Wednesday, January 29, 2014

the calm continues... (am.29.jan.14)>

Some patchy high clouds are lingering around the area just before sunrise this morning.  It's been a mild night -- I'm recording a low temp of 47.7F (8.7C), which is way above normal for this time of year and the mildest of this month in my record books.  Humidity is currently 37%, and there has been no precipitation overnight.

A couple of weak, disorganized upper-level circulations continue to wobble across northern India -- stirring up these patches of high cloudiness.  Some slightly cooler air is expected to filter into the area today, but not cool enough to actually bring our temperatures back down to where they should be at the end of January.  It will remain a few degrees above average every day right into the weekend, as we transition into February.  Otherwise we should remain in this vein of calm and quiet and basically uneventful weather until some dramatic changes begin to appear by Sunday.

Detailed computer model data for early next week has not yet settled on a very consistent solution on the specifics of a developing storm system which will bring those changes to northern India.  Very cold air is gathering in central Asia, as a strong upper-level circulation develops in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea by Saturday.  As those features converge on the western Himalayas, there is also expected to be some moisture drawn northward into the circulation.  We could start to see some shower development by late Sunday, with more significant rain/snow possible on Monday into Tuesday -- at least the way the data looks right now.  There will be all kinds of readjustments as those computer models continue to crunch the new data every 6 hours, so we still have lots of time to watch how it all comes together.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.