST OF JULY):
sunny to partly cloudy and very warm.  isolated PM thundershower?
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 31C (88F)

MONDAY:
hazy sun and just a few clouds.  extremely warm for July.
morning low: 24C (75C)
daytime high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds -- a little more humid.
morning low: 24C (75F)
daytime high: 31C (87F)

Thursday, June 28, 2012

atypical... (pm.28.jun.12)>

It looks nothing like a typical late June evening... we have mostly sunny skies, and warmer than normal temps in progress.  Humidity has been moderately high all day (in the 50% range), and I recorded a high temp of 85.6F (29.8C).  Today has been the first day since last Wednesday (20th June) without so much as a single drop of rain.

Isolated thundershowers did develop further up in the mountains during the early to mid-afternoon hours, but failed to gain much momentum, dissipating for the most part by about 4:00pm.  This is an indication that our regularly unstable air mass of the past several days is becoming more stable -- mostly due to the resurgence of warmer air aloft.  Although there could still be a period of pre-monsoon thundershowers from time to time, it looks like we're heading into a stretch of somewhat drier and noticeably warmer weather starting this weekend, and progressing into early next week.

We've already passed the day of the "average" arrival of the monsoon season in the Dharamsala area (27th June) -- so, like the rest of India, we are going to have a delayed start this year.  Current data points to a major advance of monsoon conditions into northern India by this time next week.  As usual, stay tuned!

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy and rather muggy... but a chance of a round of thundershowers late.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun... a thundershower possible.  very warm.
high: 29C (84F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
an early evening thundershower?  otherwise clear to partly cloudy and quite warm.
low: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and unseasonably warm.  a PM thundershower?
high: 30C (86F)

SUNDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  very warm for the start of JULY.  an isolated PM thundershower?
morning low: 23C (73F)
daytime high: 30C (86F)

MONDAY:
hazy sun and a few clouds... still much warmer than normal.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 31C (87F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of hazy sun and some clouds.  very warm, with humidity increasing again by PM.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 30C (86F)

pre-monsoon moodiness... (am.28.jun.12)>

It's another very pleasant morning, with sunshine and a few clouds at this early hour.  There has been no additional rainfall overnight, and I recorded an overnight low of 68.2F (20.1C).  Yesterday's 1.70" (4.3cm) deluge brings us up to 5.18" (13.2cm) for the month of June, which is still more than 3 inches below normal.

Can we expect another huge downpour today?  Moderate humidity lingers, but there are indications that the atmosphere may start to stabilize a bit during the coming few days.  Still, due to the strong heating of the sun and that lingering low-level moisture, I think it's wise to keep in mind the potential for a rapidly developing thundershower again -- not only today, but tomorrow and Saturday as well.  As we've witnessed first-hand, we've reached the time of year when we can pick up a tremendous amount of rain in a short period of time... and then return to full sunshine very quickly.  Pre-monsoon schizophrenia.

For the past several days, the computer models have been very consistent in drying things out and warming things up significantly over the weekend into early next week, as a high pressure ridge strengthens over northern India.  This kind of pattern is very unsual for the first days of July, and should keep the northern limit of the monsoon from advancing in our direction for a while longer yet...

THURSDAY:
a mix of sunshine and clouds.  potential for a round of thundershowers mid-day into the afternoon.
high: 27C (81F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
risk of a thundershower in the vicinity, otherwise partly cloudy and mild.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and warmer.  a PM thundershower possible.
high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY:
chance of a PM thundershower, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy and unseasonably warm.
morning low: 22C (71F)
daytime high: 29C (84F)

SUNDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds... warm for JULY.  an isolated PM thundershower?
morning low: 23C (73F)
daytime high: 29C (85F)

MONDAY:
hazy sun and a few clouds.  still unseasonably warm.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 30C (86F)

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

radical swings... (pm.27.jun.12)>

After several wild swings today, we're back to partly cloudy skies this evening, with a couple of thundershowers still in progress over northwestern Himachal Pradesh.  We had bright sunshine early this morning -- an explosion of clouds between 9:00 and 10:00am -- an intense period of rain and thunder from 11:15am until about 1:30pm (which included some brief fog) -- a return to stunning sunshine for the remainder of the afternoon -- and now, a mix of clouds and sun.  I recorded a massive 1.70" (4.3cm) of rain during our mid-day downpour, along with temps which dropped from a high of 80.8F (27.1C) before the deluge, to a chilly 63.3F (17.4C) in the midst of it.

So... it has been quite a day... and this is what the pre-monsoon season is all about.  Today's mammoth downpour and accompanying fog was very characteristic of monsoon conditions, but then the rapid return to sunshine and much lower humidity was not.  For a long time now, I've been talking about the transitional, mixed bag, in-between character of this period of time (sometimes days, sometimes a few weeks) before the monsoon establishes itself.  It's crazy how wildly and dizzyingly things can change during this phase.

Deep, rich tropical moisture is still being prevented from claiming northwest India, thanks to a west-northwestly flow which remains in control in the middle and upper atmosphere.  However, there is enough low-level humidity surging back and forth from the southeast to keep us in line for more occasional shower and thundershower action.  Remain braced for sudden changes -- although there are still indications that the risk of these downpours could diminish over the weekend into early next week.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy skies.  a thundershower in the area?
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY:
a mix of sunshine and clouds.  good chance of a period of rain and thunder at some point during the day.
high: 27C (81F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
risk of a thundershower... otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and occasional clouds.  a thunderstorm possible, mainly in the PM.
high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and unseasonably warm.  chance of a PM thundershower.
morning low: 22C (72F)
daytime high: 29C (84F)

SUNDAY:
hazy sun and a few clouds.  too warm for JULY.
morning low: 23C (73F)
daytime high: 29C (85F)

MONDAY:
hazy sun and a few clouds.  still unseasonably warm.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 29C (85F)

sun - shower risk... (am.27.jun.12)>

Another beautiful morning is shaping up, with sunshine and just a few small patches of clouds.  Temperatures are quite pleasant -- I recorded an overnight low of 68.5F (20.3C) -- and there has been no additional rainfall since the 0.21" (5mm) we received mid-day yesterday.

It looks like we're going to remain in this "mixed bag" weather pattern for the next several days.  Although pockets of pre-monsoon moisture continue to sprawl along the front ranges of the mountains from western Nepal, northwestward into Himachal, the flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere remains from the west-northwest.  This set-up will prevent genuine monsoon conditions from making any headway into the northwest third of India, but will keep us flirting with scattered thundershowers from time to time, which could be capable of dumping some moderate to heavy rainfall during a brief period.  As I mentioned last evening, it is an "in-between" situation -- we've left the very warm and bone-dry days of summer behind, but have a ways to go before we reach the 80-100% saturation, fog, and consistent heavy rains of the monsoon season.

Actually, if anything, we may see a reversion to more summer-like conditions over the weekend, as temperatures rise well above normal, and pre-monsoon moisture retreats a bit.  Stay tuned as we continue to muddle our way through this drawn out season of transition...

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sunshine and periods of cloudiness.  good chance of some thundershowers in the area.
high: 27C (80F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
a couple of thundershowers in the area, otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  a thundershower possible, mainly PM.
high: 27C (81F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  a PM thundershower possible.
morning low: 21C (70F)
daytime high: 28C (83F)

SATURDAY:
unseasonably warm, with hazy sunshine and a few clouds.  an isolated PM thundershower?
morning low: 22C (72F)
daytime high: 29C (84F)

SUNDAY (1ST OF JULY):
a mix of hazy sun and occasional clouds.  abnormally warm!
morning low: 23C (73F)
daytime high: 29C (85F)