the latest...

**There have been a few very light rain showers in the area early this Thursday morning. Temperatures remain extremely mild -- near 62ºF/17ºC at sunrise...

Thursday, October 31, 2013

a bit turbulent... (pm.31.oct.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 49.6F (9.8C)
High temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (2mm)

Skies are partly cloudy just after sunset this evening -- as the coolest day of the season comes to a close.  We also had measurable rain for the first time in eleven days, thanks to the few periods of sprinkles and mainly light showers early this morning.  The day started off looking very dreary, but there was a good amount of sun by the latter half of the morning, which held on for much of the afternoon.  Our early morning gusty winds disappeared as well, leaving us with a fairly nice day, despite the cooler temperatures.

A rather complex series of upper-level disturbances is sprawled from northwest to southeast from central Asia into northern India right now.  This is providing some circulation in the mid- and upper-levels of atmosphere, as well as some pockets of instability and very cold air aloft.  This morning's period of turbulence and showers was the first phase, and it appears that we stand a chance of getting another round or two of gusty winds and scattered showers sometime before late tomorrow evening.  There will be another surge of cooler air as well... so it's going to be feeling a bit like late fall or even early winter as we move into the month of November.

New snow fell all along the Dhauladhars early this morning, and the higher passes across Himachal will remain susceptible to dangerous conditions (i.e. wind and snowfall) for the next 24 hours or so.

A period of sunny and dry weather with temporarily moderating temps is in the forecast for early next week... but yet another risk of some rain showers and tumbling temps is possible by late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Check the tabs above for the CURRENT FORECAST and other info.

disturbance arrives... (am.31.oct.13)>

*Update @ 8:40am... I have 0.09" (2mm) in the rain gauge since last report, but it seems to be brightening up a bit at the moment.  The temperature at my place dipped to 49.6F (9.8C) during the shower/gusty winds an hour ago.  That's a new low for the season!

*Update @ 7:21am... A heavier rain shower has developed overhead just now.  We'll keep an eye out to see if this might be the first sign of some more significant development here along the Dhauladhars this morning.  With much colder air aloft, I'm sure there will be a fresh coating of snow on the mountains before this system is finished with us.

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Conditions have changed rapidly overnight, as expected, thanks to the arrival of a broad upper-level disturbance.  It is cloudy and breezy just before sunrise, with a couple of sprinkles and very light rain showers around the area.  Although the ground is wet, my rain gauge is showing just a trace of precipitation during the early morning hours.  The humidity reading is currently 52%, with a temperature of 52.9F (11.6C).  The low temp, which occurred a couple of hours before dawn, was 50.5F (10.3C) -- and that's the coolest temperature I've recorded this season so far.

It's actually kind of nice to see a genuine autumn-like weather system make an appearance.  Jet stream winds are oriented from the northwest to the southeast across the western Himalayan region... carrying this upper-level disturbance/circulation into our neighborhood.  There's a good amount of dynamic energy associated with it, but very little moisture to work with.  We'll see if we can muster up a round or two of more significant shower or thundershower action today into Friday, but I think rainfall amounts will remain generally on the lighter side.  Already the winds have been gusty at times, and that could be the case off and on, until this system pulls out of here by Friday night or early Saturday.  We should still get some sun in the midst of these clouds, showers and wind... so don't expect it to be totally dark and gloomy for the next 48 hours straight.

Colder air will continue to filter in as we head into the weekend, but as always, the presence of sunshine takes the edge off cooler temps.  And by Saturday, things should be calming down once again for a few days...

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

temporarily gorgeous... (pm.30.oct.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 64.9F (18.3C)
Rainfall: none

It is a classically beautiful late October evening in McLeod Ganj... and it's hard to comprehend that we've had to wait so long this year to see more than a very few of these.  We had a few patches of high thin clouds today, and a minor build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon, otherwise the sun was firmly in control.  Humidity was where it should be this time of year -- averaging around 35-40% over the course of the day.

Our gorgeous weather today may end up being a bit deceptive, as an upper-level circulation drops in from the west-northwest during the coming 24-48 hours or so.  It remains to be seen how much impact this system will have on us, but our risk of a at least a couple of rounds of showers and thundershowers will be on the rise starting tonight... with that chance continuing through Friday.  It's going to take some pretty strong upper-level dynamics to make use of the limited moisture available right now, but stay tuned as we watch whether or not we might come up with some rainfall for the first time in almost 10 days.

The other issues to keep an eye on are a blast of cooler temperatures as the weekend arrives, and maybe some strong and gusty winds developing late Thursday or Friday.  We could have an interesting October/November transition period.

Check out the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

lowest humidity... (am.30.oct.13)>

It has been breezy before sunrise this morning, with clear skies, apart from a few patches of high clouds.  I'm recording a humidity reading of 30% this morning, which is the new low of the season.  The temp is not as cool as the last few mornings, at 56.5F (13.6C), but it almost feels cooler to me, due to the breeze.  There has been no rainfall overnight, none in the past 24 hours, and not a drop here at my location in the last eight days.

It was just this time yesterday morning that I was close to giving up on the idea of ever getting rid of the thick afternoon cloudiness that we've dealt with on the vast majority of days this month.  Then, yesterday turned out to be one of the nicer days of the post-monsoon season, and this morning's humidity is the lowest of the season as well.  The nuances of the atmosphere have been unusual this year, but it seems that things are indeed changing.

The fundamental weather feature right now is a very strong upper-level wind pattern which has set up across the western Himalayas and much of north India.  It seems that it has finally been able to mix up this air mass enough to allow drier air to filter in here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  Embedded in this strong upper flow are a couple of disturbances which will be affecting us between this evening and perhaps early Saturday.  Although moisture is quite limited, computer models are showing some fairly impressive dynamics which could lead to some shower or thundershower development -- mainly between tonight and Friday.  We may not see much rain at all out of this, but keep in mind the risk of a couple of rounds of showers/thunder, along with gusty winds by the time Friday comes to an end -- and stay tuned for updates.

Temperatures are holding near to slightly above average for the end of October, but may slip a couple of degrees below average just after the arrival of November in the wake of these disturbances.

