Tuesday, April 9, 2013

a new high... (pm.09.apr.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
Afternoon high temp: 75.6F (24.2C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: none

We have patchy high clouds across the area this evening as sunset approaches, after a day of sunshine and occasional mainly high clouds.  Today was the fourth day in a row above 70F, and the second consecutive of 75F or more.  It seems we have finally moved beyond the lingering early-mid March chill that hung on bit longer than normal this year.

The strong ridge of high pressure that has been driving our weather pattern the last few days is going to be breaking down during the next 24-36 hours.  An upper-level storm system over Afghanistan will move into Pakistan overnight, and then be centered near Jammu by early Thursday morning.  This system is already in the process of falling apart, and will continue to weaken rapidly as it approaches.  Nevertheless, there will be enough instability developing to trigger some scattered shower and thundershower activity from later tonight through Wednesday, and perhaps into Thursday as well.  Computer models are offering divergent solutions -- most are calling for barely measurable rainfall, but one model shows the potential for 1-2cm (0.40-0.80") by early Thursday.  April thus far has been almost totally dry, so it wouldn't hurt to pick up some moisture if we can.

The latter part of the week will feature a weak upper-level flow across northern India, embedded with a couple of minor disturbances.  The air mass near the surface will remain seasonably warm, so with some pockets of colder air aloft, we may see some mountain thunder during the afternoon hours.  All of that is pretty much on course for the season...

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