the latest...

**There have been a few very light rain showers in the area early this Thursday morning. Temperatures remain extremely mild -- near 62ºF/17ºC at sunrise...

Thursday, July 31, 2014

variety pack is back... (pm.31.jul.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)
High temp: 70.9F (21.6C)
Rainfall: 2.37" (6.0cm) -- as of 4:00pm

It's a pleasant evening... with partly cloudy skies and some nice views of the Dhauladhars (at least for the moment).  Today has featured a lot of variability, with some short but much-appreciated peeks of sunshine this morning, in the midst of waves of clouds and fog, with rain showers developing during the noon hour.  Those showers were mainly light, initially, but we ended up getting a huge downpour that was most concentrated and heavy between 2 and 3pm.  The rain gradually fizzled out shortly after 4pm, but it was definitely a significant dumping to cap off the month of July.

There have been some appearances of sun for a few minutes here and there the last couple of days, but we've also had some very healthy downpours of rain with thunder during the afternoon hours.  That's the trade-off we get this time of year.  Everyone gets excited to see the sunshine, but all it does, really, is just get the surface layers of the atmosphere boiling and churning, with that warming air rising and condensing into thick clouds and moderate to heavy showers.  There's just too much moisture in the atmosphere to escape that phenomenon during the very heart of the monsoon season.

It looks to me like we'll see more of the same as we head into the weekend.  Although computer models are showing a bit of a retreat of the deepest tropical moisture, the mugginess and instability provided by sunny breaks will keep us dodging downpours -- most likely on a daily basis.  No major changes are foreseen as we head though the first full week of August...

Check tabs above for CURRENT FORECAST details and other information.

july's final hours... (am.31.jul.14)>

We have a mid-level overcast sky early this morning, but I don't see much in the way of low cloudiness or fog at the moment.  It's been a quiet and mild night -- I've recorded no rainfall, and the overnight low has been 65.8F (18.8C).  The humidity reading this morning is 85%.

Well we've made it to the final day of July, and due to the very heavy rainfall totals over the course of the last three days or so, it looks like we'll be ending the month very close to historical averages.  Of course there are still about 17 hours to go, so we can't put an official wrap on it just yet.  It seems to me that the overall data and computer model projections are trending toward a slightly drier air mass as we head into the weekend -- but it's also looking slightly warmer as well.  Those two things may cancel each other out, keeping the atmosphere just unstable enough to continue getting occasional downpours of rain, which could be moderate to heavy for generally short durations.

It's looking pretty good for us to see some sunshine peeking through at times -- especially tomorrow (Fri), Saturday, and perhaps on Sunday.  Still, any sunshine won't last long, and will just make it warm and steamy enough to trigger more rain showers and even some thunder.

CURRENT FORECAST details and the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY are located on tabs at the top of the page.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

rain tally ticking... (pm.30.jul.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.02" (2.6cm) -- as of 4:00pm

Our sky has been extremely changeable today, but at this stage of the evening it's mostly cloudy, with some breaks here and there allowing some patches of blue and glimmers of sun at times.  We did have some healthy rain showers today... most of it concentrated between about noon and 4:00pm, but the very heaviest occurred during the 2 to 3 o'clock hour this afternoon.  However, there were also some nice, though relatively brief periods of sunshine from the morning into the early afternoon.

July will be gone soon, but as August arrives, we'll find ourselves in the same situation we've been in for a few weeks now.  We're just now moving into the heart of the monsoon season, so we really can't expect anything more than very brief and temporary relief from the entrenched moisture that is the main characteristic of this time of year.  I'm hopeful about at least some peeks of sunshine as we head through the coming five to seven days, but there shouldn't be a really significant intrusion of drier air that would allow us to enjoy long-lasting lower humidity levels.  In fact, those periods of sun only serve to heat up the lower layers of the atmosphere and destabilize the air mass enough to stir up more rain/thunder showers.

I'm not seeing a pattern favorable for long-lasting rains, but it's likely that we'll receive a period or two of healthy downpours almost every day as we press through the first week of August.

More specific weather info, including average and actual rainfall amounts for our area, can be found on tabs above.

mid-season blues... (am.30.jul.14)>

It has looked like the sun might peek through a bit early this morning, but the clouds seem to be thickening up again during the past half hour or so, with some patches of fog visible as well.  We've had a fairly quiet night -- my rain gauge shows just 0.02" (less than 1mm) since last evening's report, and the humidity reading stands at 90%.  The overnight low temp here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center has been 64.2F (17.9C).

A weak northerly flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere in combination with a turn to more of a south-southeasterly flow in the lower levels will provide the right dynamics to produce rain showers around the area again today.  There is still plenty of moisture in this air mass, in spite of our huge dumping just 24 hours ago, so some heavy downpours are not out of the question.  This scenario applies not only to today, but pretty much every day as we head toward the weekend and beyond.  Of course there will be some dry stretches between periods of rain showers -- and maybe we can come up with some brief periods of sun in the midst of it all as well.

Otherwise, it's really a mundane outlook, which is totally normal as we ease into August.  The overall weather pattern isn't subject to many significant/dramatic shifts this time of year -- just the micro-scale ebbs and flows of tropical moisture here along the mountain slopes.

Take a look at CURRENT FORECAST details and other info, which can be found on tabs above.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

robust performance... (pm.29.jul.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 71.8F (22.1C)
Rainfall since midnight: 5.37" (13.6cm)

It's cloudy.  It's foggy.  It's raining lightly.  And that's the story as we head through the evening.  The rain we've received since late last evening ranks as one of the two largest totals of this monsoon season, with the heaviest of it occurring between roughly 9:30pm last night and about 9:00am this morning.  We've had some redevelopment of thick clouds, fog and some light to moderate rain showers this evening, but there were some brighter periods on and off from mid-day into the early afternoon hours, with some glimpses of sunshine warming our temperatures above 70F for the first time in a few days.

The mega-rain of the past 24 hours was something we've been waiting for, and as often happens, it materialized just when I was on the brink of giving up on it.  There is a complex and ever-changing set of variables that assemble to produce such an extended period of heavy rain, and that combination of moisture, temperature, and directional flow of our air mass throughout the different levels of the atmosphere finally got in sync for us.  We're now not far below the normal/average rainfall for the month of July, and ahead of what I recorded during July 2013.

