the latest...

**Assuming there is no more rain before midnight, we'll finish the month of April with 4.49" (11.4cm) -- the normal amount is just 1.90" (4.8cm).

Thursday, January 31, 2013

a holding pattern... (pm.31.jan.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
Rainfall: none

Just a few hours left of January 2013, and we're ending the month on a very quiet note.  There are a few clouds around shortly past sunset this evening, after another day of alternating sun and high cloudiness.  Temperatures remain a couple of degrees above normal for this time of year.

It's hard to keep track of all the weak upper-level disturbances passing through northern India recently -- but they are all virtually identical in their inability to stir up any precipitation.  Our air mass remains too dry for the development of any rain and/or snow, despite the occasional high clouds.  The back-and-forth between clouds and sun will continue for another two or three days, along with an outside shot at a raindrop or two, while temperatures stay on the plus side of seasonal averages.

By late Sunday, we'll be starting to feel the effects of a storm system which is going to dramatically change our weather conditions all the way into the middle of next week.  Rain chances will be on the increase, with the various computer models pointing to Monday through mid-day Wednesday for our best chances of picking up some moderate to heavy amounts of rain.  It still appears that snowfall will be confined to the higher elevations (mainly above 2300m/7500ft), but I wouldn't rule out a period of snow/sleet here in Mcleod as the center of the upper-level circulation passes through on Wednesday.  At any rate, a few days of wet and colder weather look very likely during the first week of the new month...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
clear to partly cloudy.
low: 7C (45F)

FRIDAY:
sun, with increasing high clouds once again.  a mild start to february.
high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
periods of mainly high clouds.
low: 8C (46F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  slight chance of a sprinkle or two.
high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY:
partly cloudy.  chance of a couple of showers developing... especially by late PM.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy skies.  gusty winds at times, with a good chance of a few periods of rain.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy and cooler.  periods of rain and gusty winds likely.  some thunder also possible.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

slow changes... (pm.30.jan.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
Mid-day high temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
Rainfall: none

There are still a lot of high clouds across the area at sunset this evening, at the end of a day dominated by dim sunshine through a variable layer of mainly high cloudiness.  My pre-dawn low temp up at the top of town was the mildest I've recorded this entire month... but the high clouds kept us from capitalizing on that head-start, though today was still warmer than normal for this time of year.

The satellite view this evening shows a rather messy scenario from central Asia into the western Himalayas.  Although there is no significant storm system to be found, the atmosphere is in a very indecisive phase, with lots of weak disturbances flowing from west to east -- generating a considerable amount of cloudiness.  Moisture is very limited at this stage, however, so very little rain and snow is being produced by those clouds.  We may come up with some random raindrops between now and Sunday, but the the big drama will hold off for several more days.

That approaching drama will be due to a very strong late winter storm system which is expected to develop over Afghanistan and Pakistan by the very end of the weekend.  It is looking more and more likely that we'll be seeing some moderate to heavy precipitation early next week -- mainly from Monday into early Wednesday -- but from this vantage point, it appears that it will remain warm enough for a (mostly) rain event here in McLeod.  Lots and lots of time to monitor developments, so stay in touch...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy and mild.  slight chance of a few sprinkles.
low: 8C (46F)

THURSDAY:
both clouds and some sun at times.  one or two brief, light showers possible.
high: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy skies.
low: 7C (45F)

FRIDAY:
a mix of sun and mainly high clouds.  mild start to february.
high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY:
both clouds and sun.  slight chance of a light rain shower.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY:
partly cloudy and mild.  chance of rain showers increasing, especially later in the day.
morning low: 8C (47F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy and not so mild.  good chance of occasional rain and gusty winds.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

sun-clouds-sun... (pm.29.jan.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
Rainfall: none

There are more high clouds appearing on the western horizon at sunset this evening, otherwise skies are mostly clear at the moment.  We had a period of high overcast around mid-day, but there was enough sunshine both before and after to boost us up into the comfort zone for yet another day.  These temps remain well above normal for the end of January.

Weak ridges of high pressure continue to alternate with similarly weak troughs of low pressure on our west-to-east flow aloft, and that has kept us fluctuating between sun and high clouds since Sunday.  It looks like more mainly high cloudiness is on the way later tonight and Wednesday, in advance of our next upper-level disturbance which will move through on Thursday.  Rain chances will remain minimal, but there could be one or two fleeting sprinkles or light showers as this system moves through.

