-Most recent updates are posted at the top of the page-
Update @ 3:18pm... The clouds are back, and at least at my location in the upper part of town, the wind is VERY strong and gusty. Our atmosphere is obviously in a major state of upheaval as intense dynamic energy continues to ease in from the west-southwest. Battle of the air masses taking place.
Update @ 2:14pm... We're in the midst of a break in the action, with even some sunshine showing up, temporarily. Our earlier batch of showers has lifted off to the northeast, so we'll await further development later this afternoon and into the evening. Current temp: 45.3F (7.4C), with 79% humidity.
Update @ 1:09pm... My rain gauge shows 0.09" (2mm) from the scattered showers we've had thus far today, and the temp has dipped as low as 41.7F (5.4C) during the past hour.
Update @ 12 noon... Steady light rain here in the upper part of town for the past 20 minutes or so, and intensity seems to be increasing. From what I can see, it is already snowing well below Triund... perhaps as low as 2400m/7900ft. Current temp at my location is 43.2F (6.2C) and falling. Humidity at 68% and rising as our air mass moves toward saturation.
Update @ 11:06am... The huge upper-level low pressure area now over eastern Afghanistan and nearly all of Pakistan continues to strengthen. The main circulation center has now dropped into the southern part of Pak, and will eject northeastward late tonight and Friday, bringing lots of moisture from the Arabian Sea along with it. I've just looked at a whole slew of new data, which shows everything evolving according to expectations thus far. Still looks like the very worst conditions will occur tonight and Friday... but we're now in hour-by-hour mode, so stay tuned for the latest.
Update @ 10:00am... I had a very light shower around 9:00am, and winds continue to gust very strongly at times. It looks like rain chances will be on the increase during the next couple of hours.
Update @ 8:26am... Clouds have thickened up rapidly during the past hour or so, with the latest satellite photos indicating the development of scattered showers and perhaps even some thundershowers across Pakistan, northern Rajasthan, Punjab, and even into southern parts of Himachal. It looks like things are coming together. Calculations from this morning's temperature/dewpoint profiles are showing that temperatures should drop to about 38-39F (3-4C) once precipitation really sets in. That pretty much assures us of rain, initially, which is what we would expect.
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We have mostly cloudy skies with occasionally gusty winds at sunrise this morning. The temperature has been fairly steady overnight, and currently stands at 45.5F (7.5C). Humidity is fluctuating in the 55-60% range.
Satellite and upper-air data indicate an increasingly well-defined circulation center over northeastern Afghanistan, pulling mid- and high-level moisture northward ahead of it. At this stage of the game, computer models are not much help, as we now just have to wait and see how the strong dynamics, moisture, and the arrival of colder air are all going to interact with our southwest-facing mountain ranges. A couple of new data sets this morning suggest slightly lower amounts of precipitation than previously -- on the order of 6-8cm (2-3.5"). That is still quite heavy, and will translate into some very heavy snowfall totals once the bulk of the colder air arrives tonight and Friday.
Continue to make preparations for worsening conditions, and check back here for updates as things develop...
Update @ 3:18pm... The clouds are back, and at least at my location in the upper part of town, the wind is VERY strong and gusty. Our atmosphere is obviously in a major state of upheaval as intense dynamic energy continues to ease in from the west-southwest. Battle of the air masses taking place.
Update @ 2:14pm... We're in the midst of a break in the action, with even some sunshine showing up, temporarily. Our earlier batch of showers has lifted off to the northeast, so we'll await further development later this afternoon and into the evening. Current temp: 45.3F (7.4C), with 79% humidity.
Update @ 1:09pm... My rain gauge shows 0.09" (2mm) from the scattered showers we've had thus far today, and the temp has dipped as low as 41.7F (5.4C) during the past hour.
Update @ 12 noon... Steady light rain here in the upper part of town for the past 20 minutes or so, and intensity seems to be increasing. From what I can see, it is already snowing well below Triund... perhaps as low as 2400m/7900ft. Current temp at my location is 43.2F (6.2C) and falling. Humidity at 68% and rising as our air mass moves toward saturation.
Update @ 11:06am... The huge upper-level low pressure area now over eastern Afghanistan and nearly all of Pakistan continues to strengthen. The main circulation center has now dropped into the southern part of Pak, and will eject northeastward late tonight and Friday, bringing lots of moisture from the Arabian Sea along with it. I've just looked at a whole slew of new data, which shows everything evolving according to expectations thus far. Still looks like the very worst conditions will occur tonight and Friday... but we're now in hour-by-hour mode, so stay tuned for the latest.
Update @ 10:00am... I had a very light shower around 9:00am, and winds continue to gust very strongly at times. It looks like rain chances will be on the increase during the next couple of hours.
Update @ 8:26am... Clouds have thickened up rapidly during the past hour or so, with the latest satellite photos indicating the development of scattered showers and perhaps even some thundershowers across Pakistan, northern Rajasthan, Punjab, and even into southern parts of Himachal. It looks like things are coming together. Calculations from this morning's temperature/dewpoint profiles are showing that temperatures should drop to about 38-39F (3-4C) once precipitation really sets in. That pretty much assures us of rain, initially, which is what we would expect.
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We have mostly cloudy skies with occasionally gusty winds at sunrise this morning. The temperature has been fairly steady overnight, and currently stands at 45.5F (7.5C). Humidity is fluctuating in the 55-60% range.
Satellite and upper-air data indicate an increasingly well-defined circulation center over northeastern Afghanistan, pulling mid- and high-level moisture northward ahead of it. At this stage of the game, computer models are not much help, as we now just have to wait and see how the strong dynamics, moisture, and the arrival of colder air are all going to interact with our southwest-facing mountain ranges. A couple of new data sets this morning suggest slightly lower amounts of precipitation than previously -- on the order of 6-8cm (2-3.5"). That is still quite heavy, and will translate into some very heavy snowfall totals once the bulk of the colder air arrives tonight and Friday.
Continue to make preparations for worsening conditions, and check back here for updates as things develop...