There are hints of a slight retreat of deeper tropical moisture toward the weekend and maybe into early next week -- otherwise it doesn't look like we're going to get much relief.  Of course we're getting into the very core of the monsoon season, so we shouldn't expect more than perhaps a temporary break in the action now and then.

Check tabs above if you're interested in more specific info...

one of the big ones... (am.29.jul.14)>

*Update @ 8:45am... I've got an additional 0.74" (1.9cm) since 6:30am, with moderate rain in progress.  That ups the total since 9:00pm last night to 5.51" (14.0cm).

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The rain event we've been experiencing since late last evening will probably go down as one of the largest and most memorable of Monsoon 2014.  I've recorded 4.77" (12.1cm) since I updated yesterday's rainfall total at 9:00pm, and it is still raining moderately at the moment.  Of course I was sleeping, or trying to, but it seemed that we had continuous moderate to heavy rain all night long, and the amount in the rain gauge definitely confirms that.  The low temp at my location here in the upper part of town was 63.5F (17.5C), and the current humidity reading is 98%.

When there is so much latent moisture in the air, just hanging around and waiting for the slightest excuse to be wrung out of the atmosphere, it takes only the most subtle reorientation of the mid- and upper-level wind pattern to trigger something like what we've been experiencing the past 10 hours or so.  The view from the satellite perspective is not even that impressive-looking this morning -- compared to how it looked this time yesterday morning -- but the right thermodynamic ingredients are parked right on top of us, and could remain here for the next few hours.  The gullies and nullahs are running quite heavily this morning, from what I can see, so please take it easy and be careful and cautious and aware if you plan to be traveling today.

There is no significant retreat of deep monsoon moisture/conditions indicated by any of the weather data as we finish off July and begin the month of August, so it appears our daily doses of rain (of varying amounts), clouds and occasional fog will continue on...

CURRENT FORECAST details and UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY info can be found on tabs above.

Monday, July 28, 2014

extreme sogginess... (pm.28.jul.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 67.3F (19.6C)
Rainfall: 0.73" (1.9cm) -- as of 9pm

The clouds and fog are as thick this evening as they've been this entire monsoon season thus far.  We've had another day of mostly cloudy skies, periods of fog, and occasional mainly light to moderate rain.  This morning's huge area of rain and thunder only brushed us here in McLeod, but I am hearing of much heavier rainfall not far downhill from us.

Although we've had only a couple of very brief and fleeting glimpses of sun, lots of clouds and fog, and extended hours of light to moderate rain and drizzle since about the middle of last week, the really, truly heavy rainfall has eluded us here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area.  I was almost certain that we would have received at least double the rainfall amounts of the past five or six days, and that we'd have very little trouble ending the month of July with at least the normal/average amount for this wettest month of the year on average.  But -- I still need 8-9" (20-23cm) in my rain gauge during the the next 78 hours or so.  A tall order.

It's not impossible, though, as it would only take a couple of major mid-monsoon downpours to accomplish that feat.  This air mass is capable of producing that kind of rainfall, so let's see what happens between now and Thursday at midnight.  Otherwise, we can expect more of the same thing we've grown accustomed to as we head into August.

Check tabs above for other information...

a bit monotonous... (am.28.jul.14)>

*Update @ 8:28am... The fog is extremely thick, and it's really dark.  I'm starting to get some rain showers up here at my location, and there's been some thunder rumbling as well.  The latest satellite images show us on the very northern fringe of a huge area of rain encompassing about the southwestern two-thirds of Himachal, and most of Punjab.  This whole rain/thunder system isn't really moving, but it's pulsating, morphing, developing and dissipating around it's edges like some kind of organism.!

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It's cloudy early on this Monday morning, and the fog has been attempting to thicken up a bit during the past half hour or so.  My low temperature here in the upper part of town has been 64.9F (18.3C), and my rain gauge shows just a trace of precipitation overnight.  The humidity is currently 90%.

There was lightning visible off to the south and west at around 3:30-4:00am, and this morning's satellite pics show a large cluster of rain and embedded thunder not far south of us -- extending all the way into much of the eastern half of Punjab.  Upper level winds are extremely light, so this area of rain is drifting only slowly, but could develop further to the north this morning.  

Otherwise, we remain in the same situation we've been in for many days -- there is plenty of tropical moisture in the air, which will manifest in occasional periods of rain here in our neighborhood.  I'm a little stunned that we've still been unable to come up with any genuinely heavy rainfall by now, considering the fact that most of the computer model data has been painting an ugly picture; much uglier than we've seen in reality.  But -- there are only the most subtle changes to the overall pattern indicated throughout this week, so that means we could get dumped on at any time.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

reluctant rains... (pm.27.jul.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
High temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
Rainfall: 0.86" (2.2cm) 

We're in the midst of a period of light rain at the moment, one of several such episodes today.  There was actually a more robust period of rain during the late morning, but mostly it's been the drizzly, very light stuff that we've seen so much of since the middle of last week.  I'm wondering if a monkey peed in my rain gauge, because there was a bit larger amount there than seemed reasonable.  But I guess we'll never know for sure.  The other notable event of the day was the sunshine which popped out for a while late this afternoon... through brief, it was refreshing.

Daily rainfall rates the last few days have fallen short of what the data has been suggesting, and have been surprisingly less than what we would expect with this sort of pattern.  It's a mystery why that's been happening, but I'm going to hang tough and hold out for a continuing risk of a period or two of very heavy rainfall between now and about Wednesday.  As we know, we can suddenly get a massive dumping of 3-4" (7-10cm) quite easily during the middle of the monsoon season, and it can happen just when we start to give up on it.

There are four days left in the month of July, and we're still needing about 7-8" (18-20cm) of rain to end up with the normal/average amount.  It seemed we were on a near-certain course to reach that, until the slow-down in our rainfall rates the last few days.  It will be interesting to keep an eye on the rain gauge between now and Thursday.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST and other tabs above for more weather info.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

a short breather... (pm.26.jul.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
Rainfall: 0.15" (4mm)

It's a very grey and gloomy evening, with totally overcast skies and some patchy fog clinging to the higher mountain slopes, but there's no rain falling at the moment.  In fact, there has been very little light rain or drizzle since the late morning -- with all of our measurable rainfall for the day occurring before about 11:00am.  If we don't get something developing before midnight, today will go down in the books as the "least wet" day in a couple of weeks.

