the latest...

**Assuming there is no more rain before midnight, we'll finish the month of April with 4.49" (11.4cm) -- the normal amount is just 1.90" (4.8cm).

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

october's end... (pm.31.oct.12)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
Afternoon high temp: 66.6F (19.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's another perfect autumn evening, after what could easily be called a perfect final day of October.  We've seen less and less cumulus cloud development over the mountains over the course of the past several days, and today, the sunshine was pretty much unlimited.  This afternoon's high temp matched yesterday's, so our recent warm-up appears to have plateaued -- for now.

General high pressure is expected to remain in control from the surface into the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere until Saturday, and that will keep us in this mostly sunny and warmer-than-normal mode.  Rain chances are very close to zero as we approach the weekend, while temperatures could rise another couple of degrees -- both overnight lows and afternoon highs.

Some pockets of colder air aloft will begin to filter into northern India by late Saturday and Sunday which will increase our instability a bit, while halting the warming trend that has been going on for more than a week.  There still doesn't appear to be much of a chance of significant rainfall on the horizon; nor does a dramatic cooling trend look likely any time soon...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
clear skies... unseasonably mild.
low: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  unseasonably warm start to november.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy, rather mild.
low: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  warmer than normal.
high: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds at times.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 19C (67F)

SUNDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  a bit cooler.
morning low: 13C (55F)
daytime high: 18C (65F)

MONDAY:
both sunshine and occasional clouds.
morning low: 12C (53F)
daytime high: 17C (64F)

spectacular... (am.31.oct.12)>

My overnight low temp here in the upper part of town was 55.8F (13.2C), which is the warmest I've recorded since Tuesday morning of last week.  Skies are totally clear at sunrise.

Spectacular weather should continue for the next two or three days, at least, with plenty of sunshine interrupted only by a few afternoon cumulus clouds over the mountains.  There's really no change to the ongoing forecast, so scroll down to last night's post for specifics>>

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

unusually mild... (pm.30.oct.12)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 55.2F (12.9C)
Afternoon high temp: 66.6F (19.2C)
Rainfall: none

We're in the middle of one of the most calm and uneventful weather patterns we ever get here along the front ranges of the western Himalayas.  The jet stream is very weak, temperatures aloft are quite warm, and moisture is low throughout all levels of the atmosphere.  This is allowing us to continue enjoying generally sunny skies, along with temperatures which are running above normal for the end of October.

There shouldn't be any significant change to this scenario for the next three days or so, which means we'll keep our gradual warm-up going, along with lots of sunshine and very minimal chances of rainfall.  We even have a shot at hitting 70F (21.1C) -- most likely on Thursday or Friday.

Hints of some subtle changes are appearing on the horizon starting this weekend.  Some cooler air is forecast to begin arriving in the mid- and upper-levels as early as Saturday, which could increase instability and cloud development, while eventually cutting temperatures a few degrees.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
clear skies.  relatively mild temps.
low: 13C (56F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunshine and a few PM mountain clouds.  very pleasant temps.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear.  mild.
low: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY:
sunshine and just a few PM clouds.  unseasonably warm.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy... still warmer than normal.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds.  cooling off a bit.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 19C (67F)

SUNDAY:
both sunshine and some clouds. cooling trend...
morning low: 13C (55F)
daytime high: 18C (65F)

Monday, October 29, 2012

way nice... (pm.29.oct.12)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
Rainfall: none

A very very very calm and quiet evening underway as the light fades on the western horizon.  Temperatures today were pretty much as expected -- rising above normal for the end of October.  There was very little cloudiness at all today, with just some puny cumulus clouds developing over the mountain peaks during the afternoon.

Our general weather pattern remains rather "featureless", with a sprawling area of high pressure extending from Pakistan across most of northern India.  This is providing a weak west-to-east flow aloft, and a bubble of warm air (for this time of year) to dominate the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.  Conditions are stable, and should remain that way for the remainder of the week.  Excellent rooftop chai-drinking weather, for sure... not to mention great timing for the HHDL teachings.

Temperatures have been slowly but steadily moderating since Saturday, and that trend looks like it will continue through Friday -- allowing us to make the transition to November enjoying warmer than normal conditions.  There is a weak system forecast for Saturday, but right now it looks like it may pass through virtually unnoticed.

MONDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear skies.  mild for this time of year.
low: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY:
mostly sunny.  unseasonably warm.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.  mild.
low: 14C (57F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunshine and a few mainly mountain clouds.  pleasant temps.
high: 20C (68F)

THURSDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  unseasonably warm.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds at times.  above normal temps continue.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

SATURDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  just a bit cooler.
morning low: 13C (56F)
daytime high: 19C (67F)

Sunday, October 28, 2012

slow warm-up... (pm.28.oct.12)>

Sunday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
Rainfall: none

Skies are mostly clear just after sunset this evening.  We had some patchy high clouds this morning, and then a few cumulus clouds over the mountains during the afternoon -- otherwise the sunshine definitely won the day.  Temperatures in the upper-levels of the atmosphere continue to warm up, but we're still not getting much of that effect down here at our elevation.  Still, today's high temp was the warmest I've recorded since Tuesday of last week.

There are no significant changes to the ongoing forecast to report.  We're in line for a general warming trend right through the coming week, which will allow us to end October and begin November a few degrees ABOVE normal.  A very wet weather system will be tracking across roughly the southern half of India during the next few days, but we'll remain very much high and dry here.  Occasional patches of high clouds, along with some PM cumulus clouds over the mountains will be the only competition for the autumn sunshine.

