Monday, April 20, 2015

a bit on edge... (am.20.apr.15)>

We have mostly cloudy skies early on this Monday morning, and there has been a very light rain shower here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center in the past 20 minutes or so.  Although there were a couple of periods of very gusty winds, sprinkles of rain and a rumble of thunder or two, my rain gauge is showing nothing measurable to report.  Temperatures have remained very mild overnight -- I'm recording a low temp of 67.1F (19.5C), and it's currently 69.0F (20.6C).

A ripple of energy in the upper-atmosphere is slowing moving from Afghanistan into northern Pakistan this morning.  It has generated a few waves of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it, but almost all of that action has remained to our north and northeast.  We've literally been on the very southern fringe during the past 12 to 18 hours.  The latest data continues to show us barely to the south of the main shower/thunderstorm development today into tonight -- so honestly, it could go either way for us.  We'll probably see a little of everything today -- clouds, some sun, and that potential for a thunderstorm to develop overhead at any time.

Most of the moisture and upper-level energy associated with this system will fizzle out by tomorrow (Tues) morning, but there could still be an isolated thundershower or two around the area though tomorrow afternoon.  The rest of the week is looking marginally unstable -- with a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with a concern nearly everyday of a bit of shower/thunder development over the mountains during the afternoon hours.  Temperatures should remain fairly close to normal for the season throughout this coming week...

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