Sunday, May 12, 2013

wet and chilly... (am.12.may.13)>

*Update @ 2:30pm... Have just had a chance to check on satellite pics and the latest data -- none of which is encouraging at all.  We've had nearly continuous light rain all day, bringing my total rainfall to 2.04" (5.2cm) since the first showers late Friday night.  Temperatures have gone nowhere.  It's currently 53.8F (12.1C), which is unbelievably cold for this time of year. I'll be very surprised if there is much improvement before tonight.

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The wind has been howling early this morning, with cloudy skies, some light rain showers, and even a couple of rumbles of thunder in the past hour.  I've recorded another 0.40" (1.0cm) of rain overnight, bringing the total since late Friday night up to 1.72" (4.4cm) here at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center.  It's unseasonably chilly as well -- the low temp this morning has been 52.7F (11.5C), though it's currently almost 58F (14C).

The upper-level disturbance that began affecting northern India on Friday evening is obviously still very much with us.  This is a very dynamic system, with a large pool of unusually cold air aloft -- some of which is being delivered to the surface levels, thanks to very regular waves of showers and thundershowers.  The center of circulation has moved very little in the past 18 hours or so, and is still located between east-central Pakistan and western Himachal.  Although it is already showing signs of weakening significantly, the cold air aloft combined with moisture that has been pulled into the circulation is going to keep our atmosphere unstable today (Sun), providing us with yet more shower and thundershower action.  I'm hopeful that there will be at least a bit of sunshine before the end of the day, otherwise it's going to be difficult for us to warm up much.

Monday will be a day of transition -- from our cool and wet weekend into a drier and much warmer week ahead.  The upper-air pattern will be shifting drastically by Tuesday, with a much more stable west-northwest flow developing, and temperatures warming rapidly throughout all layers of the atmosphere.  I know it's hard to fathom based on what's going on outside right now, but we should see temperatures back above mid-May normals by the middle of the week!

The CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.