Sunday, February 16, 2014

a freezing start... (am.16.feb.14)>

*Update @ 4:14pm... Instability created by our lingering weak circulation and extremely cold air aloft is certainly making its presence known late this afternoon.  A few showers of snow and ice pellets began just before 3:30pm, and there has even been some thunder in the last few minutes.  I'm getting a light accumulation of snow/ice up here at my house, and the temp has dipped to 36.4F (2.4C).  Satellite pics show this narrow line of snow showers all along the Dhauladhars... but as the daytime heating fades away, we should see all of this diminish rapidly by evening.

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It is clear and very cold at sunrise on this Sunday morning.  My low temp here in the upper part of town has been 32.5F (0.3C), occurring around 6:15am -- and that's the coldest temperature I've recorded this winter season.  It is likely a degree or two below freezing in some of the low spots around the area, since cold air sinks and pools near the surface at night.  There may even be some partially frozen water pipes to deal with this morning before the sun gets a chance to warm things up a bit.  I've recorded no additional precipitation overnight, leaving us with a grand total of 3.90" (9.9cm) of rain and melted snow from our biggest winter storm of this season.

Here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center, the total precipitation for the month of February has reached 7.23" (18.4cm), which is nearly double the 4" amount which is the climatological average for Feb.  There have only been three calendar days (midnight to midnight) totally devoid of precipitation this month, while temperatures have averaged out considerably below normal so far.  But we've now got a fantastic snow pack up on the mountains, thanks to the periods of very heavy snow during the past 10 days or so, erasing the worries and concerns about our future water supply, back in late January when it was so dry and mild.

On to the present scenario -- we still have an upper-level circulation center overhead, along with a pool of super cold air (around -25C) in the mid- and high atmosphere.  With sunshine heating up the surface this morning, there is a decent chance that we'll see cloud development, and even some isolated snow showers around the area this afternoon.  Any snow shower action should be relatively brief, but don't be surprised if something does pop up this afternoon.

A ridge of high pressure starting to build in late tonight will signal some stable and much milder weather starting on Monday.  Temperatures should warm up nicely by Tuesday, with little chance of any precipitation until perhaps late Wednesday.  The next phase of disturbed weather is in the forecast for the latter part of the week, but at this point it's not looking like a major storm system.

**Yesterday there were just over 1000 hits on the blog -- not only from India, but from all over the world -- which is a new one-day record for the most visits during the nearly four year history of the mcleodganj weathergeek.  I know a big portion of that huge number of hits came from some of you hardcore weathergeeks checking in multiple times :)) -- but thanks to everyone for visiting and following the action!

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