Tuesday, January 21, 2014

tracking the next one... (am.21.jan.14)>

Another mild early morning... I'm recording an overnight low of 45.1F (7.3C), and it's currently 47.5F (8.6C).  There's still a lot of high cloudiness around, but it's quite thin, which should allow at least a bit of sunshine through, here at the start of the day.  Humidity is 35%, and there has been no precipitation.

No two storm systems are exactly alike, and it looks like the one on the way during the middle of this week will have some different tricks up its sleeve.  The upper-level low pressure circulation itself has barely moved overnight -- and remains over southwestern Pakistan.  Due to its very slow movement, it has already begun to tap into some deep moisture over the Arabian Sea -- drawing it northward into Gujarat and Rajasthan.  All data this morning is showing that there will be plenty of moisture in place here along the front slopes of the north Indian Himalayas by the time the upper-level circulation begins to move in by early tomorrow (Wed) morning.  It is always anyone's guess as to what mountain micro-climate wild cards might be thrown into the mix, but it's looking better for us to pick up some significant rainfall on Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

One indicator of the projected freezing level if/when the atmosphere achieves full saturation even looks favorable for a period of snow very close to our elevation -- especially Wednesday night.  So -- here we go again with another chance to try get some appreciable rain and/or snow to add to our very paltry January precipitation totals thus far.

Of course the much milder temperatures we've enjoyed just recently will be replaced by more seasonably cold temps, especially if we actually come up with an extended period of rain/snow.  But it still looks like all of this will be over by late Thursday, with a return to milder weather by the start of the weekend.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.