I'd like to say that today's drier conditions are a sign of things to come, but that's definitely not the case.  More than likely, today will turn out to be an aberration in the midst of a continuing active phase of this year's monsoon.  I mentioned this morning that the upper-level pattern is shifting a bit -- and that could be the reason for today's break in the action -- but all of the available data is pointing to an increasing potential for some moderate to heavy rain as we finish off the weekend and head through about the first half of next week.  I have a feeling we're going to get dumped on pretty good, at least once or twice, by the time Wednesday morning arrives.

Maybe we'll get surprised, but I doubt there will be much sunshine -- if any at all -- during the next five or six days.  If that's indeed the case, then our temperatures are going to stay mainly in the 63-70F (17-21C) range, which is fairly close to the norm for the dead-middle of the monsoon season.

Check the tabs above for the CURRENT FORECAST and other information.

water-weary... (am.26.jul.14)>

This Saturday morning features clouds, fog, drizzle and very light rain -- very similar to what was happening the last two mornings at this time.  We did get a rainless break which extended from yesterday during the mid-afternoon, throughout most of the night, with just a trace of rain at my location since last report.  I'm recording an overnight low temp of 63.3F (17.4C), while the humidity reading sits at 95%.

There are some readjustments and realignments of the upper-level wind pattern in progress -- turning the flow up there more to the north.  But in the lower levels, we continue to have a southeasterly flow which is still pumping a steady stream of tropical moisture into Himachal Pradesh.  Although I think it's possible that we could get some kind of partial clearing temporarily at some point during the next several days, we should remain socked in with clouds and occasional fog, for the most part.

Rainfall since Wednesday hasn't been very heavy, but it has been quite steady and persistent, with way more wet hours than dry ones.  There are still hints of a better chance of some heavier rain developing -- perhaps today, but most of the computer model data favors late tomorrow (Sun) through Tuesday.  With a saturated ground from these steady rains for days in a row, I am concerned about what might happen if we do end up getting a dumping of 3-4" (7-10cm) in a relatively short period of time.

The CURRENT FORECAST and UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY, along with other info, can be found on tabs above.

Friday, July 25, 2014

late july is like this... (pm.25.jul.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 63.7F (17.6C)
High temp: 66.2F (19.0C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.85" (2.2cm)

There are actually a few tiny breaks in an otherwise overcast sky this evening, with a few isolated small patches of fog as well.  Clouds, fog, drizzle, and periods of light to moderate rain occurred for most of the day -- until the mid-afternoon, when we've been able to dry out a bit.  Take a look (above) at what the thermometer did, or didn't do, today... when the humidity stays close to 100%, it's hard for the temperature to move very much.

We remain in the midst of a very active phase of the monsoon -- as evidenced by the pervasive cloudiness and fog during the past few days, along with these long and protracted periods of rain and drizzle.  These conditions can soon start to really wear on people, especially when they don't relent for days on end.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look likely that we'll be able to come up with much of break from all this, though there could be a few hours of dry weather and lower humidity (down to the 70-80% range) from time to time.

It appears that our risk of heavier rain will be increasing further as we head toward Sunday and Monday, with a couple of the computer models showing some truly huge rainfall amounts in our general area during the first part of the new week.  I'm still fairly confident that we'll pick up another 10" (25cm+) before the month of July comes to an end...

Check tabs above for other info.

in the soup... (am.25.jul.14)>

*Update @ 7:52am... It could just be temporary, but the rain has really picked up again in the past 20 minutes or so.  Raining moderately now.

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It's another totally cloudy morning with some patches of thick fog in the area, and a few sprinkles of rain as well.  We had a few periods of mainly light rain overnight, amounting to just 0.22" (5mm) in my gauge here in the upper part of town.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 64.2F (17.9C), and the humidity is currently 94%.

Tuesday marked the beginning of this latest phase of more active monsoon conditions, and since then, I've measured 4.22" (10.7cm) of rain at my location.  Apart from the very heavy downpour on Tuesday afternoon, most of it has come rather slowly and steadily, in the form of hours and hours of light to occasionally moderate rain.  It's really the first time this season that we are "in the soup", so to speak, with so much persistent cloudiness and fog -- but actually this is how it is supposed to be during this time of year.

There is no evidence of a significant retreat of deep, thick and rich tropical moisture during the next several days on any of the weather charts -- in fact, it looks like we're going to be dealing with an extended period of saturated or close to saturated conditions which will keep lots of clouds and fog around.  There could also be extended periods of rain developing at any time of the day or night, with that ever-present risk of some heavier rainfall amounts as well.  The latest data is now targeting Sunday through Tuesday for very heavy rains in our area, so it's still looking like this final week of July is going to be very wet...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

damp and soggy... (pm.24.jul.14)>

Thursday's stats: 

Low temp: 64.4F (18.0C)
High temp: 67.8F (19.9C)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.27" (3.2cm)

Our sky is totally overcast this evening, but the visibility is actually pretty good, with most of the lower clouds and patches of fog clinging only to the mountains to our north and east.  Today has been one of the few days this monsoon season during which there was absolutely ZERO sunshine -- and you can see that from the lack of temperature variation (stats above).  There is no rain falling at the moment, but we've had drizzle and some periods of light to moderate rain virtually all day, with just a few short breaks now and then.

Two things have surprised me during the past 36 to 48 hours or so:  1) The fact that the rain has been of generally light to moderate intensity, and 2)  The very long/extended duration of rain episodes.  I guess these two factors have balanced out, because we've still come up with some fairly respectable mid-monsoon rainfall totals the last couple of days -- with even heavier amounts down in Dharamsala, apparently.  Our air mass remains very close to the saturation point, with humidity readings in the 85-100% range recently.

A deep and rich southeasterly flow of moisture-laden air will continue to feed into our area during the next few days, so it's likely that we'll be continuing to deal with occasional waves of rain developing and redeveloping.  The big question is whether or not we'll be able to come up with some heavier rainfall totals here in the immediate McLeod Ganj vicinity.  I think the answer is YES, but it's very hard to say when that's going to happen -- perhaps soon, or maybe not until sometime this weekend.  It would be nice if the data/technology could give us more help with that...

