the latest...

**There have been a few very light rain showers in the area early this Thursday morning. Temperatures remain extremely mild -- near 62ºF/17ºC at sunrise...

Monday, March 31, 2014

march leaves quietly... (pm.31.mar.14)>

Monday's stats: 

Low temp: 52.3F (11.3C)
High temp: 65.9F (18.8C)
Rainfall: trace

There are some clouds lingering along the mountain slopes at sunset this evening, otherwise skies are rapidly clearing.  Once again we enjoyed lots of bright sunshine during the morning hours, but there was a fairly aggressive build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains by mid-day, which led to some isolated showers and even some thunder up there during the mid- to late afternoon.  I witnessed a couple of sprinkles and heard a rumble of two of thunder around 5:20pm on TIPA Road just before it started to clear out again.  This final day of March was the third-warmest of the month at my location in the upper part of town.

It looks like we have one more day of relatively quiet weather as April arrives.  There should be a good amount of sunshine again tomorrow, with again the threat of some cloud/isolated shower development over the mountains -- along with pleasantly mild temps.  An upper-level disturbance currently centered over northwestern Iran will be quickly making its way toward northern India however, and will bring us an increasing chance of a couple of periods of showers and thundershowers between Wednesday afternoon and mid-day Thursday.  It's starting to look like the best chance of a round of significant rainfall will occur on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.  Temperatures will temporarily cool off in response.

By late Thursday a major surge of warmer air throughout all layers of the atmosphere will push in from the southwest.  We should have a period of generally stable conditions lasting through Saturday, but then the risk of some showers and thunderstorms will increase yet again by mid-day Sunday into Monday.  It is clear that our overall weather pattern is still not shifting into a long-term drier mode...

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.

pleasing performance... (am.31.mar.14)>

Our sky is 100% clear early this morning, just as the sun begins to peek above the mountains.  I'm recording an overnight low of 52.3F (11.3C) which has occurred within the last hour, and there has been no rainfall overnight.  The humidity stands at 45%.

By all indications, we're set up for another very nice day -- and unless there are some surprise developments over the mountains this afternoon, March should go out like a docile lamb.  A feeble high pressure ridge remains sprawled across northern India, with atmospheric temperature profiles which are keeping things relatively stable.  This morning's sunshine will again be threatened by some PM cumulus cloud build-up over the mountains -- but hopefully there won't be anything further than that to worry about.  Tomorrow (Tue) is looking very good also, with our temperatures perhaps rising another couple of degrees for afternoon highs to kick off the month of April.

We'll have to keep our eyes on the next upper-level disturbance, however, which will give us a glancing blow between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening.  It's still not looking like a very significant system at this point, but some scattered showers and thundershowers are a good bet as it sweeps by to our north and west.  In its wake, even warmer air is expected to surge in from the southwest over the weekend.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST for the coming five days on the tab above.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

an agreeable stretch... (pm.30.mar.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.2F (11.2C)
High temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
Rainfall: none

The build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains which began late this morning is rapidly fizzling this evening, leaving us with mostly clear skies at sunset.  It has been undeniably one of the nicer days of this post-winter season, with plenty of sunshine as the clouds remained confined mainly to more up-mountain locations.  My high temp in the upper part of town was actually only the fourth warmest of the month -- we made it above 68F (20C) on the 16th and 17th, and just a fraction of a degree above today's high on the 22nd.

We still haven't tasted the kind of 70F (21C)+ warmth that is normally common by this time of year, but considering the unseasonably cool and wet weather of the past couple of months, it has been nice to at least get something a bit closer to seasonal averages.  The high pressure ridge in place across north India right now is a rather weak and feeble one, but it's been enough to provide us with a relatively stable atmosphere, while allowing milder air south of us to creep a bit further northward.  It looks like things will remain calm and pleasant for another couple of days, with temps perhaps rising slightly higher.

As you may have guessed, this nice weather is not going to stick around forever.  We're going to be seeing some changes as early as Wednesday, as a fresh upper-level disturbance pushes into the area from the west.  The chance of some showers and thundershowers will be on the increase by late Wednesday, and continue until Thursday afternoon -- though this system is still not looking very robust at this point.  A surge of even warmer air will come in by the weekend, but there will also be a good chance of more rain showers as next week arrives...

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

we deserve it... (am.30.mar.14)>

A nearly perfect Sunday morning is dawning, with clear skies at sunrise.  I've recorded an overnight low of 52.2F (11.2C) here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center, and no precipitation since last report.  Humidity is currently 50%.

We're getting some well-deserved nice weather for a change.  Although we've had random dry and pleasant days here and there this month, it's been hard to string more than two in a row together.  A building ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will dominate our weather pattern here in northern India through Tuesday -- providing us with generally sunny skies, pleasantly mild temperatures, and little chance of any significant precipitation.  Of course we all know that even the tiniest bit of instability can trigger a thundershower over the Dhauladhars during the PM hours -- so we still have to be aware of that potential and not be too shocked if it happens.

Although temperatures warmed up rather dramatically yesterday, and should hit the mid-60sF (18C) each of the next few days, that's STILL cooler than it should be as we cross from March into April.  There are probably few complaints, though.

There will be a new disturbance approaching on Wednesday, and that's going to bring us an increasing chance of some scattered showers and thundershowers again -- especially between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Saturday, March 29, 2014

some nice days... (pm.29.mar.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
High temp: 63.9F (17.7C)
Rainfall: none

There are some patches of clouds gradually dissipating along the mountains this evening, otherwise we have mostly clear skies as sunset approaches.  It's been a very agreeable Saturday -- with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.  We did have a variety of cloudiness at times, ranging from some patches of high, thin cirrus clouds to a fairly impressive build-up of cumulus over the mountains that looked a bit threatening for a while during the mid-afternoon.  But none of it really obscured the sun for long, and my temp in the upper part of town ended up being a couple of degrees (F) above expectations.

Satellite pics this evening show some isolated showers/thunder over some of the higher elevations along the Himalayan chains -- from Kashmir into Uttarakhand -- and that's evidence that the air mass over northern India is not totally stable.  Warmer air pushing in at the lower levels combined with significantly colder air aloft may keep that risk of isolated PM thunder development over the higher mountains to our north and east, despite the great weather expected here on the southwest side of the mountains.  High pressure, though weak, will be the primary weather feature through early Wednesday, and that should provide us with a good amount of sunshine along with temperatures trying desperately to approach norms for the March/April transition.