The CURRENT FORECAST and other info can be found on tabs above.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

one of the nicer ones... (pm.29.oct.31)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

Sunshine today was definitely more plentiful than almost any day in months.  Cloud development over the mountains was rather feeble, though in combination with some high clouds drifting through, did add up to a rather short period of broken overcast during the mid-afternoon.  Humidity was in the 40-55% range all day, with temperatures pretty close to normal for the end of October.  It is now mostly clear just after sunset.

There are some things to watch on the weather horizon during the coming several days.  Strong jet stream winds are developing and strengthening across the western Himalayan region, and will be affecting the higher passes of Himachal as we head into the latter half of the week.  A couple of upper-level disturbances will be riding east-southeastward on the strong jet stream flow between late tomorrow (Wed) and early Saturday.  The overall moisture content of the air mass over north India is quite low, but the moisture that is available may be lifted and condensed into some scattered showers and possibly a random thundershower -- with chances best between Wednesday night and Friday.  Right now it certainly looks like any rainfall amounts will be on the light side -- probably less than a half inch (1cm or so) -- but keep in mind the potential nonetheless.

By Friday and Saturday the next surge of cooler air will arrive, giving us temperatures near or perhaps slightly below normal for the first few days of November.  Our winter season is getting closer and closer...

CURRENT FORECAST details for the next 5 days are available on the tab above.

bored rain gauge... (am.29.oct.13)>

*Update @ 9:16am... I'm trying to be hopeful that maybe we'll see less cloud development later today, as humidity is now dipping to 40%, and some warmer air is arriving in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  We'll find out soon enough.

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We have clear skies at sunrise once again this morning, which has been the norm recently.  My temp here in the upper part of town is just slightly below 54F (12C), and the humidity is lower than it has been at this time of the morning for a few days -- at 48%.  It has been totally rainless for eight days in a row now -- check out the OCTOBER 2013 RAINFALL tab above if you are interested in what has been happening in the rain gauge during this month so far.

Our mornings have been generally living up to expectations for at least a couple of weeks now... but the varying degrees of cloud build-up during the afternoons remains odd for this time of year.  It has still been pretty grey and gloomy for an hour or two during the mid- to late afternoons, with fairly rapid clearing around sunset.  I see no reason to expect that situation to change significantly until we get a strong blast of much cooler and drier air from the northwest, and/or a line of thunderstorms driving through here.

Cooler temperatures the last few days may give way to some slight warming during this mid-week period... ahead of a rather strong upper-level disturbance still scheduled to move through here between late Wednesday and Friday.  As that system moves in, we should see our risk of some scattered rain showers go up a bit.  Then, as it moves out, our temps will be dropping once again -- most likely to their coolest levels of the fall season over the weekend.

The CURRENT FORECAST can always be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Monday, October 28, 2013

pm cloud issues... (pm.28.oct.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 52.7F (11.5C) -- coolest temp of the season
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

We had abundant sunshine until about 11:30am, partly cloudy skies until 1:30-2:00pm, and then a very gloomy period of mostly cloudy skies during the mid- to late afternoon hours once again.  There was a clearing trend before sunset, but there are still a few clouds around just after 8:00pm as I type.  Temperatures today -- both high and low -- were the coolest of this autumn season.

There are only three days left in the month, which has turned out to be one of the cloudiest Octobers I can ever recall in the years I have been here.  The afternoon cloudiness which has been so persistent this month has been a big disappointment, and has consistently prevented us from enjoying the kind of sunny skies and very low humidity that is normally common this time of year.  Computer model projections of lower humidity have consistently failed to come true during the past couple weeks.  We're still averaging around 60% over the course of the day, which is just not low enough to prevent the mainly PM cloud development here along the mountains.

A new upper-level disturbance is scheduled for the latter part of the week, and it looks like our risk of some scattered light showers will be on the increase as well, between late Wednesday and Friday.  A fresh surge of cooler air will be following in its wake.

CURRENT FORECAST details are on the tab above.

coolest yet... (am.28.oct.13)>

It is the coolest morning of the season in McLeod Ganj.  I've recorded a low temp of 52.9F (11.6C), which occurred just in the last half hour or so.  We have clear skies at dawn, with a humidity reading of 53%.

As expected, temperatures have been on a downward trajectory recently.  Although our daytime temps have been fairly steady the last several days, overnight lows have been dropping incrementally over the course of the past few days, as a cooler air mass filters in from the northwest.  Our general flow looks like it is going to shift back to the west-southwest for a little while during the mid-week period, which could temporarily halt the cool-down -- but a rather vigorous upper-level disturbance will sweep through here at the end of the week, with even cooler air expected to follow in its wake.

Cloud development from the late morning through the afternoon hours continues to be the main wild card in our weather forecast.  Although this cooler and somewhat drier air is gradually squelching that development, we haven't been able to break through to totally sunny/blue skies this autumn season so far.  This time of year it is still pleasantly warm in the direct sun, but suddenly chilly when the clouds take over.

The upper-level disturbance I mentioned above will begin to affect us by late Wednesday, and will provide at least a slight to moderate chance of some scattered rain showers into Friday.  Right now rainfall amounts aren't looking like they will be very significant for us... but stay tuned this week for further updates.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

incremental changes... (pm.27.oct.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 54.5F (12.5C)  -- coolest of the season
High temp: 64.9F (18.3C)
Rainfall: none

It is hazy but mostly clear just after sunset this evening.  Today was a little different than the last several days, as afternoon cloudiness began dissipating quite early -- before 4pm -- leaving us with mostly clear skies as evening set in.  For one of the very few times this season, it seems that there was more sunshine than clouds today.  I did hear a couple of rumbles of thunder around 3:15-3:30pm up-mountain from us, but there was no rain in McLeod Ganj for the seventh day in a row.

An increasingly prevalent west-northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere is becoming established across the western Himalayan region, keeping us dry, as it ushers in progressively cooler air.  Lingering low-level moisture and some marginal instability is preventing us from enjoying totally blue skies, but we are certainly experiencing much better weather than we were just a couple of weeks ago.  Though rainfall was way above normal during the first 10-15 days of October, it has been very sparse in most areas since then.

