*Update @ 3:04pm... My rain gauge is now showing 1.72" (4.4cm) for the total since late last night. Current temp: 39.6F (4.2C). We've had fairly persistent light to moderate rain since the previous update, but still no immediate sign that temps are going to drop enough to bring the snow line further downhill. We'll have to watch what happens as evening sets in.
*Update @ 11:48am... Occasional light to moderate rain has been falling all morning, with no further downhill advance of the snow line at this point. Have received some snowfall reports -- Naddi: 10cm (4"), and Upper Dharamkot: 15cm (6"). Will update temps and the rainfall total later.
*Update @ 8:40am... Light to moderate rain falling here, and I've seen no more snowflakes mixed in recently. The temp is now 39.0F (3.9C). I won't be able to get online for a few hours, but will update later today when I get a chance...
-----------------------------------------------------
**Just as I'm about to post this, there is snow mixing with the rain at my house on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center, and snow is collecting on the trees just barely uphill from me.
Waking up to lots of excitement this morning -- though 'waking up' doesn't exactly describe it, since I feel like I've been awake off and on all night. It is cloudy, breezy and rainy before sunrise on this Valentine's Day morning, and from my glimpse of the mountain slopes to my east, it appears that the snow line is just barely above my location here in the upper part of town. I've had a low temp of 36.0F (2.2C) which occurred shortly after 6am -- and it is 38.1F (3.3C) now as I write. I was flabbergasted to see 1.20" (3.0cm) in the rain gauge as of 7am!
It is rare to see the kind of overhaul of the atmosphere that happened so rapidly last night -- from mostly clear skies to thick clouds and rain showers in a matter of just a couple of hours. The precipitation development here along the mountains occurred about 6 to 8 hours ahead of computer model projections, as that strong moisture stream flowing northward ran up against the mountains and was quickly lifted into the much colder air aloft. Thus far, this storm system is falling into the overachiever category.
We've still got a broad upper-level low pressure area and circulation lingering to our west across Pakistan, which will be moving ever-so-slowly eastward and even strengthening somewhat over the course of the next 36 hours or so. The moisture supply has obviously already shown up, earlier than expected. And now we have to watch carefully what a very cold air mass still hovering to our north and northwest is going to do, and how it will influence temperatures and obviously the freezing level and rain/snow line during the coming hours. Remember that the basic rule of thumb for rain:snow ratio is 1:10... meaning one inch of rain/melted precip = 10 inches of snow.
There is still one computer model that seems to be out to lunch -- missing everything that has been occurring since last evening. The other models seem to be in basic agreement that we're pretty much in the target zone for more periods of moderate to heavy precipitation -- 3-4cm (1.5") in addition to what we've already received -- by Saturday afternoon. There will likely be some breaks in the action which could last several hours at some point, but stay prepared nonetheless.
CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.
*Update @ 11:48am... Occasional light to moderate rain has been falling all morning, with no further downhill advance of the snow line at this point. Have received some snowfall reports -- Naddi: 10cm (4"), and Upper Dharamkot: 15cm (6"). Will update temps and the rainfall total later.
*Update @ 8:40am... Light to moderate rain falling here, and I've seen no more snowflakes mixed in recently. The temp is now 39.0F (3.9C). I won't be able to get online for a few hours, but will update later today when I get a chance...
-----------------------------------------------------
**Just as I'm about to post this, there is snow mixing with the rain at my house on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center, and snow is collecting on the trees just barely uphill from me.
Waking up to lots of excitement this morning -- though 'waking up' doesn't exactly describe it, since I feel like I've been awake off and on all night. It is cloudy, breezy and rainy before sunrise on this Valentine's Day morning, and from my glimpse of the mountain slopes to my east, it appears that the snow line is just barely above my location here in the upper part of town. I've had a low temp of 36.0F (2.2C) which occurred shortly after 6am -- and it is 38.1F (3.3C) now as I write. I was flabbergasted to see 1.20" (3.0cm) in the rain gauge as of 7am!
It is rare to see the kind of overhaul of the atmosphere that happened so rapidly last night -- from mostly clear skies to thick clouds and rain showers in a matter of just a couple of hours. The precipitation development here along the mountains occurred about 6 to 8 hours ahead of computer model projections, as that strong moisture stream flowing northward ran up against the mountains and was quickly lifted into the much colder air aloft. Thus far, this storm system is falling into the overachiever category.
We've still got a broad upper-level low pressure area and circulation lingering to our west across Pakistan, which will be moving ever-so-slowly eastward and even strengthening somewhat over the course of the next 36 hours or so. The moisture supply has obviously already shown up, earlier than expected. And now we have to watch carefully what a very cold air mass still hovering to our north and northwest is going to do, and how it will influence temperatures and obviously the freezing level and rain/snow line during the coming hours. Remember that the basic rule of thumb for rain:snow ratio is 1:10... meaning one inch of rain/melted precip = 10 inches of snow.
There is still one computer model that seems to be out to lunch -- missing everything that has been occurring since last evening. The other models seem to be in basic agreement that we're pretty much in the target zone for more periods of moderate to heavy precipitation -- 3-4cm (1.5") in addition to what we've already received -- by Saturday afternoon. There will likely be some breaks in the action which could last several hours at some point, but stay prepared nonetheless.
CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.