The next upper-level disturbance will bring us a period of scattered showers and/or thundershowers between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, but at least at this point, it doesn't look like a very strong system.  Then, there are now more and more hints of a significant warm-up by next weekend which could finally take us above 70F (21C) for the first time this season.  We shall watch...

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

attempts at improvement... (am.29.mar.14)>

It's not 100% cloud-free early this Saturday morning, but there's plenty of sunshine out there nonetheless.  Looking very nice.  According to satellite pics, there were a couple of isolated light rain showers across parts of western Himachal overnight, but it doesn't look like much (if anything) was added to my rain gauge -- leaving the rainfall total since Thursday night at 0.71" (1.8cm).  I'm recording a low temperature of 51.6F (10.9C), and the humidity this morning is 41%.

According to the available data and charts, we're now embarking upon a period of about four days of better weather, thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure which will be attempting to build across northwest India.  It's not as robust of a fair-weather pattern as we'd like to be seeing this time of year, but it's at least looking more calm and peaceful and bright than what we've had to deal with during the past week or so.  The caveat, of course, is the menacing risk of some kind of cloud/thundershower development over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  We'll just have to be aware of that and keep watch for it on a day-by-day basis.  Otherwise, sunshine is looking more plentiful, as temperatures push back into a pleasant range -- though still remaining a few degrees below average for this time of year.

Looking further down the road, there will be another upper-level disturbance ripping across northern India late Wednesday through Thursday, bringing with it an increasing chance of a few showers.  Then another few days of drier and warmer weather arriving next weekend -- although I have very little confidence in computer model guidance beyond about 5-6 days.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Friday, March 28, 2014

brighter weekend... (pm.28.mar.14)>

*Update @ 8:41pm... Total rainfall for the month of March at my location here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center is 7.94" (20.2cm).  This is more than double the average/normal amount for March.  If you remember, our February total rainfall was also more than double the norm.

-----------------------------------------------------------
Friday's stats:

Low temp: 46.0F (7.8C)
High temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 0.27" (7mm)
24 hour rainfall: 0.71" (1.8cm)

What a beautiful evening we're getting to enjoy after the damp and gloomy weather of the past 36 hours or so.  We have partly cloudy skies at sunset, with a lingering thundershower visible well off to our southeast.  Although there were a couple of significant periods of rain today, along with a few other brief showers, we didn't really add all that much to our 24 hour rainfall total (above) -- leaving us with well less than an inch of rain from this most recent storm system.  It was nice to see some glimpses of sunshine during the afternoon, though there was some thunder and a brief shower again just after 4pm.

I'm hesitant to say that this weather disturbance is finished with us, as there could be some scattered showers and possibly a thundershower in the vicinity overnight.  Tomorrow, the computer models are still hinting at some isolated shower development somewhere around our area -- but we should definitely see much nicer conditions than we've been struggling through the last couple of days.

By tomorrow night and Sunday there will be a rather broad ridge of high pressure trying to build across northwest India and adjoining areas, which should be the main weather feature into the middle of next week.  We're going to have to be aware of a bit of afternoon instability which could trigger an isolated thundershower over the Dhauladhars, otherwise it looks like we should be able to enjoy some truly nice springtime weather for a few days.  Sunshine and scattered clouds along with pleasantly mild temperatures should be in place for our March-to-April transition, though the risk of some showers will creep back in by late Wednesday.

CURRENT FORECAST details are on the tab at the top of the page.

a bit depressing... (am.28.mar.14)>

There's been a lot of cloudiness for us to put up with recently, and the case is the same this morning -- it's totally overcast just before sunrise.  We had a fairly impressive period of rain with some thunder overnight, and my rain gauge is showing 0.44" (1.1cm).  I recorded a low temp of 46.0F (7.8C) during the rain, but it's bounced back to 53.8F (12.1C) at the moment.  Humidity is temporarily lower -- at 40%.

Our latest weather disturbance is showing up on satellite pics and upper-air charts as a weak upper-level circulation over southern Afghanistan this morning.  It's not a very strong or dynamic system, but as it continues moving towards northern India today into this evening and encounters deep moisture already in place, there will likely be more rain and thundershower development occurring.  We've already received almost half of the amount of rain I was expecting this system to produce -- so if we end up getting another couple of rounds of moderate rain by late tonight or early Saturday morning, we'll end up with well over an inch (2.5cm) of total rainfall.

It still looks like we'll be shifting into a trend of improving weather starting tomorrow, and especially on Sunday.  A weak ridge of high pressure will try very hard to establish itself across northwest India, providing us with drier, calmer, sunnier, and probably warmer conditions through Tuesday of next week.  But yes -- there is another potential rain-maker in the forecast by Wednesday.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

rain potential increases... (pm.27.mar.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
High temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
Rainfall: trace

The view outside at sunset this evening is very similar to what it looked like at sunrise -- with thick high clouds and some large patches of mid-level cloudiness across the area.  There are also a couple of light sprinkles of rain happening at the moment, and we've had a bit of drizzle and a few sprinkles off and on since late this morning -- though there's been nothing measurable.  Sunshine was limited to a few fleeting glimpses here and there, and that kept our temperatures from moving very much at all today.

All week we've been looking toward an increasing chance of some significant rainfall starting tonight and continuing through Friday night.  That outlook still seems to be on target, as the latest upper-level disturbance moves east-northeastward in our persistent and stubborn flow aloft.  As I mentioned this morning, there's no well-defined circulation center associated with this disturbance, but it has managed to gather up a significant amount of moisture from the Arabian Sea, which will be translated into developing showers and thundershowers here along the mountains of northern India during the coming 24-36 hours or so.  I think we'll see rainfall amounts of around one inch (2.5cm) at the most, but potential totals will become more clear by tomorrow morning.

There could be some lingering showers in the area on Saturday, but then we will find ourselves in a major improvement mode as the new week arrives.  Apart from the risk of a PM thundershower over the mountains, we should embark upon a period of a few days of drier, sunnier and milder weather as March comes to an end and April arrives.  It doesn't look like a permanent change, but at least a step in the right direction.

The CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

clouds trump sun... (am.27.mar.14)>

We are 100% socked in with clouds at sunrise this morning -- it looks pretty threatening, but there are actually no showers in the area right now, nor has there been any rainfall overnight here at my location in the upper part of town.  I'm recording a low temp of 53.2F (11.8C), and humidity is hovering around 40%.

There is an extensive area of mid- and high cloudiness extending from the northern Arabian Sea into northern India this morning, in association with a couple of disturbances riding northeastward in the upper-level flow.  There is no real strong circulation center associated with this whole system, but it has gathered a large batch of tropical moisture which has led to all of this cloudiness -- and may fuel some significant shower and thundershower development during the coming 36-48 hours.  We may see some peeks of sun today, but I think the clouds are definitely going to win the day.

The best chance of rain still appears to be between late tonight and late Friday night, with a couple of random showers possibly lingering into Saturday.  I don't think we'll have rainfall amounts anywhere near that of our most recent storm system (1.87"/4.7cm), but it's possible there could be some one inch (2.5cm) totals somewhere around the area.

A more stable pattern is expected to develop over northern India by late Saturday and Sunday, which looks now like it could keep things relatively calm and dry, and a bit warmer, through Tuesday of next week (the 1st of April).  But we're still not talking about a pattern shift that would totally put an end to occasional bouts of rainfall as we head through the first week of the new month...

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

unstable atmosphere... (pm.26.mar.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1F (11.7C)
High temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
Rainfall: trace

We have a partly cloudy sky at sunset this evening, with some towering cumulus clouds producing some widely scattered thundershowers to our east and south.  There has been a lot of variability in sky conditions today -- plenty of cloudiness, but also some nice periods of sunshine (especially during the mid- to late afternoon hours).  There were even some sprinkles and a brief very light shower during the early afternoon, but not enough to register a measurement in my rain gauge.

This wet and unseasonably cool month of March is getting down to its final days, and it looks like we've got more unstable and unsettled weather to deal with before all is said and done.  The upper-level flow (which steers the general pattern) will contain a few more disturbances between now and Saturday, and that's going to keep us watching for some isolated to widely scattered shower development during the coming 24-36 hours, with the chance of rain increasing further on Friday and Friday night.  The risk of significant rainfall of perhaps an inch (2.5cm) or so exists between late Thursday night and early Saturday morning.  Otherwise, expect the sun to be eclipsed by periods of cloudiness more often than not between now and the first part of the weekend.

According to the latest extended range computer model data, there should be a ridge of high pressure building across north India by late Saturday into Sunday.  This should set us up for a few days of warmer and generally dry weather as we shift into April -- but it may not last much longer than that before yet more rainy weather threatens.

The CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

no big breakthroughs... (am.26.mar.14)>

There are many patches of mid- and high cloudiness across the area at sunrise this morning, with a temperature of 54.5F (12.5C).  My overnight low temp here in the upper part of town was a mild 53.1F (11.7C), and though there may have been a few random light sprinkles or a light shower somewhere in the vicinity, my rain gauge shows nothing measurable.  The humidity this morning is 39%.

We are stuck in a rut with this weather pattern right now -- and it doesn't look like we'll see any major shake-ups until perhaps early next week.  The upper-level low pressure circulation which has been spinning around over Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan for the past several days is still there, and will only slowly weaken and begin to lift off to the northeast by the time the weekend arrives.  This upper-level feature is keeping a west-southwesterly flow firmly established from the Persian Gulf all the way across northern India, which is transporting disturbance after disturbance along its track.  With a moderate amount of moisture in place, we'll see more back-and-forth between sun and clouds... and the risk of some isolated/random shower or thundershower development remains possible.  It's still looking like we could see a another period of more significant rainfall sometime between Thursday night and early Saturday.

As we saw yesterday, this air mass is capable of delivering some pleasant temperatures as long as we can get the sun to cooperate -- but several hours of clouds will put a damper on upward thermometer movement.  At the end of March our average high temperature is very close to 70F (21C) -- but we've yet to reach that level this season, and probably won't until after April arrives.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.
  

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

not totally settled... (pm.25.mar.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.2F (7.9C)
High temp: 61.1F (16.2C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.22" (6mm)
Rainfall since Sunday night: 1.87" (4.7cm)

Clouds have been thickening up again late this afternoon and now during the evening, otherwise we've been able to enjoy a lot of sunshine today.  Rain showers before sunrise never redeveloped anywhere below the high mountain peaks, and even the patches of clouds during the early morning quickly dissipated.  It turned out to be a very nice day after a couple of rather gloomy ones -- with temperatures quickly bouncing back as well.

Unfortunately, we're not really going to see a dramatic turn to a quiet and stable weather pattern over the course of the coming several days.  There's even a bit of thundershower development showing up on satellite pics just to our west-southwest this evening, which could hold together and move across our area later tonight.  A stubborn low pressure circulation continues to spin around over Turkmenistan (yes, it is still there), and will keep a west-southwesterly flow embedded with occasional disturbances running across northern India all the way into the early part of the weekend.  We'll have some sunshine at times, but also periods of cloudiness and at least a slight chance of a couple of random showers and/or thundershowers both tomorrow and Thursday.  The rain risk could increase even further from late Thursday night into early Saturday -- so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

There are a few hints of some kind of a positive shift in the weather pattern starting on Sunday, and especially after April arrives early next week.  It is way too early to get very excited about that --but if it turns out to be for real, we should see a rather significant jump in temperatures along with diminishing chances of rain.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

hopeful signs... (am.25.mar.14)>

There are some nice breaks in the overcast at sunrise this morning, but there have been some rain showers as recently as about an hour ago.  In fact, scattered showers and occasionally gusty winds were going on throughout most of the night -- and my rain gauge shows an additional 0.38" (1.0cm) since 9:15pm.  The total rainfall since very late Sunday night has been 1.87" (4.7cm) here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center.  The current temp is 50.4F (10.2C), but I'm recording an overnight low of 46.2F (7.9C).

This recent blast of wet weather happened almost exactly according to scheduled expectations, and also has delivered expected amounts of rainfall.  The ingredients which led to that lengthy period of rain are now disassembling, and we should see some improving weather during the coming mid-week period.  There will still be enough instability and lingering moisture in this air mass to keep us concerned about a few scattered showers or maybe a thundershower today, but we'll also see some sunshine to lift our spirits.  Rain chances won't drop to zero tomorrow (Wed) or Thursday either, but we should at least be able to enjoy many hours of dry weather -- with the risk of showers confined mainly to the PM hours over the mountains.

