Saturday, September 14, 2013

cautious optimism... (am.14.sep.13)>

A gorgeous Saturday morning is dawning.  We have mostly clear skies, a mild temperature of 64F (17.8C), and humidity near 80% to start the day.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and only 0.02" (less than 1mm) during the past 24 hours.

I'm trying hard to throttle my enthusiasm about our unfolding weather scenario during the coming several days, because it is looking like dramatic changes are in the works.  Gradually drier air is already filtering its way into Himalayan north India from the west and northwest, with a much stronger push of drier and more stable air being advertised by computer models between Monday and Wednesday of next week.  The reason I'm trying to keep my enthusiasm under control is due to the fact that there are often lingering pockets of moisture which remain trapped along the front ranges of the mountains during the last week or ten days of monsoon season -- undetected by the computer models.  This can lead to some pretty intense downpours during the afternoon/evening hours, despite the major changes in the large-scale weather pattern.

Overall, we should see increasing amounts of sunshine and lower average daily humidity (down below 50% by next week) over the course of the next several days.  However, just keep in mind that an eruption of showers and thundershowers is at least a 50-50 bet, especially during the PM hours, and be prepared to deal with it if you're out and about.  Still -- it's nice to know we are now truly nearing the end.

Monsoon info and your CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on tabs above.