Tuesday, June 23, 2015

a convergence... (am.23.jun.15)>

It is mostly cloudy at the moment, the temp is 63.5F (17.5C), and the humidity is 55%.  A period of showers and thunder which began around 4:00am has just recently come to an end -- but it delivered only 0.10" (3mm) to my rain gauge here in the upper part of town.  I'm recording an overnight low of 59.5F (15.3C).

That one-tenth of an inch of rain early this morning is exactly the same amount we received yesterday between about noon and 2:00pm -- so though we've been receiving some random showers the last couple of days, amounts have been fairly light.  It certainly looks like that's going to change shortly, however, as ingredients start coming together to bring a period of heavy to very heavy rainfall to a large part of Himalayan north India.

The most juicy batch of tropical moisture of this pre-monsoon season continues to creep northward, as not one but TWO dynamic features converge on us.  The first is an upper-level disturbance dropping in from the west-northwest that will contain significantly cooler air aloft -- the second is a low pressure circulation which will push northeastward from the Arabian Sea, bringing an even more concentrated batch of tropical moisture.  There will be more of this isolated to scattered thundershower activity in our area through today and tonight, but it's still looking like Wednesday through Thursday night hold the best potential for some periods of very heavy rainfall.  The timing is different between the various computer models -- some targetting Wednesday, while some target Thursday -- but it looks like we'll be getting a lot of rain sometime during that time frame.

We should see some degree of improvement starting on Friday, with relatively quieter weather expected over the weekend.  BUT -- moisture will be on the increase again by Monday with rain chances on the rise.

Get the latest forecast on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.  And of course keep on top of AWAITING MONSOON 2015 as well.