Thursday, January 17, 2013

preliminary tastes... (pm.17.jan.13)>

-Most recent updates posted at the top of this page-

Update @ 9:23pm... Rain showers starting up again.  Current temp: 44.4F (6.9C), humidity 70%.

Update @ 7:43pm... There has been an explosive development of new cloudiness, rain and thundershowers just south of us over Punjab during the past hour or so.  Very strong mid- and upper-level winds are steering this activity directly toward us, from the vantage point of recent satellite photos.  The center of this storm system's counter-clockwise upper-level circulation is now along the Pakistan/Rajasthan border, just northwest of Jaisalmer, and will be lifting northeastward overnight.

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Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 41.0F (5.0C) -- 12:15pm
High temp: 50.0F (10.0C) -- 10:30am
Rainfall: 0.10" (3mm)

We've just had a rather bizarre sunset, as there is a sliver of clear sky on the far western horizon, allowing the setting sun to shine underneath the large area of cloudiness sprawled across the area.  Today has been a very turbulent day, as we await the full impact of the very strong storm system still gathering steam over southern Pakistan.  We've had everything from ice pellets/sleet to high winds to rain to clouds to even a period of sunshine during the mid-afternoon.

I'm on pins and needles waiting to see what is going to happen later tonight and Friday.  There's been a taste of stormy weather today, but the full effects of our long-awaited winter storm have yet to materialize.  All of the available data continues to point to the arrival of the 'main event', as the very intense circulation center in southern Pak lifts northeastward directly across Punjab and Himachal Pradesh during the coming 24 to 36 hours.  As I mentioned this morning, it is really an hour-by-hour assessment as we monitor satellite photos and incoming upper-air data to see how this is going to play out.  Unless all of this data is just totally out to lunch, we've still got a lot of rain and snow on the way.  The one reservation I have is that the bulk of moisture being pulled northward in advance of this system might be shunted off just to our east.  Otherwise, things appear to be on track.

Colder air during the next 12 to 24 hours is going to put us in a position to be flirting with the rain/snow changeover here in the immediate McLeod area.  The icy precipitation early this evening is evidence of sub-freezing air already only a couple of hundred meters above us.  Also continue to be aware of the possibility of thunder/lightning and periods of very strong winds before all is said and done.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy and colder.  more rain developing, possibly mixed with or changing to sleet and snow.  thunder and gusty winds possible as well.
low: 1C (34F)

FRIDAY:
periods of rain, sleet, and/or snow.  heavy amounts likely, with a possibility of thunder and gusty winds.
high: 6C (42F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
snow or rain mixed with snow/sleet likely.  very cold.
low: -1C (30F)

SATURDAY:
slight chance of an early morning snow shower... otherwise very cold, with both clouds and some sun.
high: 4C (40F)

SUNDAY:
partly cloudy and a bit milder.. but still unseasonably cold.
morning low: -1C (31F)
daytime high: 6C (43F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds.  milder.
morning low: 2C (36F)
daytime high: 8C (47F)

TUESDAY:
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.  near normal temps.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 9C (49F)