Monday, April 27, 2015

a game of variety... (am.27.apr.15)>

There is some haze hanging in the air, and a few clouds in the eastern sky, otherwise it's calm and quiet early this morning.  I recorded no rainfall overnight, along with a low temperature of 58.3F (15.6C).  It's currently 60.6F (15.9C) as the sun comes up.

I've been talking about a changing upper-level pattern for this new week, and it's taking shape right now.  In fact, it seems that dynamic ingredients throughout all layers of the atmosphere are shifting around, which should make for several days of fluctuating conditions.  The first thing to watch is an upper-level disturbance pusing in from the west-northwest later today, which will provide us with some scattered shower and thundershower development between this afternoon and Tuesday evening.  Models the last 12 hours are looking much less aggressive with the scope and scale of this potential precipitation event -- but keep in mind the risk of thundershower development nonetheless.  We should be dealing with a mix of hazy sun and clouds today otherwise.

Apart from a slight risk of a PM thundershower, Wednesday is looking fine at the moment, but then another disturbance brings another chance of showers and thunder on Thursday... perhaps lingering into Friday.  Our temperatures all week will respond quickly to sunshine (heading upward), but will also crash quickly in the event of a period of rain.  That means it would be a good idea to have a variety of clothing available if you're going to be out trekking or otherwise away from shelter.  Looking way ahead to the weekend -- the risk of isolated mainly PM thunder stays in the forecast, with temps just a shade below normal for early May.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details.