the latest...

**Assuming there is no more rain before midnight, we'll finish the month of April with 4.49" (11.4cm) -- the normal amount is just 1.90" (4.8cm).

Monday, July 30, 2012

our latest deluge... (am.30.jul.12)>

*3:37pm... Rainfall since midnight --  2.03" (5.2cm).  Total during the past 24 hours -- 3.03" (7.7cm).


*12:09pm... 1.77" (4.5cm) of rain since midnight.  Total since last evening now stands at 2.77" (7.0cm).  Rain intensity as been on the lighter side for the past several hours, but we could see some occasional heavier showers this afternoon.  My temp has been steady near 69F (20.6C) all morning.


*9:03am...  Now 1.67" (4.2cm) since midnight.  Rainfall total since this all began last evening is now 2.67" (6.8cm).  Still lots of shower/thundershower action over the western half of Himachal Pradesh, so it looks like amounts will continue to tick upward.


*7:05am... The big rains have returned.  I've measured 2.31" (5.9cm) between 8:20pm last evening and 7:00am this morning.  1.31" (3.3cm) of that has occurred since midnight.  Still raining moderately, with some thunder and lightning in the area.  Our early morning temp is 68.9F (20.5C).

Sunday, July 29, 2012

everywhere gray... (pm.29.jul.12)>

Plenty of clouds and fog around the area this evening, along with some patches of drizzle here and there.  I've only recorded a trace of rain since this morning's report, so we remain at 0.40" (1.0cm) since midnight, and just over one inch (2.6cm) in the past 24 hours or so.  There were some brief glimpses of sun again today, but clouds and fog definitely dominated -- my high temp in the upper part of town was able to struggle to just 73.0F (22.8C).

*Update @ 1015pm... Heavier rain again at the moment.  Rain gauge shows 0.60" (1.5cm) in the past two hours... but it looks like there is plenty more to come...

*Update @ 940pm...  Steady light to moderate rain, along with some thunder/lightning.  Now 0.49" (1.2cm) of rain since about 825pm at my location in upper McLeod Ganj.  No power.

*Update @ 904pm...  Thick fog, dead-calm wind, and rainfall intensity on the increase.  I have 0.17" (4mm) in the past 40 minutes.  Also a bit of thunder/lightning.

*Update @ 826pm... Brand new showers developing overhead and points south at the moment.  A few flashes of lightning as well.  Will update if development continues...

I was expecting more rain development today than we've seen so far.  This air mass is fully saturated, so all we're waiting for is some kind of a dynamic trigger to set things off.  Several times recently, that trigger has come in the form of cooling aloft after the sun sets, which creates just enough instability to allow all of this moisture-laden air near the surface to rapidly rise and condense into showers and thundershowers.  Whatever the case, it's very likely that we're not far away from our next round of moderate to heavy rainfall. I still think we could get slammed with a period of 2-3" (5-8cm)+ rains before the next 24-36 hours are up.

There are no major changes in the general weather pattern expected during the coming week.  If we're lucky, we'll get a period or two of sunshine here and there, along with humidity perhaps briefly dipping below 90% -- otherwise we'll remain very close to the saturation point most of the time, with occasional moderate to heavy downpours likely.  In other words, August should begin in roughly the same fashion that July ends...

SUNDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  a period or two of rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (67F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy.  occasional fog, rain and thunder likely.
high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  a couple of periods of rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy skies.  periods of fog, rain and some thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY:
a couple of sunshine breaks?  otherwise clouds, fog, and a couple of showers/thundershowers.
morning low: 20C (68F)
daytime high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  occasional rain and some thunder.
morning low: 20C (68F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY:
clouds, fog and some rain/thunder likely.  also good chance of some sun appearing.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

thick-rich-juicy... (am.29.jul.12)>

Clouds and fog are the dominant features across our area early this Sunday morning.  There have been off-and-on showers, along with some rumbles of thunder overnight, and I have a fresh 0.40" (1.0cm) in my rain gauge since midnight.  The running total/averages can be found on the JULY RAINFALL tab (above).  Temperatures have moved very little in the past 24 hours... my low temp here in the upper part of town has been 68.2F (20.1C).

