*Update @ 9:01pm... Very gusty winds have developed in the last half hour or so, and temperatures here at my location have been fluctuating wildly -- from 39.7F (4.3C) to 43.5F (6.4C) since about 7:30pm. Humidity is also very up and down -- between 38% and 57%. The atmosphere is obviously becoming more and more unsettled.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday's stats:
Low temp: 40.6F (4.8C)
High temp: 51.3F (10.7C)
Precipitation: none
The day is ending very much as it began, with clear skies. Sunshine was absolutely dominant all day long, giving us our mildest high temp of the past five days -- we can't really ask for nicer late December weather.
There certainly doesn't seem to be any hint of a storm system threatening, but we still have that strong upper-level circulation to our west -- now straddling the Afghanistan/northwest Pakistan border. Also, there has been rapid development of cloudiness well off to our south on the plains of north India this afternoon, as some deeper moisture begins to get pulled northward. The main features are still in play, but it's going to be a complex scenario coming together over Himalayan north India tonight into Tuesday.
Computer model projections are widely divergent this evening, both with regard to timing and rain/snow development and quantity. But the broad-stroke picture is that we need to be prepared for deteriorating conditions either very late tonight or during the day tomorrow, as clouds thicken up and rain showers materialize. Temperature and humidity profiles are favorable for sleet and snow to occur down to the 6000-8000ft (1800-2400m) range, so we'll be precariously close to that wet/white boundary if and when significant precipitation develops.
The upper-level circulation center itself is still not expected to ever make it this far, as it weakens rapidly and lifts north-northeast across extreme northern Kashmir by the first morning of the New Year (Wed). Right now I would expect some lingering rain and snow showers here along our mountain slopes as 2014 arrives -- with chances diminishing toward the latter part of the day. Then, some dramatic warming is in the cards for the end of the week.
Check the CURRENT FORECAST on the tab above for day-to-day details.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday's stats:
Low temp: 40.6F (4.8C)
High temp: 51.3F (10.7C)
Precipitation: none
The day is ending very much as it began, with clear skies. Sunshine was absolutely dominant all day long, giving us our mildest high temp of the past five days -- we can't really ask for nicer late December weather.
There certainly doesn't seem to be any hint of a storm system threatening, but we still have that strong upper-level circulation to our west -- now straddling the Afghanistan/northwest Pakistan border. Also, there has been rapid development of cloudiness well off to our south on the plains of north India this afternoon, as some deeper moisture begins to get pulled northward. The main features are still in play, but it's going to be a complex scenario coming together over Himalayan north India tonight into Tuesday.
Computer model projections are widely divergent this evening, both with regard to timing and rain/snow development and quantity. But the broad-stroke picture is that we need to be prepared for deteriorating conditions either very late tonight or during the day tomorrow, as clouds thicken up and rain showers materialize. Temperature and humidity profiles are favorable for sleet and snow to occur down to the 6000-8000ft (1800-2400m) range, so we'll be precariously close to that wet/white boundary if and when significant precipitation develops.
The upper-level circulation center itself is still not expected to ever make it this far, as it weakens rapidly and lifts north-northeast across extreme northern Kashmir by the first morning of the New Year (Wed). Right now I would expect some lingering rain and snow showers here along our mountain slopes as 2014 arrives -- with chances diminishing toward the latter part of the day. Then, some dramatic warming is in the cards for the end of the week.
Check the CURRENT FORECAST on the tab above for day-to-day details.