The next upper-level disturbance will come knocking by Thursday night, however, and that will increase our rain/thunder chances yet again for Friday into perhaps early Saturday.  In the meantime, some sunny breaks will boost temperatures into the pleasant category, but still a few degrees below normal for the final days of March.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Monday, March 24, 2014

more than enough rain... (pm.24.mar.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 46.0F (7.8C)*
High temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 1.23" (3.1cm)*
Rainfall since midnight: 1.49" (3.8cm)*
*updated @ 9:15pm

It is totally overcast at as the sky darkens this evening, and light rain continues to fall.  We had some periods of light rain before sunrise this morning, but then there was a break until about 10:30am when a heavier batch of rain began moving in.  Since that time it has been raining almost continuously, though we've had several periods when it's not been much more than a thick drizzle.  This has been the second day in a row with virtually no sunshine at all -- and in combination with the rain today, temperatures have been about 14F below normal for the end of March.

A southwesterly flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere around a stationary low pressure center to our northwest over Turkmenistan is transporting a rather strong wave of energy across northern India today.  At the same time, we've got south-southeasterly winds in the lower levels which are pumping in abundant moisture.  This has kept widespread rain developing and redeveloping across Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and much of Jammu & Kashmir since very early this morning.  The satellite view is hinting that we may be getting close to the backside of the most persistent rainfall later tonight, and as the upper-level energy also eases up, we will probably be in for some significant improvements by early tomorrow (Tue) morning.  There could still be some showers around tomorrow, but I think we'll see some sunshine as well, allowing our temperatures to quickly recover.

Although rain chances won't disappear altogether, things should be much nicer during the middle of the week, with a mix of clouds and sun, along with more pleasant temps.  Unfortunately, we may have to deal with yet another significant round of wet weather from late Thursday until very early Saturday.  There is still no chance of an extended period of truly warm, dry and quiet weather as we approach the end of the month.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.


rain gear needed... (am.24.mar.14)>

It is cloudy just before sunrise this morning, and there are a few light sprinkles in the area at the moment.  We've had some off and on periods of rain overnight, which have added up to 0.26" (7mm) in my rain gauge here in the upper part of town -- and I'm recording a low temp of 47.3F (8.5C).  It is currently 49.1F (9.5C), and the humidity is 60%.

There's a lot of weather to watch during the next 24 hours or so, as a wave of upper-level energy intersects with a very juicy batch of moisture here along the mountains of northern India.  That upper-level low pressure and circulation center over Turkmenistan is the dynamic driver of all this, and is still expected to move very little until the latter part of this week.  Our highest risk of significant rainfall will continue until early tomorrow (Tues) morning -- with more than an inch (2.5cm) of additional rain quite likely by then.  There will probably be some thunder and gusty winds at times as well.

We can look forward to some kind of break in the action, along with some (hopefully) nice periods of sunshine between late Tuesday and mid-day Thursday, but then the next wave of energy and accompanying moisture will move in starting on Thursday night.  That will increase rain chances again through Friday into perhaps Saturday morning.  Any sunshine we can get this week will allow temperatures to rise well above 60F (15.5C), but it will obviously be cooler than that during periods of cloudiness and rain.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

Sunday, March 23, 2014

another wet spell... (pm.23.mar.14)>

*Update @ 9:20pm... According to satellite pics there is a large area of rain and thunderstorms pushing into central Punjab right now... and its northeastward movement should bring it into our area later tonight.  Of course it could fall apart as it moves in our direction, but I think the atmospheric environment would favor continued development/strengthening overnight.

*Update @ 7:57pm... The first rain showers of this new weather system have developed during the past 15 minutes or so.  They're only light thus far, but a sign of things to come.

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Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)
High temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
Rainfall: trace (updated at 7:57pm)

There are thick clouds blanketing the entire area just before sunset this evening.  Other than a couple of faint glimmers of sun, the clouds have been very consistent and persistent today, keeping temperatures from rising very much at all.  In fact, it ended up being several degrees cooler than yesterday due to the absence of sunshine -- which we don't need a thermometer to tell us.  There may have been a couple of sprinkles somewhere around the area during the past couple of hours, but I haven't seen any rain drops yet myself.

A stationary upper-level low pressure system is sitting on top of central Turkmenistan this evening, with the center of circulation expected to move very little during the next couple of days at least.  It is now tapping into an impressive amount of moisture and pulling it northward from the Arabian Sea -- setting the stage for some potentially significant shower and thunderstorm development in our general vicinity between later tonight and early Tuesday.  An average of computer model data would point to between 1 and 2 inches (2.5-5cm) of rain by about noon on Tuesday, so if this indeed occurs, we'll see our March rainfall tally rise even further above normal than it has already.  There could also be some periods of strong and gusty winds if/when strong thunderstorms get going during the coming 12-18 hours or so.

It looks like we'll see a decent break in the action between later on Tuesday and perhaps Thursday afternoon, but then yet another wave of rain and thunderstorms will enter the picture for the latter part of the week.  Our air mass throughout this week will support pleasant temperatures -- but that's only if we can get several hours of sunshine now and then.  

Stay tuned for updates, and check the CURRENT FORECAST on the tab above.

clouds in control... (am.23.mar.14)>

There is extensive and rather thick high cloudiness across the area just before sunrise this morning.  I've recorded an overnight low of 52.0F (11.1C), and there has been no precipitation.  The humidity reading this morning is 38%.

The last couple of days we've seen a lot of variability between sunshine and clouds, with some afternoon thundershower development in the mountains just to our north and east.  Upper-level winds have steered that development away from us, allowing us to hear a couple of rumbles of thunder, but preventing any rainfall here in McLeod.  Temperatures have been really pleasant, though still a few degrees below normal for this stage of March.

An upper-level low pressure circulation is now well-formed, and spinning over Turkmenistan.  This is the feature that I mentioned a couple of days ago -- saying that it was going to remain fairly stationary all the way through most of this coming week.  As it sits and spins, though, it's going to be ejecting several waves of upper-level energy across Afghanistan, northern Pakistan and northern India.  Deeper moisture is now appearing ahead of this system, and combined with that upper-level dynamic energy, we're going to be seeing a better chance of some significant shower and thunderstorm activity in our area during the coming 48 hours or so.  I still think the best window of opportunity for significant rain/thunder will be between late tonight and very early Tuesday morning.