Very thick, rich and juicy tropical moisture is now firmly in control once again across Himachal Pradesh and most of the rest of northern India.  A southerly flow is pumping more and more moisture into the area, which has been squeezed out in the form of occasional rain showers.  I'm waiting for the next period of truly heavy rainfall to manifest... with this air mass in place, it won't take too much instability to generate some downpours worthy of dumping more than an inch of rain in a short period of time.  The risk of that happening will be increasing today through Tuesday.  In fact, we could be candidates for picking up 2-3" (5-8cm), or more, in a 24 hour period.  Be prepared.

Computer model data indicates that these healthy monsoon conditions should remain with us all the way through this new week.  There will likely be some brief periods of sunshine and humidity backing down from the 95-100% range from time to time, but those little respites should be relatively short-lived.

SUNDAY:
clouds, fog, and perhaps a glimpse or two of sun.  occasional rain and some thunder likely.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
clouds and fog, with periods of rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (67F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  periods of rain and some thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy skies... periods of fog, rain and some thunder.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY:
perhaps some sun at times... otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy.  a few showers and thundershowers in the area.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY:
clouds, fog, and a peek or two of sun.  more rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

Saturday, July 28, 2012

accumulating... (pm.28.jul.12)>

As I write, we have some moderate to heavy showers in progress in the middle of the main market, along with thick clouds and fog.  Rainfall as of about 5:00pm had only been 0.11" (3mm), but that has obviously changed in the past hour or so -- updated rainfall amounts will be added here later this evening.  There were some fleeting glimpses of sun this morning and very early this afternoon, otherwise clouds and fog have been in control.  I recorded a high temp of 73.2F (22.9C).

*Update @ 955pm... Some thunder and lightning and drizzle/light showers during the past couple of hours.  Total rainfall today now stands at 0.65" (1.7cm).

*Update @ 732pm... Our moderate-heavy showers between 530-700pm have yielded 0.51" (1.3cm) of rain, which brings our total since midnight up to 0.62" (1.6cm).  More development likely tonight...

Up until these heavier showers that have developed this evening, rainfall has been quite light since Thursday morning.  We've definitely had a bit of a lull in the action, but it looks like the potential for more long-lasting, heavy rainfall will be on the rise as the new week arrives.  There is plenty of low-level moisture around -- what has been lacking the last 48 hours or so is saturated conditions in the higher levels of the atmosphere, along with a lack of the instability necessary to generate widespread shower/thundershower action.  Already this evening we're seeing deeper moisture push into the area from the south and southeast... so the next phase is already getting underway.

As I've mentioned several times... the normal rainfall for the month of July is very close to 40" (101.6cm).  That is an immense amount of rainfall for one month in virtually any part of the world!  It looks like we'll exceed 30" (76.2cm) by Tuesday night, the 31st, but it's going to take quite a few epic downpours for us to catch up to normal.  Still, we'll have a respectable total, considering the late start to the monsoon season this year, and the lag we experienced during the middle of the month.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  occasional fog, with some periods of rain and thunder.
low: 19C (67F)

SUNDAY:
clouds, fog, and a peek or two of sunshine.  a couple of rounds of rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  occasional rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (67F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy... periods of fog, rain and thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
clouds, fog and occasional rain.  thunder possible as well.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY:
clouds, fog, and a couple of periods of sun.  a couple of rounds of showers/thundershowers.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY:
mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and some thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

soggy and damp... (am.28.jul.12)>

It is partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy fog around the area early on this Saturday morning.  There have been more scattered light showers overnight, and even a period of thunder just before dawn, but I've only measured an additional 0.09" (2mm) of rain since last evening's report -- that leaves us with 0.19" (5mm) during the past 24 hours.  My overnight low temperature here in the upper part of town was 68.2F (20.1C).

Although we've had occasional showers/thundershowers developing and drifting through, rainfall amounts have been very light since mid-morning on Thursday when our most recent deluge ended.  We've been in the midst of a lull in the action, due to some slightly drier air in the upper-levels, and a lack of robust instability.  There will likely be more development of showers and thunder today and tonight, but at the moment, it looks like tomorrow (Sunday) into Tuesday will be our next window of opportunity for picking up some heavier rainfall amounts.  It's looking less and less likely that we'll be able to reach our normal July total of 38-40" (96-102cm) -- unless we really get creamed during the next four days.

