Friday, May 10, 2013

turbulence ahead... (pm.10.may.13)>

*Update @ 9:52pm... Thunder south and southwest.  Current temp: 74F (23.3C).  Humidity slightly up.

*Update @ 7:42pm... A large area of thunderstorms has erupted from east-central Pakistan into southwestern Punjab this evening.  The upper-level flow will steer this stuff in our direction during the next several hours, but there's no certainty that it will hold together overnight.  It's still very dry here -- humidity just 29%.

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Friday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 67.5F (19.7C)
Afternoon high temp: 85.6F (29.8C) -- warmest of 2013!
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy and still quite warm this evening just before sunset, after yet another 'new warmest day of the year' -- which seems to have occurred almost everyday this week.  We've had a four-day run of above normal early May temperatures, with humidity barely deviating from the 25-35% range.  The sunshine has also been a very reliable companion since Tuesday.

Nevertheless, we are on the brink of a major shift in the overall weather pattern this weekend, which will likely bring some noticeable changes.  The high pressure ridge which has been anchored over northern India since Tuesday is already giving way to a fairly strong upper-level disturbance now centered over extreme western Pakistan.  This disturbance will move into Punjab tomorrow morning, and then stall out as its circulation gradually weakens over the weekend.  Moisture/humidity levels will increase and temperatures in the higher levels of the atmosphere will drop during over the course of the coming 36-48 hours, which should create a good amount of instability -- leading to an increasing chance of at least a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

The computer model data is looking more favorable for some significant rainfall in the time frame from tonight through Sunday evening -- perhaps between 0.5-1.0" (1-2.5cm)??  If that happens, it would be the most rain we've received since the 21st of April.

Temperatures will cool of considerably if that rain does indeed materialize -- but should bounce back quickly by early next week before the onslaught of IPL VIPs begin to arrive for our yearly May cricket ritual...

The CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab at the top of the page.