Monday, May 12, 2014

less than wonderful... (am.12.may.14)>

It's not the greatest Monday morning to wake up to -- with cloudy skies and thundershowers occurring at sunrise.  My rain gauge shows 0.41" (1.0cm) since last report, and most of that has occurred in the past couple of hours.  That brings total rainfall up to 0.76" (1.9cm) since Saturday night.  Temperatures are very chilly for the middle of May -- the overnight low at my location has been 52.3F (11.3C).  Humidity is currently 72%.

A complex cluster of upper-level disturbances and circulations is swirling around just to our northwest over northeastern Afghanistan into northern Pakistan.  There are also new waves of upper-level energy expected to pivot southeastward during the next 24-36 hours, as a large batch of moisture continues to ooze in from the south-southwest.  This convergence of features will keep occasional shower and thunderstorm activity in the forecast for us all the way through tomorrow (Tues), with some lingering thundershowers possible into Wednesday as well.  It still appears that the most significant rainfall amounts are yet to come, with some computer models showing around 1.5" (4cm) of rain in addition to what we've already received.  From what I'm seeing this morning, that doesn't seem to be unreasonable at all.  We could come up with a bit of sun in the midst of all this, but if it does appear, I don't think it will hang around for very long.  All of this will keep our temperatures very cool for the season.

Some stabilization is expected by Thursday, but it may not last for more than a day or two.  At any rate, a period of drier weather looks to be a good bet for the latter part of the week, along with temperatures that will struggle back to something a bit more tolerable for this time of year...

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.