I don't know about you, but I'm having a really tough time getting any laundry to dry.  With humidity remaining consistently above 90%, and staying near 100% for hours on end, we've definitely reached the point when dampness and sogginess has become the way of life...

SATURDAY:
some glimpses of sun possible, otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  a round or two of showers/thundershowers likely.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  good chance of a couple of showers and thundershowers in the area.
low: 19C (67F)

SUNDAY:
mostly cloudy.  periods of fog, rain and some thunder likely.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy at times, with periods of rain and thunder.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
clouds, fog, rain and some thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY:
a period or two of sun?  otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  occasional rain and some thunder still likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

Friday, July 27, 2012

inevitable components... (pm.27.jul.12)>

It is mostly cloudy and foggy this evening, but there have been some brief glimpses of sun as well.  Random showers have been moving in and out of the area since about 3:30pm, but so far, they have been generally light and short-lived.  I'll be back with a rain gauge report later this evening, but up until 5:00pm, there had been nothing measurable (*Update @ 750pm... just 0.10"/3mm of rain for the day thus far).  The high temp at my place just below the mountaineering center on Tushita Road reached 75.7F (24.3C), thanks to the few appearances of sunshine today.

We're awaiting our next episode of significant rainfall, which will inevitably materialize.  As I mentioned this morning, there has been some drier air which has seeped into parts of the middle and upper-atmosphere, reducing the overall moisture content of our very tropical air mass.  This slightly drier air will hold on until perhaps mid-day Sunday, and should provide us with a bit of sunshine/stars here and there, and prevent the clouds and thick fog from completely taking over.  There are still going to be periods of rain and possibly some thunder, with the ever-present risk of heavy downpours developing both day and night.

It looks like 100% saturation will return to all layers of the atmosphere by the latter part of the weekend, which will increase the prevalence of fog while also giving us a better chance of some longer-lasting spells of moderate to heavy rain.  It's looking especially wet from Sunday evening through Tuesday, when we'll get an opportunity to add several inches of rain to our July total before the month is out...

FRIDAY NIGHT:
clouds and fog, along with a few glimpses of moon and stars.  another round or two of showers likely.  some thunder possible as well.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY:
a period or two of sun in the midst of clouds and occasional fog.  a couple of showers/thundershowers likely.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with some fog at times.  good chance of a couple of showers/thundershowers.
low: 20C (68F)

SUNDAY:
some morning sun?  otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with periods of rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  periods of rain and thunder.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
clouds, fog, occasional rain and some thunder.
morning low: 19C (66F)
datyime high: 22C (72F)

WEDNESDAY:
clouds, fog and some sun at times.  a couple of periods of rain/thunder likely.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

some bright moments... (am.27.jul.12)>

The sun is visible as it rises over the Dhauladars early on this Friday morning -- for the first time (at sunrise) since last weekend.  There was heavy dew this morning though, which is indicative of humidity which remains close to 100%.  I recorded no additional rainfall overnight, and the low temperature has been 66.0F (18.9C).

This morning's sunshine probably won't last for long, due to the great amount of moisture in the air which should quickly condense out into clouds and fog.  Our winds aloft have turned back to the west, for the most part, and that has allowed the return of some drier air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  This situation should continue through Saturday, which may provide us with a few sunny breaks, and keep us from spending as much time at or near the point of full saturation, as we've experienced most of the time since last Sunday afternoon.  Despite that, there is still a very good chance of shower and thundershower development at any time, so keep the umbrella handy.

The super-juicy, deep tropical moisture will reclaim its territory by Sunday, and that will lead to our next rather strong phase of monsoon conditions for at least the first half of next week.  I think it's likely that we'll pick up another 6-8" (15-20cm) of rain by the end of the month -- that would land us near 30" (76cm), which is still only about 75% of normal for July.