We'll be flirting with periods of instability off and on throughout this new week, so don't expect any extended stretches of sunny and shower-free weather through Friday.  We will get some nice breaks here and there, and that will keep our temperatures rising above 60F (15.5C) on most days -- which is actually not much of a feat at all for the end of March.

Details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab at the top of the page.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

quite comfortable... (am.22.mar.14)>

*Update @ 5:52pm... 

Today's low: 52.7F (11.5C)
Today's high: 65.5F (18.6C)
Rainfall: none

There are scattered thundershowers lined up all along the front ranges of the Himalayas this evening, from Kashmir through Himachal and Uttarakhand into Nepal.  This development has stayed to our north and east, and should diminish as the sun sets this evening.  Check the latest CURRENT FORECAST on the tab above.

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We have a clear sky across the area at sunrise on this Saturday morning.  I'm recording an overnight low temp of 53.2F (11.8C) here in the upper part of town, and there has been no precipitation during the past 24 hours.  Humidity this morning is 30%.

Yesterday we had an all-day battle between sun and clouds again, but there was enough sunshine to bump the high temp to 61.7F (16.5C).  It's looking like it will be at least that warm both today and Sunday, as long as we can continue to come up with several hours of halfway decent sunshine.  Our general weather pattern remains on the fickle and changeable side, however, as a west-southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere continues to bring in weak disturbances.  Yesterday there was a bit of thunder over the mountains around 5:00pm, but other than that, it hasn't become unstable enough yet to trigger any significant shower/thundershower development.  That will probably remain the case today -- just don't be surprised by a random afternoon shower w/thunder somewhere around our area.

A more significant batch of upper-level energy and some surging moisture are still in the forecast for tomorrow (Sun) night into Tuesday.  That's going to give us a better chance of a more significant round of showers and thunderstorms -- mainly between very late Sunday night and Tuesday morning.  We'll probably see a dip in temperatures during that period, otherwise it should be fairly pleasant (though a bit cooler than normal) for the season over the course of the next several days at least.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Friday, March 21, 2014

changeable... (am.21.mar.14)>

We have scattered high cloudiness across the area at sunrise this morning, with comfortably mild temperatures.  I've recorded an overnight low of 52.2F (11.2C), but it is up to 56.0F (13.3C) at the moment.  Humidity is a low 33%, and there has been no rainfall since last report.

Although there are no really major storm systems on the weather charts during the coming several days, we are going to be entering an extended period of unsettled conditions.  An upper-level low pressure circulation will develop just to the east of the Caspian Sea in the next 24 hours or so, and computer models show it remaining nearly stationary all the way through next week.  This is going to put us under the influence of a west-southwesterly flow that will be full of weak disturbances -- each capable of stirring up scattered showers and thundershowers across Himalayan north India.  In between, we'll see a lot of back and forth between sunshine and clouds.  If we do get a period of longer lasting, heavier rainfall, it looks like it would occur sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday.  Just be prepared for lots of variability in our weather conditions -- effective immediately.

We do have a relatively mild air mass in place, so as long as we can get several hours of sunshine here and there, temperatures are going to be fairly pleasant, though still below normal for the season.  Of course periods of showers and/or thunderstorms will bring in temporarily cooler air, which shouldn't stick around for long.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

springtime variables... (pm.20.mar.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
High temp: 59.3F (15.2C)
Rainfall: none

We've got a mix of clouds and sunshine this evening just before sunset.  It's been that kind of day, with periods of both clouds and sun alternating back and forth since early this morning.  There could have been some light showers somewhere in the area, but I didn't personally witness any myself, and the rain gauge is dry.  Temperatures remain several degrees below where they should be on the first day of spring.

Yes, it is the vernal equinox, the first day of spring in the northern hemisphere, and the day when there are equal amounts of daylight and darkness as the direct rays of the sun shine on the equator.  By the end of March we'd like to see our temperatures getting closer to 70F (21C), but it doesn't look like that's going to happen for us anytime in the near future.  Although it's much milder than it was just ten days ago, we still can't seem to break through into anything resembling consistently warm temps.

Our overall weather pattern remains rather unsettled as well.  As I scroll through the charts for the next week to 10 days (and beyond), it's amazing to see that there is still no strong indication of a shift to a more stable type of pattern.  A general west-southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere will transport several disturbances and batches of moisture across northern India between now and the end of next week, and that's going to keep periods of clouds and the risk of scattered showers and thundershowers in the forecast.  In the near term, the best chance of rain appears to be between Sunday night and Tuesday morning (sound familiar?) -- but the computer models have been very inconsistent, so we'll keep watching...

Get CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

the vernal equinox... (am.20.mar.14)>

There are a few traces of very thin cirrus clouds across the area early this morning, otherwise it is mostly clear.  I've recorded a low temp of 48.6F (9.2C) here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center -- which is exactly the same as yesterday morning's low.  Humidity is 34%, and there has been no precipitation since last report.

The vernal equinox -- better known as the official start of the spring season in the northern hemisphere -- occurs at 10:27pm IST tonight.  Normally we've tasted a lot more truly springtime weather by this time, but this year things have been lagging well behind the usual schedule.  At the moment, there is nothing really terrible on the weather charts, but the general pattern is not all that great, either.  We'll have a west-southwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere across north India and the rest of the western Himalayan region for the coming several days, embedded with a few weak disturbances.  Warmer air in the lower level will be attempting to push northward, but there will also be occasional pockets of much colder air aloft that will keep things marginally unstable right through the weekend.  Expect sun, occasional clouds, and even the risk of an isolated thundershower (mainly over the mountains) -- with that thundershower risk increasing as we head toward the first part of the new week.

There are indications that we'll be having an extended period of unsettled weather which could take over most of next week.  It's not looking like a well-organized storm system, just a broad area of instability and lurking moisture which could provide us with scattered thundershowers nearly each and every day.  The good news is that temperatures should be fairly pleasant, though still hanging below average for the season.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above for details.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

decent enough... (pm.19.mar.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
High temp: 60.6F (15.9C)
Rainfall: trace

There are a few random clouds clinging to the mountains at sunset this evening, otherwise we have mostly clear skies.  Sunshine this morning did yield to rapid cloud development over the Dhauladhars starting around 11:00am, then a period of thick clouds, a couple of rumbles of thunder, and even a few sprinkles of rain between about 1:45 and 2:30pm.  But our skies cleared out again shortly after 3:00pm, leaving us with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.

