Wednesday, March 19, 2014

pm uncertainties... (am.19.mar.14)>

The sky is absolutely clear this morning as the sun gets ready to peek above the mountains.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 48.6F (9.2C), with just a trace of rainfall from some brief light showers right around 9:00pm.  Humidity is currently 44%.

It's looking very nice here at the start of the day, but there are some question marks and uncertainties about what might be happening by later in the afternoon.  Mountain micro-climate factors could be in play, thanks to some nice warming at the surface combined with lingering pools of much colder air in the upper atmosphere.  Wind profiles suggest that if any shower/thundershower development occurs along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, it could drift in our direction before dissipating in the evening.  On the other hand, the instability issues could balance out, and we could be left with a nice day.  I guess we can enjoy the sunshine while it lasts, and just be prepared for that mountain thunder potential during the PM, if it starts to bubble up.

The above scenario could repeat itself each day for the remainder of the week, since we lack a genuinely stable air mass to totally squash any afternoon cloud/thunder development.  Still... it's looking pretty good all the way into Saturday, with a decent amount of sunshine and relatively pleasant temperatures.  The next significant storm system may begin to affect us on Sunday, with an increasing chance of more widespread rain and thunderstorms in the area early next week.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.