Friday, March 7, 2014

nice for now... (am.07.mar.14)>

A beautiful sunny morning is in progress, with not one single cloud to be seen anywhere at the moment.  It has been clear overnight, with no precipitation since last report, and  my low temp here in the upper part of town was 44.6F (7.0C).  Humidity is 35%.

It is certainly looking great here at the start of the day, as a weak west-northwesterly flow aloft continues to dominate the weather pattern across northern India.  Temperatures are on the rise -- not only at the surface but in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere as well.  Computer models are showing some very modest instability developing this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon, thanks to enough proportionately colder air remaining up above 15,000-20,000 feet or so.  That may be all it takes to get the clouds percolating over the mountains again by mid-afternoon, leading to the risk of some isolated thundershower development.  Enjoy the sun and milder temps both today and tomorrow, but also be aware of the potential for a sudden downturn for a while during the mid- to late afternoon hours.

We could be seeing the warmest temps since December by tomorrow, as we push into the upper-50s(F)/near 15C -- but this is of course still cooler than average for early March.

Data this morning is looking even more ominous and threatening for early next week, I hate to say.  A dynamic upper-level circulation is going to be developing just east of the Caspian Sea during the next 36 hours or so, and will drop east-southeastward into extreme northern Afghanistan by late Sunday.  Warmer and moisture-rich air will be drawn northward in advance of this developing system, so as it tracks its way across northern Pakistan and northern India on Monday into early Wednesday, we could get an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall -- along with some thunderstorm action.  The good news is that it shouldn't be nearly as cold this time around, as more of a springtime air mass gets into the mix.  Stay tuned.

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