This rather featureless, marginally unstable atmosphere is going to remain with us for the next few days.  There are no significant storm systems in the picture at the moment, but also no really reliable fair weather pattern.  We should continue to see a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds, along with at least a slight chance of some thundershower development over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  Temperatures will be relatively pleasant, but still several degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.

Computer models haven't settled on a solution regarding a stronger upper-level disturbance moving in during the first part of next week.  Right now it appears we're in for a fairly long period of unsettled weather starting late Saturday or Sunday -- with increasing chances of some significant rain and thunderstorm action by Monday.  Again, models are inconsistent right now, but it definitely looks like we've got yet another active period of weather on the way.  The very wet pattern we've been stuck in since early February really shows no sign of changing dramatically before the end of the month.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

pm uncertainties... (am.19.mar.14)>

The sky is absolutely clear this morning as the sun gets ready to peek above the mountains.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 48.6F (9.2C), with just a trace of rainfall from some brief light showers right around 9:00pm.  Humidity is currently 44%.

It's looking very nice here at the start of the day, but there are some question marks and uncertainties about what might be happening by later in the afternoon.  Mountain micro-climate factors could be in play, thanks to some nice warming at the surface combined with lingering pools of much colder air in the upper atmosphere.  Wind profiles suggest that if any shower/thundershower development occurs along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, it could drift in our direction before dissipating in the evening.  On the other hand, the instability issues could balance out, and we could be left with a nice day.  I guess we can enjoy the sunshine while it lasts, and just be prepared for that mountain thunder potential during the PM, if it starts to bubble up.

The above scenario could repeat itself each day for the remainder of the week, since we lack a genuinely stable air mass to totally squash any afternoon cloud/thunder development.  Still... it's looking pretty good all the way into Saturday, with a decent amount of sunshine and relatively pleasant temperatures.  The next significant storm system may begin to affect us on Sunday, with an increasing chance of more widespread rain and thunderstorms in the area early next week.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

not totally stable... (pm.18.mar.14)>

*MARCH RAINFALL is now 5.34" (13.6cm).  The average for all of March is 3.9" (9.9cm).  Total rainfall since the 3rd of February is 14.8" (37.6cm)!  Yes, it has been wet the last 6+ weeks.!

*Update @ 9:04pm... There are some very light rain showers at my house, with partly cloudy skies.  Evidence that this air mass is not really very stable.  Still expecting clearing to occur later tonight.

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Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.4F (5.8C)
High temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
Rainfall since 7am: 0.41" (1.0cm)
Storm total rainfall: 1.01" (2.6cm)

There has been an ominous build-up of clouds over the mountains this evening which has looked like it might develop into more thundershowers -- but now as sunset approaches, it seems to be fizzling out.  The nastiest weather of the day was confined to the early morning hours, with another secondary period of rain showers, thunder and hail around the noon hour.  Otherwise, we managed to come up with much more sunshine than expected, with other scattered thundershowers remaining mainly in the mountains to our north and east.  Temperatures varied widely -- depending on the presence of rain or sun.

What's left of our latest upper-level disturbance is over Ladakh this evening, weakening as it pushes through the high Himalayas into western Tibet.  Unlike the system which moved through this time last week, there is no strong ridge of high pressure building in in its wake -- and that means we're going to have to deal with some lingering instability during the coming several days at least.  The term 'instability' basically means that there will be disparity between warming at the surface versus lingering much colder air in the upper-levels.  This leads to the potential for shower and or thundershower development during the afternoon over the mountains, which could possibly sneak down into McLeod at some point.  There should still be a good amount of sun during the remainder of this week -- just keep in mind the potential for an afternoon/evening episode of thunder.

Although temperatures are expected to be much milder than they were just a week to ten days ago, it's still going to be a few degrees cooler than normal for the latter half of March.  In fact, it probably won't get as warm as it was on Sunday and Monday during at least the next week or so.  AND -- the chance of rain will be on the increase again over the weekend, I'm sorry to report.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

system overhead... (am.18.mar.14)>

*Update @ 2:03pm... The variability of conditions today so far has been dizzying.  Our upper-level circulation is centered right over Himachal early this afternoon, and with some good sunshine warming up the surface, we could be in for another round of showers/thunderstorms developing before evening.  The current temp is 57.5F (14.3C) -- much improved from the very chilly early morning temps.  Total rainfall here at my location has been 1.01" (2.6cm) in the past 24 hours.

*Update @ 8:13am... Looking a little brighter at the moment, after a very heavy thunderstorm during the past 45-50mins or so that brought a bit of hail and lots of lightning.  I had another 0.38" (1cm) of rain during that episode, and the temp dipped to a very chilly 42.4F (5.8C).  It's back to 45F (7.2C) now.

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It is cloudy and foggy at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center just before sunrise this morning.  I just heard a rumble of thunder, and there are some showers lurking about.  The night has been an active one -- with occasional showers, thunder, and periods of very high winds.  In my rain gauge there is a total of 0.60" (1.5cm) since the first light rain drops appeared late yesterday afternoon.  Temperatures have been on a roller-coaster ride -- ranging from a recent low of 45.5F (7.5C), up to 61F (16C) around midnight.  Humidity has also been fluctuating wildly, but is currently 82%.

This morning our latest upper-level disturbance and circulation is centered in east-central Pakistan -- southwest of Jammu and west of Amritsar.  We've been in a prime position overnight and early this morning to be the beneficiaries of a combination of upper-level dynamic energy, a pool of much colder air aloft, and plenty of mild, most air lying in wait in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The center of this system will make its way into north India this morning, pass virtually right over the top of us by mid-day, then move off to our east by this evening.  This track will keep us in a favorable area to receive a few more periods of showers and thunderstorms -- not continuously, but off and on throughout much of the day.  Even if skies clear out at some point, be aware of potential redevelopment into the evening hours.