Seasonally normal conditions are expected for much of the new week -- with sunshine continuing to alternate with occasional periods of cloudiness, and temps dipping another couple of degrees.  There's still a stronger upper-level disturbance on the way for late Wednesday through Thursday which could bring us a better chance of a few scattered rain showers to end the month.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other info can be found on the tabs above.

cooling trend... (am.27.oct.13)>

It is mostly clear but a bit hazy again at sunrise this morning.  The temperature here at my location has matched the coolest of the season -- at 55.0F (12.8C), while humidity stands at 59%.  There has been no precipitation overnight, and none in the past six days.

A rather active upper-air pattern continues to evolve across the western Himalayas as the jet stream gradually sinks further southward, allowing slightly cooler air to seep southward as well.  Although there has been enough lingering moisture in the air to fuel cloud development around here during the afternoons, that moisture is insufficient to produce anything more than some widely scattered sprinkles/light showers along the mountains slopes, it seems.  The subtle interplay between the temperature of air masses at different levels of the atmosphere is what provides the dynamic for cloud and potential shower development, so that will be the thing to watch during the coming several days with this changing upper-level pattern.

There appears to be little chance of a warm-up as we finish off the month of October.  The trend will be toward cooler temps, especially at night, over the coming days.  Depending on the amount of sunshine we can retain, it should stay seasonably pleasant during the daylight hours.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

variable skies... (pm.26.oct.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 56.3F (13.5C)
High temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's still hazy this evening, but the clouds rapidly dissipated as the sun was setting.  Today featured a lot of pleasant morning sunshine, with partly cloudy skies for most of the afternoon... but there was again a brief period of fairly thick clouds and light fog here in the immediate McLeod area during the late afternoon.  There could have been a shower or two somewhere along the mountain slopes this afternoon, but there was no rain again at my location -- for the sixth day in a row.

Well, we're getting into the final days of October, as the upper-level weather pattern continues to shift into full-blown autumn mode across the western Himalayas and most of the northwest half of India.  Cooler air aloft continues to sink southward, and the brisk west-northwesterly flow is embedded with weak disturbances which will be passing through as we make the transition into November.  I can honestly never remember a year when we've had lingering moisture and so much PM cloud development here along the Dhauladhars lasting so late in the season -- but rain showers have been very few and far between during the past 10-12 days or so.

I still see very little chance of getting any full days of sunshine during the coming week, as occasional mainly afternoon cloud development continues to plague us.  Any rain shower action should be isolated until Wednesday, when a stronger disturbance could bring us a better chance of some scattered showers/thundershowers as we close out the month.  Temperatures will be trending generally downward over the next several days.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

seasonably pleasant... (am.26.oct.13)>

It is calm and quiet and totally clear just before sunrise on this Saturday morning.  My temperature on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center is 57F (13.9C), and humidity is lower this morning -- at 52%.  It's been dry overnight, of course.

Much cooler air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere continues to sink southward from central Asia into the western Himalayas, as the jet stream dips further southward than it has this entire season so far.  The average moisture content of our air mass has been dropping steadily during the past 36-48 hours or so, despite the lingering traces of moisture that remain along the front slopes of the mountains, mainly in the 5000-12000ft elevation range.  That's the moisture that has been condensed out in the form of clouds to varying degrees each and every day by the mid-day hours.  Lower humidity readings this morning indicate that we may get away with a greater percentage of sunshine today though -- which would be good news.

Although it hasn't rained at all since Sunday afternoon, I have to keep mentioning the off-chance of an isolated shower or two somewhere along the mountains.  This colder air arriving in the upper-levels could generate some instability during the afternoons, so just be aware of that.

We may see our temps slide downward a bit during the coming several days -- especially at night -- though we probably won't be dropping much below the average range for the final days of October.

Updated CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Friday, October 25, 2013

more autumn-like... (pm.25.oct.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 56.1F (13.4C)
High temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Rainfall: none

Patchy evening cloudiness is dissipating rapidly after sunset, leaving us with mostly clear but rather hazy skies.  Today has turned out to be one of the better days of the month, actually, with full sunshine until late morning, and then partly cloudy conditions for the rest of the day, with only a brief spell of totally cloudy skies during the middle of the afternoon.  The humidity reading at my location in the upper part of town was between 55% and 70% for most of the day -- still on the high side for this time of year, but not high enough to support thicker/more persistent clouds.

We've now had five days in a row with not so much as a drop of rain... and that's the first time that has happened since way back in late May, believe it or not.  Rainfall potential isn't exactly zero during the next several days, but right now it appears that any showers should be very isolated and light, and clinging mainly to the higher elevations of the mountains during the PM hours.  There is an authentic autumn type of weather pattern finally setting up across the western Himalayan region, with strong and steady jet stream winds dipping southward, and some much cooler air appearing in the higher levels of the atmosphere as we move into early next week.

Despite lingering traces of moisture here along the mountains at our elevation, the average moisture content of the entire air mass is way too low to provide fuel for any heavier precipitation as instability increases during the coming days.  Stay tuned as we watch this shifting weather pattern this week -- which will likely drag our temperatures down a few degrees as well.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other weather info are available on tabs at the top of the page.

close to the norm... (am.25.oct.13)>

Our skies are 100% clear just before sunrise this morning, though there is a bit of light haze in the air.  The temperature here in the upper part of town is 56.4F (13.6C), with a humidity reading of 66%.  I was hoping/expecting humidity to be more like 55-60% this morning, but it's not the case.  There was no rainfall overnight, none during the past 24 hours, and none in the past four days.

We can expect bright sunshine again this morning, but with pretty much all of the same factors in play that we've been dealing with all week, it's likely that there will be some cloud development happening well before noon.  It does look like average humidity will be a bit lower today than yesterday, so I am hopeful for a greater proportion of sun to clouds.  Although our lower-level pattern remains rather stagnant, there is an increasingly brisk west-northwesterly flow developing aloft which should continue to incrementally chip away at the lingering moisture here at the surface over the course of the coming several days. 

There will be some significant cooling occurring in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere by Sunday, and although computer models aren't showing much precipitation development -- due to that marginal instability -- I wonder if we might see a couple of random (mainly light) showers along the Dhauladhars over the weekend.  Not a huge threat, but something to keep in mind.