Finally, it appears we may be seeing confirmation of the development of a more substantial storm system by the latter part of the weekend.  Computer models are now showing a very broad, deep, and slow-moving area of low pressure over Afghanistan and Pakistan by Sunday, which looks like it will remain quite strong as it moves through northern India early next week.  There should be plenty of moisture available for this system to work with, but mild temperatures should keep precipitation in the form of rain, at least initially, in the immediate McLeod area.  Lots of time to watch how all of this evolves during the coming several days.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear early, with increasing clouds again late.  mild temps.
low: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY:
both sun and periods of mainly high clouds.  unseasonably mild.
high: 14C (57F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  one or two light rain showers?
low: 8C (46F)

THURSDAY:
risk of a few sprinkles or a light rain shower, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.
high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  mild start to february.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY:
partly cloudy.  chance of one or two light rain showers PM.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SUNDAY:
becoming mostly cloudy and turning cooler.  better chance of a few periods of rain.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 12C (53F)

Monday, January 28, 2013

winter's absence... (pm.28.jan.13)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 45.5F (7.5C)
Afternoon high temp: 56.5F (13.6C)
Rainfall: none

It is mostly clear just after sunset this evening, after the warmest day since the 13th of January.  In fact, this morning's low temp was the warmest I've recorded since the 27th of December, thanks to the thick cloudiness overnight which served as a blanket, keeping mild air near the surface from radiating out into space.  Those clouds began their exit by mid-morning, with sunshine taking control well before the noon hour.

We are certainly getting royally spoiled recently with some very tolerable mid-winter weather conditions.  Despite a rather disturbed flow in the upper-atmosphere, the prevailing airmass across the western and central Himalayan region is quite mild for this time of year, with no evidence of an intrusion of significantly colder air during the next several days.  Occasional disturbances will bring us some periods of mainly high cloudiness, but rain chances aren't going to be enough to get excited about.  Right now it looks like the best opportunities to pick up some light showers will be on Thursday and Saturday, but don't hold your breath.

Extended range computer models are in a state of flux with regard to the overall weather pattern as we get deeper into February.  There are hints that we may have a more stormy pattern evolving, but there are no definitive signs of a turn to a much-needed period of extended wet weather.  Stay tuned for the latest developments...

MONDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear early, with increasing high clouds late.  mild.
low: 7C (45F)

TUESDAY:
both sunshine and some high clouds.  temps warmer than normal for late january.
high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy skies.
low: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds.  unseasonably mild.
high: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY:
partly cloudy with a risk of a passing light rain shower.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds at times.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY:
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.  one or two light rain showers possible.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

Sunday, January 27, 2013

staying stormless... (pm.27.jan.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 43.0F (6.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 53.4F (11.9C)
Rainfall: none

It is mostly cloudy across the area this evening, thanks to an extensive area of mainly high cloudiness which has been gradually moving into the area throughout the day.  The sunshine was most plentiful during the morning, which allowed our high temp shortly past noon to reach its warmest in the past eleven days -- though it's still only a degree or so (C) above normal for the end of January.  The cricket commentators (and the England captain) today kept raving on and on about "the most beautiful cricket ground in the world"... but of course we already know that is true ;-)

We've only had two periods of interesting and active weather this winter -- one during the middle of December, and the other for a few days during the middle of January.  Otherwise, this 2012/2013 winter season has been fairly lackluster and uneventful.  Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your perspective, there is no strong evidence of a significant turn to more of a wet weather pattern in the coming week or so... at least.  There are a few weak upper-level disturbances in the pipeline (one of which is overhead right now), but authentic storm systems are lacking.

This current disturbance has stirred up clouds today, but there is only a slight chance of anything more than a few random sprinkles of rain as this system passes by tonight and early Monday.  Another weakening disturbance will bring us a rain shower threat on Thursday, with perhaps another shot at some precipitation by the latter half of next weekend.  Nothing very exciting on the horizon at the moment.

Temperatures will be trending slightly above normal for the Jan/Feb transition, with no evidence of truly winter-time cold in the forecast right now.

SUNDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  chance of some random sprinkles or a very light rain shower after midnight.
low: 7C (45F)

MONDAY:
a period of light rain showers possible, mainly in the morning.  otherwise a mix of clouds and sun.
high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy skies.
low: 7C (45F)

TUESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  quite mild.
high: 13C (56F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and occasional clouds.  temps above normal.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY:
both clouds and some sun.  risk of a rain shower or two.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY (1st of FEB):
partly cloudy and unseasonably mild.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

Saturday, January 26, 2013

an increase in clouds... (pm.26.jan.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 42.4F (5.8C)
Afternoon high temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
Rainfall: none

We have a 100% clear sky at sunset this evening.  Other than a bit of afternoon cloud development along the Dhauladhar peaks, it was a very sunny day -- again.  Though not by any means "warm", this India Republic Day high temp was the warmest I've recorded in the past 10 days, if only by a fraction of a degree.