Rain chances should rapidly diminish tonight, with a stretch of quieter weather expected between Wednesday and Friday.  The pattern doesn't look totally stable, however, so we're going to have to keep an eye on the risk of some afternoon thundershower development over the mountains almost each day.  Temperatures should be relatively pleasant, but probably at least a couple of degrees below the norm for the latter half of March.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Monday, March 17, 2014

storm threat... (pm.17.mar.14)>

*Update @ 8:59pm... We're in the midst of the typical kind of extreme turbulence that precedes the arrival of a strong upper-level disturbance here along the front slopes of the mountains.  There's still not been much rainfall to speak of, but with our air mass becoming more and more unstable tonight, I'll be surprised if we don't see some pretty major thunderstorm development before morning arrives.  The temp is now back up to 60F (15.6F), as much colder air begins to arrive in the layers of atmosphere above us.

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Monday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1F (11.7C) -- 5:05pm
High temp: 68.2F (20.1C) -- 10:50am
Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)
updated @ 7:50pm

It's cloudy and breezy just after sunset this evening, with some rain showers scattered around the area.  There was a nice period of sunshine between 10:00 and 11:00am which allowed temperatures to briefly soar, otherwise clouds have been dominant today.  We've had occasionally gusty winds as well, with the first faint rumble of thunder and a couple of light rain showers materializing around 4:15pm.  Up to now, there's been very little in the rain gauge.

We've got an upper-level disturbance and circulation centered over extreme eastern Afghanistan this evening, which will move across the northern half of Pakistan overnight, and then across northern India on Tuesday.  There is a pool of much colder air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere associated with this system, and it's going to be interesting to see how it interacts with the relatively mild and moisture-laden air closer to the surface.  Thus far, none of the precipitation development has been particularly impressive, but that may change later tonight into Tuesday, as the main dynamic energy passes overhead.  I still think there's a good chance we'll have a period of strong thunderstorms before this system makes its exit.  Very gusty winds will also occur on occasion.

Rain chances should diminish significantly by tomorrow evening, setting us up for a return to quieter weather for most of the latter half of the week.  I'm concerned about our air mass remaining marginally unstable though -- due to some pockets of colder air lingering in the upper-levels.  That means we may have to watch for afternoon shower/thunder development over the mountains.

After our recent warm spell, temperatures are already dropping... and will be on the cool side as this system moves through.  Some recovery will occur starting on Wednesday, but it will probably stay on the cool side of March averages into the weekend and possibly beyond.

CURRENT FORECAST information can be found on the tab above.

more and more unstable... (am.17.mar.14)>

*Update @ 8:50am... I failed to mention the usual gusty winds which normally accompany a weather system like this.  Already there has been some of that during the past hour or so.  No rain threatening at the moment -- and other than perhaps some light showers here and there, I think the potential for heavier rain/thunderstorms will hold off until late in the day.

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The sky is overcast at sunrise this morning, but it remains very mild.  My overnight low has been 58.5F (14.7C), and it's just above 60F (15.6C) at the moment.  There has been no rainfall yet, with humidity remaining rather low -- at 37%.

There were lots of Holi shenanigans going on yesterday, but today is actually the official holiday.  The weather situation is not going to be nearly as nice as yesterday, though, due to an approaching upper-level disturbance which is going to bring an increasing chance of some showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on.  Right now that disturbance is beginning to enter extreme western Afghanistan, and will roll eastward -- arriving right over northern India by mid-day tomorrow (Tues).  So far all it has done is stir up a lot of mid- and high cloudiness out ahead of the main circulation, but as increasing amounts of moisture get pushed up against the mountains, we'll start to see some precipitation development.  It's looking like the bulk of the rainfall would occur between this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon -- in the form of a few waves of rain and thunderstorms.  We may have a period of extreme instability for several hours, as some colder air arrives aloft, over-riding this very mild air at the surface.

This system may get out of here more quickly than previously expected, with rain chances rapidly diminishing tomorrow night.  That will leave us with a rather flat and featureless west-to-east flow in the upper-atmosphere for the remainder of the week -- providing us with sunshine and occasional clouds, along with relatively pleasant temperatures.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

warmest since october... (pm.16.mar.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 56.3F (13.5C)
High temp: 68.4F (20.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's cloudy out there at sunset this evening, but what a day we've had.  Though there have been a few periods of mainly high clouds throughout the day, there was also a lot of sunshine -- especially during the middle of the day when the sun angle is highest and the maximum heating normally occurs.  My high temp in the upper part of town (see above) was the warmest I've recorded since way back on the 19th of October, and thus obviously the new warmest temp of the season and of 2014.

Clouds have really thickened up this evening as another wave of energy gets spit out ahead of an upper-level disturbance and circulation center now located over extreme eastern Iran.  This system is going to be our main weather-maker over the course of the coming 48-60 hours or so, gradually putting an end to our recent stretch of quiet and very mild conditions.  Although we have a lot of cloud development getting going in the mid- and upper-levels, it's going to take until the second half of Monday for us to come under the influence of the strong instability necessary to generate significant shower and thunderstorm development.  An updated projection of the most likely period to receive the majority of rainfall appears to be between Monday afternoon and Tuesday late afternoon.  I think around 0.75" to 1.5" (2-4cm) of precipitation is a reasonable prediction at this point.

I'm afraid we're going to lose these recent very pleasant temperatures, though we shouldn't sink to the levels we had to deal with during storm systems of the past month and a half.  It's getting harder and harder for large batches of wintry air to get this far south and stick around for long.  Things are looking pretty good for the latter half of the week, with a mix of clouds and sun and temps running a few degrees below average for mid-March.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

downright balmy... (am.16.mar.14)>

What a balmy Sunday morning... My temperature here in the upper part of town is hovering right around 60F (15.6C), after of an overnight low of just 56.3F (13.5C).  These kinds of temperatures were hard enough to reach for HIGHS up until just recently, and now they're our LOWS.  We have a broken layer of high clouds at sunrise, and the humidity is a mere 33%.  There has been no rainfall since last report.

It's pretty amazing the kind of transformation our atmosphere has undergone in just the past few days.  The chill of winter has almost completely disappeared, and I think most of us would agree that it's finally feeling quite pleasant.  We've arrived at the kind of temperatures that are close to normal/average for the season, after a long long wait.  Right now it appears that we'll see more sunshine today than we did yesterday, despite the continued threat of some periods of high cloudiness -- and that should push us to a new high temp for the season and for 2014.