Depending on the interplay between sun and clouds into early next week, the arrival of a cooler air mass could translate into temperatures dipping a few degrees.

Your CURRENT FORECAST for the coming 5 days can be found on the tab above.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

somewhat brighter... (pm.24.oct.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: none

It is partly to mostly cloudy just after sunset this evening.  There was more sunshine today than yesterday, but low clouds, haze and light fog still took up much of the afternoon hours, as the humidity hovered in the 75-80% range for most of the day.  On the positive side, there was no rain today, and I've recorded just 0.02" (less than 1mm) in the past week.

The upper-air pattern is gradually changing and morphing into more of a classic autumn situation across northern India and the rest of the western Himalayan region.  However, this slow transformation is still not translating into much of a change here at our elevation, in terms of the daily episodes of cloud development along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  Computer models are again showing a reduction in the average moisture content of the atmosphere starting tonight, and continuing into the weekend.  If there is any truth to those projections, there should be less extensive cloudiness around here tomorrow.

Our temperatures have cooled down a few degrees this week, but we are still averaging out near to slightly above normal for the latter part of October.  A push of cooler air is still in the forecast for the latter part of the weekend into early next week, which could bring us our lowest temps of the season by Monday and Tuesday.

Check out the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

sun/cloud combo again... (am.24.oct.13)>

Wednesday's high temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
This morning's low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
24 hour rainfall: none

There are no clouds visible from my vantage point just before sunrise this morning, but it is quite hazy.  The temp is close to 56F (13.3C), and humidity remains quite high -- at 76%.

I haven't personally seen a single rain drop since Sunday afternoon, although there could have been some random sprinkles or a light shower somewhere along the mountain slopes during the past couple of days.  But -- despite the scarcity of rain, there's still a heck of a lot of cloud development here on the front side of the Dhauladhars, mainly during the afternoon hours.  Yesterday was particularly gloomy, with some of the thickest cloudiness I've seen since the beginning of the month, and some haze and light fog as well.

Although there are some seasonal shifts occurring in the upper atmosphere which will allow gradually cooler and cooler air to seep southward across the mountains, I'm not sure what it's going to take to get rid of this lingering moisture responsible for our daily episodes of cloudiness.  Ironically, what we really need right now is a round of strong thunderstorms to flush out this moisture and transfer drier air down from the upper levels in its wake... but that doesn't look very likely.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

sun/haze/clouds... (am.23.oct.13)>

We have a hazy sky with just a few patches of clouds early this morning as the eastern sky slowly brightens.  My temperature in the upper part of town is 57F (13.9C), with a humidity reading of 75%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and none in the past 24 hours.

Humidity is on the high side this morning, so despite the hazy sun to start the day, scattered clouds are already threatening, and will likely thicken up well before noon.  There is also a mentionable risk of an isolated shower or two somewhere along the front slopes of the mountains during the afternoon hours, but most of us will probably not get wet.

There are still no really dramatic shifts in our overall weather scenario expected in the next few days, as a general westerly flow of air in the upper atmosphere races across northern India, with a stagnant pattern here in the lower levels.  We're not going to see full sunshine, but the clouds shouldn't completely take over either -- as we remain in this back-and-forth situation between mornings and afternoons.  The next weather change on the horizon is a rather strong upper-level disturbance forecast to slide in from the northwest by Sunday, into early next week.  RIght now it doesn't look like much of a rain-maker, but it could potentially usher in some significantly cooler air as we close out the month of October.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

no dramatic changes... (pm.22.oct.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 66.4F (19.1C)
Rainfall: none

It is quite hazy after sunset this evening, with some patches of clouds lingering around as well.  We still had significant cloud development across the area this afternoon, but it was generally less thick and grey and gloomy than on Sunday and Monday.  Sunshine was fully in control until around 1pm, and even then there were glimpses of sun in the midst of the clouds throughout most of the afternoon.  A definite improvement.  Humidity today held mainly in the 50-65% range.

With a few variations on the theme, our weather pattern has been fairly consistent during the past week to ten days or so -- morning sun yielding to some clouds by the afternoon, temperatures near or slightly above normal for this time of year, and moderate levels of humidity.  There have also been random periods of light showers close to the mountains during the odd afternoon here and there, but rainfall amounts have actually been pretty meager since about the 11th of the month.  We're having a difficult time getting the PM cloudiness to clear out, but we've not been adding much to our October rainfall totals recently.

I see no really dramatic changes in the coming days, despite some shifts in the upper-level pattern.  A brisk west-southwesterly flow is starting to develop in the mid- and higher levels of the atmosphere, which will continue until the weekend when that flow will shift more to the northwest.  Those upper-air shifts may not tangibly alter the weather here at our elevation, but we'll have to keep an eye on the ever-changing subtleties of the dance between sun and clouds.  Also, don't be surprised by a random period of sprinkles or a light shower at some point during the afternoon hours.

There are hints of some significantly cooler air dropping in from the northwest late in the weekend into early next week... but with November knocking on the door, that is to be expected.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above for details.

sun's challenge... (am.22.oct.13)>

For the ninth morning in a row, we're starting out with mostly clear skies at sunrise.  My temperature here in the upper part of town is 57.2F (14.0C), with a humidity reading of 55%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, none in the past 24 hours, and only 0.20" (5mm) in the past ten days at my location.

It continues to amaze -- how the mornings can be so beautiful and bright, and then the afternoons turn so grey and gloomy.  There have been a handful of decent afternoons in the past ten days or so, but more often than not, we've had to put up with significant cloud development in a narrow band right here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars for a few hours, putting a big damper on our autumn sunshine.  It seems that whatever the pattern in the mid- and upper-atmosphere, there remains enough moisture to get drawn upward and condensed into clouds along the mountains.

We're going to try again today.  The upper-level disturbance and pool of colder air aloft that has been in our neighborhood the last few days has finally moved out, and is being replaced by a brisk westerly flow, providing some warming up there.  This may be the subtle nuance we need to suppress the PM cloud development -- or maybe not.  We'll know by noon or 1pm as we keep an eye on what's happening uphill.  Although we can't rule out an isolated PM shower or two during the rest of the week, the chance of significant rainfall remains small across the vast majority of our area.

