Thursday, February 6, 2014

rain gauge waiting... (pm.06.feb.14)>

*Update @ 9:37pm... Gusty winds, thunder and lightning, and some light to moderate rain in progress.  And now the power is gone...

*Update @ 9:11pm... At least here at my spot on Tushita Road in the very upper part of town, there have been some much more muscular showers (though still relatively brief) recently.  Satellite pics and upper-air data are showing the main dynamics of this system moving in during the next few hours.

*Update @ 8:34pm... The wind has kicked up, and there have been some brief showers trying to redevelop in the last half hour -- even a bit of hail.  Current temp: 47.3F (8.5C).

*Update @ 8:02pm... You may have noticed that it has warmed up dramatically during the past couple of hours.  In fact, I have a new high temp for the day (see below) which has occurred recently, after the low temp for the day just 3-4 hours ago.  An unstable atmosphere, to say the least.  There has also been no more rain since around 5:30pm.

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Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 39.7F (4.3C) -- at 4:10pm
High temp: 48.6F (9.2C) -- at 7:00pm
Rainfall: 0.13" (3mm) -- as of 9:30pm 

There have been some breaks in the clouds to the west at sunset this evening, otherwise there is a heavy overcast across most of the area.  Some sprinkles and very light rain showers first developed here in town shortly after 3pm, which was right on schedule -- but as of now, we've only had a couple of periods of more sustained light rain.  Today's high temp occurred during the late morning, then it turned several degrees colder during the afternoon as the light precipitation started to develop.  There were some light snow showers not far above McLeod during the late afternoon which almost looked like they were on their way down.

Things still look fairly promising for a good dose of wet weather during the coming 24 hours or so.  This latest upper-level disturbance is now centered over central Afghanistan, with the main energy expected to swing into northern India later tonight and Friday.  Although there hasn't been an overwhelming amount of moisture pulled into this system's circulation, it is more than we've have all week, and that may make the difference for us.  Still, it's going to be a nail-biting wait -- to see if we can really truly actually get something approaching a respectable rain and/or melted snow total in the gauge by the time Saturday rolls around.  Just FYI -- the latest computer model projections range from about 1.7cm (0.7") to nearly 5cm (2") in that time period.

Some seriously cold air for the latter part of the winter season is on its way as this system moves out this weekend.  There is still enough of a chance of rain mixing with or changing to snow in McLeod before all is said and done that we need to at least be aware of.  The best chance of that happening might be tomorrow night into Saturday.

Further on... get used to the unseasonably cold temps all the way into at least the middle of next week, and probably beyond.!

The CURRENT FORECAST details are on the tab above.