Wednesday, January 29, 2014

final days of jan... (pm.29.jan.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 47.3F (8.5C)
High temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
Precipitation: none

Other than some high clouds off to the southeast and a bit of haze in the air, it is mostly clear just past sunset this evening.  We started off the morning with very mild low temperatures for this time of year, but a fresh surge of slightly cooler air offset the sunshine to keep temps from rising all that much today.  Still -- it was milder than average for an end-of-January day, with a mix of sunshine and occasional high clouds.  Humidity was generally in the 35-50% range.

A couple of weak disturbances aloft have been hanging around northern India the last couple of days, but they are now scooting off to the east as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in for the next two days or so.  Disturbance or no disturbance -- it makes very little difference, because we have a very dry and stable air mass in place which has and will continue to prevent any precipitation from occurring across our area.  It's going to stay quiet and calm with sunshine and an occasional wave of clouds as we approach the weekend.  Temperatures will remain well above normal and very pleasant for the season.

Next on the agenda is a developing storm system which still looks on track for the first part of next week.  By Saturday there will be a strengthening upper-level disturbance/circulation over the Caspian Sea which will move eastward to northern Pakistan by Monday.  There is some very cold central Asian air which will be pulled into its core, as at least a modest amount of sub-tropical moisture gets drawn northward ahead of it.  The computer models are going crazy with some moderate to heavy precipitation developing over Himachal and adjoining parts of northern India by Sunday night -- continuing through most of Tuesday.

This system is still several days away, so we'll have to keep an eye on the developing upper-air pattern, the potential involvement of significant low-level moisture, and how the models interpret all this.  At this point, the best thing to do is monitor the latest developments -- especially if you have travel plans early next week.

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