Looking further ahead... a stronger upper-level disturbance is showing up on the weather charts for the latter part of the weekend into early next week.  As it sweeps in from the northwest, it could bring us our first shot of significantly colder air this season.  Stay tuned!

The CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab above. 

Monday, October 21, 2013

the afternoon junk... (pm.21.oct.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
High temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
Rainfall: none

Patchy clouds and haze are gradually dissipating across the area just after sunset this evening, though a deep orange sun was visible as it slipped below the western horizon.  Sunshine this morning was again interrupted by cloud development before noon, which led to mostly cloudy skies and random peeks of sun for most of the afternoon.  There was no shower development today though, at least not here in the immediate McLeod area.  Both the high and low temperatures today were the coolest of the month, and of our autumn season.  Despite the recent drop in temps, we're still running very close to climatological averages for the latter third of October.

Satellite pics late this afternoon/evening tell the story.  Skies are clear across nearly all of northern India, with the only traces of clouds hanging onto the mountain peaks... and particularly here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars in Himachal Pradesh.  Right on top of us, of course.

Computer models are still showing no rainfall at all during the coming several days, but we'll still have to keep a bit of a 'heads-up' for random/isolated light showers which could pop up during the afternoon hours along the mountain slopes.  There is also a trend toward warmer temperatures throughout all layers of the atmosphere, and especially aloft, as the week progresses, as the mid- and upper-level flow shifts back to the west.  The average moisture content of this air mass is projected to drop further as well.  So -- let's see how all of these factors influence this junky PM cloudiness and haze between tomorrow and Friday.

Detailed October rainfall stats, along with your CURRENT FORECAST can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

a notch cooler... (am.21.oct.13)>

Crystal clear skies await the rising sun early on this Monday morning.  Here at my location, I am recording the coolest overnight low temp of the autumn season -- at 55.0F (12.8C).  Humidity is on the high side this morning at 68%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and 0.02" (less than 1mm) during the past 24 hours.

A weak upper-level low pressure area and associated pool of colder air aloft has been lingering just to our north and east the last couple of days.  Winds in the higher levels of the atmosphere are from the north, while we have a weak southeasterly flow which develops closer to the surface during the daylight hours.  This combination has kept some isolated shower/thunder development happening along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars during the afternoons -- despite all the computer model data painting a totally dry picture across northern India.  As we talk about all the time on this blog, our Dhauladhar thunder machine is moody and fickle, and has to be monitored on a daily basis to see what it might decide to do on a given day.

Sunshine was not as prevalent yesterday as it had been during most of last week -- but it looks like we'll be seeing greater amounts of sun and less cloud development as soon as this upper-level feature shifts off to the east during the next couple of days at most.  Temperatures, which have been above normal for most of October thus far, have fallen at least a little closer to where they should be for this time of year.  But still, it doesn't look like we'll drop below normal for the season as this week wears on.

CURRENT FORECAST details for the next five days can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

unwanted creativity... (pm.20.oct.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 64.6F (18.1C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

There are a lot of low clouds hanging around after sunset this evening, with the humidity up around 70%.  Our brilliant sunshine this morning began to give way to developing clouds over the mountains by 11:00am, which led to some isolated brief light sprinkles/showers and thunder during the early afternoon.  The sun tried to make a reappearance during the late afternoon, but then more clouds developed as the evening set in.  All in all, not the nicest day we've seen during the past week.

The subtleties of cloud/shower development along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars are maddening to keep up with, as all of the dynamics responsible are happening on a micro-scale, pretty much undetected by the resolution of the computer model data.  Rainfall amounts were insignificant today, as far as I am aware, but still, it's no fun to get a spoiler in the midst of a Sunday afternoon.

We've got a bit of a fidgety upper-level pattern going on across north India right now, as a pocket of colder air continues to slowly shift from Jammu & Kashmir into western Tibet.  As the upper-levels warm up again during the next couple of days, we will see more creative alternations between sun and clouds and isolated showers.  Temperatures today were a bit cooler, thanks to more cloudiness, but remain very close to normal for the latter third of October, actually.

CURRENT FORECAST details for the coming five days are available on the tab above.

brilliant... (am.20.oct.13)>

It's a sunny Sunday morning.  Just before sunrise, I recorded a low temp of 57.0F (13.9C) here in the upper part of town, which is the second coolest temperature of the season thus far.  Humidity is slightly higher this morning -- at 55%, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

Things are still looking rather uneventful over the course of the next several days, which is normal for late October, with no storm systems on the weather maps.  Of course we always have the Dhauladhar thunder machine to deal with -- so I can't confidently say that there won't be some shower/thunder development during the afternoon hours up there which could drift down into McLeod before sunset.  That's the only caveat to a forecast which should feature plenty of sunshine during the mornings, a build-up of afternoon clouds over the mountains, tolerable humidity levels, and temperatures remaining quite pleasant for the season.

According to long-term historical/climatological records, the 20th of October until about the 20th of December averages out to be the driest stretch of weather of the year in Dharamsala/McLeod Ganj.  Of course that doesn't mean there won't be occasional storm systems moving through, providing us with some periods of showers and even a thunderstorm or two during the next couple of months-- but on balance, it's the most serene time of year.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

as it should be... (pm.19.oct.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: none

The sky is mostly clear to the west this evening, which has allowed us another in a string of gorgeous sunsets -- but there are still some clouds and even a bit of patchy fog hanging along the hills to the north and east.  The proportion of sunshine today increased yet again, with the afternoon clouds remaining fairly close to the Dhauladhars and not really eclipsing the sun very much here in the immediate McLeod area.  I recorded a high temp of exactly 70F for the third day in a row -- which is kind of strange, but certainly not bad news at all.  There was no rain at all today (also for the third straight day), and the total for the entire past week is now only one-tenth of an inch (3mm).