Although there is a slight chance of a random shower somewhere over the mountains this afternoon, we're still dealing with a basically stable atmosphere that should keep most precipitation development at bay for another 24 hours at least.  Our next storm system will develop in association with an upper-level disturbance now centered over southern Iran.  This wave of energy and circulation will move to northern Pakistan by Tuesday morning, and then across Jammu & Kashmir Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  I'm still not all that impressed with the potential for this system to measure up to a few that we've seen during the past six weeks -- but be prepared for a few periods of showers and thunderstorms between roughly mid-day tomorrow (Mon) and Tuesday evening.  Temperatures will cool off several degrees as well.

There could be a couple of lingering showers on Wednesday, otherwise things are looking fairly calm and quiet for the latter part of the week.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Saturday, March 15, 2014

upcoming events... (pm.15.mar.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 53.6F (12.0C)
High temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
Rainfall: none

The sky at sunset this evening looks very similar to the way it looked at sunrise this morning, with a lot of high cloudiness across the area.  We did get some sunshine poking through at times today, but those high clouds were definitely the dominant feature -- and that gave us a high temp just slightly lower than yesterday's.  Still, it goes down in the books as the second-warmest day of 2014.

A west-southwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere on the west side of a big ridge of high pressure over northern India has been channeling waves of high clouds into Punjab, Himachal and Kashmir today, but it seems that any precipitation has been confined to the highest elevations well to our north.  Relatively warm air is solidly anchored throughout all layers of the atmosphere, and that is keeping things too stable for shower/thundershower development anywhere near us.  Tomorrow (Sunday) we should see more of this back and forth between high clouds and sun, with temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than today.  Rain chances will remain only slight.

The next major item of interest on the weather charts is an upper-level disturbance which is right on top of Kuwait this evening.  It will move rather rapidly east-northeastward during the next couple of days -- ending up over central Pakistan by Tuesday morning.  Our rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase during the day on Monday, then finally diminish early on Wednesday.  This doesn't look like an extremely heavy precipitation event, but it will need to be monitored carefully.  We've already had way more than enough rain during Feb/March, so it wouldn't hurt us at all if this one failed to deliver.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

return of high clouds... (am.15.mar.14)>

The thicker high clouds have made their return during the past several hours, giving us mostly cloudy skies at sunrise.  My overnight low temp here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center has been a very mild 53.6F (12.0C) -- and it's around 56F (13.3C) at the moment.  There has been no rainfall since last report, and the humidity stands at 34%.

The abundant sunshine of the last couple of days was fantastic, but those days are gone now, as a few weak ripples in the upper-level flow are causing some waves of mainly high clouds to ease their way into northwest India.  We should get some periods of sun at times -- both today and tomorrow -- but it doesn't look like we'll be able to come up with the hours and hours of unlimited sunshine that we've recently enjoyed.  This air mass is still a very mild one -- so if we can manage some sunny breaks, we could see temps rising even further than they already have recently.  As I've been mentioning for several days, there will also be an increasing chance of some scattered showers/thunder activity over the mountains this weekend... though I think our chances of getting wet here in McLeod are quite small.

The next significant upper-level disturbance on the weather charts is now over extreme southern Iraq, and will rather rapidly make its way eastward during the coming 48 hours or so.  We should see an increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, with the best chance of rain still looking to be between Monday afternoon and Tuesday evening.  This system should blast through here fairly quickly, however, with clearing and rebounding temperatures in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Friday, March 14, 2014

warmest since november... (pm.14.mar.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 50.2F (10.1C)
High temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
Rainfall: none

There are a few high clouds around the area at sunset this evening, but it's a mild and pleasant one nonetheless.  Sunshine was firmly in control all day long, with very few high clouds and also only a tiny amount of mountain cumulus development during the afternoon hours.  My high temp in the upper part of town (see above) was the warmest I've recorded since the 24th of November, which is the first tangible indication that we are indeed finally climbing out of the winter season.  It has taken an unusually long time this year to finally get above 60F (15.5C).

Today's temperatures are actually still just a shade below normal for this stage of March, which tells us just how much cooler than normal our temps have been during the past several weeks.  But this milder air is here to stay, it appears, and will only be challenged by the threat of increasing high clouds and a slight chance of a couple of showers over the weekend.  Already some upper-level energy is attempting to push into extreme northwest India, and will likely ignite some thundershower development to our north both tomorrow (Sat) and Sunday as well.  Our high pressure ridge should remain strong enough to shield us from most of that development, but keep in mind the risk.  If we can end up with more sun than clouds during the next two days, we'll warm up even further.

We're still expecting a stronger upper-level disturbance to push across northern India on Monday and Tuesday, giving us a better chance of a couple of periods of more significant shower and thunderstorm action.  Right now the best chance of rain looks to be from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening... but of course we'll have to keep watching how the latest data evolves.  Temps will dip during that period as well, but should gradually bounce back again during the middle and latter parts of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST information in detail can be found on the tab above.

march milestones... (am.14.mar.14)>

The sky is clear at sunrise this morning, and I'm recording the mildest overnight low temperature of the year -- 50.2F (10.1C).  That makes for a very pleasant start to what should end up being the finest day weather-wise of 2014 thus far.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and the humidity reading is 34%.

A high pressure ridge is still in control across northwest India, allowing steady warming to continue occurring from the surface into the middle and upper atmosphere.  It's a classic calm and stable situation, which we've seen very little of in the past several weeks.  There is a broad band of high clouds well off to our west across Afghanistan and northern Pakistan, but right now it looks like it won't make it this far today.  If that's indeed the case, we'll be seeing lots of sunshine, with temperatures rising higher than we've experienced since the latter part of November.

Although this weather pattern won't be totally breaking down, there's going to be some upper-level energy rippling through here tomorrow into Sunday -- introducing a chance of some scattered thundershower development over the mountains.  That's going to have to be carefully watched, but I think the shower risk will remain small for us here on this side of the Dhauladhars.  Depending on the sun vs cloud ratio, we could see even warmer temps over the weekend.

There's a stronger upper-level disturbance on the way for Monday into Tuesday, which could bring us a good chance of a few periods of rain and thundershowers.  It will also probably cool us down several degrees in the process.  

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.