Thursday, June 25, 2015

our new reality... (pm.25.jun.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall since 6:30am: 0.13" (3mm)
Rainfall since midnight: 1.03" (2.6cm)

The sun is shining down in the valley, but we are socked in with very low-hanging clouds here along the mountain slopes in McLeod Ganj this evening.  I used the term 'variable cloudiness' this morning for today's forecast on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK -- it's a term I dislike, but I'm not sure how else we could have described our sky conditions today.  It has indeed fluctuated sharply between thick clouds and almost full sunshine at times, keeping us guessing from hour to hour.  Today's measurable rainfall was confined to the morning before 8:30am, with only some light sprinkles this evening -- at least up til now.

A new reality is upon us, as we make our way through the first 24 hour period since the India Met Department declared the official monsoon arrival for the entire north Indian Himalayan region.  It's been a less-than-impressive start, honestly, as the conditions we've been dealing with are very borderline.  But I have learned over the years that the movement of that monsoon onset line toward the north and northwest between mid June and early July is a bit on the arbitrary side.  Whatever -- the IMD has declared that the monsoon is here, so that's that.

But we've actually got a turn to more stable conditions on the way as the weekend approaches.  There is still a decent chance of some isolated thundershower development overnight and perhaps on Friday -- but then it seems that the risk of thundershowers will be very small on both Saturday and Sunday, as warmer air invades in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  There are going to be cloud issues to deal with, probably, but any isolated shower action should be very short-lived, and confined to the PM hours.

Tropical moisture isn't going to be lurking very far to our south and southeast -- and it looks like it will be moving back in our direction by Sunday night into Monday.  That will again increase our risk of periods of rain and thunder, as humidity levels rise higher.