CURRENT FORECAST and UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY info can be found on tabs above.

monsoon-ish... (am.24.jul.14)>

It's raining early this morning, as it has been doing nearly continuously since before 1:00pm yesterday afternoon.  Otherwise, we have cloudy skies and some areas of fog drifting around the area.  My rain gauge shows 0.73" (1.9cm) since about 8 o'clock last night, and that brings the total since yesterday at noon up to 1.54" (3.9cm)... which is really not all that much, considering the fact that the rain has barely stopped in the past 18 hours.  Temperature-wise, I've got an overnight low of 64.4F (18.0C), while the humidity has been mainly in the 90-100% range all night.

Southeasterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, combined with a more easterly flow toward the middle and upper levels are funneling massive amounts of tropical moisture along the front slopes of the mountain ranges of northern India, creating rather widespread rainfall.  Some areas further downhill from us have not had very much rain this monsoon season so far, but they are starting to get their share now.  There are very few changes to be seen in the overall weather pattern during the next several days, so at this point, it looks like there won't be much chance of this latest surge of monsoon conditions to retreat appreciably.  There will likely be some breaks and 'reset' hours here and there, but even then, the humidity should remain high, with lots of cloudiness and fog around.

Although the persistent and consistent rains of the past 18 hours have been mainly in the light to moderate category, a bout of heavier rain could occur at any time through the rest of the week and the weekend as well -- so again be aware of the potential for some washed out roads and localized landslides.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

the wetness... (pm.23.jul.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 66.2F (19.0C)
High temp: 70.9F (21.6C)
Rainfall: 0.81" (2.0cm) -- updated at 8:00pm

For one of the very few times this monsoon season, we are totally socked in with clouds and fog this evening as sunset approaches.  A light drizzle is falling... and we've had pretty much continuous light to moderate rain since very early this afternoon.  Amounts have not been heavy, at least not at my location in the upper part of town, but it has been a foggy and wet afternoon, to say the least.  Humidity has been close to 100% since about 1:00pm.

A deep flow of moisture-laden air from the east and southeast has overtaken us today, and at least according to the data I'm digging through, should keep us close to the saturation point the vast majority of the remainder of this week.  Wave after wave of moisture will be running up and against our mountain slopes, and that's going to keep us in line for numerous periods of rain (which could be on the heavy side at times) all the way into the weekend, and perhaps until about Tuesday of next week.  There should be some welcome breaks in the midst of this wet period, but thick fog and rain showers will probably never be more than a few hours away.

Rainfall amounts in the 10-12" (25-30cm) range shouldn't be hard to come by during the next five to six days -- and that will put us in a position to end the month of July very near or perhaps a bit above normal.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.

conditions assembling... (am.23.jul.14)>

Sky conditions have been so variable and changeable recently that it's hard to keep track -- but we have partly cloudy skies at this moment, just before the sun attempts to peek above the Dhauladhars.  There was some lightning around 4-430am, but at least at my location on Tushita Road here in the upper part of town, there has been no measurable rainfall since last report.  I'm recording a low temp of 66.2F (19.0C), and the current humidity reading is 79%.

We're still in the midst of a slow, tedious, and rather complicated resurgence of deeper tropical moisture and atmospheric conditions which will eventually lead to the next phase of a more active monsoon.  Yesterday's afternoon downpours delivered the heaviest rainfall since last Wednesday, and I'll be surprised if we don't see that trend toward heavier 24 hour rainfall totals continuing during the remainder of this week.  For the first time this season, a deep east-southeasterly flow throughout all but the very highest layers of the atmosphere is developing -- and that's usually a very favorable heavy rain pattern for us.

Once the doses of heavier rain start coming, they should continue on and off through the weekend and beyond.  It's normal to get about 12-18 hours of "reset" time after a particularly heavy dumping -- but it's definitely looking like a wet ending to the month of July.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

surging again... (pm.22.jul.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 66.2F (19.0C)
High temp: 73.6F (23.1C)
Rainfall: 1.82" (4.6cm)

We have a variety of mainly mid- and high-level cloudiness across the area this evening, but not much low clouds and/or fog at the moment.  The sun managed to hold on pretty well until about 10 o'clock this morning, but then the clouds and fog thickened up, and some heavy rain showers developed.  Most of today's rainfall occurred between 1:00 and 4:00pm, with a couple of very heavy downpours between about 2:00 and 3:30pm.  The total I measured in the upper part of town (see stats above) was the largest since last Wednesday.

The substantial dumping we experienced today is a preview of the surging tropical moisture and return to more active monsoon conditions that are now underway.  Day after day I complain about the woeful inconsistency between computer models -- and that continues -- but as the mid- and upper-level flow turns more to the east and southeast, we'll be seeing the average moisture content of our air mass continue to increase.  Right now it's looking like we'll see significant and even notably heavy rainfall amounts each 24 hour period throughout the rest of this week... and probably into next week as well.

It's still kind of amazing to me that there has been so little fog and periods of 90-100% humidity this monsoon season up til now -- but I am almost certain that we're not going to remain so lucky for much longer.

The UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY and CURRENT FORECAST can be found on tabs at the top of this page.

transition mode... (am.22.jul.14)>

Skies are partly cloudy and hazy early this morning, with a humidity reading of 82%.  The overnight low temperature here in the upper part of town was 66.4F (19.1C), which is the warmest minimum I've recorded in about ten days.  As far as I can tell, there was no rainfall during the night.

We're now into a transitional period which will take us from a weaker phase of monsoon conditions back into a stronger/more active phase.  The thermodynamic energy of the atmosphere is building already, and as more moisture arrives from the south and east throughout all layers of this air mass, we should see a better and better chance of more widespread and long-lasting rains developing in our area.  That could happen as early as mid-day today, or it could hold off until sometime tomorrow (Wed) or tomorrow evening -- computer models are still refusing to agree.  At any rate, we should see deteriorating conditions as we head into the middle of the week.

Although it won't rain continuously, the overall pattern looks like a very wet one all the way into and through the weekend... and even into at least early next week.  It still seems that we won't have too much trouble achieving a July rainfall total that is very close to normal/average -- or even above.

CURRENT FORECAST details for the coming five days are available on the tab above.

