Wednesday, September 3, 2014

action-oriented... (pm.03.sep.14)>

*Update @ 9:20pm... More mainly light rain showers this evening have boosted our rainfall total for the day just a bit -- now 0.23" (6mm) since midnight.

Thanks to some heavier rainfall late last evening, we ended up with 1.15" (2.9cm) for a Tuesday total.  Today's rain has been a bit sparse so far, with showers limited to the very early morning hours, the mid-day, and then a recent increase in light rain since about 5:45pm.  The amount received since midnight has been just 0.11" (3mm), but I have a feeling that's going to change before midnight rolls around again.  Here at sunset, we have cloudy skies with light rain and drizzle in progress.

If the computer model data I'm seeing is correct, we're in line for some very significant rainfall during the coming 48 to 72 hours.  The atmospheric flow throughout all layers of the atmosphere has been serving to channel a large amount of tropical moisture northward and upward against the front ranges of the north Indian Himalayas.  Already this evening, satellite pics are showing impressive development of widespread rain shower activity (and some thundershowers as well) extending all the way from western Rajasthan and western Punjab into western HImachal and parts of Jammu & Kashmir.  Increasing amounts of moisture will flow northward against the mountains tonight, tomorrow (Thu) and Friday, with the risk of very heavy rainfall totals somewhere in our general vicinity.

Of course we often get misled by computer models, but this situation bears watching -- at least between tonight and Friday night.  There are hints of some kind of a drying trend beginning over the weekend, but honestly, tonight's data looks less promising than the info/data that was coming out earlier in the week.  Still, we can perhaps look forward to some kind of improvement by the early part of next week.