Wednesday, February 19, 2014

wiggles and ripples... (pm.19.feb.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2F (6.8C)
High temp: 51.3F (10.7C)
Precipitation: none

There are patches of mainly mid- and high clouds around the area just after sunset this evening.  Our sunshine this morning was relatively short-lived... replaced by rapidly increasing high clouds again well before noon.  Temperatures peaked during the late morning, then dipped again with the loss of good sunshine by mid-day and throughout the afternoon.  There may have been a few sprinkles of rain somewhere around the area, but I never personally saw even a single drop.  Humidity hovered in the range of 45-60%.

It looks like this marginally disturbed pattern is going to be the rule for the next couple of days, as a few weak upper-level circulations ripple and wiggle and wobble their way across northern India from the west-southwest.  We'll have to deal with these extensive periods of cloudiness from time to time, but there will also probably be some peeks of sunshine as well.  Rainfall is unlikely, but we can't totally rule out a slight chance of a random light rain shower or two sometime between late tonight and Friday.

There is basic consistency in the computer model projections of a stronger system developing in our area on Friday night, providing us with a much better chance of significant rainfall through Saturday into at least Sunday morning.  A conservative estimate right now would be about 2cm (0.80") of rain/melted snow here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars between very late Friday night and sunrise on Sunday, but of course we'll have to keep a close eye on things as new data comes out.  I still feel confident that we will remain on the liquid side of the rain/snow line this time, at least here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area.

Check all the details on the CURRENT FORECAST tab at the top of the page.