Tuesday, March 18, 2014

system overhead... (am.18.mar.14)>

*Update @ 2:03pm... The variability of conditions today so far has been dizzying.  Our upper-level circulation is centered right over Himachal early this afternoon, and with some good sunshine warming up the surface, we could be in for another round of showers/thunderstorms developing before evening.  The current temp is 57.5F (14.3C) -- much improved from the very chilly early morning temps.  Total rainfall here at my location has been 1.01" (2.6cm) in the past 24 hours.

*Update @ 8:13am... Looking a little brighter at the moment, after a very heavy thunderstorm during the past 45-50mins or so that brought a bit of hail and lots of lightning.  I had another 0.38" (1cm) of rain during that episode, and the temp dipped to a very chilly 42.4F (5.8C).  It's back to 45F (7.2C) now.

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It is cloudy and foggy at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center just before sunrise this morning.  I just heard a rumble of thunder, and there are some showers lurking about.  The night has been an active one -- with occasional showers, thunder, and periods of very high winds.  In my rain gauge there is a total of 0.60" (1.5cm) since the first light rain drops appeared late yesterday afternoon.  Temperatures have been on a roller-coaster ride -- ranging from a recent low of 45.5F (7.5C), up to 61F (16C) around midnight.  Humidity has also been fluctuating wildly, but is currently 82%.

This morning our latest upper-level disturbance and circulation is centered in east-central Pakistan -- southwest of Jammu and west of Amritsar.  We've been in a prime position overnight and early this morning to be the beneficiaries of a combination of upper-level dynamic energy, a pool of much colder air aloft, and plenty of mild, most air lying in wait in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The center of this system will make its way into north India this morning, pass virtually right over the top of us by mid-day, then move off to our east by this evening.  This track will keep us in a favorable area to receive a few more periods of showers and thunderstorms -- not continuously, but off and on throughout much of the day.  Even if skies clear out at some point, be aware of potential redevelopment into the evening hours.

Rain chances should rapidly diminish tonight, with a stretch of quieter weather expected between Wednesday and Friday.  The pattern doesn't look totally stable, however, so we're going to have to keep an eye on the risk of some afternoon thundershower development over the mountains almost each day.  Temperatures should be relatively pleasant, but probably at least a couple of degrees below the norm for the latter half of March.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.