Monday, July 21, 2014

poised for changes... (pm.21.jul.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)
High temp: 73.6F (23.1C)
Rainfall: 0.29" (7mm) -- updated @ 8:00pm 

It's mostly cloudy with some patches of fog in the area at the moment, along with some random sprinkles left over from our late afternoon rain showers.  Today, as expected, has featured a lot of variability between clouds, sun and patchy fog -- with most of the shower activity holding off until about 4:00pm.  Even then, we've (so far) had another day of relatively light amounts of rainfall.

We're back into a very interesting position... poised on the brink of a fresh surge of stronger and more active monsoon conditions which should be moving in sometime during the coming 24 to 36 hours or so.  There's still an irritating lack of consistency and agreement between the various sets of computer model data, but the basic atmospheric moisture parameters are already showing increases in progress -- and that means it is just a matter of time before that manifests in heavier rain development here along the mountain slopes of northern India.  At this point, it seems the ball is already rolling.

The most widespread and persistently saturated conditions of this season should set in as we head toward mid-week, and those conditions may not relent for several days to come -- at least.  That means we can be braced for a lot of fog and periods of very heavy rainfall by Wednesday or Thursday, which is actually pretty much what SHOULD be happening during the latter third of July.

The CURRENT FORECAST and other more specific info can be found on tabs above. 

temporarily calmer... (am.21.jul.14)>

The sun is playing hide-and-seek with the clouds as it rises over the Dhauladhars on this Monday morning.  There was a bit of drizzle and a few sprinkles of rain during the predawn, but not enough to measure in the rain gauge.  I'm recording an overnight low of 64.8F (18.2C), and the humidity reading is just above 80%.

Rainfall at my location in the upper part of town has measured only 2.31" (5.9cm) since Thursday, so we're definitely back into a relatively weak phase of the monsoon -- temporarily.  Of course we've had at least one or two periods of showers each and every day, but amounts haven't been as heavy as they were for several days in a row earlier last week.  It's always very interesting to watch these ebbs and flows, surges and retreats that cycle up and down and back and forth during the monsoon season.

It looks to me like this calmer period is not going to last much longer, as there is already evidence of a moistening of the atmosphere from the surface into the upper-levels by this evening, and especially during Tuesday.  That may not initially trigger widespread and heavier rainfall, but it's going to set the stage for that to happen as we move toward the middle of the week.  The data from late last night and this morning is pointing to extremely heavy rainfall amounts over our area -- and virtually all of Himachal Pradesh -- by Thursday/Friday, if not before.  We shall watch.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

a general ebb... (pm.20.jul.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 71.4F (21.9C)
Rainfall: 0.20" (5mm)

There's a mix of clouds, light fog and some sunshine this evening, and I've actually been surprised at the amount of fog we've had today.  Rain showers, on the other hand, were nearly nonexistent until about 4:30pm -- but there have been several brief light to moderate showers since then.  I'll be checking the rain gauge later this evening, but as of now, it seems that we may have our smallest daily total in more than a week.  There were some glimpses of sunshine during the first half of the day (and again just now), but not enough to get all that excited about.

As we've been talking about recently, rainfall totals the last two or three days have been much lower than we were experiencing for several days previous to that, and it will be interesting to see how long this general ebb in monsoon wetness will continue.  The various computer model solutions are almost laughable in their failure to come to any sort of a decisive solution or agreement on what's going to unfold between now and the middle of this week.  However, some of the most reliable parameters available are pointing to a resurgence of deeper tropical moisture on the way as early as tomorrow (Mon) night, with the atmospheric moisture content expected to increase steadily as we head through the week.  One model is projecting some very heavy rainfall right on top of us during the Wednesday through Saturday period.

When all the stats are tabulated, the 20th of July through the 20th of August usually turns out to be the very peak of the monsoon season each year, when we end up getting the heaviest rains and most persistent saturated/foggy conditions.  Here we go -- let's see what 2014 will bring...

Get CURRENT FORECAST and other information on tabs at the top of the page. 

variety prevails... (am.20.jul.14)>

It's partly cloudy with 75% humidity as the sun comes up this Sunday morning, and I'm recording an overnight low temp of 63.3F (17.4C).  There has only been a trace of rain in my gauge since last evening's report, though there were some scattered thundershowers around the area between about 8:00 and 10:00pm last night.

We've seen an easing of daily rainfall rates recently, after the massive dumpings during the early and middle parts of last week.  Still, we've managed to pick up significant amounts each 24 hour period, which is pretty much the norm for this time of year.  There's been a slight retreat of deep monsoon moisture occurring since Friday, and it looks like that trend will continue today through Monday -- allowing us some periods of sunshine, and keeping any truly persistent fog and long-lasting heavy rain away.  We could still get hit with a decent period of showers/thundershowers, however, so it's a good idea to keep the rain gear within reach.

Computer model data is extremely inconsistent and indecisive about the next wave of deep tropical moisture, but to my eyes, it looks like it could begin to affect us by Monday night or Tuesday.  That should set us up for another extended period of saturated conditions with the potential for some very large rainfall totals as we head toward the latter half of this week.

Check tabs above for more useful weather info...

Saturday, July 19, 2014

very wet week ending... (pm.19.jul.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 68.4F (20.2C)
Rainfall: 0.73" (1.9cm)

We can call it partly sunny this evening, near the end of a day which has featured plenty of variety.  There were glimpses of sun early this morning, with a good amount of sun late this afternoon and evening -- but in between, we had lots of cloudiness, patchy fog, and some relatively brief but healthy rain showers (and thunder).  The vast majority of the rain occurred in the noon to 4:00pm range.

By just after midnight tonight, it will be exactly one week since we moved into a period of much more typical monsoon conditions than we were dealing with during the first twelve days of July.  I've measured nearly 16 inches of rain during that time, which could end up being one of the largest weekly totals of the entire monsoon season when all is said and done.  Although there have been subtle reductions in the average moisture content of our air mass during the past 24 hours or so, conditions are going to remain favorable for scattered/occasional rain and thundershower development as we head into the first part of the new week.  We may even see a bit of a warm-up during the next couple of days, after some unusually cool temps since Thursday.

