Tuesday, October 22, 2013

sun's challenge... (am.22.oct.13)>

For the ninth morning in a row, we're starting out with mostly clear skies at sunrise.  My temperature here in the upper part of town is 57.2F (14.0C), with a humidity reading of 55%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, none in the past 24 hours, and only 0.20" (5mm) in the past ten days at my location.

It continues to amaze -- how the mornings can be so beautiful and bright, and then the afternoons turn so grey and gloomy.  There have been a handful of decent afternoons in the past ten days or so, but more often than not, we've had to put up with significant cloud development in a narrow band right here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars for a few hours, putting a big damper on our autumn sunshine.  It seems that whatever the pattern in the mid- and upper-atmosphere, there remains enough moisture to get drawn upward and condensed into clouds along the mountains.

We're going to try again today.  The upper-level disturbance and pool of colder air aloft that has been in our neighborhood the last few days has finally moved out, and is being replaced by a brisk westerly flow, providing some warming up there.  This may be the subtle nuance we need to suppress the PM cloud development -- or maybe not.  We'll know by noon or 1pm as we keep an eye on what's happening uphill.  Although we can't rule out an isolated PM shower or two during the rest of the week, the chance of significant rainfall remains small across the vast majority of our area.

Looking further ahead... a stronger upper-level disturbance is showing up on the weather charts for the latter part of the weekend into early next week.  As it sweeps in from the northwest, it could bring us our first shot of significantly colder air this season.  Stay tuned!

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab above.