Well I can't say that we've arrived at perfection, but we are certainly in the midst of very pleasant autumn weather conditions, and have obviously shaken off (finally) the stubborn moisture that was anchored over northern India for weeks longer than it should have been.  There's still kind of a pesky upper-level disturbance lingering over Jammu & Kashmir, that has been defying computer model projections that it was going to scoot off to the east very quickly.  It has kept some marginal instability in play over the mountains of north India, along with some isolated showers/thunder in the very high elevations.  All indications point to continued improvement to that situation as a more general ridge of high pressure aloft builds in during the next 48 hours or so.

There are still no major reversals showing up on the weather charts as we head toward the end of October.  So -- we should continue to enjoy plenty of sunshine, temps near to slightly above seasonal norms, and only a slight chance of some of that afternoon action over the mountain peaks drifting downhill.  All in all -- very close to how it should be this time of year.

Check the tabs at the top of the page for other weather info, along with the CURRENT FORECAST details.

a stunning start... (am.19.oct.13)>

It is 100% clear at sunrise... and it's looking like we'll be enjoying our sixth sunny morning in a row.  My temperature up here on Tushita Road just below the Mountaineering Center is 58.2F (14.6C), with a humidity reading of 43%.  There has been no rain overnight, none in the past 24 hours, and nothing measurable in my rain gauge since Tuesday afternoon.

Apart from potential afternoon thunder development over the Dhauladhars, things are very quiet and uneventful recently.  A stubborn weak disturbance in the upper-levels is lingering over central Jammu & Kashmir, otherwise a general west-northwest flow continues to usher in drier air from central Asia, allowing our daily average humidity to fall gradually, day by day.  Our morning hours have been full of sunshine the past several days, but clouds have continued to develop over the mountains during the afternoons, keeping us from reveling in completely worry-free weather.  Computer model data is totally devoid of precipitation development in our area, but just keep in mind that isolated shower or thundershower risk along the slopes of the Dhauladhars during the PM hours.

Although it's been a bit chillier at night, temperatures remain at least a couple of degrees above normal for the latter half of October.  There is no indication of a significant push of colder air into northern India any time soon, so this seasonably pleasant vibe should hang around as we head into the last week of the month.

The CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Friday, October 18, 2013

better and better... (pm.18.oct.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: none

A beautiful sunset is just wrapping up, with mostly clear skies across the area.  We started with lots of sunshine again today, with a build up of clouds over the mountains during the afternoon, which led to some rumbles of thunder and some isolated showers in the higher elevations between about 3:00 and 4:00pm.  The sunshine definitely held the majority today though -- allowing my high temp in the upper part of town to reach 70F for the second day in a row.

Even though the afternoon instability over the mountains hasn't been totally squashed, our overall weather scenario is an entirely different universe compared to what we were dealing with just a week ago.  Average daily humidity is now down to around 50% or so, and we're seeing the sun for at least several hours a day -- consistently and regularly.  A brisk westerly flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere is pretty well established across northern India, with drier air continuing to filter in at the mid- and lower-levels.  The weather charts are now looking pretty 'typically October', as a long-term autumn pattern finally settles in.

Having said that, I am still a bit on edge about the mountain instability factor during the afternoon hours.  Clouds and isolated showers/thunder are still being generated up there between about 2 and 5pm or so -- indicating that colder air aloft is interacting with a bit of lingering moisture and warmer air at the lower levels.  Computer models aren't picking up on this activity, so we'll just have to keep watch day by day until that dynamic is erased.  Temperatures should be cooling slightly more at night, but will remain pleasantly mild during the daytime, thanks to the greater proportion of sunshine.

Check all of the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

generally nice... (am.18.oct.13)>

There are some scattered mainly high clouds around the area early this morning, otherwise all is calm and quiet.  The temperature is near 59F (15C), with a humidity reading of 44%.  There was no rainfall overnight, none during the past 24 hours, and a total of 1.18" (3.0cm) in the past seven days.

An upper-level disturbance has been crossing Jammu & Kashmir during the past 24 hours, and will continue eastward today.  As it does, the flow of air in the middle and upper atmosphere will turn from the west-southwest to the northwest -- gradually ushering in the next phase of drier air for most of northwest India.  Even though the moisture content of our air mass continues to drop, keep in mind the risk of some afternoon instability which could be sufficient to bring about an increase in clouds, and perhaps an isolated/stray shower somewhere along the Dhauladhars.

Our temperatures remain a few degrees above normal for the middle of October, but there is evidence of a bit of cooling over the course of the coming several days.  Nothing dramatic, but maybe moving us a little more in the direction of 'normal'.  We're finally starting to taste the kind of weather that October in the Himalayas is famous for...

CURRENT FORECAST details and other weather info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

month's warmest... (pm.17.oct.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: none

It is mostly clear just after sunset this evening, and a bit hazy too.  There were some patchy clouds trying to develop this afternoon into the early evening hours, but they never really got going today... permitting us our sunniest day since one or two days way back in the middle of September.  My high temp of 70F (21C) was the warmest I've recorded since the 29th of last month and thus, the warmest of October.  All in all, it has been a really nice day for this time of year... or any time for that matter.

After a very long, long wait, the weather charts throughout all layers of the atmosphere are finally looking pretty close to the way they SHOULD look for the season.  Although there are still traces of moisture lingering along the front slopes of the mountains, the deeper tropical moisture has finally been definitively pushed very far away from us, with no sign at all that it will attempt any kind of resurgence.  At the same time, the flow in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is now briskly from the west-northwest, supplying us with drier and drier air from central Asia, which is slowly whittling away at our daily average humidity.  In fact, today's average was right around 50%, compared with 75-80% at this time last week.

Despite the major improvements during the past week, we've still had some isolated showers and brief thundershowers along the Dhauladhars as recently as yesterday, and with a couple of weak disturbances in the upper flow, I can't say that our rain chances are zero as we head toward the weekend.  Still, any potential showers should be relatively brief and light, with sunshine much more prevalent.  Temperatures, by the way, will continue to average on the plus side of normal for the latter half of October.

Check the tabs above for other info, along with CURRENT FORECAST details.

humidity drops further... (am.17.oct.13)>

It is absolutely clear again just before sunrise on this Thursday morning.  Humidity is down considerably from previous mornings -- currently just 42% -- and the temperature is 59.8F (15.4C).  There has been no rain overnight, and only a trace in the past 24 hours, due to a couple of random sprinkles yesterday during the mid-afternoon.