It still looks like the next surge of really deep and rich tropical moisture will come knocking sometime late Monday or Tuesday, and that's going to reintroduce the likelihood of some long-lasting, consistent and persistent heavy rainfall for the middle and latter parts of next week.  We're now getting into the very heart of the monsoon season, according to historical and climatological records, so that's to be expected.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST and keep track of the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY on tabs above.

a strong showing... (am.19.jul.14)>

At the moment it's partly cloudy, but that could change before I am finished typing this.  We've had some light rain overnight -- my gauge shows 0.19" (5mm) -- and the low temperature here in the upper part of town was 62.2F (16.8C).  Humidity is currently 77%.

We've had about 15 inches (38cm) of rain in the past week, which is a really impressive total.  The heaviest deluges occurred between the very early morning hours of Sunday and early Sunday afternoon, and between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  But -- we've had several other downpours and periods of moderate to heavy rain during the past week that have combined to put us ahead of the curve in terms of rainfall for the month of July.

There are indications that our daily rainfall rates may be lower between now and Monday, as the deepest monsoon moisture pulls away temporarily, and as the general dynamics of our atmosphere calm down a bit.  However, I still think we'll be in for occasional showers that could produce some fairly hefty rainfall amounts between now and Monday, so don't pack away the umbrella.  Most of the computer model data shows the next strong surge of classic monsoon ingredients on the way by Tuesday of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

Friday, July 18, 2014

clean and green... (pm.18.jul.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 70.7F (21.5C)
Rainfall: 1.03" (2.6cm) -- updated at 8:05pm

There are lots of clouds around this evening, but mainly of the mid- and high-level variety -- so the visibility is very good in this air mass that has been washed clean by this afternoon's rains.  There were wild swings between clouds, sun and patchy fog this morning, along with some isolated very light rain showers.  But it became mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy toward noon, and remained that way as more substantial showers began to develop around 2:00pm.  Just after 3:00pm we started to get some heavier rain showers and thunder, which ended up delivering a healthy rainfall total by the time things started calming down just before 5:00pm.

We've got a rather unusual upper-air pattern developing across northern India, providing us with a northwesterly flow in the higher levels of the atmosphere which should hold fast until early next week.  That's confusing the computer models, apparently, and creating a variety of solutions over the course of the next five or six days.  At the same time, it does look like we'll continue to see a bit of a lessening of the overall moisture content of our air mass between now and late Monday.

In my opinion, we're going to continue to deal with a very good chance of occasional rain shower development right through the weekend, with some locally heavy downpours possible -- although I think our average humidity levels will be lower, and the percentage of sunshine higher in the midst of it all.  There are indications of a dramatic resurgence of deep and juicy tropical moisture, along with a better chance of persistently rainy conditions by Tuesday or Wednesday.  It's hard to see a below normal July rainfall total at this point...

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

a variable outlook... (am.18.jul.14)>

Both clouds and sunshine are on the scene early this morning, and there were a few sprinkles of rain at my place on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center just recently.  The rain gauge shows barely enough to measure -- perhaps 0.01" (less than 1mm) overnight, and I've had a low temp of 63.7F (17.6C).  The humidity reading is 77%.

The really thick tropical moisture that has been with us for most of this week has been attempting to retreat a bit since last evening.  Data shows that the average moisture content of our air mass will be slightly lower through the weekend until about Monday afternoon/evening.  This may not mean a lot for us, as a couple of the computer models are still showing some significant development of rain showers across our area during the next few days anyway.  I think we're deep enough into the season now that we won't see more than a very temporary easing of monsoon conditions now and then, with moderate to heavy rainfall never more than a day or two away.  Even now as I type, thick fog has suddenly drifted up against my hillside!

It seems to me that we've had more glimpses of sunshine than we normally are able to enjoy by the latter half of July -- in spite of the fact that our total rainfall for the month is now running comfortably ahead of the normal pace.  The way it looks, we should easily end the month with normal to above normal rainfall.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

lots of variability... (pm.17.jul.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 70.7F (21.5C)
Rainfall: 0.35" (9mm)

It's really a gorgeous evening out there, with mainly mid- and high clouds, and very little low cloudiness or fog right now.  We've had some major variability in conditions today, with some decent peeks of sunshine this morning and again during the evening hours.  However, there have also been some periods of thick clouds and fog which yielded a few mainly light rain showers off and on throughout the day.  Still, the total rainfall since midnight has been small compared to daily totals since Sunday.

The heavy rains of the last several days have cooled our temperatures down gradually -- and today's high temp at my location was the coolest of the past twelve days.  This cooler air mass is also not quite as packed with thermodynamic energy as it was just 36 hours ago or so, and that's kept the shower development much more tame.  It looks like we're just now starting on a trend toward an overall less moisture-packed environment, with average humidity levels expected to drop a bit between now and Sunday.  That doesn't mean rain chances will totally come to an end though -- we could still get some significant rain development on occasion right through the weekend.  It seems likely that a few sunny breaks will happen now and then as well.

The next surge of deep monsoon moisture won't wait long to come back... possibly arriving on Monday or Tuesday... setting us up for more saturated conditions and long-lasting heavy rains for much of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are available on the tab above.

not much improvement... (am.17.jul.14)>

Skies are cloudy, and a light drizzle is falling very early on this Thursday morning.  There was an extended period of rain overnight, but it was quite light -- only registering 0.17" (4mm) in my rain gauge here in the upper part of town.  I'm recording a low temperature of 63.5F (17.5C), with humidity hovering right around 80%.

The UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY on the tab (above) lists the daily rainfall amounts (from midnight-midnight) since the 1st of June, and you can see how impressive the rains have been during the past several days, and how large the totals for the month and the monsoon season are becoming.  Check it out.

Computer models continue to be all over the place with precipitation development and amounts as we head toward the weekend, but I think the main issue is that there is not going to be any long-lasting withdrawal/retreat of this current air mass in place.  There are subtle hints of some kind of a drying trend sometime between late Friday and perhaps early Tuesday, but it is not nearly definitive enough to risk taking out the probability of occasional periods of rain showers (and thunder at times).  I think there is still a good chance of at least a couple of waves of moderate to heavy rainfall during the coming days as well, which could occur virtually anytime.

