Tuesday, September 2, 2014

clouds and showers... (pm.02.sep.14)>

*Update @ 8:49pm... It has come slowly, but rather steadily today.  The total rainfall as of now is 0.75" (1.9cm) -- not heavy, but a respectable amount.

It's raining lightly at sunset this evening, at the end of a day that has featured numerous periods of mainly light rain showers.  We actually had a brief period of heavier rain very early this morning -- around 2:00am -- which delivered a quick 0.35" (9mm).  I'll try to get an updated rainfall amount for the day posted later this evening.

The prolonged recess in active monsoon conditions which we dealt with for the better part of the second half of August has obviously come to an end.  A return to a general southeasterly flow in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere, combined with a south-southwesterly flow in the higher levels has erased the vast pockets of drier and more stable air which were in place across much of Himalayan north India during the previous 15 days or so.  Although there has been a lot of mainly light rain shower action today, we still haven't seen very much fog yet, but I expect that to change as we continue progressing through the week.

Computer models are still showing the potential for some very heavy rainfall from Haryana into Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Jammu & Kashmir by Thursday and Friday -- with heavy rain potential lingering into early Saturday as well.  Some drying out of the atmosphere is anticipated for early next week, but extended range data shows yet another surge of tropical moisture waiting in the wings.  Contrary to what you may have heard elsewhere, Monsoon 2014 is not over.