Thursday, February 20, 2014

upcoming rain potential... (pm.20.feb.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.2F (6.2C)
High temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
Precipitation: none

Our skies are partly cloudy just after sunset this evening, as they have been pretty much all day.  It has truly been a shared experience between sunshine and clouds today, with neither really gaining the upper hand for long.  Temperatures, though mild compared to what we've dealt with during the majority of this month, are still several degrees (F) below normal for this time of year.  Although the climatological average high temp is now close to 60F (15.6C), I haven't recorded that temp since the 3rd of December at my location in the upper part of town.

The general weather pattern has been in kind of a limbo state for the past couple of days, as a weak west-southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere continues to channel a few minor disturbances/circulations across northern India.  There hasn't been enough moisture available (nor much strong upward lift) to get anything more than a few isolated rain/snow showers going over the highest mountain peaks -- but it looks like there will be some changes as we head into the weekend.

A stronger upper-level system now over western Afghanistan is expected to move slowly eastward during the next 48 hours, arriving somewhere over the Pakistan/northwest India border by mid-day Saturday.  Although there is the typical inconsistency in the data at this point, we should see a moisture tap develop by tomorrow night, allowing some rather juicy tropical moisture to flow northward into the western Himalayas as the upper-level system approaches.  All but one of the computer models this evening is less robust with rainfall amounts, but it still looks like there could be something between 1.5cm (0.60") and 5.0cm (2.0") of rain/melted snow in our general vicinity between Friday night and Sunday morning.

More up-mountain locations could see some significant snowfall, but at least right now, it appears that the freezing level should keep snow above McLeod this time.  But of course that's rarely a sure thing... so stay tuned for new outlooks/info.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.