There are still no alarming developments on the weather front over the course of the next several days, but it does look like we could see an increase in high cloudiness later tonight and Sunday, in advance of a weak upper-level disturbance.  Tens of millions of cricket fans will be scrutinizing the Dharamsala area via their TV screens all day tomorrow as they watch the India/England One Day International match starting at 9am -- but the sunshine may be more limited than in recent days.

There will be a slight chance of a random rain shower or two Sunday night into Monday as that weak disturbance moves through, but it looks like we'll have to wait until the latter part of the week for a better chance of some significant precipitation.  A shift toward a more active weather pattern may begin to affect us by Thursday, and continue into the first few days of February.  But, temperatures should remain in the pleasant range for mid-winter -- at least until the very end of the coming week.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
clear early, but becoming partly cloudy overnight.
low: 6C (43F)

SUNDAY:
both sun and high clouds.  quite mild for late january.
high: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  slight chance of a brief, light shower.
low: 8C (46F)

MONDAY:
both sun and occasional clouds.  a couple of light rain showers in the area?
high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy and mild.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

WEDNESDAY:
sun and a few clouds. warmest of the month?
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

THURSDAY:
increasing clouds.  a couple of light rain showers possible PM.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

Friday, January 25, 2013

a nice weekend... (pm.25.jan.13)>

Friday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 41.5F (5.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 52.7F (11.5C)
Rainfall: none

We have mostly clear skies just after sunset this evening, at the end of another fine late January day.  There was a little more cumulus cloud development over the mountains this afternoon, but the sunshine remained dominant anyway, with temperatures just slightly above normal for this time of year.

The uneventful weather pattern we've been experiencing for the past 5-6 days continues on... with a rather slow jet stream flow aloft, and only a few random, weak disturbances drifting eastward into northern India.  The next of those disturbances is scheduled from late Sunday through Monday, but should do no more than bring us an increase in mainly high cloudiness (by Sunday), and then just a slight chance of a light rain shower or two on Monday.  Things still look good for the India vs England cricket match starting at 9am on Sunday -- though some high cloudiness may restrict the sunshine from time to time.

Temperatures will moderate further over the course of the next 4-5 days, ending up a few degrees above normal as we close out the month.  Extended range computer model guidance is hinting at a storm system for the end of next week, but it doesn't look all that menacing at this point.  January 2013 is on course to finish nearly 2" (5cm) drier than average.

FRIDAY NIGHT:
clear and cool.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY:
mostly sunny.  slightly milder.
high: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:
fair to partly cloudy.
low: 6C (43F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of sun and occasional high clouds.  mild for january.
high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY:
one or two light showers in the area?  otherwise partly cloudy and mild.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and some high clouds.  mild.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

Thursday, January 24, 2013

easy to handle... (pm.24.jan.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 40.6F (4.8C)
Afternoon high temp: 53.1F (11.7C)
Rainfall: none

A gorgeous mid-winter sunset is in progress at the moment, after a gorgeous mid-winter sunny day.  The only clouds were just a few scraggly cumulus which tried very hard to develop over the Dhauladhars this afternoon, without much success.  Temperatures this afternoon ended up just a bit above normal for this time of the year.

This time last week we were starting to feel the effects of an intense storm system which eventually brought 2.1" (5.3cm) of total rain and melted snow, with 3-7" inches of snow in the immediate McLeod Ganj area.  But one week later, we are in the midst of a very quiet weather pattern, with little hope for any rain or snowfall.  The weak upper-level disturbance which passed through yesterday and last night failed to stir up any precipitation... and yet another weak disturbance expected on Monday will probably also be impotent.  Otherwise, the overall weather pattern favors a flat and uneventful west-to-east flow aloft, with nothing suggesting stormy weather until at least the latter part of next week.

As far as temperatures are concerned, we'll see our recent warm-up progress even further by Sunday and Monday, putting us soundly into the "pleasant" category for the waning days of January.  Things look good, weather wise, for the big India vs. England One Day International cricket match in Dharamsala which will last all day Sunday.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear skies.  seasonably cold.
low: 5C (41F)

FRIDAY:
sunshine and just a few clouds.
high: 12C (53F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly clear.
low: 6C (42F)

SATURDAY:
mostly sunny.  rather mild for late january.
high: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY:
sun... and perhaps some high clouds at times.  warming trend continues.
morning low: 6C (43F)
daytime high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY:
partly cloudy.  mild temps.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

TUESDAY:
sunshine and a few clouds.  still mild.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)