We've still not really reached the point of being socked in with 100% humidity and fog for hours and hours straight -- but that kind of scenario will come eventually as we press deeper into the season, so probably best not to worry too much about it!  It's nice that we've been able to squeeze out at least a little sunshine on most days.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

surpassing july norms... (pm.16.jul.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall since 7am: 1.14" (2.9cm)
24 hour rainfall total: 5.29" (13.4cm)

The play between clouds, fog, and the setting sun is very dramatic and quite beautiful this evening, with changes happening almost on a minute-by-minute basis as I type.  It's an interesting end to a very wet 24 hour period, with a huge rainfall total being racked up between about 9:30pm last night, and early this afternoon.  It seems the very heaviest rainfall rates (at least at my location) occurred between 9:30pm and about 1:00am, then again between 4:30am and 8:30am. -- if anyone cares about such details.  For the second time since the wee hours of Sunday morning, we've come up with a monumental dose of rain.  The last few days have now put us ABOVE normal for July, after a rather sluggish start to the month.

I've been going cross-eyed looking at the weather charts and data this evening, as there is so much inconsistency between the various models' projections for the next five days or so.  Computer crunching of weather data is notoriously inept here along the front slopes of the mountains of northern India, and even more so during this time of year.  Suffice it to say that deep, rich, juicy tropical moisture is going to be lingering precariously close to us for the duration -- keeping us vulnerable to the development of rather widespread areas of rain anytime of the day or night.  With humidity levels now averaging above 80%, foggy periods will be frequent as well, in spite of some sunshine breaks now and then.

Temperature-wise, we've now settled into the typical zone for monsoon season -- not venturing very far outside of the 63-75F (17-24C) range for days on end.

Keep track of CURRENT FORECAST details and other information by clicking on tabs at the top of the page.

the latest deluge... (am.16.jul.14)>

There was 4.15" (10.5cm) in my rain gauge when I checked it at about 6:50am -- but I'm sure that amount has increased significantly just in the past 20 minutes, since it continues to rain fairly heavily.  New development of heavy rain showers began very quickly between 9 and 10 o'clock last evening, and as far as I know, it has been raining for most of the night, with some intense thunder and lightning at times as well.  Otherwise it's cloudy and foggy early this morning as humidity hovers around 95%.  I'm recording an overnight low (and current temp) of 64.9F (18.3C).

Satellite images are showing a massive area of rain and thunderstorms covering nearly all of Himachal Pradesh, as well as the southwestern half of Jammu & Kashmir.  It looks like a lot of people are waking up to a deluge this morning.  We had about a 16 hour period of relatively calm and quiet weather yesterday, but we knew it wasn't going to last long.  This air mass is packed full of deep, rich, tropical moisture, and as it gets lifted against the mountain slopes, it's being wrung out right on top of us.

The best time frame for more waves of heavy rainfall will continue through Friday, with one computer model showing some impressive rains into Saturday as well.  There will probably be more breaks in the action from time to time, but conditions will remain favorable for these classic monsoon conditions to develop and redevelop for most of the remainder of this week.  Remember to be aware of the potential for some landslides and washed-out roads around the area!!

CURRENT FORECAST details are on the tab above.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

bracing for the next round... (pm.15.jul.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 65.3F (18.5C)
High temp: 73.4F (23.0C)
Rainfall: 0.41" (1.0cm)

There's a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine as we head toward sunset this evening -- with a few very light sprinkles around the area as well.  Although there have been a few brief and very light rain showers since this morning's report, we didn't add anything measurable to our daily total (above) which occurred during the predawn.  Humidity has been in the 78-95% range all day, which was enough to produce some patchy fog at times -- otherwise the day has turned out brighter than expected.

The thermodynamic batteries of this atmosphere are apparently recharging themselves after the two or three periods of very heavy rainfall we've endured since the wee hours of Sunday morning.  That's a good thing -- it's nice to get a short break before the next waves of intense rainfall develop.  It's hard to say exactly when that will happen, but all the computer model data points to peak saturation between later tonight and Friday, so it seems very likely that we'll be seeing some persistent moderate to heavy rain development occurring during that time frame, probably coming in a few different waves.

A slight retreat of deep tropical moisture may occur temporarily starting this weekend, but I think we'll still be having some healthy downpours on a daily basis, which could occur anytime of the day or night.  The latest extended range data is showing a very active final ten days of July, by the way...

CURRENT FORECAST details and other information can be found on tabs above.

plenty more to come... (am.15.jul.14)>

We're actually getting some peeks of sunshine in the midst of clouds and patchy fog early this morning, but there has been some light rain and drizzle within the past half hour as well.  My rain gauge shows an additional 0.41" (1.0cm) of rain overnight -- and most of that fell during the hour or two before dawn.  The low temp at my location in the upper part of town was 65.3F (18.5C), and humidity stands at 88%.

Genuine monsoon conditions have been incrementally ramping up since very late Saturday night, and it looks like we could be poised to pick up even heavier rainfall during the coming few days.  This latest surge of moisture is still arriving, so we can probably expect more extended periods of nearly saturated conditions -- which will include some thick fog and long-lasting rains -- all the way through Friday.  If we do get some sunny breaks, they'll probably be very brief.

After more than 8 inches (20.3cm) of rain in the last couple of days, the slopes of our hillsides are already getting unstable, and a few minor landslides have occurred.  If/when we get another round of very heavy rain, it's only going to compound the threat of washouts and more landslides.  Keep that in mind.

CURRENT FORECAST info the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

Monday, July 14, 2014

reality has set in... (pm.14.jul.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall: 1.92" (4.9cm) -- updated at 8:00pm

We have clouds, haze, and some light fog across the area this evening, as well as some scattered light rain showers.  It was nice to see some glimpses of sunshine this morning, but the clouds really thickened up quickly during the late morning, leading to the development of some light showers shortly after 12:30pm.  Those showers became heavier as the afternoon wore on, and you can see (above) that we ended up with a very hefty rainfall total for the day.  About a quarter-inch of that total occurred during the overnight hours, actually.  Needless to say, humidity has been pretty close to the saturation point -- in the 85-100% range -- throughout the day.

All of last week we were anticipating this, and it has taken shape very dramatically.  The moisture content of our air mass has finally reached normal for this stage of the monsoon season, and we've had about 7.5 inches (19.1cm) of rain in the past 36 hours!  It still looks like we may have only scratched the surface of what we might expect during the remainder of this week.  Computer models are projecting even better ingredients coming together for thick fog and periods of heavy rainfall lasting all the way through Friday.  We'll likely get some breaks between extended downpours, but I doubt that we'll see much of a drop in humidity levels.