FRIDAY:
early sunshine giving way to mostly cloudy skies and some fog at times.  a couple of showers or thundershowers likely.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy with occasional fog.  good chance of a round of thundershowers.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sun, clouds and occasional fog.  a period of showers and thunder likely at some point during the day.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
some early sun possible, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  a round or two of showers and thundershowers likely.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  periods of rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and some thunder.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

Thursday, July 26, 2012

lush and green... (pm.26.jul.12)>

It is mostly cloudy this evening with some patches of fog, but also some breaks in the overcast, allowing a glimpse or two of sun.  I've recorded a total of 3.31" (8.4cm) of rain today since midnight, but by far, the heaviest occurred between about 6:45am and 9:45am, when 3.11" (7.9cm) of that total fell.  It was the heaviest rainfall in such a short period of time (just 3 hours) of this monsoon season.  We did manage to get a couple of hours of sunshine right in the middle of the day, however, which allowed my high temp to hit 73.9F (23.3C) in the upper part of town.

This morning's torrential rainfall brings us up to 23.60" (59.9cm) for the month of July, which is a bit more respectable.  We're still about 16" (40.6cm) short of the normal total for July, but with more than six days to go, and a fairly active monsoon pattern in place, it's not impossible for us to draw close.  There has been some slightly drier air being pulled in from the west in the wake of our rainstorm last night and this morning, but not enough to cut off the fetch of tropical moisture and significantly diminish rain chances.  It's likely that a few drier periods and peeks of sun will appear both Friday and Saturday, but the risk of a moderate to heavy downpour of rain will never be too far away.

According to the computer models, late Sunday into Tuesday could be the next phase of very saturated conditions and long-lasting rains -- which would be just in time to boost our final rainfall totals for the month.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with fog at times.  good chance of another period or two of rain and thunder developing.
low: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY:
clouds, fog, and a bit of sun at times.  some rain likely, along with possible thunder.
high: 23C (74F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with some fog at times.  a couple of showers/thundershowers in the area.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY:
 a period or two of sun... otherwise mostly cloudy with some fog.  a couple of showers/thundershowers likely.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY:
mostly cloudy with occasional fog, rain and some thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:
clouds, fog, rain and some thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and some thunder.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

torrential rains... (am.26.jul.12)>

Yesterday's high temp: 73.0F (22.8C)
This morning's low temp: 66.7F (19.3C)
Rainfall since 10pm last night: 0.63" (8mm)
Rainfall in past 24 hours: 0.82" (1.2cm)

As you can see, rainfall amounts have not been heavy up to now, although it has been raining off and on since last evening.  We also had quite a thunder and lightning show last night, but not a lot of rain to go with it.  Heavier rain has kicked in at the time of this posting (7am), and there are numerous areas of rain and a few thundershowers drifting through north India -- so amounts will be adding up.

*Update @ 9:52am... Now 3.02" (7.7cm) in just over 3 hours.  Light to moderate rain in progress.

*Update @ 8:50am... 2.72" (6.9cm) of rain since 6:45am.  2.92" (7.4cm) since midnight.  Rain has stopped for the moment, but redevelopment could occur at any time, from the way the satellite pics are looking.

*Update @ 8:07am... 2.5" (6.4cm) since 6:45am!!  Definitely the most intense/torrential downpour of the season... and still raining quite heavily.

*Update @ 740am... Just in the half hour that i was composing this morning's post, much steadier, heavier rain has set in.  Since 6:45am, I have exactly one inch (2.5cm) in my rain gauge, and still pouring.


If we are fortunate, we may see some breaks in the clouds during the coming few days, allowing some sun to peek through -- otherwise, it looks like classic mid-monsoon conditions are here to stay.  Expect a predominance of clouds, fog, and occasional periods of rain and thunder right through the forecast period.

I'll do my best to keep rainfall totals updated here, and on the JULY RAINFALL tab at the top of the page.

THURSDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  occasional rain and some thunder... VERY HEAVY RAIN this morning.
high: 22C (72F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy with fog at times.  more periods of rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (66F)

FRIDAY:
some peeks of sun?  otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy at times.  another round or two of rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY:
clouds, fog, and perhaps a period of sunshine.  a couple of periods of rain/thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:
mostly cloudy and foggy.  periods of rain and some thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:
clouds and fog, along with periods of rain and thunder.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)