Our advertised warming trend has been a bit tepid thus far, but expect overnight lows and daytime highs to continue their steady moderation...

SUNDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 12C (54F)

MONDAY:
sun and just a few clouds at times.  a bit warmer.
high: 19C (66F)

MONDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.
low: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and unseasonably warm.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and some high clouds at times.  above normal temps for the end of october.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY:
sunshine and a few high clouds.  still warm-ish
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  unseasonably warm streak continues.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

Saturday, October 27, 2012

shifting pattern... (pm.27.oct.12)>

Saturday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 51.8F (11.0C)
Afternoon high temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

The development of some patchy high clouds this evening is indication of serious warming occurring in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  That warming aloft gave us stable conditions all day, which prevented more than a few cumulus clouds from developing over the mountain peaks during the afternoon.  We haven't experienced the warming here at the surface just yet, but that will be on the way.

Computer models show a widespread area of unusually strong high pressure for most of South Asia for the next several days.  This is going to lead to continued warming from the surface into the upper-levels, which should allow temperatures to rise several degrees above normal during at least the first part of the new week.

There is a chance of some patches of high clouds which could limit our sunshine potential, and in turn, prevent temperatures from warming as expected -- so we'll be watching that as the week progresses.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.  not as cool.
low: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY:
sunshine and a few patches of high clouds.  warmer.
high: 19C (66F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.  unseasonably mild.
low: 13C (56F)

MONDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  above normal temps.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sun and some high clouds.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  mild for end of october.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY:
a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds.  still warm-ish...
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

approaching ideal... (am.27.oct.12)>

We have full sunshine on this Saturday morning, with cool temps to start.  I've recorded an overnight low of 51.8F (11.0C), and there has been no rainfall in the past 24 hours.  I've measured just 0.58" (1.5cm) since my return on the 5th of October -- well below normal for the month.

It looks like smooth sailing and generally fantastic weather on the way through the weekend, into at least the first part of next week.  High pressure is in the process of building across Pakistan and much of India, allowing temperatures to warm up throughout all levels of the atmosphere.  This should be a very stable situation, which should prevent much potential for shower/thundershower development, even over the higher mountain peaks.  There may be an increase in high cloudiness during the coming several days, but all in all it looks like the sunshine will be in control.

We're now coming out of a string of 3-4 days of below normal temperatures -- following Tuesday night's storm.  Today and Sunday will be the transition period into a stretch of ABOVE normal temps which will likely continue for much of the coming week.

SATURDAY:
sunshine and a few afternoon clouds.  milder.
high: 18C (65F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
any evening clouds yielding to clear skies.  not as cool.
low: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY:
mostly sunny and a bit warmer.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY:
plenty of sun.  above normal temps.
morning low: 13C (56F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of sunshine and some high clouds at times.  remaining warm for late oct.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and mainly high clouds.  unseasonably warm.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

Friday, October 26, 2012

a quiet weekend... (pm.26.oct.12)>

Friday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

Pockets of very cold air remain in the upper-atmosphere across northern India this evening, and that has ignited a few thundershowers to our east... from Kinnaur into Uttarakhand.  Around here, all we managed was a healthy build-up of mountain clouds which are gradually dissipating at sunset.  Temperatures today have been very similar to yesterday's.

We're still anticipating a pattern shift over the weekend into at least the first half of next week.  High pressure will be forming aloft, which will be characterized by warmer temps throughout all layers of the atmosphere, along with generally stable conditions.  At this point, it looks like even the risk of isolated mountain showers will diminish for several days.

Temperatures have been pretty close to end-of-October norms since Wednesday, but we have a very good chance of closing out the month a few degrees above normal.  The month has also been MUCH drier than normal, and it should be hard to come up with anything to counter that trend...

FRIDAY NIGHT:
becoming mostly clear.
low: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY:
sunshine and a few mainly PM clouds.  a bit milder.
high: 18C (65F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.  not as cool.
low: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY:
mostly sunny and a bit warmer.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY:
plenty of sunshine... unseasonably warm temps.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY:
sunshine... some high clouds at times.  still warmer than normal.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and some high clouds.  unseasonably warm.
morning low: 15C (59F)
daytime high: 21C (69F)

Thursday, October 25, 2012

crystal clear... (pm.25.oct.12)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 52.9F (11.6C)
Afternoon high temp: 62.8F (17.1C)
Rainfall: none

A classic late October evening in progress, with a beautiful sunset casting pink and orange hues across the mountains.  Today has been very quiet, with lots of sunshine yielding to only a modest build-up of cumulus clouds over the Dhaualadars during the afternoon hours.  There are still some pockets of very cold air aloft, but the air is also cool enough here at the surface to prevent the instability necessary to trigger any thundershower activity.

The weather pattern between now and early next week will be shifting again.  A ridge of high pressure in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will begin to establish itself over Pakistan and the northwestern third of India, allowing temperatures to begin warming up a bit, while keeping us high and dry.  Other than the slight chance of a PM shower over the mountains, rain chances will be virtually nil.

Above normal temps between Sunday and Tuesday will occur in advance of the next weather system which could shake things up by the latter half of next week...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear skies... seasonably cool.
low: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY:
sunny in the morning.  a few mountain clouds in the PM
high: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
clear skies.
low: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY:
sunshine and just a few clouds.
high: 18C (65F)

SUNDAY:
mostly sunny and warming up a bit.
morning low: 13C (56F)
daytime high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY:
mostly sunny and unseasonably mild.
morning low: 14C (57F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY:
sunshine and some high clouds.  above normal temps.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 20C (68F)