Right now there are hints of a slight retreat of these full-on monsoon conditions over the weekend, but I'm not putting a lot of stock in that just yet.

As always, you can check the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY and the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tabs at the top of the page.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

an onslaught... (pm.13.jul.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)
High temp: 73.2F (22.9C)
Rainfall since midnight: 5.81" (14.8cm)

There's been some sunshine in the midst of leftover clouds late this afternoon and evening, but we seem to be trending back toward mostly cloudy skies at the moment.  What a day it has been!  Hands down, we've had the heaviest rain of our young monsoon season, coming in several doses starting during the very early hours of the morning, and continuing until about 3:00pm or so.  My total in the upper part of McLeod (above) is impressive enough -- but what about 9.3" (23.6cm) reported from a very reliable source near Norbulingka?  These are some of the heaviest totals we ever get during a 24 hour period during the monsoon months, and it has certainly got us on track after a fairly lackluster performance this year up til now.

It is always very interesting to watch how the various computer models handle the ebbs and flows of deep monsoon moisture here along the front slopes of the mountains -- and I have to say, even the most aggressive model during the past few days greatly underestimated the amount of rainfall we've received since the wee hours of this morning.  There is just no amount of technology that can really grasp the kinds of dynamics we deal with here in our part of the world.

The headline for the coming week is: MONSOON IS ACTIVE.  We've got even deeper tropical moisture creeping into our area during the coming several days, and it's likely that we'll be dealing with a few more waves of prolonged moderate to heavy rains between now and the end of this week.  Humidity will average out much higher than it did last week, and I think the changes are going to be quite noticeable -- especially with regard to getting laundry to dry out.  Also, be aware of road conditions if you have travel plans... we can now start talking about potential landslides and road washouts, which are part of life this time of year.

Get CURRENT FORECAST and other info on the tabs at the top of the page.

grace period ending... (am.13.jul.14)>

*Update @ 1:48pm... We've had numerous moderate to heavy rain showers with only brief breaks in between since mid-morning.  My rain gauge was nearly overflowing when I just arrived home to check -- 5.25" (13.3cm) since midnight.!!

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It is mostly cloudy and hazy early this morning, though there are a few brighter patches in the overcast.  We've had quite a night in terms of rainfall -- I'm measuring 2.17" (5.5cm) -- most of which occurred during the wee hours of the morning.  I was awake between 2:00 and 3:00am, and it was raining heavily, but with very little thunder.  The low temperature at my place was 66.0F (18.9C), and the humidity is way up at 91%.

What we experienced overnight is a preview of things to come as this new week unfolds.  We're easing into a much more active phase of the monsoon, which is going to feature much higher humidity levels, fog, more pervasive cloudiness, and occasional periods of heavy rainfall.  I've been mentioning the discrepancies between computer models, but last night's heavy rain indicates that one of the more usually reliable models is not on top of developments.  This more moisture-packed air mass is arriving earlier, as projected by a couple of the other models.

Right now it looks like the most saturated conditions with the best chance of very heavy rain will occur between Tuesday and Friday -- but that's a flexible window, as quite honestly we could get a prolonged dumping virtually anytime.  It appears that our recent 'grace period' is rapidly coming to an end...

CURRENT FORECAST details and other information can be found on the tabs at the top of the page.

Saturday, July 12, 2014

rainfall deficit... (pm.12.jul.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 68.0F (20.0C)
High temp: 75.7F (24.3C)
Rainfall: trace -- as of 4:30pm

It's quite hazy this evening, with a few breaks in the overcast.  Our atmosphere has been a bit more murky today, with thicker clouds and even some fleeting periods of fog from late morning into mid-day -- and that's thanks to humidity readings which averaged close to 70-75%.  Despite that higher moisture content, we only had a few sprinkles and brief light rain showers today (along with a bit of rumbling thunder during the mid-afternoon) which didn't register a measurement in my rain gauge in the upper part of town.  Our high temp was not as warm as expected, due to the very limited sunshine.

Well, it's been fairly obvious today that the moisture content of our air mass is on the increase, but this is only the very beginning of what we can expect before Tuesday or Wednesday rolls around.  The month of July has been a piece of cake so far, in terms of having to deal with genuine monsoon conditions, but it still looks like we're going to be in for a dose of reality fairly soon.  There are some bizarre and strange discrepancies between the various computer models' resolutions -- with some indicating heavy rainfall developing in the next 24 hours or so, and others continuing to delay the real action until as late as Tuesday evening.  It will be interesting to watch.

The average rainfall for the month of July is well over 30" (76cm), and as we approach mid-month, we are running very far behind the pace.  You can keep track of the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY on the tab above.

The CURRENT FORECAST is also always available on a tab at the top of the page.

weird and unusual... (am.12.jul.14)>

*Update @ 10:21am...  Well lo and behold, there is some fog trying to develop late this morning, as the humidity reading creeps a bit higher (now 74%).  Looks like some of that long-awaited deeper moisture is teasing us.

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We have a mix of hazy sun and a few clouds early this Saturday morning.  I'm recording a very mild overnight low temp of 68.0F (20.0C) here in the upper part of town, and there has been only a trace of rainfall since last evening's report, in the form of some sprinkles and very light showers that lingered until dark.  Humidity this morning is 62%.

I've been back in McLeod for six full days now, and I have yet to see any fog.  That is almost impossible to believe, considering that we're now getting into the middle of July.  Though we've been getting some showers every day, conditions are still really not very monsoon-like at all, as the average daily humidity is remaining in the 55-75% range.  It SHOULD be in the 80-100% range on a daily basis by now.

This morning's data contains some discrepancies and inconsistencies, as it has all week long, with regard to a resurgence of more genuine monsoon conditions in the coming days.  All we can do is just be prepared to continue dodging these mainly afternoon showers/thundershowers this weekend -- and be braced for an increasing chance of fog development and some potentially longer-lasting and heavier rains as the new week unfolds.  As I've been mentioning, our temperatures will max out a few degrees above normal for this time of year until the clouds/fog begin to exert more dominance.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.