A large area of high pressure from the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere is strengthening over Rajasthan and Gujarat, providing dry and stable conditions across almost all of northwest into central India.  In the upper-levels, a brisk westerly flow is pretty well established, further preventing deep tropical moisture from creeping back northwestward.  On the negative side, we still have traces of lingering moisture here along the front slopes of the mountains -- and there are a couple of weak upper-level disturbances passing through the western Himalayan region.  This means we can't really count on a 100% sunny and dry forecast, in spite of the fact that overall conditions are consistently friendlier than they've been in a long time.

Sunshine should continue to dominate the morning hours, but I'm still a little nervous about what the afternoons will look like during the next few days.  The various computer models are projecting anything from zero rainfall up to perhaps 0.40" (1cm) of rain potential during isolated PM showers/thundershowers, even as the average moisture content of our air mass continues to decrease.   Enjoy the generally brighter and more pleasant weather scenario... just don't be too shocked if something pops up on top of us during the marginally sketchy PM hours.

CURRENT FORECAST details for the next five days can be found on the tab above.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

increasingly tolerable... (pm.16.oct.13)>

Wednesday's stats: 

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
Rainfall: trace

It's been a rather eerie evening -- with glimpses of the setting sun and the rising moon in the midst of some patches of fog which have developed here along the front slopes of the mountains.  We're wrapping up one of the nicest days we've had this month.  Clouds started developing an hour or two later than on recent days, allowing us to enjoy a lot of sunshine until noon, and then occasional peeks thereafter.  I did hear one brief rumble of thunder around 3:20pm, and there were just a few sprinkles in the upper part of town around 3:45pm -- but that was the extent of it.

A very stable and quiet weather pattern has taken hold across most of the northwest half of India, with a west-northwesterly flow continuing to become established.  The only fly in the ointment is the lingering moisture along the front slopes of the mountains which is being lifted and condensed into clouds and very isolated showers during the afternoon hours.  The atmospheric moisture profiles show an increasingly dry air mass across the western Himalayas, but we've obviously yet to erase the stubborn traces of moisture that remain here.

This year's transition from the wet days of the monsoon into the bone-dry days of autumn have been painfully slow -- but we are certainly in much better shape than we were in just a week to 10 days ago.  Even though October has been wetter than normal so far, the 3"-plus amount I've received at my location on Tushita Road is equivalent to only about 2-3 days of rain during the middle of the monsoon season.!

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

questionable afternoons... (am.16.oct.13)>

We have a crystal clear sky at sunrise this morning.  My temperature is 58.5F (14.7C) here in the upper part of town, and the humidity stands at 62%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, but I have recorded 0.10" (3mm) during the past 24 hours, thanks to a period of light thundershowers yesterday during the middle of the afternoon.

The weather pattern is finally, slowly, gradually falling into line with something more typical for the season.  It's been a step-by-step process which began late last week, as the total character of the atmosphere from the surface into the upper-levels continues to change.  The deep tropical moisture which was pushed out of our area during the middle of September, only to return less than one week later, has now been shoved far enough to the southeast that there is very little chance it will be able to sneak back this far northwestward.  In addition, the flow throughout most layers of the atmosphere has turned more westerly, and eventually northwesterly, which will assure the continued arrival of drier continental air from central Asia.

However, as we have seen the past two days, our afternoons remain full of surprises.  Despite the drier and more stable air filtering in, what little moisture remains has been stirred up by strong morning sunshine and condensed into clouds and even isolated thundershowers along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  We've had rapid clearing during the early evenings, but it's been a little touch-and-go for a few hours during the middle of the day.  I really think this drier air is going to keep claiming more and more time and territory as we head toward the end of the week -- just be aware of some moodiness during the afternoons.

The CURRENT FORECAST, the OCTOBER 2013 RAINFALL, and other wx info can be found on tabs above. 

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

still struggling... (pm.15.oct.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 67.6F (19.8C)
Rainfall: 0.10" (3mm)

There are a few clouds lingering to the east, otherwise it's mostly clear just after sunset this evening.  This morning's sun held on a little longer than yesterday -- but clouds began developing again by the late morning, leading to a sudden period of mainly light showers and thunder which occurred between about 2:15 and 4:00pm.  I had one-tenth of an inch of rain at my location in the upper part of town, but it seems that the rain was barely measurable further downhill, even in lower parts of McLeod proper.  Clearing was quite rapid by about 5:00pm, allowing us to salvage a beautiful evening.

Although our overall conditions are much improved compared to what we were experiencing this time last week, I am less than impressed with the realities of this clearing and drying trend.  There is still more cloud development than suggested by computer model moisture profiles, and this afternoon's showers were completely overlooked by the computer model data.  Of course all of this can be attributed to our mountain micro-climate factors which keep us on edge and second-guessing ourselves for much of the year... not only in the months before, during and after monsoon season.  It only takes a thin layer of lingering moisture in the low- to mid-levels of the atmosphere, some strong morning sunshine, and the smallest of disturbances aloft to trigger a bit of action here along the Dhauladhar slopes.

The humidity today averaged close to 70%, which is still quite a bit higher than model projections would indicate.  So -- despite the continuing consistent indicators of a drier and drier situation manifesting and taking hold around here, we're still having to scratch and claw our way to a stable and calm autumn scenario this year.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

sunshine tries again... (am.15.oct.13)>

*Update @ 2:35pm...  Well how lovely.  We are getting a little thundershower which has developed right along the front of the mountains during the past 15 minutes or so.  It should be relatively short-lived... but it's irritating nonetheless.

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The sky is absolutely clear at dawn, with a temp of 59.3F (15.2C), and a humidity reading of 75%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and none in the past 24 hours as well.  In fact, there has only been a trace of rain since Saturday morning.

It will be interesting again today to see what kind of cloud development occurs as the noon hour approaches.  Computer models remain consistent in lowering the moisture content of this air mass steadily, day by day, but it is always a mystery what will happen to any lingering pockets of moisture left here along the front slopes of the mountains, once the morning sunshine has a few hours to work on it.  Humidity has dropped briefly below 50% since Saturday, but has also been bouncing back up around 75-80% at times -- but we should see those numbers drop considerably as we move into the latter part of the week.

A very seasonable west-northwesterly flow continues to become aligned across the western Himalayan region, allowing progressively drier air to take root in our area.  Other than the potential for that mountain cloudiness from mid-day into the late afternoon hours, we should be seeing increasing amounts of sunshine, along with temperatures averaging near or just slightly above normal for this time of year.

The India Met Department is now talking about a major eastward shift of the monsoon withdrawal line in a couple of days -- after it has been stuck just barely to our east for nearly one month.  It looks like all of north and west India could be finally saying goodbye to what has been an incredibly lengthy and exhausting monsoon season.

The CURRENT FORECAST and other weather info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Monday, October 14, 2013

gradual improvements... (pm.14.oct.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
High temp: 66.2F (19.0C)
Rainfall: none

It is mostly clear just after sunset this evening, which was a very beautiful one, I might add.  We had full sunshine until about 10:30am, and clear skies this evening -- but in between, there was a lot of cloud development over the mountains which exploded during the late morning, and held on throughout most of the afternoon.  Even with all of that mid-day cloudiness, there was no shower development that I am aware of, so a totally dry day will be logged in the record books.

I have to say I was a bit surprised and disappointed with the degree of cloud development right along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars today.  This is one of those micro-climate features that is never picked up on by the computer models, and something that we can never really gauge until it starts happening.  If there is the slightest trace of moisture lingering here along the mountains, it tends to translate into mid-day or afternoon cloud development very easily -- even if it remains mostly sunny just downhill from us.

That's why we'll have to be a bit conservative and cautious as this progressively drier air arrives this week.  Despite the dry west-northwesterly flow that continues to develop, causing the moisture content of the air to drop even further, the mainly PM cloud development will remain a wild card that we'll have to monitor on a daily and almost hour-by-hour basis.  As far as temperatures are concerned... right now they are quite close to normal for the middle of October, with no dramatic shifts in either direction expected during the next several days at least.

Keep track of the CURRENT FORECAST on the tab at the top of the page.

monday morning sun... (am.14.oct.13)>

I see a couple of small patches of clouds hanging over the top of the mountains, otherwise we have a clear sky at sunrise on this Monday morning.  The temperature here in the upper part of town is 59.5F (15.3C), and humidity stands at 60%.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and just a trace during the past 24 hours.

I can hardly believe my eyes when I survey the weather charts this morning.  The last few months have been so dominated by low clouds, fog, high humidity and sudden heavy downpours of rain, that it's hard to imagine a scenario that would allow us to be free of all that.  But the trend that started showing up in the data around the middle of last week is so far turning out to be genuine.  The flow is still in the process of shifting more to the west-northwest throughout most layers of the atmosphere, with a large area of low-level high pressure forecast to develop over Rajasthan by the middle of the week.

Further reduction in the moisture content of our air mass is expected to occur today and Tuesday, setting the stage for much lower daily average humidity readings -- which could drop perhaps below 30% later in the week.  This means we'll most likely be enjoying much more sunshine than we've seen in a long time.  We're still going to have to be prepared for some cloud/fog development during the late afternoon and evening hours -- depending on whether or not there might be some lingering traces of moisture drifting up from the valley.  Things are definitely looking much brighter, but I'm still a little guarded until we can get through a couple of days without any surprises!

The CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab above.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

transition continues... (pm.13.oct.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 67.3F (19.6C)
Rainfall: trace

We've just had a beautiful sunset... for the second night in a row... but there are still some large patches of mid-level clouds around the area this evening.  Periods of sunshine did occur today, but the clouds were definitely more dominant.  The good news is that we've had another day with very little fog at all, as humidity averaged in the 50-60% range for the majority of the daylight hours.  I counted a handful of sprinkles around 1:00pm or so, but significant shower/thundershower action never got going here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.

The radical weather pattern transition which began on Friday is ongoing, and has another stage or two to go before it is complete.  Although the moisture content of this air mass has dropped a lot during the past 48 hours, it's not dry enough yet to totally preclude the development of some widely scattered showers or thundershowers during the next 12-24 hours or so.  We've had virtually no rain since Saturday morning, but don't be surprised if something pops up later tonight, or even on Monday, as the last vestiges of instability are erased.

All signs point toward a classically dry, quiet and pleasant October weather scenario as we progress through the new week.  The kind of west-northwesterly flow which is normal for this time of year will finally become established across the western Himalayan region, providing us with plenty of sunshine, humidity dropping into the 25-45% range, and very little chance of any significant rainfall.  Considering what a horrible post-monsoon period we've dealt with this year, we'll still have to brace ourselves for potential cloud/fog development during the late afternoon and evening hours.  From what I'm seeing now, that shouldn't be too much of an issue, but we'll have to take it day by day (as always).

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details along with other weather info on the tabs at the top of the page.

atmospheric overhaul... (am.13.oct.13)>

It is partly cloudy at sunrise, with a mild temperature of 62.5F (16.9C), and a humidity reading of 56%.  Last evening's very gusty winds and random sprinkles of rain came to an end before midnight, leaving things calm, quiet and dry overnight.

The evolution of our weather scenario the last few days has been very interesting to watch.  The entire nature and character of the atmosphere has been changing -- from the highest levels, all the way down to the surface.  This is what we've been waiting a very long time for, since things remained almost totally stagnant for weeks after our official monsoon withdrawal back around the 20th of September.  The lingering moist tropical murkiness has been swept out of here, for the most part, but we've only just begun to see the real 'drying out' of the atmosphere that is expected to occur as this week unfolds.

In the near term, there is an upper-level disturbance with an associated pool of cold air parked over northern India at the moment.  There may still be just enough moisture to provide fuel for some scattered shower or thundershower development today, but as that disturbance departs, and a more pervasive dry westerly flow establishes itself across the western Himalayas, the shower risk should continue to diminish.

Tropical Cyclone Phailin made landfall along the Odisha coast late last evening, and is weakening as it moves slowly toward the north-northwest.  All computer model guidance is keeping the leftover moisture from this system very far off to our southeast, as expected.

The five-day CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.